Blake Snell is on the market

[Warfarin]

1 minute ago, Erstad Grit said:

A few teams 1 year 2 to 3 million. Cardinals or  Marlins. 

Pujols would be out of the game.  No one would sign a 42 year old first baseman.

[CanadianHalo]

3 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Yeah, and this is the argument to be made also in terms of signing Bauer at like 6/150 or trading for someone like Snell at 3/39.

The risk of trading for Snell is if he gets hurt and/or if Adell goes on to become a star.  If Snell gets hurt, then it isn't financially crippling to the team because he's only signed for 3 years at a low cost.  However, if that happens and Adell goes on to be a star, then we would have cashed in our best trade chip for someone who can't even help our team.

The risk of Bauer, of course, is if he regresses or gets hurt early on.  If he does, then that's years and years of a very high cost salary, anchoring down our financial flexibility, in the same way that Pujols has done.

Given the length of the contracts that we have to Trout and Rendon, as well as a somewhat mediocre farm system, I don't think we are particularly well positioned to absorb yet another big deal like Bauer.  I think our SP will likely have to come via trade, and I think we will look to sign a 2nd SP who only requires 1 or a max of a 2 year commitment.

Again, looking at successful teams, the Dodgers tend to trade for players with short-term or undervalued commitments.  With the exception of Betts, they haven't really  given out a big contract since Friedman took over.  Even Kershaw, when they extended him, was just given a 3 year / 94 million dollar deal - high AAV, but short duration.

Maybe I’ve watched too many Bauer vlogs over the last week and it’s starting to cloud my judgement but the guy works his ass off and loves baseball. 

I don’t think Bauer is the type to fall off a cliff. He cares too much. But, I’ve been wrong a billion times before so who knows

[Warfarin]

Just now, CanadianHalo said:

Maybe I’ve watched too many Bauer vlogs over the last week and it’s starting to cloud my judgement but the guy works his ass off and loves baseball. 

I don’t think Bauer is the type to fall off a cliff. He cares too much. But, I’ve been wrong a billion times before so who knows

It's not so much that he'll fall off a cliff due to a poor work ethic, but rather simply, because pitchers can get hurt and if he needs TJ surgery at some point during his contract, that's a huge blow to us, as we'd be carrying someone at 25mil/yr who is unable to pitch one year and on an innings limitation for at least one year thereafter.

[Erstad Grit]

37 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Pujols would be out of the game.  No one would sign a 42 year old first baseman.

I could see Cardinals having a goodbye tour. Financially he'd make money for them. Also a really young team like Marlins could use Pujols for 1-2 million.  Some depends on if NL has a DH. 

I'm just glad this 10 year embarrassment is almost done. 

 

[Hubs]

53 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

If Upton was a free agent I'd expect him to get a 1 year deal 3 to 5 million.  

Then you’re not living in reality. That’s what David Dahl got. Upton has had recent full season .900 OPS seasons, as well as the last 24 games Of last year where he hit .984.

He wouldn’t get 20 M plus per but he’d get 15-18. 

[Dtwncbad]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

I thought the "its not my money" argument was ended years ago. 

It is very simple: Big contracts for mediocre or bad players has a negative effect on the team's performance.

Over the last five years, the Angels have paid Albert Pujols $135 million for -1.9 WAR.

Over the last two years, they have paid Justin Upton $39M for -0.2 WAR.

(includes full year contracts for 2020 - should be adjust a few million lower, but doesn't affect the basic point)

Together they're owed $53 million in 2021, and Upton a further $28 million for 2022.

And on and on. Bad contracts make a team worse through limiting resources for improving the team.

 

Let me be more clear.  I don’t care if players make massive contracts.  Massive contracts pretty much always end up being inconvenient and limiting at the back end of the contract.

Thats just part of the deal.

I don’t spend any time being annoyed at it. I notice that lots of fans spend lots of time complaining about possible signings (too much money!), recent signings (won’t end well!), and old contracts (deal is killing us!).

I just accept that a team like the Angels is going to participate in some big money/big contract deals.

I am never going to be putting time into trying to figure out how to move an Upton contract or being annoyed at how that currently limits the team.

[Erstad Grit]

9 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Then you’re not living in reality. That’s what David Dahl got. Upton has had recent full season .900 OPS seasons, as well as the last 24 games Of last year where he hit .984.

He wouldn’t get 20 M plus per but he’d get 15-18. 

2019 Dahl > Upton

2020 both terrible

Ozuna will probably get 15-18 and he was great last year.

Upton is a liability in the outfield and hasn't looked good at the plate since 2018 outside a few weeks at the end of last year. I hope he bounces back because we need his bat desperately. 

No way in hell a team would sign him for 15-18 IMO. 

 

[totdprods]

I’d think Upton would land more on the $8.5-$1 range on a one-year rebound deal if he was a FA. 

[Hubs]

10 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

2019 Dahl > Upton

2020 both terrible

Ozuna will probably get 15-18 and he was great last year.

Upton is a liability in the outfield and hasn't looked good at the plate since 2018 outside a few weeks at the end of last year. I hope he bounces back because we need his bat desperately. 

No way in hell a team would sign him for 15-18 IMO. 

 

2006-2018 Upton >>>> Dahl

2020 Upton > Dahl