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Angels linked to Tomoyuki Sugano, deadline is 1/7 (update: stays in NPB)


mmc

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5 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Appier 113 OPS+

Ortiz 118 OPS+

Lackey 121 OPS+

Washburn 142 OPS+

The Angels have won a lot of divisions with a rotation like that, even carrying a sub league average fifth starter. After 2010 the Angels only had three starters over league average, a couple seasons only two.

Last season was the first time since 2009 the Angels had four starters over league average. The star was Dillon Bundy followed by Jamie Barria. Not exactly well respected names in the industry.

Add Bauer and bolster the pen. That should be all that is needed to put four pitchers above league average in the rotation and if Ohtani does regain his rookie poise and control it makes five with two #1 Pitchers and not a bunch of mid rotation guys. 

I guess it depends on how you define “mid rotation”....Washburn might have been a #2 in 2002, bordering on a #1, but he wasn’t as good after 2002....Lackey was a rookie but he was really good down the stretch and in the postseason, maybe a #2 at times....Appier was solid but he faded a bit late....Ortiz was good overall but pretty inconsistent, hard to peg him, maybe a #3....I think if we add Sugano and maybe trade for Gray (?), we’d be fine...my opinion only....

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6 minutes ago, mmc said:

If nothing gets reported tonight, have to believe it’s either us or back to Japan

It's hard for me to think he'd go back to Japan. He'd be seriously betting on himself to still perform amazing as well as not age at all. 

Luba "said" that the offers Bauer has received have shown that COVID didn't change the value of his offers. If that is true, then I wouldn't imagine it'd impact Sugano too much. 

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1 minute ago, angelsnationtalk said:

But then wouldn't we have already heard about it today? If that was the case then there wouldn't be anything for his agent or anyone to keep secret. 

The reason I think Sugano goes back to Japan is because the deadline is approaching soon and I feel like we would have heard if he was making progress with a team or flying out to meet with a team.

Under the team and his agent are really keeping things under wraps, it seems like there isn't going to be enough time left for him to complete a deal with an MLB team before the deadline. Which would mean that his only option is to go back to Japan.

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29 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Appier 113 OPS+

Ortiz 118 OPS+

Lackey 121 OPS+

Washburn 142 OPS+

The Angels have won a lot of divisions with a rotation like that, even carrying a sub league average fifth starter. After 2010 the Angels only had three starters over league average, a couple seasons only two.

Last season was the first time since 2009 the Angels had four starters over league average. The star was Dillon Bundy followed by Jamie Barria. Not exactly well respected names in the industry.

Add Bauer and bolster the pen. That should be all that is needed to put four pitchers above league average in the rotation and if Ohtani does regain his rookie poise and control it makes five with two #1 Pitchers and not a bunch of mid rotation guys. 

The Angel's won with mediocre starters because their bullpen was dominant. 

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4 minutes ago, Trendon said:

The reason I think Sugano goes back to Japan is because the deadline is approaching soon and I feel like we would have heard if he was making progress with a team or flying out to meet with a team.

Under the team and his agent are really keeping things under wraps, it seems like there isn't going to be enough time left for him to complete a deal with an MLB team before the deadline. Which would mean that his only option is to go back to Japan.

That could be so but what @Second Basemakes sense. Keep in mind the Angels are as quiet as can be and we only hear about them when the actual player signs. 

All the buzz has been for the Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox and so on. Not a peep about the Angels other than the fact that we need pitching which means we're in the rumor for him. 

I think he'd be stupid to not sign this year. He'll be 32 next year and who knows if he gets hurt or regresses with stats. His value is high now.

If reports are true that he's in So-Cal then it's 2 options. 

A: Hopping on ANA to go back to Japan 

B: Finalizing deal tonight with Angels, pending physical (tomorrow), to then make official Thursday. 

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42 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Appier 113 OPS+

Ortiz 118 OPS+

Lackey 121 OPS+

Washburn 142 OPS+

The Angels have won a lot of divisions with a rotation like that, even carrying a sub league average fifth starter. After 2010 the Angels only had three starters over league average, a couple seasons only two.

Last season was the first time since 2009 the Angels had four starters over league average. The star was Dillon Bundy followed by Jamie Barria. Not exactly well respected names in the industry.

Add Bauer and bolster the pen. That should be all that is needed to put four pitchers above league average in the rotation and if Ohtani does regain his rookie poise and control it makes five with two #1 Pitchers and not a bunch of mid rotation guys. 

