I'm in the Adell is a bust trade him now group

[Revad]

My opinions sometimes change with my mood...but no way I would call Adell a bust at this point.  Would he benefit from a year or even two in the minors?  Yes.  Do I see him opening the 2021 MLB season in RF?  No.  Would I trade him to get a #2 SP?  Probably if we keep Marsh and Adams.

 

[JustATroutFan]

8 hours ago, Erstad Grit said:

So you're comparing him to two of the greatest baseball players ever. 

Also I'm confused why you reduce a baseball player to their hitting line. 

Adell looked like a lost athletic kid who had no idea what he was doing in the outfield.  I've said if you can trade him for Castillo you do it.

You wouldn't trade him for Castillo?

 

Just comparing Adell to A-Rod and Trout wuen the two of them (A-Rod and Trout) were struggling early on in their Major League careers. 

[tdawg87]

1 hour ago, Revad said:

My opinions sometimes change with my mood...but no way I would call Adell a bust at this point.  Would he benefit from a year or even two in the minors?  Yes.  Do I see him opening the 2021 MLB season in RF?  No.  Would I trade him to get a #2 SP?  Probably if we keep Marsh and Adams.

 

Agreed. 

I don't want to trade Adell, but if you can keep Adams and Marsh I think it's worth looking into if you're getting a guy like Gray or (unlikely) Castillo. 

[Erstad Grit]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

He didn't compare Adell to A-Rod or Trout. I don't understand why people say this (it's not just you, EG) whenever a prospect gets off to a slow start and people mention that it's a common thing, citing Trout's poor start as an example. That's all that "comparison" is; stating that even the best players can get off to a bad start.

Baseball is hard. Most prospects don't come up and kill it immediately. I absolutely agree with you that Adell looked completely lost in every facet of the game, but I don't think it's because he's a "bust". It's because he isn't ready. He's 21. That's very young for a pro baseball player.

And you aren't understanding that if a fan on a message board, regardless of their intelligence, knows (thinks) that Adell is a bust, no GM is going to trade a frontline starter for him. If you're convinced he's a bust, then wouldn't the scouts and GM's also be convinced of this?

I'm trying to understand your point of view here. If Adell has significant trade value, then he's not a bust. If he's a bust, as you say, then he has zero trade value. 

If Adell can be traded for Castillo and we don't, we're now banking on Adell being a star. Not just a good major league outfielder. A star. In that sense anything but a star is a bust. 

I'm not saying he's going to never improve on what he did last year, but I don't recall Trout or A-rod (since those names were thrown out) having the disorientation Adell had. 

All we as fans on a message board can do is have takes. Majority think this one is bad. That's Fine. 

Same board killed me when we signed Pujols and I said it would be the worst Angel contract in our history. While Hamilton is now worse that's a moot point. I was called an idiot, moron, etc fan and I'm still here. Not to that level but again with the Simmons trade. No I'm not claiming to be some baseball guru ,I have cited several times I have been wrong. 

My opinion is  Adell will be nothing special and if we have the opportunity to trade him for an ace we better do it or we will regret it. Guys like Goodwin are easy to find, but aces are nearly impossible. 

No-one knows for sure and someone will dig this up years from now. 

 

 

[Dtwncbad]

13 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

If Adell can be traded for Castillo and we don't, we're now banking on Adell being a star. Not just a good major league outfielder. A star. In that sense anything but a star is a bust. 

I'm not saying he's going to never improve on what he did last year, but I don't recall Trout or A-rod (since those names were thrown out) having the disorientation Adell had. 

All we as fans on a message board can do is have takes. Majority think this one is bad. That's Fine. 

Same board killed me when we signed Pujols and I said it would be the worst Angel contract in our history. While Hamilton is now worse that's a moot point. I was called an idiot, moron, etc fan and I'm still here. Not to that level but again with the Simmons trade. No I'm not claiming to be some baseball guru ,I have cited several times I have been wrong. 

My opinion is  Adell will be nothing special and if we have the opportunity to trade him for an ace we better do it or we will regret it. Guys like Goodwin are easy to find, but aces are nearly impossible. 

No-one knows for sure and someone will dig this up years from now. 

 

 

I am kind if amused that you are congratulating yourself for evidently having the amazing foresight to know that a ten-year contact for Pujols would not end up being a great value.

I recall the rational enthusiasm for Pujols was simply a hope he would be really good for 5 or 6 years.  Pretty much every fan knew the length of the contract meant the back half of it could very well suck.

I very much doubt any more than about 5% of sane baseball fans ever believed Pujols would be a productive player worth the money for all ten years.

So let me officially congratulate you for knowing what 95% of baseball fans knew. And the Angels knew.  And the media knew.  And my wife knew.

This impressive insight is certainly something to lean on here in validating your assessment of Adell.

[Inside Pitch]

I don't have any issues trading the guy.  But calling him a bust.   That's just premature -- much like his call up.

