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Did Trevor Bauer pull a Rocky III


Docwaukee

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Remember when Rocky trained for his second fight with Clubber and Apollo knew they would have to go at a pace that would only sustain a few rounds?  

Did Bauer do a version of that for 2020?  

Knowing that he'd only be making 10 or 11 starts as opposed to 34, did he approach the season differently and create a pace that would be unsustainable for an entire season knowing that the shortened schedule was his free agent showcase?   Like a reliever who's stuff ticks up in shorter stints?  

Are we putting too much stock in his 2020 performance as an indicator of what he's capable of going forward or did he truly 'figure something out'?  

Because before this year, his 2018 season was the outlier to the rest of his career.  And while it shows what he's capable of, are one full season and one shortened season's worth of numbers enough to pay him 25mil per to find out which of those pitchers he really is?   

Is he the next Max Scherzer or does he turn into a pumpkin after the age of 30?  

I think it's a fair question.  I, personally, lean toward wanting to take the chance but there's a fair amount of risk here and you can't be wrong because if he's only mediocre over the 3-4 years it takes away a healthy chunk of the budget.  

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25 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Remember when Rocky trained for his second fight with Clubber and Apollo knew they would have to go at a pace that would only sustain a few rounds?  

Did Bauer do a version of that for 2020?  

Knowing that he'd only be making 10 or 11 starts as opposed to 34, did he approach the season differently and create a pace that would be unsustainable for an entire season knowing that the shortened schedule was his free agent showcase?   Like a reliever who's stuff ticks up in shorter stints?  

Are we putting too much stock in his 2020 performance as an indicator of what he's capable of going forward or did he truly 'figure something out'?  

Because before this year, his 2018 season was the outlier to the rest of his career.  And while it shows what he's capable of, are one full season and one shortened season's worth of numbers enough to pay him 25mil per to find out which of those pitchers he really is?   

Is he the next Max Scherzer or does he turn into a pumpkin after the age of 30?  

I think it's a fair question.  I, personally, lean toward wanting to take the chance but there's a fair amount of risk here and you can't be wrong because if he's only mediocre over the 3-4 years it takes away a healthy chunk of the budget.  

He has openly been experimenting with different grip... Enhancers... To test the impact on his spin rates. It seems he may have utilized these... Techniques... last year. Check out his spin rates.

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25 minutes ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

He has openly been experimenting with different grip... Enhancers... To test the impact on his spin rates. It seems he may have utilized these... Techniques... last year. Check out his spin rates.

This has been my view as well when people (a lot) point out his career numbers are noticeably lower than 2020 (and 2018). But it's possible that's wrong and he just had a career year in 2018 and a nice run in 2020 that isn't sustainable long term. I don't think I'm wrong, but it wouldn't be the first time. 

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1 hour ago, CanadianHalo said:

If anyone was going to figure out how to drastically increase their spin rate legally it would be Bauer

I mean -- I think it's more likely he found a new grip (or at least one that works the best for him) that he uses in the same way everyone else does. I wouldn't put it past a petty-ass manager to try and call him out in a game since he has been pretty vocal about it, but most of the league it too scared of touching the matter. 

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12 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Remember when Rocky trained for his second fight with Clubber and Apollo knew they would have to go at a pace that would only sustain a few rounds?  

Did Bauer do a version of that for 2020?  

Knowing that he'd only be making 10 or 11 starts as opposed to 34, did he approach the season differently and create a pace that would be unsustainable for an entire season knowing that the shortened schedule was his free agent showcase?   Like a reliever who's stuff ticks up in shorter stints?  

Are we putting too much stock in his 2020 performance as an indicator of what he's capable of going forward or did he truly 'figure something out'?  

Because before this year, his 2018 season was the outlier to the rest of his career.  And while it shows what he's capable of, are one full season and one shortened season's worth of numbers enough to pay him 25mil per to find out which of those pitchers he really is?   

Is he the next Max Scherzer or does he turn into a pumpkin after the age of 30?  

