Blake Snell is on the market

[Erstad Grit]

38 minutes ago, mmc said:

Why do people think any of those 3 players have any real trade value?  They are nothing more than tweeners at this point, yes they have value to us as depth, but other teams have their own depth players.  Teams don't trade good players with upside for any collection of depth/bench players, they are nothing more than the third best piece in any trade for a guy like Musgrove  

A package seemingly centered on rengifo was enough to land stripling and pederson under the right situation.  That offer would be attractive to the pirates imo

[mmc]

1 minute ago, Erstad Grit said:

A package seemingly centered on rengifo was enough to land stripling and pederson under the right situation.  That offer would be attractive to the pirates imo

There were other prospects involved and while we never found out names, there's a decent chance one or more were better prospects than Rengifo.  It's also different helping a team clear salary vs buying good players from rebuilding teams who are looking for actual value.

[Stradling]

42 minutes ago, mmc said:

Why do people think any of those 3 players have any real trade value?  They are nothing more than tweeners at this point, yes they have value to us as depth, but other teams have their own depth players.  Teams don't trade good players with upside for any collection of depth/bench players, they are nothing more than the third best piece in any trade for a guy like Musgrove  

I agree with this except in the case of Rengifo.  He is a young player with considerable upside.  He could just as easily be a 3.5 win player as he could be a bust in my opinion.  

[Angels 1961]

3 hours ago, totdprods said:

MLB.com had this zany proposal this morning...just clickbaity stuff but still fun.

• Angels get: LHP Blake Snell
• Tigers get: OF Brandon Marsh (Angels’ No. 1 prospect per MLB Pipeline) and 2B Jahmai Jones (Angels’ No. 7 prospect)
• Rays get: RHP Spencer Turnbull, OF Victor Reyes, LHP Joey Wentz (Tigers’ No. 9 prospect), C Jake Rogers (Tigers’ No. 12 prospect) and OF/2B D’Shawn Knowles (Angels’ No. 8 prospect)

Essentially, the Tigers trade for Snell and then the Angels flip Marsh, Jones, and Knowles for him. Not sure why the Tigers don’t just keep Snell at that point. And that feels light for the Angels to give up.

Because Tigers are not ready to compete and they have plenty of young pitchers but need position players. Plus MLB.com it is a slow time so they throw out trades just like people on Angels Win

[Blarg]

5 hours ago, Angels 1961 said:

This is a salary dump for Rays. They are low budget team and do not want to spend 13 mill on one player. It also is smart move for Rays as they will get top prospects plus players already in majors. 

Have you looked at the Ray's payroll for 2021? They only have three guaranteed contracts totaling around $26 million. Snell is only a little over $11 million of that as the second highest paid player. 

The Ray's do not need to shed payroll. 

[Angels 1961]

9 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Have you looked at the Ray's payroll for 2021? They only have three guaranteed contracts totaling around $26 million. Snell is only a little over $11 million of that as the second highest paid player. 

The Ray's do not need to shed payroll. 

It is a dump for them, 2019 payroll was 52 mill and this year projected at 64 mill. The 64 mill includes Snell. Tampa is selling high on Snell to cut payroll and get a good return for him. Tampa's payroll will be below 50 mill this year more like 40 to 45 mill. They have many roster spots still to fill.

[Angels 1961]

8 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

It is a dump for them, 2019 payroll was 52 mill and this year projected at 64 mill. The 64 mill includes Snell. Tampa is selling high on Snell to cut payroll and get a good return for him. Tampa's payroll will be below 50 mill this year more like 40 to 45 mill. They have many roster spots still to fill.

With a payroll below 50 mill will win more games than 80% of teams in MLB and including halos.

[tdawg87]

4 hours ago, totdprods said:

MLB.com had this zany proposal this morning...just clickbaity stuff but still fun.

• Angels get: LHP Blake Snell
• Tigers get: OF Brandon Marsh (Angels’ No. 1 prospect per MLB Pipeline) and 2B Jahmai Jones (Angels’ No. 7 prospect)
• Rays get: RHP Spencer Turnbull, OF Victor Reyes, LHP Joey Wentz (Tigers’ No. 9 prospect), C Jake Rogers (Tigers’ No. 12 prospect) and OF/2B D’Shawn Knowles (Angels’ No. 8 prospect)

Essentially, the Tigers trade for Snell and then the Angels flip Marsh, Jones, and Knowles for him. Not sure why the Tigers don’t just keep Snell at that point. And that feels light for the Angels to give up.

Interesting, but more of a thought experiment I suppose.

Not an unfair package for Snell. But I still think they're gonna go after the guys we don't want to give up. And you know if Tampa wants them, then they are probably winning that trade. 

