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Dead Horse Thread (Bauer or a Bullpen)


Stradling

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2 hours ago, Stradling said:

No, I totally get it.  I said $20 Million because I think Hendricks, who’s the cream of the crop this year will get around $9 million and the other two around $5-6 million a year. Compared to last year where Blake Treinen, coming off a really bad year got $10 million. 

I'd love to have Hendricks, but not if it prevents us from getting Bauer.

I just don't trust the fickle nature of relievers. I'd rather Minasian and his scouts do their thing and try to find a cheap guy with upside. 

Now if we can get Hendricks, Odorizzi, and trade for Gray, then I'd be pretty happy. That would also save us a draft pick.

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13 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

But relievers moreso.

For sure. That's why it's so nice to have guys with options in your bullpen, so that you can spend the first half of the season figuring out which ones are having a good year and then roll with them for the home stretch. 

If you're paying a lot to a veteran reliever and he's having a crappy year, you're in a really tough spot.

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1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

I'd love to have Hendricks, but not if it prevents us from getting Bauer.

I just don't trust the fickle nature of relievers. I'd rather Minasian and his scouts do their thing and try to find a cheap guy with upside. 

Now if we can get Hendricks, Odorizzi, and trade for Gray, then I'd be pretty happy. That would also save us a draft pick.

The only thing that prevents us getting Bauer, is budget.
Lets be honest, if the budget is a hard number, hes out of our price range. 
Assuming we have 30M left but we still need a C, RF, more bullpen guys, and at least one SP outside of that so thats not all available and he alone will take most if not all of that number.
Hes going to have to be a bonus if were in play.  Fill those spots, give him a reason to want to come here, then put the check in front of him.  Hes not coming here without us being viable.

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4 minutes ago, floplag said:

The only thing that prevents us getting Bauer, is budget.
Lets be honest, if the budget is a hard number, hes out of our price range. 
Assuming we have 30M left but we still need a C, RF, more bullpen guys, and at least one SP outside of that so thats not all available and he alone will take most if not all of that number.
Hes going to have to be a bonus if were in play.  Fill those spots, give him a reason to want to come here, then put the check in front of him.  Hes not coming here without us being viable.

I don't agree at all with the last part. He's going to go wherever he wants and most likely to whomever offers him the most money. 

I don't think he cares what defensive RF the team adds. The catcher might be something that sways him but ultimately it's money that brings in the top guys.

I would be shocked if we haven't already made an offer.

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26 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I don't agree at all with the last part. He's going to go wherever he wants and most likely to whomever offers him the most money. 

I don't think he cares what defensive RF the team adds. The catcher might be something that sways him but ultimately it's money that brings in the top guys.

I would be shocked if we haven't already made an offer.

You know its easy to say that, they they will all just go wherever the money is... and for the most part i think its generally true, however, Bauer is anything but average personality wise.  He wants to win, he needs to win, hes not going to take the most money to go to an also ran.  I could be wrong, i dont know the guy, he just strikes me as being different than most.
Just my opinion, no basic in fact, could be wholly wrong.
I think youre correct though likely already at least made a touch base start offer if not more.

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30 minutes ago, floplag said:

You know its easy to say that, they they will all just go wherever the money is... and for the most part i think its generally true, however, Bauer is anything but average personality wise.  He wants to win, he needs to win, hes not going to take the most money to go to an also ran.  I could be wrong, i dont know the guy, he just strikes me as being different than most.
Just my opinion, no basic in fact, could be wholly wrong.
I think youre correct though likely already at least made a touch base start offer if not more.

Well the teams that appear to be most interested in him are all teams you have to rationalize as winning teams.  It’s us, the Mets and Toronto. 

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18 hours ago, Dochalo said:

my first choice would be Bauer + trade for another top or near top of the rotation arm

2. Bauer + mediocre arm + cheap pen arm

3. Bauer + cheap rotation arm + more expensive pen arm

4. trade for TOR arm + mediocre pen arm + more expensive pen arm

and so on and so forth.  mixed in would be a cheap option to platoon in RF who could also play CF.  

C is at the very bottom of my list.  In fact, I am fine with going into 2021 with what we have.  

Agreed on catching, if Stassi doesn’t miss a lot of time.   Two hip procedures in his career seems like a lot to work back from.

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27 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Well the teams that appear to be most interested in him are all teams you have to rationalize as winning teams.  It’s us, the Mets and Toronto. 

Agreed, i just think the better chance to win is more important to him than a few extra bucks.  
Im not suggesting he going to take like 10M less or anything silly like that.

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So, I looked up the penalties for exceeding the tax threshold.

I didn’t see anything about having int’l money taken away or draft pick taken away.  I did see where if a team exceeded that threshold by over $40 million, they would have their first round pick pushed back 10 spots.

First year exceeding threshold = 20% tax on the overage.

Second year exceeding threshold = 30% tax on the overage.

