The Official 2021 Los Angeles Angels Minor League Stats, Reports & Scouting Thread

[Inside Pitch]

54 minutes ago, Second Base said:

The way you're describing him, it's almost like he's a prospect. 

Yep.... A prospect with established skill sets and faults who made both clear in his brief time at the MLB. 

Only thing left for him to do is to work on the faults.

[Inside Pitch]

17 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

I don't know, but holy hell the Tri-Cities Dust Devils are incredibly void of talent in the lineup.

Rivas was good, but that's it. With no Jordyn Adams that team doesn't have any star talent from the game I attended. 

Then the very next day they got clobbered for 20 runs. Though to be fair, the Everett Aqua Sox have 13 of the Mariners top-30 prospects on that squad. 

I think the Angels may be done aggressively promoting guys, there are fewer teams, less levels.  They also seem to still be in the process of adding organization types.

[T.G.]

Many of you were anxious for Adell to get promoted to the big club last year.  Once he started to struggle, many of you bailed on him.  He's 22 frickin' years old.  He's working on things. It's funny that many of you don't have the patience to see if he can work out the things he struggles with. 

At the same time - the Paris hype has begun and it's the same old thing... "Promote him now!"  Sure... and if he struggles, the AW faithful will turn on him too.  Some of you must have severe case of whiplash. I get it.  It's what fans do.  It's just funny sometimes.

What's even funnier is that whenever a player struggles, many here want to trade them. Always when their value is lowest. 

Not everyone can be Acuna or Tatis.  That's OK! 

[Inside Pitch]

7 minutes ago, True Grich said:

Many of you were anxious for Adell to get promoted to the big club last year.  Once he started to struggle, many of you bailed on him.  He's 22 frickin' years old.  He's working on things. It's funny that many of you don't have the patience to see if he can work out the things he struggles with. 

At the same time - the Paris hype has begun and it's the same old thing... "Promote him now!"  Sure... and if he struggles, the AW faithful will turn on him too.  Some of you must have severe case of whiplash. I get it.  It's what fans do.  It's just funny sometimes.

What's even funnier is that whenever a player struggles, many here want to trade them. Always when their value is lowest. 

Not everyone can be Acuna or Tatis.  That's OK! 

Not sure where you see me in this analysis. but I was really vocal Adell wasn't ready last year... and for me, nothing has changed. 

He's the same exact guy he was when people were clamoring for him to be brought up.  The one thing I will say is I'm not fond of his showboating before he's established himself, but that's just me and I always hear Jimmy Jones preaching about talking the talk and walking the walk.

Marsh seems to be the new Adell and it's funny because I can recall people questioning what was wrong with him when he was in AA and the park was masking his performance.

[T.G.]

3 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Not sure where you see me in this analysis. but I was really vocal Adell wasn't ready last year... and for me, nothing has changed. 

He's the same exact guy he was when people were clamoring for him to be brought up.  The one thing I will say is I'm not fond of his showboating before he's established himself, but that's just me and I always hear Jimmy Jones preaching about talking the talk and walking the walk.

Marsh seems to be the new Adell and it's funny because I can recall people questioning what was wrong with him when he was in AA and the park was masking his performance.

IP... I wasn't talking about you at all.  You're always reasonable and sensible when it comes to this stuff and I gauge a lot of this stuff by what you have to say.  I've been reading your stuff for a long time and you aren't wrong often.

In fact, when people start talking about any particular player and their struggles, I always wonder what your perspective is.  There's a reason for that.  You've demonstrated that you have a great deal of knowledge about this stuff and you communicate it in a way that's easy for me to understand. 

Edited May 17, 2021 by True Grich

[T.G.]

and to be clear... I wasn't talking about anyone in particular... my observation is more about the AW culture...

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, True Grich said:

and to be clear... I wasn't talking about anyone in particular... my observation is more about the AW culture...

AW.com .... Where if you're not Mike Trout at hello you're a bust and if you're Mike Trout and you go through a rough two weeks people wonder what's wrong.

Fans will be fans, most fans are very much in the moment.   I think it's pretty much the same everywhere save for A's fans.  

All I know is that it's a good thing none of us get to make team decisions.

[T.G.]

1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

Fans will be fans, most fans are very much in the moment.   I think it's pretty much the same everywhere save for A's fans. 

All 221 of them.

[Inside Pitch]

7 minutes ago, True Grich said:

All 221 of them.

That may be it, a lot of people have given up on them ever keeping a team together, finally winning in the playoffs..  I dunno what it is.  But you used to be in Scout.com, A's fans have always been super reasonable, super patient.  I don't think there was any fan-base that was more willing to trust the process than A's fans, and to be fair, it's likely they grew conditioned to it.  People have been writing the A's off then being surprised by them for the better part of nearly three decades.  Their fans have grown to accept "wait and see" as an actual thing.