I suggested Marsh, Rodriguez and Kochanowicz. I think that may get it done if we also throw in Sandoval or Barria. That's a trade I don't make, personally. But again, I don't know anything about anything and the market hasn't even begun to take shape so who knows? 

[tdawg87]

Detmers may also be on the table (I think he can be traded now since it's been a full year but I could be wrong).

[Docwaukee]

4 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Detmers may also be on the table (I think he can be traded now since it's been a full year but I could be wrong).

I wanna say that the year thing doesn't matter anymore.  

plus your trade suggestion sucks.  I know you're trying to go opposite of what we normally do, but I don't think it would take anything close to that.  

[tdawg87]

36 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I wanna say that the year thing doesn't matter anymore.  

plus your trade suggestion sucks.  I know you're trying to go opposite of what we normally do, but I don't think it would take anything close to that.  

I don't think it sucks at all. Tampa would be getting just one top 100 guy in Marsh. At this point Chris Rodriguez and Kochanowicz are unproven. 

Remember how trades go down here: It gets announced, one guy is heading the other way but there are "more pieces involved" and we're like well that kind of stinks but hopefully the other pieces aren't anything huge. Then the rest comes out and we collectively lose our shit. The Simmons trade is a perfect example of this.

If my trade proposal "sucks" then it's probably closer to reality than the other proposals.

Please post what you think would be a fair package for Snell, since mine is obviously so bad.

[tdawg87]

Ok that post came off as douchy. Sorry about that @Dochalo.

You're right that I'm trying to do the opposite of the normal trade scenarios posted here but IMO mine is closer to reality than not. But I don't know. I guess we'll see.

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

I don't think it sucks at all. Tampa would be getting just one top 100 guy in Marsh. At this point Chris Rodriguez and Kochanowicz are unproven. 

Remember how trades go down here: It gets announced, one guy is heading the other way but there are "more pieces involved" and we're like well that kind of stinks but hopefully the other pieces aren't anything huge. Then the rest comes out and we collectively lose our shit. The Simmons trade is a perfect example of this.

If my trade proposal "sucks" then it's probably closer to reality than the other proposals.

Please post what you think would be a fair package for Snell, since mine is obviously so bad.

I was telling you it sucks like I'd say it to a friend standing next me.  Don't confuse my brotherly love for me trying to be an asshole.  

top 100's are worthless right now.  Last year's list minus mlb grads plus a few drafted and intl players.  

The big thing though is that there's no way we're giving up 3 of our best young pitchers in that deal.  I think you are significantly undervaluing Sandoval or Barria as throw ins. 

Chris Snell isn't Chris Sale.  He's very good but has several red flags on him.  

I realistically think it would take one of Adell or Marsh, one of Detmers or Rodriguez, and a couple other guys from the 11-30 range.  Like Yan and someone like Jose Bonilla.  

I agree that any proposal that doesn't included one of our top position prospects and one of our top pitching prospects won't even get them to listen.  I'm probably still passing on the one that I mentioned to be honest.  

[Blarg]

14 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

top 100's are worthless right now. 

They were sketchy before with an entire season of stats but a year lost to Covid validates your statement. 

[totdprods]

Be kind of nuts if it was something happened like the Angels did pull off signing Bauer, maybe with some ‘21 salary deferred, and then moved Adell, Canning, Jackson, and I dunno, Knowles, Adams, or Deveaux for Snell. A lot of talent, but from where we’re deep...OF and SS. Losing Canning isn’t nearly as painful with both Bauer and Snell joining the team. 

Bauer, Snell, Bundy, Heaney, Barria, Ohtani is a pretty insane rotation. 

Doesn’t leave much money left to address RP, 2B, or C...but theoretically they could just go in-house or super cheap and hope the rotation and offense as it stands is enough. 

Edited November 28, 2020 by totdprods

[AngelStew43]

If we were to trade Adell in any deal, Snell is one guy I'd be looking for in return.  I may add a couple more pieces, like Aquino and Rengifo, since they would be getting 6 more seasons of club control.  

 

I would also ask for someone else in return, like Shane McClanahan, if I am giving up Adell

[Angelsjunky]

Not sure if anyone has mentioned this, but according to Trade Simulator, Snell and Adell are of very similar value. Here are some packages that would be roughly equal in value to Snell (according to TS), +/- 10% value.

Adell

Fletcher and Walsh

Marsh, Sandoval, and Suarez

Adams, Sandoval, Jackson, Suarez, Yan, and Thaiss

[totdprods]

26 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Not sure if anyone has mentioned this, but according to Trade Simulator, Snell and Adell are of very similar value. Here are some packages that would be roughly equal in value to Snell (according to TS), +/- 10% value.

Adell

Fletcher and Walsh

Marsh, Sandoval, and Suarez

Adams, Sandoval, Jackson, Suarez, Yan, and Thaiss

Unfortunately, that’s where I think the trade simulator starts to lose its accuracy. 

