All things being equal, which starter(s) do you prefer

[Hubs]

We know the ones that are trade targets cost less money and more prospect capital. 
 

Pick one from each group 

[Revad]

Gray and Ordorizzi would leave some $$ for catcher and/or left field, while really improving the rotation (and costing plenty in prospects unfortunately).

[Angelsfan1984]

Not interested in a bunch of 3s anymore. Go get an ace

[Chuck]

Sign Bauer, trade for Darvish and Contreras. You can stick your mom in RF and we're going to the world series! 

[CanadianHalo]

What I want: Bauer + Darvish or Sonny Gray

 

What I expect: another Billy Eppler-like special 

[Pancake Bear]

Bauer is pricy, but considering prospect cost, I'd rather pursue him than Marquez. Musgrove could maybe be had for a trade centered on Marsh, and he's doable salary-wise, so I feel like that'd be my ideal if we're grabbing two. 

Personally, I'd settle for just Bauer, though. 

[Angelsjunky]

Not sure what you mean by "all things being equal," but here are the starters with 2021 age and current team, career ERA, and current contract, ordered by 2019-20 fWAR:

Sonny Gray (31, Reds) 6.1 in 231.1 IP, 3.54, $20.3M 2021-22 (plus $12M team option for 2023)

Trevor Bauer (30, FA) 5.8 in 276 IP, 3.90, Free Agent

German Marquez (26, Rockies) 5.7 in 255.2 IP, 4.24, $34.4M 2021-23 (incl $2.5M buyout for 2024, with $16M team option)

Yu Darvish (34, Cubs) 5.6 in 254.2 IP, 3.47, $59M 2021-23

Liam Hendricks (32, FA) 5.3 in 110.1 IP, 4.10, Free Agent

Jake Odorizzi (31, FA) 4.3 in 172.2 IP (2018-19, dnp in '20), 3.92, Free Agent

Joe Musgrove (28, Pirates) 4.3 in 210 IP, 4.33, est. $7M in arbitration 2021-22

Masahiro Tanaka (32, FA) 4.1 in 230 IP, 3.74, Free Agent

Blake Snell (28, Rays) 3.3 in 157 IP, 3.24, $40.8M 2021-23

Carlos Carrasco (34, "Indians") 2.4 in 148 IP, 3.77, $28M 2021-22 (incl. $3M buyout for 2023)

Tomoyuki Sugano (31, FA) ? in 273.2 IP, 2.34 ERA in Japanese league, Free Agent

As you can see, all things being equal and Gray, Bauer, Marquez and Darvish are head and shoulders above the rest, all with a very good WAR and IP over the last year and a third (or so).

Odorizzi, Musgrove, and Tanaka are similar. Snell and Carrasco have missed a lot of time.

Hendricks and Sugano are outliers, with the former being an elite closer and the latter a complete unknown.

Based on the above, the most valuable pitcher is probably Marquez. Not only is he very young, but he's under club control for up to four more years at $12M AAV. He'd probably cost an arm and a leg to get (Adell, Jackson, Barria, Thaiss?).

Gray leads the pack in WAR, but is five years older than Marquez and with only two years of club control, so would cost less. Musgrove and Snell are of similar value, although Snell has the CY and World Series appearance, and thus would likely cost more; meaning, Musgrove would be better value. Darvish would probably cost similarly, because he's been better but is older and more expensive. Carrasco is getting up there in age and has declined and missed time, so would be a bit risky, but probably cheap.

Of the free agents, Bauer is the big fish, with a big drop to Odorizzi and Tanaka, who I think are similar in value. Again, Hendricks is his own thing and Sugano an unknown, but probably similar or a bit lower than Odorizzi/Tanaka.

Trade value/cost: Marquez > Gray > Snell > Musgrove > Darvish > Carrasco

Free agent cost: Bauer > Tanaka > Odorizzi > Hendricks > Sugano

Likely future value: Marquez > Musgrove/Snell > Gray/Bauer > Darvish/Sugano/Odorizzi/Hendricks > Carrasco

 

Edited December 17, 2020 by Angelsjunky

[Angelsjunky]

20 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Sign Bauer, trade for Darvish and Contreras. You can stick your mom in RF and we're going to the world series! 