[Angelsjunky]

12 hours ago, Erstad Grit said:

That's a great point.

I see Adell as a Goodwin 4th type outfielder. If that happens then while on your scale he'd be a 3 or 4 certainly with expectations that'd be a bust. 

People called HK a bust despite his success.  

I'd say a Goodwin type would be pretty disappointing. But the problem is "bust or not," as if it is either/or rather than a spectrum.

A lot of this has to do with expectations and the degree to which they become unrealistic, especially with regards to our own prospects. Every prospect comes with a range of outcomes that get narrowed down as they develop. Super talented players like Adell have higher expectations, and there's often the feeling of disappointment if they don't become stars, let alone insta-stars like Trout and Tatis, which very rarely ever happens. Meaning, I think what often happens is that we confuse the higher end of possible outcomes with probable performance, and thus our expectations are skewed.

Howie Kendrick is a great case-in-point. I admit to always finding Howie a bit disappointing, but that was relative to his ridiculous minor league numbers. The guy hit .358 in the minors, including .369/.408/.631 in 72 AAA games in 2006. Meaning, there's a reason people saw him as a future batting champion. I never saw him as a bust, though. If I knew in 2006 that he'd end up with 30 career WAR and a .294/.337/.430, 109 wRC+, I'd have thought "Not quite as good as I hoped, but still pretty good." Oh yeah, and "WTF is WAR and wRC+?" 

Back to Adell, I'd say the Howie trajectory would be something like Kole Calhoun or Dexter Fowler, or maybe a bit better: a quality regular, but not a star. 

I think the over/under on Adell's career is more like Torii Hunter or Vernon Wells: A borderline star and occasional all-star. I'd say there's about a 50% chance he'll be in that range, 25% below and 25% above.

[Rollinghard]

"I very much doubt any more than about 5% of sane baseball fans ever believed Pujols would be a productive player worth the money for all ten years.

So let me officially congratulate you for knowing what 95% of baseball fans knew. And the Angels knew.  And the media knew.  And my wife knew."

Then why in the hell did we give 10 years? So the Angels knew he would suck for 5 years?  And tie up money and hamstring developing a 1st baseman for 5 years? And still signed him???? Really? 

Going to John for this one:

   

[Inside Pitch]

On 12/27/2020 at 1:02 PM, Angelsjunky said:

I'd say a Goodwin type would be pretty disappointing. But the problem is "bust or not," as if it is either/or rather than a spectrum.

A lot of this has to do with expectations and the degree to which they become unrealistic, especially with regards to our own prospects. Every prospect comes with a range of outcomes that get narrowed down as they develop. Super talented players like Adell have higher expectations, and there's often the feeling of disappointment if they don't become stars, let alone insta-stars like Trout and Tatis, which very rarely ever happens. Meaning, I think what often happens is that we confuse the higher end of possible outcomes with probable performance, and thus our expectations are skewed.

Howie Kendrick is a great case-in-point. I admit to always finding Howie a bit disappointing, but that was relative to his ridiculous minor league numbers. The guy hit .358 in the minors, including .369/.408/.631 in 72 AAA games in 2006. Meaning, there's a reason people saw him as a future batting champion. I never saw him as a bust, though. If I knew in 2006 that he'd end up with 30 career WAR and a .294/.337/.430, 109 wRC+, I'd have thought "Not quite as good as I hoped, but still pretty good." Oh yeah, and "WTF is WAR and wRC+?" 

Back to Adell, I'd say the Howie trajectory would be something like Kole Calhoun or Dexter Fowler, or maybe a bit better: a quality regular, but not a star. 

I think the over/under on Adell's career is more like Torii Hunter or Vernon Wells: A borderline star and occasional all-star. I'd say there's about a 50% chance he'll be in that range, 25% below and 25% above.

I've always used Mike Cameron as a comp, but Cameron could walk and his defense was amazing.  I think a solid low end comp might be Mark Whiten.  Ridiculous power, trouble hitting for average but he too had better plate discipline and again, he could defend well - cannon arm.  All three were super athletic.

The key for Adell (as we have said), is going to be plate discipline.  His athleticism will help with everything else but it won't mean much if he can't tell balls from strikes or more specifically if he doesn't ever learn what pitches he CAN'T murder.

 

[Dtwncbad]

2 minutes ago, Rollinghard said:

"I very much doubt any more than about 5% of sane baseball fans ever believed Pujols would be a productive player worth the money for all ten years.

So let me officially congratulate you for knowing what 95% of baseball fans knew. And the Angels knew.  And the media knew.  And my wife knew."

Then why in the hell did we give 10 years? So the Angels knew he would suck for 5 years?  And tie up money and hamstring developing a 1st baseman for 5 years? And still signed him???? Really? 

