Assuming we have ~30mil left to spend now, what would you do next?

[Pancake Bear]

14 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

2). Backloaded does nothing to help manage the luxury tax because they go by AAV.

The luxury tax is irrelevant and has been for a while. This has been known definitively for several years. Why do people keep bringing it up?

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

Can we ever discuss signing a free agent without people jamming the suggestion of a backloaded deal into the conversation?

1). Look, most free agent signing are “backloaded” by the length of the contract.

2). Backloaded does nothing to help manage the luxury tax because they go by AAV.

3). Arte doesn’t have a money problem.  He simply budgets.  Backloading doesn’t really help you stay on a budget when it simply creates inefficiency later.

Maybe Bauer gets a backloaded deal I guess.  But I would bet there is a 99% chance he simply gets a normal contract.

 

no one is saying to pay him 10m in the first year and 40m in the last.  But punting 5+ mil down the road a bit helps meet current needs.  

money is worth less in the future.  

[Warfarin]

4 hours ago, Dochalo said:

no one is saying to pay him 10m in the first year and 40m in the last.  But punting 5+ mil down the road a bit helps meet current needs.  

money is worth less in the future.  

Yeah, exactly.

So for example, if Bauer has a 6/150 deal, he could get:  20mil, then 22, 24, 26, 28, 30.

That wouldn't be intensely backloaded and he'd be getting ~10% raises per year.  I think that is a reasonable progression in terms of dollars.

[Dtwncbad]

5 hours ago, Dochalo said:

no one is saying to pay him 10m in the first year and 40m in the last.  But punting 5+ mil down the road a bit helps meet current needs.  

money is worth less in the future.  

Often when you see a salary increase at the back end of a long term deal it is BECAUSE money is worth less in the future, where the agent has negotiated ADDING money (not moving it) to keep up with anticipated increases in average annual salaries.

My point is it becomes a little eye rolling every time there is a free agent possibility that so many people go straight to some fantasy that backloading is some magical way to just gitter dun. 

[Warfarin]

2 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Often when you see a salary increase at the back end of a long term deal it is BECAUSE money is worth less in the future, where the agent has negotiated ADDING money (not moving it) to keep up with anticipated increases in average annual salaries.

My point is it becomes a little eye rolling every time there is a free agent possibility that so many people go straight to some fantasy that backloading is some magical way to just gitter dun. 

A lot of deals have the player earning less money in year 1 than towards the end.

It could be as simple as year 1 he earns 20mil, then in year 2 it jumps up to 25 and increases from there.  With Pujols coming off the books after this year, that's a big deal, so they could just have him take a bit less in year 1, then have it jump quickly in year 2.

[totdprods]

6 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Can we ever discuss signing a free agent without people jamming the suggestion of a backloaded deal into the conversation?

1). Look, most free agent signing are “backloaded” by the length of the contract.

2). Backloaded does nothing to help manage the luxury tax because they go by AAV.

3). Arte doesn’t have a money problem.  He simply budgets.  Backloading doesn’t really help you stay on a budget when it simply creates inefficiency later.

Maybe Bauer gets a backloaded deal I guess.  But I would bet there is a 99% chance he simply gets a normal contract.

 

The luxury tax is hardly an issue...the year-to-year payroll is the number Arte has stated he is most concerned with, which is why backloading helps. 

And the Angels' signings reflect that...Rendon's deal is backloaded. Upton's was backloaded. Trout's first deal was backloaded. Pujols' deal was backloaded. So to was CJ Wilson's, Weaver's, and Hunter's. It's pretty apparent that this is a big part of how the Angels' structure their financial commitments. 
 

[Dtwncbad]

17 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Yeah, exactly.

So for example, if Bauer has a 6/150 deal, he could get:  20mil, then 22, 24, 26, 28, 30.

That wouldn't be intensely backloaded and he'd be getting ~10% raises per year.  I think that is a reasonable progression in terms of dollars.

