Cubs shopping Contreras

[Docwaukee]

On 12/30/2020 at 10:32 PM, ten ocho recon scout said:

If you make fun of INO fries, and add pubes, you cover the whole greatest hits album

you forgot scones.  

[Angels 1961]

Detmers for Contreras

[tdawg87]

4 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

Detmers for Contreras

This isn't funny.

[eligrba]

12 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

Detmers for Contreras

This out-of-box thinking makes sense since the Angels need pitching.

[Stradling]

15 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

Detmers for Contreras

Please stop

[Docwaukee]

not that it's the end all be all, but Max Stassi is projected to outperform Willson Contreras.  Because defense.  

even if that's a bit of a stretch, what's not is that Contreras isn't really an upgrade.  

[tdawg87]

Just now, Dochalo said:

not that it's the end all be all, but Max Stassi is projected to outperform Willson Contreras.  Because defense.  

even if that's a bit of a stretch, what not is that Contreras isn't really an upgrade.  

Yeah but imagine having Stassi AND Contreras.

[Docwaukee]

Contreras has spent some time at 1b and corner OF.  Another reason Joe might like him.  

[beatlesrule]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/here-are-some-players-the-cubs-could-acquire-in-a-willson-contreras-trade-with-the-angels/ar-BB1cwXfW

The Angels’ top pick in 2020 was lefty Reid Detmers. That isn't terribly far from a reasonable swap, right there. The lefty hurler from Louisville is fairly advanced. In an environment where players were aggressively pushed to the level of appropriate challenge, 2022 would seem realistic for Detmers. “Mid-rotation or better” is a fair assessment, and why the Angels might consider him too steep. Pushing for Detmers-plus could fall to Contreras for Detmers a decade ago. As for now? Maybe not.

The Darvish trade saw the Cubs getting a second-rounder, since the Padres’ Robert Hassell (prep outfielder from Tennessee) was deemed too rich. The Angels had no second-rounder in 2020, due to signing Anthony Rendon as a free agent an off-season ago. Their third-rounder last June was David Calabrese, a prep outfielder from Ontario. Owen Caissie, similarly an outfielder from Ontario, came over in the Darvish trade.

Internationally, three teens jumped off the board at me. 19-year-old Kyren Paris drew a 45 from Fangraphs last cycle, and 18-year-olds Arol Vera (shortstop) and Alexander Ramirez (right field) had high marks from MLB.

My aim would be to come close, not to satisfy Sara and other Contreras fans. Contreras for Detmers, give or take, would be my first push. Failing that, Paris, Calabrese, Vera or Ramirez, and something, would be my guess.

It would look horrible right now. If the Cubs development people do their jobs, it might look better later. The best hope, if a trade happens, would be a buyer motivated to prioritize 2021 and 2022 over 2023 and beyond. If that's the case, the Angels might make sense.

[OhtaniSan]

I think a package of Yan, JamJones, and 1-2 lower tier prospect in our top 15-30 range would get it done.

I think adding Contreras would be a great addition to what we already have in Stassi. Even better if Contreras can help with some innings at 1B and LF/RF, all of which are positions we aren't 100% on. Upton could easily remain washed up and Ward and Walsh's 2020 could have been flukes. Marsh and Adell could be gone in a trade for a high end starting pitcher and even if not, still need time in AAA until they can be counted upon. Although I think the chances that Upton, Ward, and Walsh will be solid contributors is more likely than not, it would still be beneficial to have Contreras as a backup option as it greatly helps with our roster depth. 

[floplag]

Per ESPN article written by David Schoenfield
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/30662928/should-chicago-cubs-trade-willson-contreras-kris-bryant-deal-them

Los Angeles Angels: Joe Maddon has a long history with Contreras going back to his time as Cubs manager, but more important, the Angels need a catcher. Max Stassi and Anthony Bemboom are the only catchers on the 40-man roster, but Stassi had surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip and might miss the start of the season. Bemboom has hit .167 in his limited major league action. The Angels aren't going to trade Jo Adell for two years of Contreras, but the Cubs could try to pry away another outfield prospect such as Brandon Marsh or Jordyn Adams.

