Taking on contracts to acquire good pitching - Is it worth it?

[wopphil]

2 hours ago, Trendon said:

Here's a question: would you trade David Fletcher in a deal for Castillo or Gray? Fans love him, but from a strictly baseball standpoint, they could probably sign a second basemen in free agency who could perform similarly to Fletcher at a reasonable cost.

The reason why you would do it because you can sign a second basemen out there for a reasonable amount, but you can't sign an elite starting pitcher unless you're shell out a ton of money.

Absolutely you move Fletcher for Castillo. In fact, Castillo likely requires taking on Moose as well, which solves your second base problem (albeit at a cost). If the Reds paid down Moose a bit, there would still be enough money for another starter. 

[Angel Oracle]

On 12/20/2020 at 8:10 PM, tdawg87 said:

If you have a legitimate opportunity to acquire BOTH Gray AND Castillo without buttfucking your farm system, you absolutely cannot pass up on that. 

If money is the only thing standing in the way of that happening, then Arte needs to take out his checkbook, and then his balls, place them both gently on his desk in front of Minasian, look him dead in the eye and stoicly say "Get me a ring".

Unfortunately there's no precedent for Arte doing that, so we have to assume he's not going over the tax threshold, making this a fantasy discussion.

The Dogs made out well taking on contracts to acquire important players.

If taking on Moose and Castellanos to acquire Gray and Castillo, what would the trade need to entail coming from the Halos?

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

He may want 5/125 but there's no way he gets anything close to it.  No way he eclipses 100mil.  Maybe 90mil, max.

Wasn't really my point. One of two things will happen: Either he will find a sucker (unlikely) or, (almost certainly), he'll settle for significantly less and use some other team to up the Yankees offer slightly to go back there. Unless a team overpays significantly (as in 100m+), he's going back to NY. 

[Pancake Bear]

12 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

The Dogs made out well taking on contracts to acquire important players.

If taking on Moose and Castellanos to acquire Gray and Castillo, what would the trade need to entail coming from the Halos?

I can't comment on their accuracy, but I'm attaching mlbtradevalues' value assessment of the four in question as well as our top trade chips to give an outside perspective. 

To be clear: This pic is not a suggestion of what we should trade or what it would take to acquire the players in question.

I would note, though: Trade chips like Castillo don't come around often. If the Reds are that desperate to get rid of Moose and Castellanos, we can probably assume the overall total value should be lowered a decent bit to allow for the subjectivity of the Reds' circumstances. The only question is how much. (That's also not considering how accurate the valuations above even are in a neutral context).

[Erstad Grit]

21 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

I can't comment on their accuracy, but I'm attaching mlbtradevalues' value assessment of the four in question as well as our top trade chips to give an outside perspective. 

To be clear: This pic is not a suggestion of what we should trade or what it would take to acquire the players in question.

I would note, though: Trade chips like Castillo don't come around often. If the Reds are that desperate to get rid of Moose and Castellanos, we can probably assume the overall total value should be lowered a decent bit to allow for the subjectivity of the Reds' circumstances. The only question is how much. (That's also not considering how accurate the valuations above even are in a neutral context).

First trade idea I've seen that I think reds would do

[Pancake Bear]

Just now, Erstad Grit said:

First trade idea I've seen that I think reds would do

Wasn't a trade idea. 

[Tank]

29 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

I can't comment on their accuracy, but I'm attaching mlbtradevalues' value assessment of the four in question as well as our top trade chips to give an outside perspective. 

To be clear: This pic is not a suggestion of what we should trade or what it would take to acquire the players in question.

I would note, though: Trade chips like Castillo don't come around often. If the Reds are that desperate to get rid of Moose and Castellanos, we can probably assume the overall total value should be lowered a decent bit to allow for the subjectivity of the Reds' circumstances. The only question is how much. (That's also not considering how accurate the valuations above even are in a neutral context).

no way. way too high a price to pay. our minor league would be decimated by this.

[Pancake Bear]

32 minutes ago, Tank said:

no way. way too high a price to pay. our minor league would be decimated by this.

I swear, no one looks at anything but the freaking picture. Seriously, read what I said. It was not a trade suggestion.

[Docwaukee]

6 hours ago, mmc said:

My point is that the amount of money that will be added to our payroll by acquiring an ace + a crappy contract will prohibit us from making other major additions to our pitching staff, which is in need of several.  Spending money to acquire multiple pitching upgrades (which we need as our staff is all around below average) is more important than blowing the budget on a single ace.

they don't need several additions to the pitching staff.  An ace has a significant impact on any pitching staff.  Especially a mediocre one.  It's way easier to find a second guy who's nearly as good as some middle of the pack guy.  Just because Eppler did a crap job of it doesn't mean that other teams or the Angels can't do it.  Lance Lynn's of the world are significant outliers in that mid tier SP market.  Mostly it's a big pile of overpaid dog shit.  You have almost as good of a chance of getting some guy to give you some viable innings at 6m.  