[floplag]

All things are not equal. 
It all comes down to if Arte is willing to bust the budget, if he is go big or go home.  
If he isnt then Bauer is out as we dont have the money for him and other needs.
Its hard to really play this game based on that.
 

52 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Sign Bauer, trade for Darvish and Contreras. You can stick your mom in RF and we're going to the world series! 

If your going to go this route why not add Pederson too, at that point whats another 10M ish? 

[Second Base]

Basically, the way I perceived this was, "who are the best pitchers?" In which case, Darvish and Snell are.

[Warfarin]

What does it mean, "all things being equal?"  As in, every pitcher has the same cost?  I would pick the best SP if that's the case.

But the thing is, not all things are equal.  Some will cost a lot more.  Some will cost a lot less.  

[Pancake Bear]

14 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Basically, the way I perceived this was, "who are the best pitchers?" In which case, Darvish and Snell are.

I assumed more than 2020 is in view. I wouldn't count on Darvish as a long term option. Maybe 2 years. Possibly 3 if you get lucky. I picked Bauer and Musgrove because I'm concerned about Snell's durability - I trust Bauer's more long term, same with Musgrove over Darvish. Would Darvish and Snell be better in 2020? Sure. But the difference isn't enough to sacrifice future years. 

[Hubs]

By all things being equal, I mean knowing what each will likely cost which do you prefer. 
 

I want the Ace who doesn’t cost us prospects and more bullpen depth and a OF platoon option.

[Angels 1961]

Trade for Carrasco and sign a FA, even Happ who was not on list. Everyone wants Bauer but I think his price will leave nothing left for other needs. With Carrasco and Happ will still have money left and maybe Ohtani comes back.

[Junkballer]

If "all things being equal" removes speculation about durability and injury I take Snell as long as the trade doesn't take the cream of our pitching prospects.  I'm fine with Adell or Marsh as well as "overpaying" with other position players.  Three years of Snell gives them a TOR arm that can be supplemented with the freedom to let Minasian be Minasian with the flexibility in payroll it brings.  The farm needs to be maintained and managed well but not to Stoneman levels.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Pancake Bear said:

I assumed more than 2020 is in view. I wouldn't count on Darvish as a long term option. Maybe 2 years. Possibly 3 if you get lucky. I picked Bauer and Musgrove because I'm concerned about Snell's durability - I trust Bauer's more long term, same with Musgrove over Darvish. Would Darvish and Snell be better in 2020? Sure. But the difference isn't enough to sacrifice future years. 

It's a good thing Darvish is only under contract for three years then, isn't it? 

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, Angels 1961 said:

Trade for Carrasco and sign a FA, even Happ who was not on list. Everyone wants Bauer but I think his price will leave nothing left for other needs. With Carrasco and Happ will still have money left and maybe Ohtani comes back.

So not this. No no no.

[T.G.]

In a perfect world...

oh never mind

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

It's a good thing Darvish is only under contract for three years then, isn't it? 

Not really the issue, actually. Would rather have Musgrove, personally. 

[Angel Oracle]

I just want to see the Halos actually develop someone they drafted into anything above a #3 starter for more than one season.

Weave was the most recent (2010-2012).

[Dtwncbad]

All things being equal, I would want them all equally.

[Docwaukee]

I picked Bauer twice. 

[Lou]

32 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I picked Bauer twice. 

 

 

 

 

Bruin

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bruin

[Rollinghard]

Lot of people picking Snell but not much comment on why. I picked him too. Mostly based off his interview after the WS. Dude seriously studies the game/hitters and wants to win. It matters to him. He truly hates losing. Not all MLPs have this attribute. 

[wopphil]

I went Carrasco and Odorizzi. Both are good bets to stay healthy and relatively productive. Collectively, their salaries would be reasonable. Odorizzi would cost only money, and Carrasco might be available without having to give up Adell.