Taking on contracts to acquire good pitching - Is it worth it?

[Second Base]

The Reds are reportedly dangling Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray, both front of the rotation starters in return for taking on a couple of ill-advised contracts in Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas. Each have three years at an average of 16 million a year left on the contract. Cincinnati needs a fresh start, and the Angels need pitching. 

This adds roughly 50 million in payroll, which would be difficult to stomach, but it would also allow the Angels the unique opportunity to keep their prospects and become an elite contending team at the same time. 

Their rotation would be Castillo, Gray, Ohtani, Bundy, Heaney and Canning, which would profile as one of the best in all of baseball. And the offense added by putting Moose at 2B and Castellanos in RF would likely give the Angels the best offense in the AL, possibly all of baseball.

But for the next three years, they'd be operating with no money to spend on FA. They'd also struggle defensively with Moose and Castellanos being simply passable at their respective positions, for now. It would also necessitate Fletcher's move to SS, where he's solid, but not Gold Glove level like he is at 2B and 3B. 

But getting to keep Adell, Marsh, Adams, C-Rod, Detmers, Paris and Kochanowicz also sets the Angels up nicely in the future.

So my question, is it worth it? It's a huge gamble, that could either set the organization up for a high level of sustainable success for years, possibly making them a World Series favorite for the next three, or it could seriously hinder them for the next few years, which are Trout and Rendon's prime. 

 

Edited December 21, 2020 by Second Base

[Warfarin]

Castillo has so much surplus value that anyone acquiring him would still need to give up significant prospects, even if we took on the contracts of Moose and Castellanos.

Castellanos would be interesting if he was left-handed or could field better.  He's an awful fielder, and we already have Upton, who is an awful fielder.

Moose can play 2B/3B/1B, but we have long-term options at all of those positions.  Even at DH, we have Ohtani, so Moose can't really fit in anywhere in that regard.  Maybe if Moose could play RF (or even LF), but he can't to my knowledge.

Neither Moose nor Castellanos fit this club in any way.  While I agree there is value in absorbing bad contracts to some degree, I think given we already have 2 of them (Pujols and Upton), to go along with two other guys earning over 30mil/yr, and I don't think we are ideally positioned to absorb any contracts at this point.

Likely, our best solution is to indeed trade some prospects for a good, cost-controlled SP, while also gambling on a FA who can be had on a short-term (1-2 year) deal.

[tdawg87]

If you have a legitimate opportunity to acquire BOTH Gray AND Castillo without buttfucking your farm system, you absolutely cannot pass up on that. 

If money is the only thing standing in the way of that happening, then Arte needs to take out his checkbook, and then his balls, place them both gently on his desk in front of Minasian, look him dead in the eye and stoicly say "Get me a ring".

Unfortunately there's no precedent for Arte doing that, so we have to assume he's not going over the tax threshold, making this a fantasy discussion.

[Docwaukee]

If you could get the Reds to kick in a bit of money or another decent reliever then it might be something to consider.  The biggest problem then become 2022 when you lose Heaney and Bundy yet you've got almost no money to replace them.  

Also, Moustakas would become our 1bman and Walsh becomes a trade chip.  

Or, you give up some prospect capital and only take one of them.  Moustakas would play 1b and have some util value and you could platoon Walsh in RF.  

[Stradling]

A couple people have suggested @Dtwncbad and someone else suggested taking on Heyward to get Darvish or Hendricks.  That’s the one I’d be ok with because he’s still really good defensively.  

[Warfarin]

Just to give an idea, while BaseballTradeValues obviously isn't 100% accurate, the combined value of Castillo, Gray, Moose, and Castellanos is "100," which is the equivalent of Adell + Canning + Adams.

Basically, it shows how much value Castillo has.  Also, while Moose and Castellanos have negative trade values, they are still actually decently productive and come at a cost of 16mil/yr.  Not exactly in Albert Pujols territory in terms of terrible trade value.

 

[Lou]

Help me out here. If we can add $50M to the payroll, couldn't we just sign the necessary free agents and keep our prospects?

[tdawg87]

5 minutes ago, Lou said:

Help me out here. If we can add $50M to the payroll, couldn't we just sign the necessary free agents and keep our prospects?

What necessary free agents?

Bauer and.... Odorizzi?

[wopphil]

I think this is a good thought. I can’t imagine the Reds trading Castillo and Gray in the same deal, but you would figure there would be a large discount if the team were willing to take on Mouse and Castellanos. It’s easy to see how the team could accommodate these guys: Mouse to second, Fletcher to right, Castellanos to DH.

The Reds would need to kick in some cash, and you can assume there would be a ton of prospect capital heading back to the Reds. But it’s a fun scenario to think about. 

[Second Base]

1 minute ago, tdawg87 said:

What necessary free agents?

Bauer and.... Odorizzi?

Maybe Sugano and Bauer? Either way, neither of them would be as good as Castillo abd Gray, in my opinion. But they wouldn't take taking on bad contracts either, so from a value standpoint it's probably the better move. The on the field product wouldn't be as good though either.

[Lou]

4 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

What necessary free agents?

Bauer and.... Odorizzi?

Sure.

We'd even have money to spare. 

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, Lou said:

Sure.

We'd even have money to spare. 

But that would be gay.

[Angel Oracle]

29 minutes ago, Lou said:

Sure.

We'd even have money to spare. 

To sign Pillar or Bradley

Edited December 21, 2020 by Angel Oracle

[AngelsLakersFan]

48 minutes ago, Lou said:

Help me out here. If we can add $50M to the payroll, couldn't we just sign the necessary free agents and keep our prospects?

No one wants to play in southern California. 