Ok let’s play.  You mentioned 6/150.  If the market for Bauer is 6/150 your structure loses the deal to a team that just gives him 25m per year.  Great strategy.

The goal is to land the player.  I don’t think backloading is a way to land a player.  Once the big bones are agreed to (say it is 6/150) then if both sides are open to a custom structure like backloading then maybe they do it.  But then the dollars are not going to be the same because the player is giving up something, so the deal would end up (unless the agent is a finance idiot) more that 150m overall.

[Warfarin]

2 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Ok let’s play.  You mentioned 6/150.  If the market for Bauer is 6/150 your structure loses the deal to a team that just gives him 25m per year.  Great strategy.

The goal is to land the player.  I don’t think backloading is a way to land a player.  Once the big bones are agreed to (say it is 6/150) then if both sides are open to a custom structure like backloading then maybe they do it.  But then the dollars are not going to be the same because the player is giving up something, so the deal would end up (unless the agent is a finance idiot) more that 150m overall.

I get what you are saying, but I don't think you realize that it's rather common to have contracts with yearly increasing salaries.

Some examples from recent marquee free agent pitchers -

Zack Wheeler - https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/philadelphia-phillies/zack-wheeler-11933/.  

Patrick Corbin - https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/washington-nationals/patrick-corbin-11006/

Corbin's was very extreme, and I wouldn't expect see Bauer get that, but it's just an example of deals that have been struck for significant free agents.

Now, of course, not every contract is like that - Cole is getting 36mil yearly.  But in an offseason where many teams are crying poor due to the havoc COVID-19 wrecked on their financials, I would think a staggered deal might be more probable than not.

[Warfarin]

So to kick in my own "what would I do" -

1.  Sign Bauer for 6/150 - in deference to the above posts re: year 1 salary, let's just say 23mil for year 1, which is a bit below the 25mil AAV

2.  Trade Adell to LAD for C Ruiz, RHP Gray.  I got some pushback about why the Dodgers would trade Ruiz/Gonsolin, so I'll take a step back and put in Gray instead, who has a bit less of a ceiling than Gonsolin and projects as a very solid SP4 with some SP3 upside.  

• So - why would the Dodgers do this?  In Friedman's presser the other week, he said they are specifically looking for a RHH and relievers.  If you look at the Dodgers' 40 man roster, they are rather short in RHH.  Of note, they don't really have any significant outfield prospects, or at least ones who are within a few years of the majors, so why wouldn't they opt to acquire an elite talent in Adell?  They can keep Adell in the minors all year, let their player development team work with him on his plate discipline / pitch selection, and have him ready to be a force by 2022.  They have Pollock, but AJ Pollock is not someone that they would let block an elite talent.  Rather, Pollock likely becomes the 4th OF or is traded by 2022.  If Adell ends up what we think he can be, he would be the RHH power hitter in the middle of that lineup for years to come in LF, which is the one position they don't have much depth in currently.
• Why do we do this?  Ruiz can start immediately and platoon with Stassi, and Gray is likely a few months away from being a solid starter, if he isn't already.

3.  Sign Pederson to a 2/16 deal - 7mil year 1, 9 mil year 2.

4.  Trade 1B/3B Thaiss and SS/3B Jackson to the Braves for LHP Minter, LHP Davidson.  

• Why do the Braves do this?  The Braves are a pretty stacked team, but 3B is a bit of a hole for them right now and they don't really have any 3B in the pipeline to speak of.  Freeman is also a pending free agent next year, and it is unknown if they'll be able to re-sign him.  Thaiss can help cover 3B for now while providing 1B insurance, and Jackson is a very solid prospect who can possibly play SS, but is probably ticketed for 3B.
• Why do we do this?  We get a very good LHRP, which we need, and Davidson is similar to Gray in that he is in the SP4-ish territory with possible SP3 upside.  Losing Jackson hurts, but we have Rendon at 3B for years to come, and we have Paris/Vera as SS prospects, so Jackson isn't really needed.