[Docwaukee]

5 hours ago, Warfarin said:

Absolutely you trade Fletcher in a deal for Castillo, 100%.

Fletcher has 4 years of control, Castillo has 3 years of control.

DJ LeMahieu, who is an elite 2B, probably will be hard pressed to get more than 4/80.

Bauer, a very good SP but not elite, will probably get 6 years and somewhere between 150-180 million.

A very good SP is worth WAY more than a very good 2B on the open market.  It is very hard to find good pitching, but it is not hard to find a good 2B.

LeMahieu is two full seasons older than Bauer so it's a tough comp.  If players are the same age, the position player of similar value tends to get more because they usually get more years than a pitcher.  

For the most part though, I agree that it's easier to replace a 2bman than find an elite or even very good starter.  But bear in mind it wouldn't be just Fletch straight up.  There would be significant prospect capital going to the reds as well.  AND you are likely taking on a shitty contract.  

I am not sure how sustainable Fletch's value is long term due to a pretty large portion of it coming from his batting average, but he had a 3.4 WAR season in 2019 and was on pace for a 5 WAR season in 2020.  Even if he fell off a bit and it ended up at 4 WAR.   There are about five 4+ WAR seasons from 2b each year.  That's kinda creeping toward elite if he can keep it up.  

[Docwaukee]

5 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

I keep Barria and grab the best pitcher available. We don't need more 5's. 

I'm also gonna give Minasian a little rope and hope he doesn't hang himself.  

I still think we need a 2nd SP.  But I'm willing to see what he can do in what I think will become a buyers market very soon.  

[Docwaukee]

3 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

I can't comment on their accuracy, but I'm attaching mlbtradevalues' value assessment of the four in question as well as our top trade chips to give an outside perspective. 

To be clear: This pic is not a suggestion of what we should trade or what it would take to acquire the players in question.

I would note, though: Trade chips like Castillo don't come around often. If the Reds are that desperate to get rid of Moose and Castellanos, we can probably assume the overall total value should be lowered a decent bit to allow for the subjectivity of the Reds' circumstances. The only question is how much. (That's also not considering how accurate the valuations above even are in a neutral context).

no way I make that trade!!!

 

 

 

 

just kidding.  Totally agree with how taking on a bad contract in this market would substantially lower what they'd have to give up.  It still wouldn't be cheap to get Castillo, but if you took Gray and Moustakas, I'm not even sure we'd have to give up anyone from the halos you've listed.  but that does pretty much eat the whole budget. 

[Pancake Bear]

14 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I'm also gonna give Minasian a little rope and hope he doesn't hang himself.  

I still think we need a 2nd SP.  But I'm willing to see what he can do in what I think will become a buyers market very soon.  

I don't have a problem with grabbing two. But if it's two lower end pitchers vs Bauer and keeping Barria as our fifth? I prefer going for the one I'd consider a higher end guy. 

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, Pancake Bear said:

I don't have a problem with grabbing two. But if it's two lower end pitchers vs Bauer and keeping Barria as our fifth? I prefer going for the one I'd consider a higher end guy. 

same boat.  

Bauer + 1 (even if that +1 doesn't blow up my skirt)

over 

2 mediocre guys.  

[Warfarin]

4 hours ago, Dochalo said:

LeMahieu is two full seasons older than Bauer so it's a tough comp.  If players are the same age, the position player of similar value tends to get more because they usually get more years than a pitcher.  

For the most part though, I agree that it's easier to replace a 2bman than find an elite or even very good starter.  But bear in mind it wouldn't be just Fletch straight up.  There would be significant prospect capital going to the reds as well.  AND you are likely taking on a shitty contract.  

I am not sure how sustainable Fletch's value is long term due to a pretty large portion of it coming from his batting average, but he had a 3.4 WAR season in 2019 and was on pace for a 5 WAR season in 2020.  Even if he fell off a bit and it ended up at 4 WAR.   There are about five 4+ WAR seasons from 2b each year.  That's kinda creeping toward elite if he can keep it up.  

Right, I agree for sure.  It'd be tough to trade him (and prospects), but Castillo is probably the best pitcher available in the market - better than Snell, Gray, Darvish, etc.  It would cost a lot to get him.  The cost can be somewhat mitigated if we took Moose back, but it'd still be a very expensive deal.

[Warfarin]

4 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

I don't have a problem with grabbing two. But if it's two lower end pitchers vs Bauer and keeping Barria as our fifth? I prefer going for the one I'd consider a higher end guy. 

Generally, this is my thinking too.  It is conditional on who the two are, there.  If we sign two FAs, like Odorizzi and Quintana, who would probably combine to cost roughly what Bauer does for a single year?  I'd take Bauer + Barria over Odorizzi + Quintana.