Damn, didn't know the 2002 rotation was so good at hitting. I assume you meant ERA+.

Using that criteria that's a far better than average rotation. I'm too lazy to see what the average ERA+ was in 2002 but it's usually between 99-101. 

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The 2002 Angels rotation is a good example of why you don't need a true #1 to win the World Series. 

Washburn was basically a #3 starter having a career year. Appier, Lackey (in his rookie year), and Ortiz were all mid-rotation types. Sele was more like a decent #4-5.

So the Angels had four solid mid-rotation starters, which fits my findings from an article awhile ago that you need four #3s or better to win the WS.

Presumably the Angels can get at least three of those out of their current group, maybe more. 

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  • mmc changed the title to Angels linked to Tomoyuki Sugano, deadline is 1/7
2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

The 2002 Angels rotation is a good example of why you don't need a true #1 to win the World Series. 

Washburn was basically a #3 starter having a career year. Appier, Lackey (in his rookie year), and Ortiz were all mid-rotation types. Sele was more like a decent #4-5.

So the Angels had four solid mid-rotation starters, which fits my findings from an article awhile ago that you need four #3s or better to win the WS.

Presumably the Angels can get at least three of those out of their current group, maybe more. 

top 5 offense.  

middle of the pack SP (13th)

very good bullpen (11th in WAR yet 3rd in WPA)  then add Krod to that for the playoffs.  

The main thing of not about the rotation from 2002 is that they pitched 1007.2 innings.  Fourth most in baseball.  Only 8 guys made starts that year and one of those was Shields making all of 1.  Callaway made 6, and Schoeneweis made 15.  The top 5 made the rest.  3 guys made 32 starts each.  

If Bundy, Canning, Heaney, and two acquired starters make 140 starts then I think we'll be in really good shape.  Even if it's 130 starts and the rest are made by Sandoval, Barria and Ohtani then this team is gonna do very well.  

But how do you replicate what Percy, Weber, Shields and Donnelly did.  Plus a really good effort by Lou Pote.  I hope Minasian has some bullpen magic in him.  

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Per Rosenthal, he’s still deciding

Thursday is the final day of Japanese right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano’s posting period, and his return to the Yomiuri Giants cannot be ruled out as long as he remains without a major-league deal. The Giants have offered him a four-year contract with opt outs after each season, a structure that would enable him to re-enter the major-league free-agent market next offseason.

Sugano, 31, arrived in the United States on Monday, increasing speculation he was about to join a major-league club. But he seems intent on getting the value he believes he deserves as a two-time winner of the Sawamura Award, Japan’s version of the Cy Young. After producing a 1.97 ERA in 137 1/3 innings in 2020, he loomed as one of the top pitchers on the open market, perhaps behind only Trevor Bauer.

Left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, a less accomplished but younger Japanese pitcher, agreed to a four-year, $56 million free-agent contract with the Mariners in January 2019. In addition, the Mariners paid a $10.275 million posting fee. Sugano presumably would want a similar if not better deal, and while some in the industry believe the Blue Jays made a strong bid, he apparently is not getting his desired number.”

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Looking for a contract based on another teams stupidity isn't the right way to go about it. There's a reason why Kikuchi ended up in Seattle..... Because they offered a boatload more than anyone else out there because not every GM is as stupid and flippant with money as Jerry Dipoto. 

Sugano is better than Kikuchi, who has been awful for two years now but it's showing signs of developing back into what he was in Japan. 

4/56 isn't an outrageous ask. But it is the ceiling of what is reasonable for him. The basement is 3/30. The happy middle ground is probably 4/44. 

It's more than he would make in Japan, and more than he'll garner if he re-enters FA next year.

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3 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Well, $11 million a year vs. $14 million is a big difference for the Angels. 

That's why Sugano is being connected with large market teams, because he wants a large market contract and to be frank, his track record has earned him that distinction. 

If Odorizzi is expected to make between 10-15 million a year across four years, Sugano should likely expect the same. He's pretty good. At least one AL East team thinks he's more of a #4 starter though, which that sort of money isn't worth #4 production (I consider Heaney a typical 4th starter and I wouldn't pay him 15 million a year). 

But I think Sugano will sign with a major league team and garner 12-13 million a year, and I think whoever signs him is likely going to land themselves a run of the mill mid rotation starter, which are in sorry supply these days, so the investment is likely to be worth it IF he stays healthy. Big if.

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