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Blake Snell is on the market


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Everybody would like to have Snell.  And everybody would like to keep Adell. I am not sure what people are thinking if they think Tampa would make a deal that doesn’t include Adell. If Adell

RIP @EnglishCop

I’m convinced part of why Tampa does so well with pitching is due to methods we can’t exactly replicate. Be it defense, bullpen, game management, workload, whatever analytics or systems they have in p

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1 hour ago, totdprods said:

It’s a great way to sort of quick test a proposal.

Last trade deadline, 2019, I tried to run trades through as they hit the wire and they were actually fairly accurate.

But I think when it comes to someone like Snell being shopped, it’s just not possible to quantify what someone is willing to pay for a talent like that. 

Where dealing with Tampa gives us an advantage is that, due to their low payroll and need to still be competitive, it does make guys like Rengifo, Thaiss, Barria, Sandoval, Buttrey, Stassi, even Middleton more valuable than say with the Cubs or Padres. They need players with upside, but they have a strong farm already and need young, cheap guys with some potential they can slot in to replace the fringe guys who get non-tendered like Choi or Renfroe or Wendle or Zunino. That doesn’t mean they’d get the deal done if included, but gives them a little value boost. 

I think it would take Adell/Marsh, a second tip top prospect (Adams, Canning, Detmers, Jackson), and then two lotto ticket/MLB-ready young guys. 

No. That's such a gross over pay you are talking Miggy Cabrera trade value from ten years ago. Snell is not a true top tier player, he is second tier and your package is for more of a league MVP. 

Canning isn't a prospect, he is a MLB starter. That would be the lead in the trade, then a second tier prospect. Nothing more, Tampa has to trade or put up with Snell not wanting to be there. That is the leverage point. 

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11 minutes ago, Blarg said:

No. That's such a gross over pay you are talking Miggy Cabrera trade value from ten years ago. Snell is not a true top tier player, he is second tier and your package is for more of a league MVP. 

Canning isn't a prospect, he is a MLB starter. That would be the lead in the trade, then a second tier prospect. Nothing more, Tampa has to trade or put up with Snell not wanting to be there. That is the leverage point. 

I wouldn't do that trade. Just saying it will take an overpay, and a gross one at that. This is a team that got Meadows, Glasnow, and Baz for Archer. Ironically, a better return than what Florida got for Cabrera too. 

Tampa is capable of raking in a haul for Snell if he's available and it's likely a team will pay it. Just like when the White Sox pulled in a consensus Top 10 Eloy Jimenez and a consensus Top 75 Dylan Cease, plus two more minor leaguers, for Jose Quintana. 

Snell is the only other SP who could be available who compares to Bauer. If the market had a few more top arms, I'd agree, the package would probably be less. But as it stands right now, the Rays could get a haul for him. A gross overpay.

I'd only be interested in the Angels going that route if they somehow found a way to sign Bauer, trade for Snell, and still have a few mil left over for minor additions for the pen, catcher, and maybe 2B. 

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On 11/27/2020 at 1:36 PM, tdawg87 said:

Detmers may also be on the table (I think he can be traded now since it's been a full year but I could be wrong).

That was the old Pete Incaviglia rule.  It's been changed to the new Trea Turner rule in 2015.  That being, teams can trade players from the last draft beginning on the day following the conclusion of the World Series.  So less than a full year now.

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8 hours ago, Lazorko Saves said:

That was the old Pete Incaviglia rule.  It's been changed to the new Trea Turner rule in 2015.  That being, teams can trade players from the last draft beginning on the day following the conclusion of the World Series.  So less than a full year now.

Incaviglia’s 48 hr and 143 rbi in a 75 game season n college is still flat out the greatest offensive season in college baseball history.  Stunning.

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On 11/28/2020 at 6:44 PM, Warfarin said:

Considering Cleveland put Hand on waivers because they didn't want to pay his 1mil buyout, I have to imagine virtually anyone who earns a remotely decent salary is possibly a trade option for them.

Carrasco is due $12 million for each of the next two seasons with a team option $14 million in 2023.   Might not take as much to acquire him as one would think.

He is 34 in March.   But, after the health scare in 2019, he put together good numbers in 2020.  Sub 3.00 ERA, 1.20 WHIP

He’s almost always had excellent Ks/BBs numbers.

Definately a rock solid #3, so the only thing missing would be a true ace.

Bundy, Carrasco, Heaney, Canning, and Barria/Ohtani 

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2 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Carrasco is due $12 million for each of the next two seasons with a team option $14 million in 2023.   Might not take as much to acquire him as one would think.

He is 34 in March.   But, after the health scare in 2019, he put together good numbers in 2020.  Sub 3.00 ERA, 1.20 WHIP

He’s almost always had excellent Ks/BBs numbers.

Definately a rock solid #3, so the only thing missing would be a true ace.

Bundy, Carrasco, Heaney, Canning, and Barria/Ohtani 

I do like Carrasco as a trade target.  If his acquisition cost is very low, then I'd for sure be on board with it.  Otherwise, we can probably sign someone like Quintana to fulfill the "mid-rotation starter" level of acquisition.

