Angels linked to Tomoyuki Sugano, deadline is 1/7 (update: stays in NPB)

[failos]

28 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Edge: Portland

Nah, we got Tank

[mmc]

I don’t want to start getting excited but I stupidly will anyways

 

[rafibomb]

2 minutes ago, mmc said:

I don’t want to start getting excited but I stupidly will anyways

 

If not the Jays who else is there from teams "linked" to Sugano other than us? Padres?

[failos]

Why are so many teams passing on this guy? Is it just $$ or what

[Lazorko Saves]

7 minutes ago, failos said:

Why are so many teams passing on this guy? Is it just $$ or what

Meh stuff (it's basically Dylan Bundy's fastball/slider) + age 31 + only Japan as a track record + overall MLB budget climate being tight = not a lot of interest.

Also he had a Tanaka elbow thing in 2014.  (Ligament damage, but no TJ surgery, just rehab like Tanaka).  Another thing to be nervous about.

Edited January 6, 2021 by Lazorko Saves

[Erstad Grit]

12 minutes ago, mmc said:

I don’t want to start getting excited but I stupidly will anyways

 

So bauer and sugano here!

[eligrba]

1 minute ago, Lazorko Saves said:

Meh stuff (it's basically Dylan Bundy's fastball/slider) + age 31 + only Japan as a track record + overall MLB budget climate being tight = not a lot of interest.

What did you use for determining he is basically Bundy with meh stuff?

[Second Base]

 @AngelsjunkyIf I were to handicap it, I'd say....

Angels - 30% (Need, location and money)

Mariners - 20% (Dipoto FO is full of leaks and they've been silent. So either change in MO or they're out)

Blue Jays - 20% (Recent report says they're out, but that could change)

Padres - 10% (Seem to have enough pitching but they're aggressive, can't count them out). 

Rangers - 10% (Need and have made Japanese acquisitions before)

Japan - 10% (He's already here and hired an American agent).

[Lazorko Saves]

2 minutes ago, eligrba said:

What did you use for determining he is basically Bundy with meh stuff?

Dug up some of the BA scouting reports.  90-93 FB.  Plus slider.  Good command on fb/slider.  Okay curveball.  Was at 96-98 earlier in career, now sits 90-91, touches 93.

This sounds exactly like Bundy.

And to clarify, I consider Bundy's stuff "meh" also.  But he learned how to pitch his meh in 2020 for the first time in his career.

Edited January 6, 2021 by Lazorko Saves

[BTH]

I'm starting to get my hopes up, which means the Angels aren't gonna sign him because that's the way it seems to work.

[Erstad Grit]

8 minutes ago, Lazorko Saves said:

Meh stuff (it's basically Dylan Bundy's fastball/slider) + age 31 + only Japan as a track record + overall MLB budget climate being tight = not a lot of interest.

Also he had a Tanaka elbow thing in 2014.  (Ligament damage, but no TJ surgery, just rehab like Tanaka).  Another thing to be nervous about.

You realize bundy received cy young votes last season?

[rafibomb]

10 minutes ago, Lazorko Saves said:

Dug up some of the BA scouting reports.  90-93 FB.  Plus slider.  Good command on fb/slider.  Okay curveball.  Was at 96-98 earlier in career, now sits 90-91, touches 93.

This sounds exactly like Bundy.

 

A huge difference between Bundy and Sugano could be superior spin-rate on his pitches. Also, you forgot to include main offspeed pitch in your post which is his splitter/forkball. 

 

Quote

 

Sugano pitched against Team USA in the semifinals at Dodger Stadium and was lights-out for six innings, allowing just one unearned run on three hits. He struck out six in that game -- Nolan Arenado three times and Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton and Adam Jones once each.

We also got some early Statcast data on Sugano from that game, since it was in an MLB stadium. Sugano flashed very high spin rate on both his fastball and curveball, averaging 2,513 rpm on his fastball and 2,859 rpm on his curve with a max of 3,079 rpm.

For comparison, in 2020, the Major League average four-seam fastball spin rate was 2,306 rpm, and the average curveball spin rate was 2,533 rpm. High fastball and curveball spin tend to be good signs for a pitcher.

 

 

For comparison's sake, Bundy is in the 78th percentile of fastball spin-rate with an average spin of 2,422 (Sugano - 2,513) and his curveball is in the 28th percentile with an average spin of 2,349 (Sugano - 2,859). This could lead us to assume his slider and splitter might have elite spin numbers as well.

