Slow off-season shows Angels hand

[Second Base]

I think if anything, the slow off-season has shown us a glimpse at who the Angels identify as targets and their areas of need. Some were unexpected, others were obvious.

1. Angels view David Fletcher as a 2B, and believe quality middle infielders could be had for cheap. The market is pretty flush with SS with Semien, Simmons, and Kim, as well as Lindor on the trade market, and 2B like Wong and Hernandez available. They acted quickly and got Iglesias for a very reasonable price. They wanted a shortstop, instead of a 2B, and felt one could be had cheaper than anything available in FA.

2. They either view Stassi's performance as unsustainable, or are legitimately concerned over his recovery. If it was neither, Stassi is your starting catcher and whoever else, is simply depth beyond just Bemboom. Instead, they were runner up on James McCann, unwilling to go to a 4th year as the Mets did, and are one of the teams, along with Padres that have actively reached out to contact Yadi Molina. I doubt they spend enough for Realmuto, but I do think it's evident the Angels won't enter 2021 with Max Stassi penciled in as the starting catcher. More likely a complimentary piece. 

3. The Angels are targeting higher end starting pitching. They haven't been in the running for arms like Arihara, Mike Minor or Robbie Ray. Maddon has said it's two starters, not one, and if they had a lower tier arm in mind for either of those targets, they've allowed much of the market to pass them by. Which makes sense to a degree. Are Ray or Minor really a better bet than Barria and Sandoval? You have to figure their targets in free agency are Bauer and Sugano, and on the trade market, a Sonny Gray or Luis Castillo type of starter. 

4. The Angels intend to spend. Most of the circumstances involving the trade market likely require more prospect capital and less monetary investment. But if payroll isn't going down, and likely going to go up, you have to figure they'll be active in free agency. 

5. Some front offices loan towards analytics, and others scouting. Minasian is clearly the latter. Yes, he's hired a notable analytical "guru" as part of his front office, but we aren't seeing a large department in manpower like other clubs. Instead, we are seeing Minasian assemble a team with specific strengths. Collectively, it appears to be a scouting heavy regime. Eppler and Dipoto, it could be argued were pretty neutral if not slightly leaning toward numbers over scouting, which often results in buy-low acquisitions and coaching staff hirings like Doug White. Given the scouting leaning, I think it's a strong possibility they'll be involved in trade as a secondary option beyond the FA market. I expect the Angels to be active in the trade market at the deadline or next winter. 

What do you guys think? Am I way off the mark on any of these?

Edited December 27, 2020 by Second Base

[Vegas Halo Fan]

There is no "higher end starting pitching" available outside of free agency, and even then not much of it. Trevor Bauer and then...crickets. Bauer wants to play for a contender, which likely leaves the Angels on the outside.

I see nothing in their actions thus far that indicates that they intend to spend. If anything, just the opposite, filling holes on the cheap.

There isn't enough talent on the farm to pull off a major trade. Trade too much of it and you trade the future for the past.

Edited December 27, 2020 by Vegas Halo Fan

[Warfarin]

22 minutes ago, Second Base said:

5. Some front offices loan towards analytics, and others scouting. Minasian is clearly the latter. Yes, he's hired a notable analytical "guru" as part of his front office, but we aren't seeing a large department in manpower like other clubs. Instead, we are seeing Minasian assemble a team with specific strengths. Collectively, it appears to be a scouting heavy regime. Eppler and Dipoto, it could be argued were pretty neutral if not slightly leaning toward numbers over scouting, which often results in buy-low acquisitions and coaching staff hirings like Doug White. Given the scouting leaning, I think it's a strong possibility they'll be involved in trade as a secondary option beyond the FA market. I expect the Angels to be active in the trade market at the deadline or next winter. 

I actually think he is likely trying to blend the two fairly well.  Tamin is very much an analytics guy and reportedly very good at it.  I think to succeed in baseball, you need to be good at both these days - scouting and analytics.  I think our scouting department was particularly weak, so I think Minasian is actively trying to address it with his hirings, but in the end, I would expect him to utilize both as he builds the team together.  Or, at least, I hope he does.