I'd do what we can to acquire one of Marquez, Snell, Gray, Darvish.  I feel Gray and Darvish should both cost a decent amount less than Marquez and Snell, but no matter what, there will be a decent acquisition cost.

Acquiring a pitcher with 3-4 years remaining is probably a "safer" bet than signing Bauer to a 6 year deal, but we'll see.

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I'd have a hard time committing 27m to Carrasco over the next two years.  If he were a free agent I'm not sure I'd be all that thrilled with giving him that sort of contract let along giving up anything in trade to take that on.  

I would put Snell closer to Gray and Darvish in terms of acquisition cost.  I think COL is gonna want the moon for Marquez.  

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22 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Article by Ken Rosenthal pointed out maybe the Angels moving Upton and top prospect for a Snell-like trade. Anyone have a guess what that would look like?

I'd imagine it'd be hard if it was one of Adell or Marsh. Doesn't make sense to give up 2 outfielders. 

Upton won’t be traded

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59 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Article by Ken Rosenthal pointed out maybe the Angels moving Upton and top prospect for a Snell-like trade. Anyone have a guess what that would look like?

I'd imagine it'd be hard if it was one of Adell or Marsh. Doesn't make sense to give up 2 outfielders. 

upton's got a no trade clause. so, you know, unlikely.

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There is exponential value associated with certain prospects vs. one we might see creep into a national publications top 100.  

and by certain prospects, I mean those considered elite yet maybe not by our standards or the ones associated with those aforementioned national publications.  Adell might not be in the top 50 for 20 other teams.  Or he might be #1 on all those teams lists.  Marsh might be more highly valued by many teams.  

Every team creates their own little micro-market with another team.  The indians took a reliever for Kluber and many thought they were kinda nuts.  We'll see how that works out.  

The reason I mention this is that each team knows an order of magnitude more about the Angels players than any of us.  And the Angels know an order of magnitude about their own players vs. what other teams know.  I try to remind myself of that even though I'm not very good at it.  

Like when I was bantering with @tdawg87 a few days ago about what it would cost to get Snell somewhere earlier in this thread I think.  

I don't know this for sure, but my guess is that Rosenthal and the like know a shade more than we do about what's feasible which means he doesn't know jack shit.  Coupled with his ulterior motive of wanting clicks and you get something just shy of a steaming turds worth of content.   

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6 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

Marquez would likely require Adell and Canning just to start the conversation. White Sox kinda f'ed the market with how much they paid for one season of Lynn.

Yeah.  Marquez comes with 4 years of control and he's only 25.  He'd cost, at the minimum, Adell + Canning, likely quite a bit more.

Each year of control is important, which is why someone like Snell, who "only" has 3 years remaining, has less value.  Same with Gray, etc.

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7 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Article by Ken Rosenthal pointed out maybe the Angels moving Upton and top prospect for a Snell-like trade. Anyone have a guess what that would look like?

I'd imagine it'd be hard if it was one of Adell or Marsh. Doesn't make sense to give up 2 outfielders. 

Someone pointed out to me that the article by Rosenthal wasn't meant to be serious, but rather, just suggestions of teams can do.  In that same article, he suggested the Dodgers trade for Story + Arenado, while trading away Seager.  I don't think that's based on any kind of rumor.

As for Upton - the idea is intriguing, and I'd 100% support it.  It won't happen, but consider the following for fun:

1.  Trade Upton + 30mil + 1-2 lower level prospects to whomever will take him (maybe the Giants, since they have payroll space and Zaidi tends to "buy prospects").  Save ~10mil/yr, with about a 6mil/yr luxury tax savings implication 

2.  Trade Adell, Barria, Thaiss for LHP Snell + LHRP Alvarado.  TB gets a potential star in Adell and someone to take Snell's place in the rotation.

3.  Sign one of Quintana, Odorizzi, or Archer to a 1/9 type deal - something that will give them a chance to rebound and re-enter the market

4.  Use the luxury tax / payroll savings to sign Joc Pederson (2/16?) and Kyle Schwarber (1/4)

5.  Sign a backup catcher (Suzuki? Castro?) to a 1/3 type deal

 

Payroll added:  Roughly 28-30 million, comfortably under the luxury tax level

Rotation:  Snell, Bundy, Heaney, Quintana/Odorizzi/Archer, Canning, Ohtani*

Lineup:  Fletcher 2B, Pederson RF, Trout CF, Ohtani DH, Rendon 3B, Walsh 1B, Schwarber LF, Stassi C, Iglesias SS

Bullpen:  Iglesias, Pena, Mayers, Buttrey, Reyes, Sandoval, Alvarado, Rivera

Bench:  1B Pujols, C Suzuki, IF/OF Ward, IF/OF Barreto

We would lose prospect capital in the process in Adell, Knowles, and whomever we have to ship to have another team absorb ~20mil of Upton's contract, but we'd still have most of our prospects, our lineup would have a lot of LH power, and our rotation becomes much deeper.  Adding Pederson + Schwarber also gives us two disciplined hitters, which is something I greatly prefer over Upton's free-swinging tendencies.

 

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