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IGNORED

Trade Adell (+ club control through 2026) for Snell (3 years, $42M left on contract) straight up?


Capital_Dave

Trade Adell (+ club control through 2026) for Snell (3 years, $42M left on contract) straight up?  

71 members have voted

  1. 1. Trade Adell (+ club control through 2026) for Snell (3 years, $42M left on contract) straight up?

    • Yes
      53
    • No
      18


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1 hour ago, Lou said:

Ok, 1 more time.....

 

 

UPTON HAS A NTC. 

 

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

and a daughter with a rare disease.  

 

1 hour ago, Lou said:

Yep. He's not uprooting his family and going across the country, especially during a pandemic. 

So what you are saying is that he could be paired with a prospect and be traded......to Tampa.....for pitching......because Rosenthal

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I would do this pending parts required. 
i suspect Adell alone wont get it, perhaps Adell and Barria + ... 
I dont think hes a right fielder at this point.  Small sample i know from what we saw last season but hes got a long way to go to get there.. likely lands in left and his value drops in left.  I could be wrong but thats my take today.
Make that deal, sign Pederson or Puig, sign Bauer, and print playoff tickets. 
Its budget busting, but i think thats what needs to be done for a couple years to do what needs to happen or we let the albatross kill another season. 

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1 hour ago, floplag said:

I would do this pending parts required. 
i suspect Adell alone wont get it, perhaps Adell and Barria + ... 
I dont think hes a right fielder at this point.  Small sample i know from what we saw last season but hes got a long way to go to get there.. likely lands in left and his value drops in left.  I could be wrong but thats my take today.
Make that deal, sign Pederson or Puig, sign Bauer, and print playoff tickets. 
Its budget busting, but i think thats what needs to be done for a couple years to do what needs to happen or we let the albatross kill another season. 

Watch Arte blow the budget and become WS favorites for a few years then we all forgive him for Pujols, Hamilton and Upton.

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1 hour ago, eligrba said:

 

 

So what you are saying is that he could be paired with a prospect and be traded......to Tampa.....for pitching......because Rosenthal

I know most disagree with what writers say (including myself) and that we think we know Upton better than them, but I don't think Rosenthal is a click-bait hungry guy as other writers are. He's very well respected compared to others so I don't think he'd say something that isn't a far out idea. 

Would rather him say it than Bob Nightengale 

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49 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Watch Arte blow the budget and become WS favorites for a few years then we all forgive him for Pujols, Hamilton and Upton.

Its there and ripe for the picking if he wants to, this is the window, he need only ok to funds.  Here is where we find out how badly he truly wants to win in my opinion. 
 

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If we can make this trade, I say say Run and don't walk and make that trade.

We have more than enough bats, we desperately need better pitching.  

Wasn't that impressed with Adell, hopefully he didn't ruin his trade value with his lousy subpar perfomance last season. 

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1 hour ago, mtangelsfan said:

To me this would be like trading Adell for CJ Wilson about the same time in his career as when we signed him.

My initial response to this was "No way - Snell is much better than CJ," but let's take a look.

Blake Snell (age 28 in 2021) - last three years: 8.1 fWAR, or ~4 WAR per 32 starts. Last three years ERA: 1.89, 4.29, 3.24.

CJ Wilson (age 31 in his first year in LA) - two previous years (only years as a starter): 9.3 WAR, or ~4.5 WAR per 32 starts. ERAs: 3.35, 2.94.

So it is actually a pretty good comp, with the exception that Wilson was three years older than Snell. But CJ was actually the 9th best major league starter in the two years before the Angels signed him, according to fWAR, while Snell is 25th from 2018-20, tied with Kershaw, actually.

Now the worrying factor on Snell is his rising FIP: from 2.95 in 2018 to 3.32 to 4.35. FIP isn't as useful for in-time performance, but it does have predictive value. Meaning, this could explain why the Rays--a very stat-heavy org--is putting him on the trade block.

Snell's peripherals have actually been pretty consistent the last three years. The main change has been more HR: 0.8/9 IP in his CY year, to 1.18 in 2019, 1.80 this year - although this could be because of small sample size. 

His velocity hasn't gone down much: average FB of 95.8 in 2018, then 95.6, 95.1 in 2020.

The bottom line is that Snell doesn't come without risk - like Bauer, actually, although probably more so. I'd probably still do the trade, as the Angels could really use him and would be trading from a position of great prospect depth, but there are some concerns.

 

Edited by Angelsjunky
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1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

My initial response to this was "No way - Snell is much better than CJ," but let's take a look.

Blake Snell (age 28 in 2021) - last three years: 8.1 fWAR, or ~4 WAR per 32 starts. Last three years ERA: 1.89, 4.29, 3.24.

CJ Wilson (age 31 in his first year in LA) - two previous years (only years as a starter): 9.3 WAR, or ~4.5 WAR per 32 starts. ERAs: 3.35, 2.94.

So it is actually a pretty good comp, with the exception that Wilson was three years older than Snell. But CJ was actually the 9th best major league starter in the two years before the Angels signed him, according to fWAR, while Snell is 25th from 2018-20, tied with Kershaw, actually.

Now the worrying factor on Snell is his rising FIP: from 2.95 in 2018 to 3.32 to 4.35. FIP isn't as useful for in-time performance, but it does have predictive value. Meaning, this could explain why the Rays--a very stat-heavy org--is putting him on the trade block.