Going to John for this one:

   

Why do people finance new cars for 6 or 7 years when they know the payment in year 6 and 7 sucks for what they are driving?

[Revad]

Adell needs time, I like to see him in AAA for at least one year and even then I wouldn’t expect star production for a few years.

[Rollinghard]

"I think the over/under on Adell's career is more like Torii Hunter "

I am taking the under. Torii Hunter covered a lot of ground and hunted down fly balls with a graceful stride. Adell is 21 years old and gets easily disoriented while running. I don't know if that can be fixed. 

[Rollinghard]

4 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Why do people finance new cars for 6 or 7 years when they know the payment in year 6 and 7 sucks for what they are driving?

I dont. 

[Stax]

I would trade Musgrove for Adell straight up. Musgrove is a middle of rotation starter now with potential to improve on that. At the moment, Adell is a question mark. The Angels need good pitching. Musgrove will give you that now. Adell maybe a star or maybe just a quality regular. The Trout, Rendon.... window is closing. Sign or trade for another middle of the rotation starter and the Angels have the potential to be in the playoffs and maybe even win the world series.     

[Docwaukee]

On 12/27/2020 at 1:17 PM, Inside Pitch said:

I've always used Mike Cameron as a comp, but Cameron could walk and his defense was amazing.  I think a solid low end comp might be Mark Whiten.  Ridiculous power, trouble hitting for average but he too had better plate discipline and again, he could defend well - cannon arm.  All three were super athletic.

The key for Adell (as we have said), is going to be plate discipline.  His athleticism will help with everything else but it won't mean much if he can't tell balls from strikes or more specifically if he doesn't ever learn what pitches he CAN'T murder..

I was thinking of Wil Myers as a comp the other day.  

 

[AngelsLakersFan]

I will admit, his terrible defense worried me. We knew he'd strikeout and that the plate discipline wasn't there yet. The power jumped out at me too though. Not just homeruns but how hard he hit the ball in general, that's something you can't teach.

I was disappointed if only because he was clearly further off than I expected, and a lot of his struggles seemed to be with things talented players have moved past in high school. I am more skeptical of his long term impact though. He obviously has all the talent in the world, and the majority of his value will still turn on his ability to make contact but there is something disconcerting about an athletic player who can't seem to play defense or run the bases - no matter how raw.

[mmc]

Definitely don’t think he’s anywhere close to being a bust, but we’d be insane not to trade him for Luis Castillo

[stormngt]

9 hours ago, Bronson said:

Wow this thread is beyond stupid. Give up on your biggest prospect since Trout because he had a bad corona filled season, didn’t get a proper spring training or any AAA experience and just got thrown into the fire out of nowhere 

Makes perfect sense. 

Releasing him would be considered giving up.

Trading him for a marginal player would be giving up on him.

Trading him for an Ace with club control would be a smart move.

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I will admit, his terrible defense worried me. We knew he'd strikeout and that the plate discipline wasn't there yet. The power jumped out at me too though. Not just homeruns but how hard he hit the ball in general, that's something you can't teach.

I was disappointed if only because he was clearly further off than I expected, and a lot of his struggles seemed to be with things talented players have moved past in high school. I am more skeptical of his long term impact though. He obviously has all the talent in the world, and the majority of his value will still turn on his ability to make contact but there is something disconcerting about an athletic player who can't seem to play defense or run the bases - no matter how raw.

I am sorry, but isn't defense easiest thing to teach?

[Angels 1961]

Sign Tanaka, Walker, Richards, Happ or Bauer then no need to give up on Adell. Adell such a raw talent and so young let him develop.

[eligrba]

21 minutes ago, stormngt said:

I am sorry, but isn't defense easiest thing to teach?

and most important to learn.

I am reminded of an old adage explaining that defense gets you to the major leagues and hitting keeps you there.

[eligrba]

25 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

Sign Tanaka, Walker, Richards, Happ or Bauer then no need to give up on Adell. Adell such a raw talent and so young let him develop.

Tanaka-maybe

Walker-Sure

Richards-No way

Happ-Only at closing time

Bauer-Yes

 

Richards reminds me of a completely restored Chevy Vega or Ford Pinto.....sure, they are both restored and in the best condition they can be in, but in the end they are still a Vega and Pinto.......doomed to breakdown, explode or catch on fire.

[stormngt]

12 minutes ago, eligrba said:

and most important to learn.

I am reminded of an old adage explaining that defense gets you to the major leagues and hitting keeps you there

I would think if he is the athlete everyone says he is he could learn to be learn to be a solid defender.

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, stormngt said:

I would think if he is the athlete everyone says he is he could learn to be learn to be a solid defender.

I have very little doubt he will become perfectly fine in the outfield.  I kinda think CF would be more natural for him. 

[stormngt]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

I have very little doubt he will become perfectly fine in the outfield.  I kinda think CF would be more natural for him. 

If you could trade him for an Ace you do it.