 

So I wonder, if you could get him for Adams, and not lose either Adell, Marsh or the top pitching kids, would you?  I would, all day.   I realize you probably have to add to Adams but as long as that isnt Detmers or one of the top arms, do you do it?

[Second Base]

43 minutes ago, floplag said:

Per ESPN article written by David Schoenfield
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/30662928/should-chicago-cubs-trade-willson-contreras-kris-bryant-deal-them

Los Angeles Angels: Joe Maddon has a long history with Contreras going back to his time as Cubs manager, but more important, the Angels need a catcher. Max Stassi and Anthony Bemboom are the only catchers on the 40-man roster, but Stassi had surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip and might miss the start of the season. Bemboom has hit .167 in his limited major league action. The Angels aren't going to trade Jo Adell for two years of Contreras, but the Cubs could try to pry away another outfield prospect such as Brandon Marsh or Jordyn Adams.

 

So I wonder, if you could get him for Adams, and not lose either Adell, Marsh or the top pitching kids, would you?  I would, all day.   I realize you probably have to add to Adams but as long as that isnt Detmers or one of the top arms, do you do it?

Hard pass on Adams for Contreras. I like Contreras, he's got a good bat, good arm and he handles a pitching staff well. But he isn't perfect. He's hot garbage on arm accuracy and keeping the ball in front him. When you add it all up, he's a good, not great catcher with two years of team control left. 

Do the Angels need him? Yes. Do the Angels need him so bad that they sacrifice the most athletic prospect in minor league baseball, long before his stock has peaked? No. 

If they can pull off a deal for Contreras without giving up Adell, Marsh, Adams, Rodriguez, Detmers and Kochanowicz, or someone like Fletcher, then yes, you do it. Like if Chicago were willing to take Jam Jones, Luis Rengifo, Matt Thaiss and Jose Suarez.... Then I take that deal. 

But typically, when teams deal good players, they want prospect quality over quantity. 

 

[AngelStew43]

Cubs ownership obviously slashing payroll, probably why Theo left.  I would offer Yan, Calabrese, Jam Jones and Barria for Contreras and Davies, the pitcher the Cubs received in the deal with the Padres.  

It relieves the Cubs of two contracts, and gives them tons of payroll relief. 

[totdprods]

That MSN article does raise a good point - the prospects the Cubs got for Darvish are lower-level, higher risk-higher reward, rawer players. Guys that are more like 3-5 years away, not 1-3. 

That aligns nicely with most of the Angels prospects we could theoretically part with without hurting the current win-now push. It would suck losing guys like Calabrese or Blakely or Holmes from a depth standpoint, but in terms of their development timeline, they're somewhat replaceable by drafting more college-heavy the next year or two. 

[mmc]

If they're serious about him, we're probably screwed.  They can put together a much better package.

 

[Second Base]

9 minutes ago, mmc said:

If they're serious about him, we're probably screwed.  They can put together a much better package.

 

Miami's system is not significantly better than the Angels in terms of high end prospects. Not sure where you're getting that from. Adell, Marsh, Adams lines to favorably to most teams to three. 

The real difference is depth. As an example, the Padres top prospects aren't better than the Angels. The difference is that we might have 2-3 "B" grade prospects, whereas they have 6-7.

[Angels 1961]

On 1/11/2021 at 9:24 AM, AngelStew43 said:

Cubs ownership obviously slashing payroll, probably why Theo left.  I would offer Yan, Calabrese, Jam Jones and Barria for Contreras and Davies, the pitcher the Cubs received in the deal with the Padres.  

It relieves the Cubs of two contracts, and gives them tons of payroll relief. 

I keep Barria think he will be big surprise in rotation

[Angels 1961]

1 hour ago, mmc said:

If they're serious about him, we're probably screwed.  They can put together a much better package.

 

So we end up with Castro?

[Hubs]

Detmers is not enough right now for Contreras, though their value would probably equal out after 2021. I also wouldn’t part with controllable pitching for Contreras.

My idea of a good deal also includes Zach Davies from their side. I’d send Adams, Jackson or Paris, Barretto and Barria. That’s a steep price but you get another good pitcher for the rotation for 21 and Barretto and Barria don’t have spots or options.