[Angelsjunky]

1. I wouldn't mention Iglesias in the same breath as Semien, Lindor, etc. I think the Iglesias trade speaks more of their lack of confidence in Rengifo/Barreto than it does of either viewing Fletcher as a 2B only or some savvy moves on Minasian's part.

2/3. Maybe. They're likely playing wait and see and hoping to be opportunistic and get someone on the cheap if they can't nab Bauer. The problem is, so is everyone else. The market has a way of equalizing like that; everyone is playing within the same context. But I think they'll spend big if the opportunity arises (e.g. Bauer) but aren't just going to spend for the sake of spending, or at least that's what I hope. Barria and Sandoval give them some security: if they can't land a big fish they don't have to over-spend on a mid-rotation guy. So they'll go hard after Bauer and if he doesn't work out, make a competitive bid on Sugano and/or make offers on Gray et al. If none of those work, they might grab someone like Happ or another short-term rental which will have people up in arms that they didn't re-animate the corpse of Walter Johnson. But with Detmers and C Rodriguez waiting in the wings for 2022 and beyond, they should only offer 3+ year contracts on guys that can be #3s or better.

4. I don't feel like there's enough to go on, or at least I haven't studied his history to have a strong opinion. Hopefully he balances the two, as both are important facets of assessment.

[Second Base]

4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

1. I wouldn't mention Iglesias in the same breath as Semien, Lindor, etc. I think the Iglesias trade speaks more of their lack of confidence in Rengifo/Barreto than it does of either viewing Fletcher as a 2B only or some savvy moves on Minasian's part.

2/3. Maybe. They're likely playing wait and see and hoping to be opportunistic and get someone on the cheap if they can't nab Bauer. The problem is, so is everyone else. The market has a way of equalizing like that; everyone is playing within the same context. But I think they'll spend big if the opportunity arises (e.g. Bauer) but aren't just going to spend for the sake of spending, or at least that's what I hope. Barria and Sandoval give them some security: if they can't land a big fish they don't have to over-spend on a mid-rotation guy. So they'll go hard after Bauer and if he doesn't work out, make a competitive bid on Sugano and/or make offers on Gray et al. If none of those work, they might grab someone like Happ or another short-term rental which will have people up in arms that they didn't re-animate the corpse of Walter Johnson. But with Detmers and C Rodriguez waiting in the wings for 2022 and beyond, they should only offer 3+ year contracts on guys that can be #3s or better.

4. I don't feel like there's enough to go on, or at least I haven't studied his history to have a strong opinion. Hopefully he balances the two, as both are important facets of assessment.

The Braves have never been an organization to play the wait and see game under AA. It's a gamble, and someone always ends up getting burnt by it, or worse, they're burnt and then try to compensate in desperation (see Vernon Wells). 

I'm not sure Minasians's first order of business is going to be playing that game and hoping for the best. 

I'd like to think that the Angels are going to be aggressive in meeting their needs, and aren't waiting out the market in search of a bargain as much as they're waiting on these processes to play out. More specifically, I'd like to think the Angels have already made their offers and are now just waiting to find out who wants to play for them. 

I hope they've made offers to Bauer, Sugano, Odorizzi and Molina. 

I hope they're not simply waiting for the market to develop to see if someone calls into their lap for cheap.

[Pancake Bear]

4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

So they'll go hard after Bauer and if he doesn't work out, make a competitive bid on Sugano and/or make offers on Gray et al.

I mean, I could be wrong, but with Sugano's timeline to sign fixed at 10 days (Jan 7), are we expecting Bauer to definitively sign by then? I wouldn't be shocked at all if this goes into late January or February.

[Pancake Bear]

5 hours ago, Vegas Halo Fan said:

Bauer wants to play for a contender, which likely leaves the Angels on the outside.