[T.G.]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

That may be it, a lot of people have given up on them ever keeping a team together, finally winning in the playoffs..  I dunno what it is.  But you used to be in Scout.com, A's fans have always been super reasonable, super patient.  I don't think there was any fan-base that was more willing to trust the process than A's fans, and to be fair, it's likely they grew conditioned to it.  People have been writing the A's off then being surprised by them for the better part of nearly three decades.  Their fans have grown to accept "wait and see" as an actual thing.

Those guys at Scout.com were a cool group.  I hate the A's and their fans - but those guys had some great baseball conversations.

[Angel Oracle]

It’d be good to see how Paris handles his first slump first, before promoting him to A+ ball.

Still only 19

Edited May 17, 2021 by Angel Oracle

[Chuck]

33 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

AW.com .... Where if you're not Mike Trout at hello you're a bust and if you're Mike Trout and you go through a rough two weeks people wonder what's wrong.

Fans will be fans, most fans are very much in the moment.   I think it's pretty much the same everywhere save for A's fans.  

All I know is that it's a good thing none of us get to make team decisions.

All of this! There's is nothing wrong with any of that either. 

[Chuck]

23 minutes ago, True Grich said:

Those guys at Scout.com were a cool group.  I hate the A's and their fans - but those guys had some great baseball conversations.

When Fox Sports bought them out they met with me over the phone and in person to negotiate a deal to get AngelsWin.com's members to move our forum to theirs and to assume the writing for their Angels page. 

After a ton of thought I decided to stay independent. So glad I did! 

I think Fox Sports sold them to CBS (I'm not totally sure about that though) and they lost the discussion forums. 

[Inside Pitch]

49 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

All of this! There's is nothing wrong with any of that either. 

I just get a kick out of it these days.  

47 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

When Fox Sports bought them out they met with me over the phone and in person to negotiate a deal to get AngelsWin.com's members to move our forum to theirs and to assume the writing for their Angels page. 

After a ton of thought I decided to stay independent. So glad I did! 

I think Fox Sports sold them to CBS (I'm not totally sure about that though) and they lost the discussion forums. 

You did the right thing.  The Scout.com community was a really solid group, but the constant rebranding and reshuffling completely decimated it.  

[Angelsjunky]

Fans will be fans, and Angels fans aren't an exception to irrationality, hyperbole, and losing sight of the forest for the trees. In fact, part of the raison d'etre for a community such as this one is to share our pain with each other. We don't need to be reasonable all of the time. I, for one, will write a post (vent) knowing at the time that I'm being unreasonable, but it is just a way of voicing frustration.

As for Adell, we can criticize the Angels for prematurely promoting him in hindsight, but at the time they were in a bit of a bind. They wanted him to get actual game experience and there were no minor leagues. So they took a chance. The general consensus seems to be that it hurt his development, but we don't know that. All we know for certain is that it revealed his flaws, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. Now it is very clear what his limitations are and what he needs to work on.

The concern now is that he hasn't shown any signs of having fixed his problems. But he's also only played 10 games. No one expected him to magically transform into Barry Bonds in ten games (or ever).

I think we need to mentally make a shift and pretend that 2020 didn't happen, and what we're seeing now is his first full season of AAA ball. So look back at what he did in 2019 and imagine that 2021 is a follow-up. So what we have is:

2019:

AA - 43 games, .308/.390/.553, 8 HR, 10.4 W%, 22.5 K%, .369 BABIP

AAA - 27 games, .264/.321/.355, 0 HR, 7.6 W%, 32.6 K%, .410 BABIP

2021: 

AAA - 10 games, .214/.298/.571, 4 HR, 10.6 W%, 40.4 K%, .263 BABIP

The positive is that his power has showed up in AAA when, in 2019, it wasn't there yet. He's also improved his walk rate back to what it was in AA. The negative is that he's not making good contact and whiffing a lot (and I won't touch defense).

So we should look for that: can he cut down on the Ks and make better contact? It is really that simple, at least insofar as his on-the-field work translates statistically. And again, we're 10 games in. Those numbers can change very quickly with a few good games.

I also included his BABIP, because we can see how he hasn't had great luck so far. That will go up and with it, his BA. 

All things tolled, given his talent, I see no reason why he won't continue to improve. In other words, I'd bet on Adell. He might not be a superstar, but he should become a good major league player, maybe even a star. But it will take some time. 

Adell will see time in the majors this year. Whether it is 30 games or 60 (about the range I'd predict) depends upon how quickly and well he improves his contact. I think the Angels will, and should, be conservative. But if that K% drops below 25% (or so), and he maintains that for a month, then he might get the call. But it also depends upon other factors: His buddy Brandon Marsh, who has started very strong with a .308/.526/.692 line in 4 games, and the performance of Upton and Ward. 