[floplag]

22 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Detmers is not enough right now for Contreras, though their value would probably equal out after 2021. I also wouldn’t part with controllable pitching for Contreras.

My idea of a good deal also includes Zach Davies from their side. I’d send Adams, Jackson or Paris, Barretto and Barria. That’s a steep price but you get another good pitcher for the rotation for 21 and Barretto and Barria don’t have spots or options.

Considering i think Davies is on a 1 year deal, that may have appeal to them to get more youth instead.  We wont get a 2+ ERA guy probably closer to 4, but id take it.
Youre basically trading for a Barria replacement with less control.  Thats a lot pay for that but its probably fair.

[Angelsjunky]

While I know that the two aren't mutually exclusive, improving at catcher is far less important than the pitching staff. So if the Angels are going to trade away good prospects, I'd rather see it go to pitching.

I'd rather they just spend a few bucks on someone like Avila, Castro, or Flowers, and keep the prospects. Or maybe trade for Gray, sign a cheap depth starter, and go balls-deep on Realmuto.

[floplag]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

While I know that the two aren't mutually exclusive, improving at catcher is far less important than the pitching staff. So if the Angels are going to trade away good prospects, I'd rather see it go to pitching.

I'd rather they just spend a few bucks on someone like Avila, Castro, or Flowers, and keep the prospects. Or maybe trade for Gray, sign a cheap depth starter, and go balls-deep on Realmuto.

Priority and reality are also not exclusive.
I dont mean that rude all im saying is that if the gray trace isnt possible, if we dont want to pay Bauer, you look at the next best options whether its pitching or offense.
WE all know SP is a terrible investment in FA, regardless of how bad we need it.  
I want to see how Kluber performs, or what it might take to get to Paxton, options like Walker or Odorizzi, heck even Richards return... tier 2 is super deep this off season where tier one is beyond thin.

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

Priority and reality are also not exclusive.
I dont mean that rude all im saying is that if the gray trace isnt possible, if we dont want to pay Bauer, you look at the next best options whether its pitching or offense.
WE all know SP is a terrible investment in FA, regardless of how bad we need it.  
I want to see how Kluber performs, or what it might take to get to Paxton, options like Walker or Odorizzi, heck even Richards return... tier 2 is super deep this off season where tier one is beyond thin.

Not sure what you mean by "gray trace." (EDIT: Oh, Gray Trade!)

If the Angels can't/won't pay Bauer, I think they should look (and are looking) into Gray and Musgrove. If they can acquire one of those guys for an acceptable cost, they could theoretically have the funds for Realmuto and a last minute depth starter. If the price is too steep, you've got Tanaka, Odorizzi, Richards, Kluber, Paxton.

But when I think of the organization long-term, I'd certainly look into Contreras, but in the end wouldn't want to give up Marsh. I'd rather go with a solid free agent catcher like Castro or Avila and keep Marsh.

Edited January 12, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[floplag]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Not sure what you mean by "gray trace." (EDIT: Oh, Gray Trade!)

If the Angels can't/won't pay Bauer, I think they should look (and are looking) into Gray and Musgrove. If they can acquire one of those guys for an acceptable cost, they could theoretically have the funds for Realmuto and a last minute depth starter. If the price is too steep, you've got Tanaka, Odorizzi, Richards, Kluber, Paxton.

But when I think of the organization long-term, I'd certainly look into Contreras, but in the end wouldn't want to give up Marsh. I'd rather go with a solid free agent catcher like Castro or Avila and keep Marsh.

I actually agree with all that.  But i dont think it would necessarily cost Marsh, for Contreras, but then no one wants to give up Adams either so its a n endless loop

[Angelsjunky]

13 minutes ago, floplag said:

I actually agree with all that.  But i dont think it would necessarily cost Marsh, for Contreras, but then no one wants to give up Adams either so its a n endless loop

I started out by not taking the Trade Value Simulator all that seriously, but it has been uncannily accurate. Contreras has a 28.3 value to Marsh's 36.2, so you're right, it shouldn't require Marsh. The Cubs could either throw in a prospect or two, or the Angels could come up with a lesser package. Here are a couple packages that work via the simulator:

Contreras, Alzolay and a fringe prospect for Marsh

Contreras for Adams, Jackson, and Knowles