I think it's a fair question.  I, personally, lean toward wanting to take the chance but there's a fair amount of risk here and you can't be wrong because if he's only mediocre over the 3-4 years it takes away a healthy chunk of the budget.  

Bauer has said as much, multiple times.  He's a good pitcher who's always had it in him to be more, in that respect he is essentially a better/healthier Andrew Heaney/Tyler Skaggs.  With Bauer its always been about what he should be .vs what he actually was.  While there is risk (when isn't there in FA), at least he's shown he's capable of performing to those expectations put upon him.   But when its all said and done, he's more Corbin than Cole and the money needs to reflect that reality IMO.

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5 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Remember when Rocky trained for his second fight with Clubber and Apollo knew they would have to go at a pace that would only sustain a few rounds?  

Did Bauer do a version of that for 2020?  

Knowing that he'd only be making 10 or 11 starts as opposed to 34, did he approach the season differently and create a pace that would be unsustainable for an entire season knowing that the shortened schedule was his free agent showcase?   Like a reliever who's stuff ticks up in shorter stints?  

Are we putting too much stock in his 2020 performance as an indicator of what he's capable of going forward or did he truly 'figure something out'?  

Because before this year, his 2018 season was the outlier to the rest of his career.  And while it shows what he's capable of, are one full season and one shortened season's worth of numbers enough to pay him 25mil per to find out which of those pitchers he really is?   

Is he the next Max Scherzer or does he turn into a pumpkin after the age of 30?  

I think it's a fair question.  I, personally, lean toward wanting to take the chance but there's a fair amount of risk here and you can't be wrong because if he's only mediocre over the 3-4 years it takes away a healthy chunk of the budget.  

YUP. 

I think even if he becomes a form of mediocre it'd still be an upgrade to what we have. 

I think we can all agree that this squad needs a little fire and sass and Bauer is that guy to bring some emotion.

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6 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Remember when Rocky trained for his second fight with Clubber and Apollo knew they would have to go at a pace that would only sustain a few rounds?  

Did Bauer do a version of that for 2020?  

Knowing that he'd only be making 10 or 11 starts as opposed to 34, did he approach the season differently and create a pace that would be unsustainable for an entire season knowing that the shortened schedule was his free agent showcase?   Like a reliever who's stuff ticks up in shorter stints?  

Are we putting too much stock in his 2020 performance as an indicator of what he's capable of going forward or did he truly 'figure something out'?  

Because before this year, his 2018 season was the outlier to the rest of his career.  And while it shows what he's capable of, are one full season and one shortened season's worth of numbers enough to pay him 25mil per to find out which of those pitchers he really is?   

Is he the next Max Scherzer or does he turn into a pumpkin after the age of 30?  

I think it's a fair question.  I, personally, lean toward wanting to take the chance but there's a fair amount of risk here and you can't be wrong because if he's only mediocre over the 3-4 years it takes away a healthy chunk of the budget.  

You couldn't say this earlier before I became emotionally invested in courting Bauer?

Now I have seeds of doubt growing about Bauer.....thanks.

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Interesting thought @Dochalo.

If you look at his BABIP, last year, it is significantly lower than his career rate (.215 vs. .294), which almost certainly contributed to his strong season. Additionally, batting average against was also sharply lower (.159 vs. .233). This was on top of a velocity decrease of approximately 1 mph, too. His K/9 rate was the highest of his career (12.33 vs. 9.67) and his BB/9 rate was the lowest of his career (2.10 vs. 3.43).

To account for all of this, an increase in spin rate, as others have mentioned here, combined with increased use of his cutter and slider (more vs. RHH's) led to some amazing Whiff% results (41.7% and 33.7%, respectively). Curveball had a great Whiff% too (38.5%).

All of this led to an increase in flyballs that stayed in the park or in the infield. Spending half of his games in Anaheim would be conducive to this profile and the A.L. West in general.

I think it is all intentional so I think we should go get him, he is the best option for this team right now that doesn't pull away from our farm system.

