Do the Angels really need to sign or trade for two starting pitchers?

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

If we sign a FA pitcher, we could you you one of our current SP pitchers as part of the trade.

[Angel Oracle]

On 12/15/2020 at 6:40 PM, Stradling said:

What would a trade for Musgrave look like?  Could you get him for a package that includes Barria and Jackson?  

How about Musgrave and Jacob Stallings, to also fill need for a catcher?

[Chuck]

I agree with the majority here that you need to bring in two starting pitchers. One an ace, whether that's Bauer or a trade for Snell or Darvish. Another via a FA signing like Odorizzi, Walker or Tanaka. 

[failos]

I don’t get my hopes up for Ohtani anymore. So I picked him.

[Hubs]

One thing to note, they won’t be likely using a 6-man rotation if Ohtani is not a part of It. 
 

So Those of you who Want two starters know that means a rotation to open the year of your two guys, Heaney, Bundy and Canning. 

Sign two guys and everyone’s healthy and Ohtani isn’t in the rotation.

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, Hubs said:

One thing to note, they won’t be likely using a 6-man rotation if Ohtani is not a part of It. 
 

So Those of you who Want two starters know that means a rotation to open the year of your two guys, Heaney, Bundy and Canning. 

Sign two guys and everyone’s healthy and Ohtani isn’t in the rotation.

Correct.

[Hubs]

I guess this comes down to having faith in Ohtani and Barria to be good starters. 

[BTH]

15 minutes ago, Hubs said:

One thing to note, they won’t be likely using a 6-man rotation if Ohtani is not a part of It. 
 

So Those of you who Want two starters know that means a rotation to open the year of your two guys, Heaney, Bundy and Canning. 

Sign two guys and everyone’s healthy and Ohtani isn’t in the rotation.

If the Angels sign two starters, the rotation is Starter A, Starter B, Bundy, Heaney, and Canning with Barria in the bullpen. If Ohtani is healthy, then he would be a 6th starter starting once a week.

You are acting if bumping Barria and/or Sandoval out of the rotation is bad thing, but it's actually a great thing, as it gives the Angels more depth.

[Hubs]

50 minutes ago, Trendon said:

If the Angels sign two starters, the rotation is Starter A, Starter B, Bundy, Heaney, and Canning with Barria in the bullpen. If Ohtani is healthy, then he would be a 6th starter starting once a week.

You are acting if bumping Barria and/or Sandoval out of the rotation is bad thing, but it's actually a great thing, as it gives the Angels more depth.

If they did what you suggest, with all the days off, everyone would get around 27 starts. No free agent SP wants to pitch less.

[AngelsLakersFan]

11 minutes ago, Hubs said:

If they did what you suggest, with all the days off, everyone would get around 27 starts. No free agent SP wants to pitch less.

I cant see any scenario in which someone like a Trevor Bauer is not given every opportunity to make over 30 starts this year.

[stormngt]

On 12/15/2020 at 10:10 PM, Pancake Bear said:

I think if it's the right guy, you could maybe get away with one SP, but you're better off playing it safe with a second, even if it's someone low end. 

Bundy, Heaney, SP acquisition, Canning - makes four. Assuming Ohtani pitches, he's almost certainly the sixth guy. That leaves room for one more. You could use Barria or Sandoval or Pena in that spot if money is tight, but ideally they're depth. 

Pena was good put of the Pen last year.  He was barely mediocre for a few innings as a starter.  Keep him in the pen.

I am concerned with Barria in the pen as he has never really looked good there.

[Hubs]

12 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Pena was good put of the Pen last year.  He was barely mediocre for a few innings as a starter.  Keep him in the pen.

I am concerned with Barria in the pen as he has never really looked good there.

Yeah you should look at the numbers.

Pena in 2019 was our best starter (even though they used the opener for him)

Barria isn’t a bullpen guy and without options I’m concerned about that.

Sandoval is a better fit for the 6 spot bc he can be sent down and brought up when they skip his spot. 

Barria will be in the rotation or he will be traded.

[Hubs]

52 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I cant see any scenario in which someone like a Trevor Bauer is not given every opportunity to make over 30 starts this year.

Exactly my point on why we don’t need two starters.

I’d rather have Gray / Realmuto / Pederson 

or Bauer / Flowers / Pederson 

than Odorozzi / Sugano / Flowers

[Stradling]

If you don’t acquire two starters that are better than who we currently have then no reason to get two, unless you trade one.  

[Hubs]

Just now, Stradling said:

If you don’t acquire two starters that are better than who we currently have then no reason to get two, unless you trade one.  

Exactly!!!

I think Barria and Sandoval are fine guys for the last spot in the rotation. Even if Ohtani is a full time hitter, which essentially moves them to a regular five man rotation. 