What makes a contender? Unless Bauer is only going year to year (incredibly unlikely at this point in time, for a number of reasons), recent history is less significant than trajectory. The Angels spend in the upper class of teams (usually in the top ten consistently).

Their offense ranked 3rd in the AL in wRC+ (some unsustainability, but also some underperformances. I don't feel like repeating that level is impossible), which indicates that their problem was pitching.

They've already done a significant overhaul of the bullpen, including bringing in a legit late-inning specialist in Iglesias. Their top three starters were all solid enough: Bundy and Canning are at least a #3-4 in most rotations, and Heaney is certainly a workable #5. If you bring in Bauer, there is your #1. They've indicated they plan to add a second in any case - that already improves the rotation majorly from last season, even accounting for some regression from Bundy.

Point is, given Friedman's notorious reticence to spend - the Dodgers just won the WS, so it's not like the pressure is going to be on him to add to what was already the second highest payroll last year (1st by a lot already going into 2021), and the Yankees have shown zero interest in adding him, the A's and Rays never spend that kind of money, there really aren't any big-time contenders looking to spend what he's asking for. It isn't like Toronto or the Mets (or Boston or San Francisco, or whoever else you think might be bidding) are far better than the Angels. Most 'contenders' either don't have or won't spend that much on him.

[Docwaukee]

5 hours ago, Second Base said:

I think if anything, the slow off-season has shown us a glimpse at who the Angels identify as targets and their areas of need. Some were unexpected, others were obvious.

1. Angels view David Fletcher as a 2B, and believe quality middle infielders could be had for cheap. The market is pretty flush with SS with Semien, Simmons, and Kim, as well as Lindor on the trade market, and 2B like Wong and Hernandez available. They acted quickly and got Iglesias for a very reasonable price. They wanted a shortstop, instead of a 2B, and felt one could be had cheaper than anything available in FA.

2. They either view Stassi's performance as unsustainable, or are legitimately concerned over his recovery. If it was neither, Stassi is your starting catcher and whoever else, is simply depth beyond just Bemboom. Instead, they were runner up on James McCann, unwilling to go to a 4th year as the Mets did, and are one of the teams, along with Padres that have actively reached out to contact Yadi Molina. I doubt they spend enough for Realmuto, but I do think it's evident the Angels won't enter 2021 with Max Stassi penciled in as the starting catcher. More likely a complimentary piece. 

3. The Angels are targeting higher end starting pitching. They haven't been in the running for arms like Arihara, Mike Minor or Robbie Ray. Maddon has said it's two starters, not one, and if they had a lower tier arm in mind for either of those targets, they've allowed much of the market to pass them by. Which makes sense to a degree. Are Ray or Minor really a better bet than Barria and Sandoval? You have to figure their targets in free agency are Bauer and Sugano, and on the trade market, a Sonny Gray or Luis Castillo type of starter. 

4. The Angels intend to spend. Most of the circumstances involving the trade market likely require more prospect capital and less monetary investment. But if payroll isn't going down, and likely going to go up, you have to figure they'll be active in free agency. 

5. Some front offices loan towards analytics, and others scouting. Minasian is clearly the latter. Yes, he's hired a notable analytical "guru" as part of his front office, but we aren't seeing a large department in manpower like other clubs. Instead, we are seeing Minasian assemble a team with specific strengths. Collectively, it appears to be a scouting heavy regime. Eppler and Dipoto, it could be argued were pretty neutral if not slightly leaning toward numbers over scouting, which often results in buy-low acquisitions and coaching staff hirings like Doug White. Given the scouting leaning, I think it's a strong possibility they'll be involved in trade as a secondary option beyond the FA market. I expect the Angels to be active in the trade market at the deadline or next winter. 

What do you guys think? Am I way off the mark on any of these?