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2 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Bauer has said as much, multiple times.  He's a good pitcher who's always had it in him to be more, in that respect he is essentially a better/healthier of Andrew Heaney/Tyler Skaggs.  With Bauer its always been about what he should be .vs what he actually was.  While there is risk (when isn't there in FA), at least he's shown he's capable of performing to those expectations put upon him.   But when its all said and done, he's more Corbin than Cole and the money needs to reflect that reality IMO.

If we're focusing on acquiring pitchers for what they should be instead of what they are out have been, I'd probably be in on Joe Musgrove. For the amount of money Bauer will require, you'd prefer a heck of a lot more certainty.

Right now, Trevor Bauer to me, feels a lot like Nate Eovaldi from two years ago. You saw the flashes of dominance heading into free agency. He signed a big fat contract with the Red Sox and had since reverted right back to who he was before, which is a hard throwing back end starter or reliever with injury issues.

Bauer will get ace money, and then he's going to go right back to being a dynamic 3rd or 4th starter.

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Can I just say, that I don't think anyone should expect an "Ace" out of Bauer? I mean, if we signed him, he'd be our number 1 guy. But if you realistically expected a Cole or Verlander out of him then that's on you.

Yes, he will get paid "Ace" money. Unfortunately that's the cost of pitching now. He's not going to be a Cole or Verlander or Scherzer. But he's on the next tier of pitchers and I believe he'll be worth his contact for about 3-4 years.

Edited by tdawg87
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I've kind of cooled a bit on signing Bauer. He definitely improves the team, but they can't allocate all their resources on one player, even one as good as Bauer. Ideally, they can acquire a top of the rotation starter who is on a cheaper contract and spread the money around on C, RP, SP depth, and OF.

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10 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

This has been my view as well when people (a lot) point out his career numbers are noticeably lower than 2020 (and 2018). But it's possible that's wrong and he just had a career year in 2018 and a nice run in 2020 that isn't sustainable long term. I don't think I'm wrong, but it wouldn't be the first time. 

https://bastian.mlblogs.com/there-is-a-problem-in-baseball-right-now-c9b15b7e3ed

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Taking the thread seriously (I know, my mistake)...I cannot think of two things more different in the sporting world than:

- 10 (or 35) Pitching starts spaced out across many months with at least 4 days between them.

and

- 12 rounds of heavyweight boxing occurring in the space of just a few hours.  Especially fictional boxing happening only in a movie.

 

Sorry, but it's a completely busted analogy.  Career years do happen, but not because of conscious choice of some short-term effort vs long-term endurance thing.

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2 hours ago, Lazorko Saves said:

Taking the thread seriously (I know, my mistake)...I cannot think of two things more different in the sporting world than:

- 10 (or 35) Pitching starts spaced out across many months with at least 4 days between them.

and

- 12 rounds of heavyweight boxing occurring in the space of just a few hours.  Especially fictional boxing happening only in a movie.

 

Sorry, but it's a completely busted analogy.  Career years do happen, but not because of conscious choice of some short-term effort vs long-term endurance thing.

yes.  you must take a comparison of Bauer to Rocky III seriously.  

the point - which you clearly missed - is that there is a difference between a pitcher knowing he has to make 10 starts over a couple months than 35 starts over 6 months.  

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1 hour ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

So back then, he said he could increase his spin rates by x amount if he used certain substances.

Then in 2020 he increased his spin rates by x.

That's my point.

Ok. I thought that was generally known. Has been speculated quite a bit this season (I don't remember if it has at AW or not). Is using pine tar/something similar (as he likely started doing more of) the sole reason for his improvement? I don't know, but I suppose it is possible, though it seems a stretch. Will he stop using it going forward (i.e. He only used it to get paid)? I doubt it. 

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28 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

the point - which you clearly missed - is that there is a difference between a pitcher knowing he has to make 10 starts over a couple months than 35 starts over 6 months.  

No, I understood, I just disagree with your hypothesis.  That's all.  Not a big deal.

You don't magically have better command, movement, velocity (whatever ingredients you think make up performing better as a pitcher)...just because you know you're making fewer starts over a year.  Ask anybody who pitched competitively.

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