5.  Sign Brandon Morrow to a non-guaranteed deal.  Also, shift Sandoval to the pen, too.

The above adds roughly 30mil to the payroll, and we have the following lineup/bench/rotation/pen:

Lineup:  2B Fletcher, 1B Walsh, CF Trout, 3B Rendon, RF Pederson, LF Upton, DH Ohtani, C Ruiz, SS Iglesias

Bench:  C Stassi, IF/OF Ward (will start vs LHP), IF/OF Rengifo (or Barreto, if he is healthy), 1B Pujols (will start ~3 times per week or so)

Rotation:  Bauer, Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Barria, Ohtani* to start.  By mid-season, Bauer, Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Gray, Ohtani*.  In 2022:  Bauer, Bundy (is re-signed), Canning, Gray, Davidson, Ohtani*, with Detmers and CRod in the wings

Pen:  Iglesias, Mayers, Pena, Buttrey, Minter, Sandoval, Reyes, Morrow* (or others, depending on health)

[Docwaukee]

8 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Often when you see a salary increase at the back end of a long term deal it is BECAUSE money is worth less in the future, where the agent has negotiated ADDING money (not moving it) to keep up with anticipated increases in average annual salaries.

My point is it becomes a little eye rolling every time there is a free agent possibility that so many people go straight to some fantasy that backloading is some magical way to just gitter dun. 

semantics. 

they agree on a total contract value over a certain number of years.  If the payout of that money were outside of the years played, then there are likely to be adjustments to the overall amount.  If they push a few mil to the end vs. the beginning then likely not.  

Do you really think an agent is going to ask about adding money because the team wants to pay 4 mil more in year 3 or 4 vs. year 2?  

backloading isn't a fantasy.  most contracts pay a player more in the future than in the first couple years.  

[Dtwncbad]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

semantics. 

they agree on a total contract value over a certain number of years.  If the payout of that money were outside of the years played, then there are likely to be adjustments to the overall amount.  If they push a few mil to the end vs. the beginning then likely not.  

Do you really think an agent is going to ask about adding money because the team wants to pay 4 mil more in year 3 or 4 vs. year 2?  

backloading isn't a fantasy.  most contracts pay a player more in the future than in the first couple years.  

Yes an agent will most certainly ask for more to compensate the player for waiting for the money.  Yes.

And I didn’t say it was a fantasy.  I am just pointing out how often people just love to throw in the word “backloaded” like it’s some magic trick to get the deal done and land the player at a price that makes the player affordable.

It’s not always just pushing money to the rear.  Often it’s a requirement from the player side trying to secure more money as the contract matures to keep up with what they think salary inflation may be.  Ego.

There are a thousand reasons why contracts end up like they do.

My point is the knee-jerk “solution” of “backloaded” (to me anyway) seems a little dumb when we don’t have even a slice of the information necessary to start suggesting a “solution” when we don’t know what each side is really posturing for.

That’s all.

[Angelsjunky]

If Bauer gets 6/$150M it will be due to a suppressed market. He's looking at the contracts of Cole (9/$324M) and Strasburg (7/$245M) and wondering why he should get significantly less. I think 6/$180M is more likely.

[Docwaukee]

10 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

If Bauer gets 6/$150M it will be due to a suppressed market. He's looking at the contracts of Cole (9/$324M) and Strasburg (7/$245M) and wondering why he should get significantly less. I think 6/$180M is more likely.

you are probably correct on this.  I've definitely come around on the idea that it's gonna take that 6th year.  

[Pancake Bear]

10 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

If Bauer gets 6/$150M it will be due to a suppressed market. He's looking at the contracts of Cole (9/$324M) and Strasburg (7/$245M) and wondering why he should get significantly less. I think 6/$180M is more likely.