Snell's peripherals have actually been pretty consistent the last three years. The main change has been more HR: 0.8/9 IP in his CY year, to 1.18 in 2019, 1.80 this year - although this could be because of small sample size. 

His velocity hasn't gone down much: average FB of 95.8 in 2018, then 95.6, 95.1 in 2020.

The bottom line is that Snell doesn't come without risk - like Bauer, actually, although probably more so. I'd probably still do the trade, as the Angels could really use him and would be trading from a position of great prospect depth, but there are some concerns.

 

Now I am having flashbacks to Scott Kazmir, who missed his entire age 28 season.

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2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

My initial response to this was "No way - Snell is much better than CJ," but let's take a look.

Blake Snell (age 28 in 2021) - last three years: 8.1 fWAR, or ~4 WAR per 32 starts. Last three years ERA: 1.89, 4.29, 3.24.

CJ Wilson (age 31 in his first year in LA) - two previous years (only years as a starter): 9.3 WAR, or ~4.5 WAR per 32 starts. ERAs: 3.35, 2.94.

So it is actually a pretty good comp, with the exception that Wilson was three years older than Snell. But CJ was actually the 9th best major league starter in the two years before the Angels signed him, according to fWAR, while Snell is 25th from 2018-20, tied with Kershaw, actually.

Now the worrying factor on Snell is his rising FIP: from 2.95 in 2018 to 3.32 to 4.35. FIP isn't as useful for in-time performance, but it does have predictive value. Meaning, this could explain why the Rays--a very stat-heavy org--is putting him on the trade block.

Snell's peripherals have actually been pretty consistent the last three years. The main change has been more HR: 0.8/9 IP in his CY year, to 1.18 in 2019, 1.80 this year - although this could be because of small sample size. 

His velocity hasn't gone down much: average FB of 95.8 in 2018, then 95.6, 95.1 in 2020.

The bottom line is that Snell doesn't come without risk - like Bauer, actually, although probably more so. I'd probably still do the trade, as the Angels could really use him and would be trading from a position of great prospect depth, but there are some concerns.

 

Thanks AJ you are now giving me flashbacks to Scott Kazmir, who had a high FIP compared to his actual ERA in the year prior to when we traded for him. 😄

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14 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Let this sink in.  Aside from 2018, Snell has averaged just under 5 innings a start.

Is that because of a) pitch counts, b) TB being very conservative with starting pitching innings, or c) endurance concerns?

It must be B, right?  They do this with all of their starters, not just Snell.  For them it seems to be an organizational philosophy, more about limiting times through the order than innings.  And they've built a team stocked with effective relievers that complements this strategy.

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2 hours ago, JocStrapling said:

Adell does not rank as  high on  MLB FO boards as you guys think, despite his swagger, Minor league success, the hype and this sites love affair with him.  Even considering his age,  his weaknesses were completely exposed and they are glaring. Weaknesses that are historically hard to fix such as his long swing, trouble hitting anything that’s not straight, and inability to track in the outfield, which btw his defense apparently has always been somewhat of a concern.  Sadly the dude is just another AA phenom and that’s likely it.  Comparison could be a Gary Mathews Jr type without the one big year. 

How do you know this?  He was ranked that high with the holes in his game.   It’s not like they were just exposed now.  We just learned about him, we just saw him play 40 or so games.  However all of the guys doing the evaluating have seen him play and still ranked him that high.  Will he be a star or super star?  I have no idea.  What I do know is comparing him to GM jr is not a great comparison because their games are TOTALLY different. 

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I pitched it in the other Blake Snell thread, but there’s only one Upton trade idea I could come up with that would make any sense when considering his NTC, his daughter, his contract, his seeming West Coast preference, etc., and that would be San Diego acquiring him - and Blake Snell.

Padres get another proven frontline arm to help their kids and a solid vet for LF. By taking on Upton and a bulk of his salary, it lightens the load of prospects they have to surrender to keep their momentum going now and maintain some mid-term payroll flexibility. It aligns with their big win-now (next 2-3 years at least) push. 

Angels shed a huge amount of payroll, allowing them to pursue two of Bauer, Darvish, Odorizzi, Sugano, Realmuto, Ozuna, Joc, whatever, multiple relievers, Gray, Marquez, Duffy, etc. without the financial concerns. Maybe the Angels take Kiermaier’s contract in the deal to help Tampa further and plug part of their OF hole up, maybe also receive someone like Joey Lucchesi or Anderson Espinoza as well. Sure, not the impact of Snell, but perhaps someone still affordable, useful, or controlled. The real win for the Angels is the money cleared.

Maybe Tampa ropes back, at minimum, a top catching prospect from San Diego (Campusano? Mejia?) plus others, from both orgs. Thaiss, Rengifo, Barria, whatever. They shed maybe their only two guaranteed contracts in the deal. 

That’s just a rough idea. Yeah, it makes sense that the Angels could just go after Snell on their own, but maybe freeing up money instead and helping facilitate the deal for another team would be more beneficial. On the surface, San Diego is the only team I see as being a destination Upton might be valued in, and might be willing to waive a NTC for.

 

Edited by totdprods
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Instead of Snell, perhaps we should just look into acquiring pitchers from organizations that we know are desperately trying to unload payroll - the Cubs.

Darvish likely has a fairly reasonable trade cost that doesn't involve Adell or Marsh.  We can build a trade around Jackson, Thaiss, Barria, and a lower tier prospect.  We can ask the Cubs to absorb ~10mil (~3.3mil per year) of his remaining contract.

Should leave plenty of room to add another SP as well as other pieces that we need.

 

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