Going over $20 million above threshold = an extra 12% tax on that overage.

So if Arte went up to $20 million over threshold in year one, he pays only $4 million.

If he goes over in year 2 by up to $20 million, he pays only $6 million.

So for two years, only $10 million paid.

It won’t be an issue once Pujols’ and Upton’s contracts (combined $45 million AAV) are off the books after 2022.

So that would seem that Arte could afford to add another $50 million AAV tops for the rest of the off-season, since he gets almost all of it back two years from now.

Two years max, and you can improve the team to be an AL West contender in 2021 and beyond.  And with post-season appearances in 2021 and beyond, he gets back the $10 million paid in taxes.

Edited by Angel Oracle
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26 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

So, I looked up the penalties for exceeding the tax threshold.

I didn’t see anything about having int’l money taken away or draft pick taken away.  I did see where if a team exceeded that threshold by over $40 million, they would have their first round pick pushed back 10 spots.

First year exceeding threshold = 20% tax on the overage.

Second year exceeding threshold = 30% tax on the overage.

Going over $20 million above threshold = an extra 12% tax on that overage.

So if Arte went up to $20 million over threshold in year one, he pays only $4 million.

If he goes over in year 2 by up to $20 million, he pays only $6 million.

So for two years, only $10 million paid.

It won’t be an issue once Pujols’ and Upton’s contracts (combined $45 million AAV) are off the books after 2022.

So that would seem that Arte could afford to add another $50 million AAV tops for the rest of the off-season, since he gets almost all of it back two years from now.

Two years max, and you can improve the team to be an AL West contender in 2021 and beyond.  And with post-season appearances in 2021 and beyond, he gets back the $10 million paid in taxes.

This is exactly what ive been saying... if there was EVER a time to bust the budget, this is it.
Its for a max 2 years and you set the club up for a long period if you do it right.

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1 hour ago, floplag said:

Agreed, i just think the better chance to win is more important to him than a few extra bucks.  
Im not suggesting he going to take like 10M less or anything silly like that.

I do agree with this. 

But I'm guessing he might consider the Halos a better chance at winning than Toronto in the AL East and The Mets.

Then again I'm biased.

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2 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I do agree with this. 

But I'm guessing he might consider the Halos a better chance at winning than Toronto in the AL East and The Mets.

Then again I'm biased.

The only disagreement I would have with that is Toronto has some much young talent that doesn’t have to be paid yet that they can realistically continue to add in free agency.  The Mets have a new VERY rich owner that didn’t lose his ass last year.  

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1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

So, I looked up the penalties for exceeding the tax threshold.

I didn’t see anything about having int’l money taken away or draft pick taken away.  I did see where if a team exceeded that threshold by over $40 million, they would have their first round pick pushed back 10 spots.

First year exceeding threshold = 20% tax on the overage.

Second year exceeding threshold = 30% tax on the overage.

Going over $20 million above threshold = an extra 12% tax on that overage.

So if Arte went up to $20 million over threshold in year one, he pays only $4 million.

If he goes over in year 2 by up to $20 million, he pays only $6 million.

So for two years, only $10 million paid.

It won’t be an issue once Pujols’ and Upton’s contracts (combined $45 million AAV) are off the books after 2022.

So that would seem that Arte could afford to add another $50 million AAV tops for the rest of the off-season, since he gets almost all of it back two years from now.

Two years max, and you can improve the team to be an AL West contender in 2021 and beyond.  And with post-season appearances in 2021 and beyond, he gets back the $10 million paid in taxes.

He's not going over it. He has drawn that line in the sand.

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Bauer.

Strong bullpens make a huge difference come October.

But we need a SP staff that can get us to october, first. As mentioned above, Weave was the last dependable SP I can remember. (Need to see Bundy for more than one year). Since then its been Skaggs (RIP) and Heaney leading the staff, with a blip of GR. And none were "dependable". Bouts of "hes turned a corner", with equal bouts of "meh, hes fine as a 3 or 4".

Get a real SP for once, Arte. Please.

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He's not going over the CBT threshold.  He's not even going to go over his budget.  He spends enough to where it shouldn't be an issue.   Especially now with some more room in the budget.  I could see how he'd draw that firm line in the past because the team probably wasn't worth spending a little extra on.  And maybe he spend a little extra now, but it's not going to be to the tax threshold.  My guess is that we'll find out when things start to settle toward the end of the off season.   A couple mil extra to get that pen guy or OFer or C.  

And for the record, I think he will consider signing Bauer.  And I think he will consider supplementing beyond that.  But not by much.  

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4 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

He did say in the past he would go over for the right player, unless that changed recently.

 

I know we say this around here a lot, but I seriously doubt Arte has this on a plaque in his office so he can ask himself every time his GM asks if he can push the budget "Is this the right guy? Nah..." I think in Arte's mind, he's already pushed the budget in the past. 

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