I said this the other day. I think 25m is *possible* but probably low of where it'll end up. Obviously it'll depend on the market this year, but everyone still needs and will likely pay for SP. I doubt it'll take 7 years, but I think 6 at least is a given. Only way I see it being 5 is if some team is willing to pay significantly more aav to convince him. I'm dubious. 6/150 (25m aav) would be, IMO, the low end of the likely range. Depends on how desperate teams are, tbh. 

[Docwaukee]

10 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Yes an agent will most certainly ask for more to compensate the player for waiting for the money.  Yes.

And I didn’t say it was a fantasy.  I am just pointing out how often people just love to throw in the word “backloaded” like it’s some magic trick to get the deal done and land the player at a price that makes the player affordable.

It’s not always just pushing money to the rear.  Often it’s a requirement from the player side trying to secure more money as the contract matures to keep up with what they think salary inflation may be.  Ego.

There are a thousand reasons why contracts end up like they do.

My point is the knee-jerk “solution” of “backloaded” (to me anyway) seems a little dumb when we don’t have even a slice of the information necessary to start suggesting a “solution” when we don’t know what each side is really posturing for.

That’s all.

I think when people talk about 'back loaded', they are talking about something like what Rendon got.  It wasn't a magic trick.  His contract is back loaded or structured to pay him more later most likely to help the team afford more now because of current obligations.  Did his agent get the Angels to tack on a couple mil to accommodate that?  Maybe.  

Bauer's contract is likely going to be back loaded as well.  

I get what you are saying to some degree, but back loading is actually a solution and it's used all the time.  It does keep payroll more affordable in the short term 

And I seriously doubt it has anything to do with the players ego.  Any ego involved would only be related to the total amount.  Do you really think that Rendon agreed to 10m less than his AAV for 2020 because he wanted his AAV to be higher than Trout's in the future?  Or do you think he agreed to it for 2020 and 2021 so the Angels would have more spending space to make the team better and therefore have a better chance to win?  

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

1. Sign SP -  Tomoyuki Sugano - 4/55M - 10M, 12M, 15M, 18M

3. Sign RP - Tyler Clippard 1/3M

4. Sign C - Curt Casali - 2/3M - 1.5M, 1.5M

5. Sign OF - David Dahl - 2/4.5M - 2M, 2.5M

6. Sign OF - Eddie Rosario - 2/14M - 6M, 8M

6. Sign SP - Mike Foltynewicz - MLC/SPT invite

Total: $22.5M

Trades: 

Angels Trade: 1B/3B - Thaiss and OF - Deveaux  to the Braves: LHRP - Grant Dayton, LHRP - Tyler Matzek, RP - Luke Jackson - salary + 2.315M

Angels Trade: SP -Heaney, SP - Barria, OF - Adams  to the Rays: SP - Snell and LHRP - Alvarado  - salary + 5.525M

Trade Total:  7.84M

_________________________

Added - 30.34M

Rotation: Snell, Sugano, Bundy, Canning, Sandavol + Minors - Foltynewicz

Bullpen: CL- Iglesias, Clippard, Buttery, Mayers, Dayton, Matzek, Pena +  Minors - Jackson, Alvarado

Catchers: Stassi, Casali

IF: Walsh, AP#5, Fletcher, Rengifo, Iglesias, Rendon

OF: Upton, Trout, Rosario, Dahl

DH: Ohtani

Lineup:

1. Fletcher - 2B

2. Walsh - 1B

3. Trout - CF

4. Rendon - 3B

5. Ohtani - DH

6. Rosario - RF

7. Upton - LF

8. Stassi - C

9. Iglesias - SS

 

[Revad]

I think the next step would be to give up on Bauer and sign Odorizzi plus either Walker or Richards.

[eligrba]

Me thinks there is more........and it may not all be spent in the off-season.

I am starting to drink the kool-aid.  It's cherry flavored.