I’d rather have a competent defensive outfield and a catcher who can hit.

They need an Ace.

 

[AngelsLakersFan]

5 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Exactly my point on why we don’t need two starters.

I’d rather have Gray / Realmuto / Pederson / Flowers

or Bauer / Flowers / Pederson 

than Odorozzi / Sugano / Flowers

I don't expect we'll end up with any of those groupings. We probably have ~$30m to spend plus prospect capital, and someone like Bauer eats up almost of all of it.

[Hubs]

7 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I don't expect we'll end up with any of those groupings. We probably have ~$30m to spend plus prospect capital, and someone like Bauer eats up almost of all of it.

Yeah I think they have a bit more than $30. They have 131 in guaranteed contracts, a projected 17 in arbitration, and 8 in club control and that makes it 156, which is a bit less than the spotrac or fangraphs total which use the higher arbitration numbers.

I think that gives them 35, and with contracts being how they’ve been for lower tier guys I think that translates to each of those groups well. 

Zunino just got 4 million so Flowers gets like 2.5 or 3. Pederson gets 6-7 In this market, on a prove it deal since he struggled last season. I think Realmuto gets 22-27 per and Gray is on the books for 10. 

That’s a little higher— say 38. So probably out of reach. Flowers obviously shouldn’t be in that group.  

Bauer gets close to 30, but hopefully they pay him less in years one and two so they can get the other two positions.

And yes the third is likely under, I’ve seen Sugano from 10-12, Odorozzi at 13-14, and so that’s closer to the 30, but you’ve got to get a platoon left fielder so maybe you end up with him then and maybe you can squeeze it in.
 

 

 

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, stormngt said:

I am concerned with Barria in the pen as he has never really looked good there.

 

2 hours ago, Hubs said:

One thing to note, they won’t be likely using a 6-man rotation if Ohtani is not a part of It. 

Good points. Ohtani is kind've irrelevant to the number. It'll either be 6 him or 5 without him, most likely. 

The question of Barria is worth considering also. Doug White and Ausmus mishandled Barria in 2019, which may be why he struggled considerably that year and was much better in 2018 and in a small sample of innings in 2020. For Barria, using him as depth (as I suggested before) is iffy given his shaky performance out of the pen, and he can't be optioned, nor does he appear to have a ton of trade value. 

Barring a trade, Bundy and Heaney are locks for the rotation. That leaves three more spots (take note on Ohtani above). At least one for certain will come from outside. Whether we like the acquisition or not, one will be a sign or a trade. For the last two, we have multiple options. 

One option would be bringing in a second pitching acquisition without trading away one of Bundy, Heaney, Canning, or Barria. (I mention all of them, not because I expect (e.g.) Bundy to be traded, but just because it is theoretically possible.)

I'm not sure that's the option you want if it's a low end guy because it means you're either sending Canning down to the minors (which I find it hard to believe won't be a problem for his development) or using Barria in the pen/trying to sneak him through waivers (waivers would be idiotic; pen could work or could implode spectacularly).

If you're doing something like sign Bauer and trade for (e.g.) Musgrove, Barria might be in that trade, so it could work itself out.  But I feel like if you're going to bring in two guys, they need to both be good options, otherwise you might as well stick with what you've got. If we want a low end option, the better move might be identifying someone with options who could be a workable injury fill-in.

In either case, that would leave you with Pena, Sandoval, Suarez (and Peters?) as depth. Possibly a few others. 

So, I feel like if it's a legit upgrade and/or you're moving one of the current top 5 (not including Ohtani in that number at the moment), bringing in two would make sense. If you're just bringing in a second guy who is maybe a 5, that feels to me like it could create as many problems as it solves. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

5 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

 

Good points. Ohtani is kind've irrelevant to the number. It'll either be 6 him or 5 without him, most likely. 

The question of Barria is worth considering also. Doug White and Ausmus mishandled Barria in 2019, which may be why he struggled considerably that year and was much better in 2018 and in a small sample of innings in 2020. For Barria, using him as depth (as I suggested before) is iffy given his shaky performance out of the pen, and he can't be optioned, nor does he appear to have a ton of trade value. 

Barring a trade, Bundy and Heaney are locks for the rotation. That leaves three more spots (take note on Ohtani above). At least one for certain will come from outside. Whether we like the acquisition or not, one will be a sign or a trade. For the last two, we have multiple options. 

One option would be bringing in a second pitching acquisition without trading away one of Bundy, Heaney, Canning, or Barria. (I mention all of them, not because I expect (e.g.) Bundy to be traded, but just because it is theoretically possible.)

I'm not sure that's the option you want if it's a low end guy because it means you're either sending Canning down to the minors (which I find it hard to believe won't be a problem for his development) or using Barria in the pen/trying to sneak him through waivers (waivers would be idiotic; pen could work or could implode spectacularly).