1.  I think Minasian does truly value defense and getting a legit SS while moving Fletch to 2b full time was more important than whatever offense they could get at 2b and keeping Fletch at SS.  I also think it leaves their options open for next years huge FA SS class.  Without taking yourself out of that by committing to just a decent 2bman.  and the money to spend on that will play itself out soon depending on what they do with Bauer this year.  

2. I think they were going to target a backstop regardless yet I agree they likely don't see Stassi as a guy who was going to give you 120-130 games.  Maybe 100.  I really think Minasian just wants that veteran guy who is known to handle pitchers really well.  

3. My guess is that they know they've got a good shot at Bauer and he changes the entire dynamic of how they proceed in multiple other areas otherwise.  They'll feel comfortable waiting to a certain point or they've gotten enough info from Bauer's camp on a timeline that they're ok with being in a holding pattern for now.  This also tells me that any trade they would consider also has a big enough chunk of money they'd be responsible for that they can't do both because getting a guy like a Marquez or Castillo without taking on some money could be done regardless of where Bauer goes as either shouldn't be enough on their own from a money standpoint to stop them.  They might be kicking tires on Sugano but I personally don't see him as a reasonable consolation price to Bauer.  But more as a guy in the pool of other options.  

4.  relates to #3.   They can probably afford Bauer and convince him to take a bit less in his first year or two which will then determine what other players they can move on.  The fact that they were willing to go after McCann and what would likely have been about 10m per is a good sign that even if they get Bauer, they might be willing to spend more than just Bauer.   They're at around 156m right now.  Would surprise me to see them add about 25-30m on top of that for 2020.  

5.  Minasian is going to end up with a fairly robust analytics team.   Regardless of whether he puts as much emphasis on it when he makes his decisions, he's gonna want state of the art data that might actually be well beyond anything Eppler was doing.  When 50% of your analysis comes from analytics as opposed to 80%, you still want that 50% to be as useful as possible.  He's gonna want to confirm everything he thinks his scouts are seeing with their eyes.  Scouting and analytics are not mutually exclusive.  Using technology and analytics in certain ways can make scouts better and improve your development process.  It's not a choice.  I think it get's underplayed but my guess is that's what scouting is now.  Not a bunch of old codgers sitting around a table talking about the guy with 'the good face' or 'the high back pockets'.  A huge chunk of what scouts do these days is gonna be data driven.  Maybe I'm wrong about this and there are still hold overs from previous generations but I would doubt there are many scouts left in the game who haven't embraced the shit ton of information they have at their disposal and much to the dismay of some folks around here, a lot of that stuff is conveyed via cameras and sensors and ipads and laptops.  Sorry for the rant on this one, but I just don't think there's really that big of a difference between scouting and analytics these days.  It just boils down to what information you have and how you use it.  

[Stradling]

This might be better suited for the Bauer thread, but I wonder if it is possible to be written into his or any other free agent contracts that guarantees their full salary this year, or any year, regardless of how many games are played.  That way if Bauer agrees to sign here, to a lower first year salary, but that salary is guaranteed and can not be prorated.  That might be a way to get him to agree to a lower salary in year one.  

[Docwaukee]

Just now, Stradling said:

This might be better suited for the Bauer thread, but I wonder if it is possible to be written into his or any other free agent contracts that guarantees their full salary this year, or any year, regardless of how many games are played.  That way if Bauer agrees to sign here, to a lower first year salary, but that salary is guaranteed and can not be prorated.  That might be a way to get him to agree to a lower salary in year one.  

I'm sure there are specific parameters of what sort of leeway one might have in such a contract.  My guess is that the agreement between MLB and MLBPA would not allow for that.  

Were the performance bonuses for games played prorated last year?   I don't know the answer to that actually, but that might be a way to add some additional money.  

[Revad]

Or a signing bonus

[wopphil]

5 hours ago, Revad said:

Or a signing bonus

This. Should be very simple to accomplish.

[eligrba]

@Second Base Great job in putting forth a thoughtful synopsis of what might be happening in the Angel's front office.

I enjoyed the read.