While Adell and Snell might have some sort of equatable value at the end of a formula, it fails to acknowledge that a team will always overpay for the guy they want. 

The Mariners for instance could offer one of their top 3 OF prospects, one of their top SP prospects, and a couple lotto tickets likely without blinking an eye. 

Wish I could go back and plug in deals like the Sale trade in that simulator and see what the values were then. I’m sure they weren’t close. 

That’s not to say we couldn’t pull off a trade for Snell still...just think it means Adell plus at least one other name we’d cringe to hear, then another couple lotto tickets. 

If the Angels could sign the right FA SP to pair with Snell, and fill out the remaining bullpen/offense needs cheaply ($5m guys or less) then I think it could be worth an overpay.

[T.G.]

14 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Chris Snell isn't Chris Sale.  He's very good but has several red flags on him.  

And he's not Blake Sale either.

But he might be Bake Sale.

[gotbeer]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Not sure if anyone has mentioned this, but according to Trade Simulator, Snell and Adell are of very similar value. Here are some packages that would be roughly equal in value to Snell (according to TS), +/- 10% value.

Adell

Fletcher and Walsh

Marsh, Sandoval, and Suarez

Adams, Sandoval, Jackson, Suarez, Yan, and Thaiss

Intertesting toy.  Button says it would be accepted.  

Adell 54.8 

Lindor 36.2, McKenzie 21.1 = 57.3

*Edit, not the singer dork.  

**  Edit  Shit, now I'm confused, it is with 2 L's.

Edited November 28, 2020 by gotbeer

[gotbeer]

Also, I know someone else suggested it.  But Adell 54.8 Plesac 53.1

Edited November 28, 2020 by gotbeer

[gotbeer]

Also, FYI.  Marsh is only valued at 36.2.  So substituting Marsh for Adell straight up is probably a no go.

Edited November 28, 2020 by gotbeer

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Unfortunately, that’s where I think the trade simulator starts to lose its accuracy. 

While Adell and Snell might have some sort of equatable value at the end of a formula, it fails to acknowledge that a team will always overpay for the guy they want. 

The Mariners for instance could offer one of their top 3 OF prospects, one of their top SP prospects, and a couple lotto tickets likely without blinking an eye. 

Wish I could go back and plug in deals like the Sale trade in that simulator and see what the values were then. I’m sure they weren’t close. 

That’s not to say we couldn’t pull off a trade for Snell still...just think it means Adell plus at least one other name we’d cringe to hear, then another couple lotto tickets. 

If the Angels could sign the right FA SP to pair with Snell, and fill out the remaining bullpen/offense needs cheaply ($5m guys or less) then I think it could be worth an overpay.

Yes, well put. But it is a place to start, or at least bump up against, and then adjust according to demand, how much a team wants the player, and intangible factors (like memories of Snell's great game 6 start).

But I agree that the Rays would ask for more than just Adell, but not necessarily more than a couple solid second tier prospects, like Jackson and Yan.

[Angelsjunky]

10 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

Also, FYI.  Marsh is only valued at 36.2.  So substituting Marsh for Adell straight up is probably a no go.

Which is exactly why I might be more inclined to trade Adell than Marsh. In my mind, Adell has a higher bust potential and only a slightly higher ceiling, and thus Marsh is arguably a more valuable prospect. 

But again, I wouldn't trade either as I think they are both excellent prospects and not yet at their peak in terms of trade value. Both should put up gaudy numbers in a half season in the Pacific Coast League.

[totdprods]

38 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, well put. But it is a place to start, or at least bump up against, and then adjust according to demand, how much a team wants the player, and intangible factors (like memories of Snell's great game 6 start).

But I agree that the Rays would ask for more than just Adell, but not necessarily more than a couple solid second tier prospects, like Jackson and Yan.

It’s a great way to sort of quick test a proposal.

Last trade deadline, 2019, I tried to run trades through as they hit the wire and they were actually fairly accurate.

But I think when it comes to someone like Snell being shopped, it’s just not possible to quantify what someone is willing to pay for a talent like that. 

Where dealing with Tampa gives us an advantage is that, due to their low payroll and need to still be competitive, it does make guys like Rengifo, Thaiss, Barria, Sandoval, Buttrey, Stassi, even Middleton more valuable than say with the Cubs or Padres. They need players with upside, but they have a strong farm already and need young, cheap guys with some potential they can slot in to replace the fringe guys who get non-tendered like Choi or Renfroe or Wendle or Zunino. That doesn’t mean they’d get the deal done if included, but gives them a little value boost. 

I think it would take Adell/Marsh, a second tip top prospect (Adams, Canning, Detmers, Jackson), and then two lotto ticket/MLB-ready young guys.