If you're doing something like sign Bauer and trade for (e.g.) Musgrove, Barria might be in that trade, so it could work itself out.  But I feel like if you're going to bring in two guys, they need to both be good options, otherwise you might as well stick with what you've got. If we want a low end option, the better move might be identifying someone with options who could be a workable injury fill-in.

In either case, that would leave you with Pena, Sandoval, Suarez (and Peters?) as depth. Possibly a few others. 

So, I feel like if it's a legit upgrade and/or you're moving one of the current top 5 (not including Ohtani in that number at the moment), bringing in two would make sense. If you're just bringing in a second guy who is maybe a 5, that feels to me like it could create as many problems as it solves. 

The team needs to figure out where the innings are coming from when Heaney, Canning and Ohtani are on the DL. Hopefully we avoid losing all three at the same time but odds are there will be a stretch where at least 2 of them aren't pitching and I think it's more than reasonable to expect at least one of them to be out at all times. 

[Pancake Bear]

11 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

The team needs to figure out where the innings are coming from when Heaney, Canning and Ohtani are on the DL. Hopefully we avoid losing all three at the same time but odds are there will be a stretch where at least 2 of them aren't pitching and I think it's more than reasonable to expect at least one of them to be out at all times. 

At this point, I'm counting Ohtani as a bonus. I don't now whether or how much he'll play, so if he does, just subtract from what's needed from the other five.

Lets say we sign/trade for one starter and keep everyone else. Something like: New Guy, Bundy, Barria, Sandoval, Pena.

Is that ideal? No. But injury losses never are, and as I noted in the last comment, it's not just as easy as adding two guys. And I don't believe it is feasible, as some have suggested, to just 'stock up pitchers' for inevitable injuries. Until that suggestion deals with the question of what to do with the other pitchers (trading one of Heaney or Canning is possible, but I don't think it is likely enough to be expected at any reasonable level), then we need to quit it.

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 minute ago, Pancake Bear said:

At this point, I'm counting Ohtani as a bonus. I don't now whether or how much he'll play, so if he does, just subtract from what's needed from the other five.

Lets say we sign/trade for one starter and keep everyone else. Something like: New Guy, Bundy, Barria, Sandoval, Pena.

Is that ideal? No. But injury losses never are, and as I noted in the last comment, it's not just as easy as adding two guys. And I don't believe it is feasible, as some have suggested, to just 'stock up pitchers' for inevitable injuries. Until that suggestion deals with the question of what to do with the other pitchers (trading one of Heaney or Canning is possible, but I don't think it is likely enough to be expected at any reasonable level), then we need to quit it.

It's important to consider that sliding Sandoval and Pena into the rotation puts a big hit on the bullpen. So if the solution is to sign a guy like Hand then I am all ears. I think it's totally reasonable, in a best case scenario situation, to stash Canning in AAA for a bit. These 'problems' have a way of working themselves out. What it really comes down to is what they can realistically add. I love the idea of adding Bauer but if he's your only additional to the pitching staff moving forward I'll be a little concerned, and I am still not convinced we can afford him.

[Pancake Bear]

11 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

It's important to consider that sliding Sandoval and Pena into the rotation puts a big hit on the bullpen.

Sure, but I would also wonder how stretched out pitchers are for 2021 regardless, given how little they pitched in 2020. I think the bullpen is a major need this offseason. I'd like to see one more good long relief option there, personally. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

2 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Sure, but I would also wonder how stretched out pitchers are for 2021 regardless, given how little they pitched in 2020. I think the bullpen is a major need this offseason. I'd like to see one more good long relief option there, personally. 

Absolutely, and thats one of the major reasons I like Pena and Sandoval in the pen, not just their ability to have their stuff play up but also their ability to provide length out of the pen. More important that a starter/reliever distinction Minasian needs to be looking to add quality innings to the roster.

[stormngt]

3 hours ago, Hubs said:

Yeah you should look at the numbers.

Pena in 2019 was our best starter (even though they used the opener for him)

Barria isn’t a bullpen guy and without options I’m concerned about that.

Sandoval is a better fit for the 6 spot bc he can be sent down and brought up when they skip his spot. 

Barria will be in the rotation or he will be traded.

Sorry but in my mind starting just 2 or 3 innings is not a starter in the traditional sense.  It's more like a bull pen position.

Edited December 18, 2020 by stormngt

[BTH]

4 hours ago, Hubs said:

If they did what you suggest, with all the days off, everyone would get around 27 starts. No free agent SP wants to pitch less.

There's no way the Angels- or any team- makes it through the entire season with no injuries and uses just 5 starting pitchers.

People are going to get hurt and they are going to shuffle the rotation around off days to ensure that they can maximize how many starts they get from their best starters.