[Lou]

4 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

No one wants to play in southern California. 

F'n Arte  Gavin.

[Second Base]

I suppose one is that explores the subject conceptuality but offers slightly more middle ground would be trading for Castillo and Sonny Gray, while taking on Moustakas, and instead of Castellanos too, substitute the salary relief they'd get from him with prospects. But that would have to be some serious value in terms of prospects. If you figure the Angels former first round pick Will Wilson was worth around 7 million in value to the Giants, and convincing the Reds to keep Castellanos at 16 million this year, not accounting for future seasons where they hope for a bounce back, that would likely cost Marsh and Rodriguez.

So the deal itself would be Castillo, Gray and Moustakas for something like Jaime Barria, Brandon Marsh and Chris Rodriguez. It's still a win for the Angels, Moose gets them Gray, and the package of Marsh, Rodriguez and Barria gets them Castillo. 

Moose moves to 1B, Walsh to RF, they still keep Adell, Adams and Detmers, and they get the aces they need. Cincinnati jettisons 30 million in payroll, gets some top prospects for their rebuild and hopes for a return to form from Castellanos so they can trade him and not have to eat as much money in the deal.

Edited December 21, 2020 by Second Base

[angelsnationtalk]

I'd like to see the Reds retain some of the salary which I think is possible. Definitely agree that we'd have the best offense/rotation. 

One main reason I don't see this happening is Minasian keeps speaking about run prevention. Castellanos and the Moose don't help at all with that. Then again, who cares when you'll be scoring 5+ runs per game and likely only giving up 3.

@Second Base I saw the articles about Castillo and Gray available but nothing on packaging those 4 guys up. Is there an article somewhere??  

[Docwaukee]

3 hours ago, Warfarin said:

Just to give an idea, while BaseballTradeValues obviously isn't 100% accurate, the combined value of Castillo, Gray, Moose, and Castellanos is "100," which is the equivalent of Adell + Canning + Adams.

Basically, it shows how much value Castillo has.  Also, while Moose and Castellanos have negative trade values, they are still actually decently productive and come at a cost of 16mil/yr.  Not exactly in Albert Pujols territory in terms of terrible trade value.

 

the negative value of the contracts for Castellanos and Moustakas are even more so considering this market and the fact that there are likely very few if any willing to take on one of them let alone both.  

that said, Betts and Price cost Downs (top 100 and borderline top 50 ie like Marsh), Verdugo (top 30 and major league ready), and a decent but not great prospect in Connor Wong (he'd probably be in the 20-25 range for the halos).  Betts is a superstar yet had only one year left on his deal with no guarantees he'd stay.  Price was/is reasonably productive.  

the only way this would work without giving up half our farm system is if the Reds were utterly desperate from a financial standpoint.  Even still, they're probably still better off splitting up the trade and moving one of Castillo/Gray and one of Moustakas/Castellanos in two separate deals.  

I don't have a problem with the halos taking on some money to get a deal done.  Not my money but we all know it impacts payroll going forward.  And the biggest issue isn't that it impact payroll for 1yr but 3.  Taking on a years worth is one thing.  Handcuffing payroll for the next three is untenable and unrealistic.  

[Angelsjunky]

Maybe one but not both. I think Castillo would cost too much in prospects, but I could see a trade of something like Jeremiah Jackson and Jose Suarez for Sonny Gray and Nick Castellanos.

[Angels 1961]

You want an ace that is Castillo, but you will pay for him. What will cost be? Some top prospects for sure and taking on a bad contract. You want to win now you find away. I take on one of those contracts. We have the DH and OF spot for Castellanos and he would add big bat in lineup. Moose can play 1B, 2B and 3B plus DH. I like our INF as it stands now with Walsh at 1B, but he only had a great month. I'm a big Walsh fan but jury is still out on him. People say go get Bauer and another pitcher but free agent pitcher no guarantee they will sign with your team. If a deal can be made for Castillo I do it and take on Castellanos contract. Someone will have to tell Albert he is not going to play very much in 2021.

[halonatic13]

Plus Mike M is a lefty.  So we'd have 3 power lefty bats in Ohtani, Moose & Walsh.

 

2B - Fletcher

CF - Trout

3B - Rendon

DH - Ohtani

RF - Walsh

LF - Upton

1B - Moose

SS - Iglesias

C - Stassi

 

Castillo, Gray, Bundy, Heany, Canning, Oh oh oh Ohtani!

Edited December 21, 2020 by halonatic13

[Dtwncbad]

10 hours ago, Lou said:

Help me out here. If we can add $50M to the payroll, couldn't we just sign the necessary free agents and keep our prospects?

Gerrit Cole says hi.

[eligrba]

50 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Gerrit Cole says hi.

To play Captain Hindsight, if the Angels did sign Cole, they would probably be in the same position trying to improve the pitching with a lot less money.

After experiencing the pain of a Pujolesque contract, I am very happy the Angels are not linked to a pitcher for that much money and years.

[Dtwncbad]

46 minutes ago, eligrba said:

To play Captain Hindsight, if the Angels did sign Cole, they would probably be in the same position trying to improve the pitching with a lot less money.

After experiencing the pain of a Pujolesque contract, I am very happy the Angels are not linked to a pitcher for that much money and years.

I get what you are saying.  But for me, I will be “very happy” when I am legitimately optimistic that the rotation can compete for 162 and through a post season.

[floplag]

i think it depends largely on timing, and what available.
Right now we probably could get a better arm thru trade, then thru FA.  If the contract in question fills another need, then it makes much more sense.
if the team is in a win now mode, which i believe they should be, then you do something like this... although i still say i only do that to get the second arm, not the first.  Which may not be financially realistic.