So I think the Angels will give Marsh a look first, maybe sometime in late June or July. Maybe soon if he continues to hit well and if Ward doesn't carpe diem. And then, depending upon how Marsh does and whether Upton improves, we might finally see that Adell-Trout-Marsh outfield we've been hoping to see for a few years. But that probably won't happen until sometime deep into the second half, and maybe not until September. But I think we'll see it this year, and that the hope--from both fans and the front office--is that will be the outfield next year, with Upton platooning in as a part-time DH and OF (unless they somehow manage to trade him).

Edited May 17, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[Blarg]

3 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

 

I was at the May 8th game and Paris had one walk the entire game. I was ready to see both him and Jackson paired up as #2 and 3 in the order and they went for a combined 0-8. A little frustrating but I had to remember this was their 4th game in 2 years so it was going to take time to shake the rust off. I guess the rust is off of Paris' game with a .444 OBP and .835 OPS. Jackson is still not moving forward with the bat with a .618 OPS. 

The 66ers are Low A instead of Inland being High A and the talent expectation has to be scaled back. These are really the new kids that have yet to prove they belong in baseball so the game is going to look different, less refined. I liked the High A action, it was the gateway to AA which is the real proving grounds and you could see those that probably had a chance rather than just roster fillers. The guys at Low A could go any direction. 

 

[Angelsjunky]

As for Paris, I'm not saying "promote him now!" I'm just wondering aloud when he might get promoted. We don't know how Minasian and his guys will run the farm system. 

There's reason to be excited about Paris. A lot of us in the "Prospect Posse" were very hyped to see how he'd do this year, and so far so good (I'm particularly excited about that walk rate, and the SB are sexy).

So forgive me if I'm starting to dream about what Paris could be, and how quickly he might move through the minors. We have to enjoy the rays of hope when they come to us.

[Angelsjunky]

Anyone know what's up with Jose Bonilla? he's only appeared in 3 games. Is he hurt?

[Inside Pitch]

13 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

 

I also included his BABIP, because we can see how he hasn't had great luck so far. That will go up and with it, his BA. 

 

 

BABIP = (H – HR)/(AB – K – HR + SF)

Yeah -- not really a luck issue, it's a type of contact issue..   He's got 9 hits, 4 of them are HRs...   It's one of the reasons why BABIP's primary usage is on the pitching front.   This becomes less of an issue as the sample size grows and the BABIP "normalizes".

[Angelsjunky]

3 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

 

BABIP = (H – HR)/(AB – K – HR + SF)

Yeah -- not really a luck issue, it's a type of contact issue..   He's got 9 hits, 4 of them are HRs...   It's one of the reasons why BABIP's primary usage is on the pitching front.   This becomes less of an issue as the sample size grows and the BABIP "normalizes".

OK, fair enough. As we've both said, it is too early to take BABIP seriously. I think the conventional wisdom is that it starts normally at around 100 PA and he's not yet halfway there.

[Inside Pitch]

2 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

OK, fair enough. As we've both said, it is too early to take BABIP seriously. I think the conventional wisdom is that it starts normally at around 100 PA and he's not yet halfway there.

Yeah..  it's one of those stats that needs a bigger sample, no doubt.

To be fair -- we use it all the time to show bad luck and it works but we have to keep in mind it excludes HRs, I tend to count the HRs as hits and then recalculate it just to see how big of an impact the HRs are but, I don't believe it's something that is necessary -- just something I do for shits and giggles.  Anyway this is actually one of the reasons why a lot of people argue it's better suited for pitchers.  FWIW, I've always found the argument that HRs are NOT a luck thing for hitters while at the same time arguing that they are for pitchers to be kinda LOL.

Whatever -- Still a super useful stat and worth using it how you intended.

[Blarg]

Makes sense to count them as hits since they are more luck than a planned hit. In some cases the difference between a home run and a double off the wall or fly out is a couple feet. 

[Inside Pitch]

3 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Makes sense to count them as hits since they are more luck than a planned hit. In some cases the difference between a home run and a double off the wall or fly out is a couple feet. 

Its a definitely quirk of the stat, but again..  Probably because it first came to use as a way to gauge pitchers.

[Blarg]

6 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Its a definitely quirk of the stat, but again..  Probably because it first came to use as a way to gauge pitchers.

There is plenty of noise in stats. Neutralizing events during the game is almost impossible since at any given point in the game a fielder could be one step too far away from a play or accidently picks a ball (like Ohtani did on a line drive back to the mound) his reflexes shouldn't have been able to react to. One play should have resulted in an out, the other a single up the middle. I guess you could say water finds it's level but the trail it takes determines if it floods a town or waters a field.

[T.G.]

44 minutes ago, Blarg said:

I guess you could say water finds it's level but the trail it takes determines if it floods a town or waters a field.

Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall.