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What If


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This is a new series of articles from mlb.com that looks at a different outcomes if something happened differently.  This article covers the alternate possibilities if Pujols had re-signed with the Cardinals.

Most of the stuff mentioned are things we've discussed endlessly, but one of the things I found interesting is that they suggest we would not have signed Hamilton if we didn't have Pujols. How he comes up with this, I don't know.  Maybe I'm missing something.

 https://www.mlb.com/news/albert-pujols-stays-with-cardinals-scenarios

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It goes back further, with a chain of events impacting what came after. 

- Figgins, Lackey, and Vlad leave after 2009, ending Golden Era (2002-09). Of their replacements, on Matsui performs at a comparable level to the guy he replaced, and only the declined older version of Vlad. Wood and Kazmir are massive busts.

- Angels blow it with Beltre, and then Tony Reagins panic-trades for Wells in Jan 2011 after disappointing 2010 season.

- Jerry Dipoto signed as GM.

- Arte's big splash: Albert and Wilson.

- More disappointment, leading to another big splash: Josh Hamilton.

 

All of the above hamstrung the Angels via a bloated payroll. The obvious preventative solution was, after the poor 2010 season, to rebuild - not retool with aging former stars (Wells, Pujols, Wilson, Hamilton). 

The other big factor which was out of their control was the decimation of their starting rotation in 2014-16, with almost everyone going under the knife: Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Tropeano, Meyers, probably someone else I'm forgetting.

So it was a string of very poor decisions compounded by a string of unusually bad luck.

Eppler didn't make anything worse, but rather focused on doing what should have been done years before: rebuilding the farm system. He tried to make trades to improve the team, although he seemed to lack the ability to assess pitchers - with only the Bundy deal yielding very positive results.

Edited by Angelsjunky
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11 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

What If we miss the boat this year and just sign Dan Straily?

Then we won’t be in any worse shape than we already are.  When you miss on an Albert or a Hamilton it hits for years and years.  If you miss on Dan Straily, you shrug and move on.  It’s like missing on Teheran it sucks, and then it is over in a year.

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There could be potentially many what if

What if Morales did not get hurt? I truly think that he was coming into his own and at least an above-average to an all-start hitter. I still think we would have still signed Pujols, but we might not have signed Hamilton. 

What if  Dipoto did flop on the drafts?

What if Dipoto was able to build an at least an average fam system.

 

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1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

It goes back further, with a chain of events impacting what came after. 

- Figgins, Lackey, and Vlad leave after 2009, ending Golden Era (2002-09). Of their replacements, on Matsui performs at a comparable level to the guy he replaced, and only the declined older version of Vlad. Wood and Kazmir are massive busts.

- Angels blow it with Beltre, and then Tony Reagins panic-trades for Wells in Jan 2011 after disappointing 2010 season.

- Jerry Dipoto signed as GM.

- Arte's big splash: Albert and Wilson.

- More disappointment, leading to another big splash: Josh Hamilton.

 

All of the above hamstrung the Angels via a bloated payroll. The obvious preventative solution was, after the poor 2010 season, to rebuild - not retool with aging former stars (Wells, Pujols, Wilson, Hamilton). 

The other big factor which was out of their control was the decimation of their starting rotation in 2014-16, with almost everyone going under the knife: Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Tropeano, Meyers, probably someone else I'm forgetting.

So it was a string of very poor decisions compounded by a string of unusually bad luck.

Eppler didn't make anything worse, but rather focused on doing what should have been done years before: rebuilding the farm system. He tried to make trades to improve the team, although he seemed to lack the ability to assess pitchers - with only the Bundy deal yielding very positive results.

You missed the most important one. Morales breaking his leg.

Its very possible with Morales healthy, we wouldnt have targeted pujols. (Though I could have seen us still chasing carl crawford or jose reyes instead.... which would still have been ugly).

But a healthy morales, and signing beltre would have been sooooo much different...

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Too many unintended consequences to even contemplate regarding any alternative scenario. 

The most intriguing ever historically was the Joe DiMaggio - Ted Williams trade that was discussed but not made. Right handed DiMaggio in Fenway with the wall. Left handed Williams in the Bronx with the short right field porch. 

The only hypothetical way to even remotely test any 'what If' scenario is by computer simulation. Even then it would be very limited as the more variables enter the equation, the harder it is to form a viable equation. 

The Angels lineup was shaped expecting Pujols to fill a slot and put up a consistent range of numbers for multiple years. If he wasn't signed there would have been a number of alternative possibilities. Many already discussed in this thread. Each having a set of unintended consequences down the line. Possibly some better. Maybe some even worse. You never know what kind of trades may have been made by DiPoto.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

You missed the most important one. Morales breaking his leg.

Its very possible with Morales healthy, we wouldnt have targeted pujols. (Though I could have seen us still chasing carl crawford or jose reyes instead.... which would still have been ugly).

But a healthy morales, and signing beltre would have been sooooo much different...

Right, thanks for reminding me (I guess ;). I think Morales illustrates the perhaps most point, and failure of the Angels org: when faced with adversity or bad luck, they make bad decisions. 

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1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

Right, thanks for reminding me (I guess ;). I think Morales illustrates the perhaps most point, and failure of the Angels org: when faced with adversity or bad luck, they make bad decisions. 

That, and adenhart, were like the beginning of the end.

The crazy thing is we had a solid decade of doing almost everything right. Some bad ones, like finley, but lots of great moves like saunders that were better than expected.

Then we did a jekyll and hyde thing, and did so many wrong moves.

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3 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

It goes back further, with a chain of events impacting what came after. 

- Figgins, Lackey, and Vlad leave after 2009, ending Golden Era (2002-09). Of their replacements, on Matsui performs at a comparable level to the guy he replaced, and only the declined older version of Vlad. Wood and Kazmir are massive busts.

- Angels blow it with Beltre, and then Tony Reagins panic-trades for Wells in Jan 2011 after disappointing 2010 season.

- Jerry Dipoto signed as GM.

- Arte's big splash: Albert and Wilson.

- More disappointment, leading to another big splash: Josh Hamilton.

 

All of the above hamstrung the Angels via a bloated payroll. The obvious preventative solution was, after the poor 2010 season, to rebuild - not retool with aging former stars (Wells, Pujols, Wilson, Hamilton). 

The other big factor which was out of their control was the decimation of their starting rotation in 2014-16, with almost everyone going under the knife: Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Tropeano, Meyers, probably someone else I'm forgetting.

So it was a string of very poor decisions compounded by a string of unusually bad luck.

Eppler didn't make anything worse, but rather focused on doing what should have been done years before: rebuilding the farm system. He tried to make trades to improve the team, although he seemed to lack the ability to assess pitchers - with only the Bundy deal yielding very positive results.

I think there are some other notables in there. Francisco Rodriguez leaving after 2008 (coinciding with Scot Shields collapse), re-signing Bobby Abreu long term after getting his rebound season and Nick Adenharts death in 2009 are three. Those events, plus the ones you mentioned culminated in Kendrys Morales breaking his leg and then the trade for Dan Haren in 2010. 

A savvy GM would've seen 2009 as the last hurrah before a rebuild, an average one would've been convinced when Morales broke his leg. Our GM pushed his chips in hard and we continued to do that up until Eppler was hired.

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