However, if we trade for Gray and sign Quintana?  I'd take that combo over Bauer + Barria, but of course, the comparison isn't quite the same, since we'd have to trade prospects in the latter scenario (but not the former).

[ten ocho recon scout]

Id be for it, juat because if we got gray and moustakas, it would make so many past threads / arguments on here finally come true.

Moustakas might be tied for most threads on here with guys who have actually played here.

[TroutCron]

On 12/20/2020 at 10:10 PM, tdawg87 said:

If you have a legitimate opportunity to acquire BOTH Gray AND Castillo without buttfucking your farm system, you absolutely cannot pass up on that. 

If money is the only thing standing in the way of that happening, then Arte needs to take out his checkbook, and then his balls, place them both gently on his desk in front of Minasian, look him dead in the eye and stoicly say "Get me a ring".

Unfortunately there's no precedent for Arte doing that, so we have to assume he's not going over the tax threshold, making this a fantasy discussion.

Cincinnati would be foolish to include Gray and Castillo in the same deal. Castillo will take a boatload of prospects and MLB ready players. Gray will still cost at least two top 10-15 prospects. There are any number of teams who would be in on both. The chances of acquiring one is low at best. 

[eligrba]

Don't the Angels have enough shitty contracts already?  I would think that the best time to consider this option would be with a payroll without any shitty contracts. 

Taking on bad contracts and having a budget do not mix.

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, eligrba said:

Don't the Angels have enough shitty contracts already?  I would think that the best time to consider this option would be with a payroll without any shitty contracts. 

Taking on bad contracts and having a budget do not mix.

They have two bad contracts neither have prevented them from signing other deals.  One of those bad contracts will be gone after this season the other after next season. 

[eligrba]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

They have two bad contracts neither have prevented them from signing other deals.  One of those bad contracts will be gone after this season the other after next season. 

Do you think that those two financial obligations had an impact on what the Angels offered Cole?  For the record, I am totally fine with him going to the Yankees for that much money and time.

[Stradling]

11 minutes ago, eligrba said:

Do you think that those two financial obligations had an impact on what the Angels offered Cole?  For the record, I am totally fine with him going to the Yankees for that much money and time.

No I don’t think they had an impact on offering him the contract they offered him.  I don’t think they would have valued Cole differently if they weren’t paying Albert or Upton.  I mean maybe they would have offered more in year one, but the value is the value.  I don’t think Albert or Upton was the deciding factor on whether or not they would tack on a 9th year to the contract.  

[ukyah]

On 12/26/2020 at 9:01 AM, eligrba said:

Do you think that those two financial obligations had an impact on what the Angels offered Cole?  For the record, I am totally fine with him going to the Yankees for that much money and time.

the angels offered cole over 200 million dollars. so, i don't think anybody had an impact on the angels offer.

[Second Base]

From where I'm standing right now, I'd say...

1. It only takes two teams for a bidding war, and Bauer figures to have at least four. We saw what crazy number deep pockets teams are willing to go to last winter with the Nats spending that much on Strasburg and Yankees spending that much on Cole. Minasian shouldn't be the one that makes that mistake. I think it's Bauer to the Mets or Dodgers.

2. Seeing what TB just got for Snell likely means that if the Reds were considering not selling, they're probably reconsidering right now.  

Just a guess, but I'm thinking the Angels probably end up overpaying in a trade for Sonny Gray to the tune of Brandon Marsh, Jack Kochanowicz, Luis Rengifo and Jaime Barria, sign Jake Odorizzi to a bloated contract that's like 4/60 when he really should be getting 3/36, trade for a lesser known catcher to split duties with Stassi, and sign another reliever for around 5 million. 

So no Bauer, Darvish, Castillo, Snell or Sugano. But still, not a franchise ceiling off-seasons either.

[Cosmo_Kramer]

16 minutes ago, Second Base said:

From where I'm standing right now, I'd say...

1. It only takes two teams for a bidding war, and Bauer figures to have at least four. We saw what crazy number deep pockets teams are willing to go to last winter with the Nats spending that much on Strasburg and Yankees spending that much on Cole. Minasian shouldn't be the one that makes that mistake. I think it's Bauer to the Mets or Dodgers.

2. Seeing what TB just got for Snell likely means that if the Reds were considering not selling, they're probably reconsidering right now.  

Just a guess, but I'm thinking the Angels probably end up overpaying in a trade for Sonny Gray to the tune of Brandon Marsh, Jack Kochanowicz, Luis Rengifo and Jaime Barria, sign Jake Odorizzi to a bloated contract that's like 4/60 when he really should be getting 3/36, trade for a lesser known catcher to split duties with Stassi, and sign another reliever for around 5 million. 

So no Bauer, Darvish, Castillo, Snell or Sugano. But still, not a franchise ceiling off-seasons either.

That's not an overpay