Edited January 6, 2021 by rafibomb

[Lazorko Saves]

Just now, Erstad Grit said:

You realize bundy received cy young votes last season?

Of course.  What point are you trying to make here?

[Erstad Grit]

Just now, Lazorko Saves said:

Of course.  What point are you trying to make here?

You compared sugano to Bundy,  but in a pejorative way.  You describing Bundy's stuff as meh doesn't make sense to me considering he received cy young votes. 

[Lazorko Saves]

7 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

You compared sugano to Bundy,  but in a pejorative way.  You describing Bundy's stuff as meh doesn't make sense to me considering he received cy young votes. 

Where was the pejorative?  There was none.  You'll also note that I make no mention of being opposed to signing Sugano.  I'd like to see it at the right price.

I would be curious which pitch(es) in Bundy's arsenal you think are well above average.

Sometimes command and pitchability can elevate a pitcher above his stuff into Cy Young votes.  Jamie Moyer got CYA votes three different seasons in his career. 

No one would think describing Moyer's stuff as "meh" would be either incorrect or insulting.  Same for Bundy.  Meh stuff, but pitched his brains out in 2020 with excellent command and pitch selection.  If we get Sugano and he does the same, he'd be worth the $10m-$12m they are talking about.

Edited January 6, 2021 by Lazorko Saves

[rafibomb]

I forget Rangers could be a destination as well.

[ukyah]

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

If we get him, I’m hoping something in the range of a 3/$30-36m. Seems fair. 

seems like you could have him for 4/36.

i'd be happy with the angels signing him for four years.

[mmc]

Just now, rafibomb said:

I forget Rangers could be a destination as well.

Unlikely as reports are they’re looking to cut payroll.  Don’t see them meeting his asking price

[ten ocho recon scout]

47 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Makes sense, Scotty, but I would say the most likely destination is Japan. I'd probably rank the Mariners slightly higher than the Angels, with the Blue Jays after.

"Where are the pictures of him getting pizza in japan?" - weatherwonk

[Lazorko Saves]

16 minutes ago, rafibomb said:

Also, you forgot to include main offspeed pitch in your post which is his splitter/forkball.

Eh, I didn't "forget", BA made no mention of it.  Thanks for the extra info.  That would be a big plus if that 4th pitch plays.

Thanks for the info on spin rate too, that is a plus in Sugano's favor.  Bundy has to kind of tiptoe around the strike zone with his 4-seamer due to that low spin rate.

[Erstad Grit]

11 minutes ago, Lazorko Saves said:

Where was the pejorative?  There was none.  You'll also note that I make no mention of being opposed to signing Sugano.  I'd like to see it at the right price.

I would be curious which pitch(es) in Bundy's arsenal you think are well above average.

Sometimes command and pitchability can elevate a pitcher above his stuff into Cy Young votes.  Jamie Moyer got CYA votes three different seasons in his career. 

No one would think describing Moyer's stuff as "meh" would be either incorrect or insulting.  Same for Bundy.  Meh stuff, but pitched his brains out in 2020 with excellent command and pitch selection.  If we get Sugano and he does the same, he'd be worth the $10m-$12m they are talking about.

I interpret meh as average at best. 

Perhaps the difference between us is you seem to view Bundy as having meh stuff but with good control referencing Moyer. 

I'd suggest control is part of a pitchers stuff as opposed to separate,  but I understand your viewpoint. 

Where I think we agree is if sugano is comparable with Bundy that could be a good option if the price makes sense.  

[AngelsLakersFan]

I kind of think we have to be favorites here given all (very little) we know.

If we do sign him I'm not really sure how I'll feel about it. He gives us an arm we need but he doesn't seem to represent the quality we lack. His asking price probably takes us out of the running for Bauer as well, which significantly reduces our chances of getting a top half of the rotation caliber starter.

[jsnpritchett]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

 

I'm not saying it's the Angels, I'm just saying that given the available data, the Angels are every bit as likely as any team right now, if not moreso.

 

[AngelsLakersFan]

5 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

I'd suggest control is part of a pitchers stuff as opposed to separate

At that point you are just using 'stuff' as a catch all for a pitchers overall skill. I think most people use the word stuff in reference to velocity, break and the number of quality pitches.

[eligrba]

4 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

That guy is hilarious...