The AL West is wide open

[Docwaukee]

For the first time in a few year I feel like the division is wide open for the taking.  

There isn't a team that clearly sits on top of the others.  The A's and Astros could certainly make some moves and be better than they are right now but the Angels are in a similar boat.  Those three teams are all at a similar starting point in my estimation and this off season will determine the winner.  

The Angels might be the only team of those three to actually spend a little to improve.  But they all have issues to deal with.  

Whoever finds their way to 93-95 wins will take it.  But to get there some good things would have to happen for any one of them.  

A's - rotation is very young outside of Bassit who has to be smoke and mirrors (right?).  I could see them trying to improve at 2b or SS but we know they won't be bringing Semian back.  Luzardo has to be a beast which he's capable of but it might be too early.  The pen has thinned out considerably with no Hendricks

Astros - I know we all hate them but they're still a very solid team.  Lineup if very good still if Alvarez gets healthy.  Unless of course they continue to feel the impact of not being able to cheat.  I think they'll definitely add to their OF.  The big question is their rotation.  Can Valdez do what he did over a whole season?  Is Greinke too old?  Will McCullers stay healthy?  After that it's pretty thin so they'll likely add a rotation arm.  Pen is meh.  

Angels - Lineup is good but needs someone solid at 2b or SS and possibly RF.  Rotation has some arms but none are likely high impact and needs depth.  Pen needs some help.  

The difference makers will be who gets that arm for about 4-10 mil that does better than expected.  A's an Angels are both likely in need of a MIFer.  Who come out on top there.  Astros probably get a good deal on an OF.  Who can add those couple of guys to what are now all mediocre pens.  

This division is going to be won or lost by the moves made this off season for any of those three teams.  Something that hasn't happened in awhile.  Going into the last three or even four off seasons, the Angels were clearly behind other teams with a lot of ground to make up.  It's the best opportunity they'll have in awhile to take control of the division.  Maybe even for 2-3 years.    

[totdprods]

Oakland is starting to get close to that point where they start to turnover their roster too. Wouldn’t surprise me if someone like Olson, Manaea, or Laureano was dealt in the next 12-18 months. 

Seattle could surprise folks sooner rather than later...on paper now they aren’t ready but Dipoto flips the roster so much that all it takes is the right stroke of luck (2014 Angels?) for them to be really good. 

[Revad]

23 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Oakland is starting to get close to that point where they start to turnover their roster too. Wouldn’t surprise me if someone like Olson, Manaea, or Laureano was dealt in the next 12-18 months. 

Seattle could surprise folks sooner rather than later...on paper now they aren’t ready but Dipoto flips the roster so much that all it takes is the right stroke of luck (2014 Angels?) for them to be really good. 

But there’s a chance- and a lot of ground could be made up this year if Arte is willing to risk it.

[Inside Pitch]

18 hours ago, Dochalo said:

For the first time in a few year I feel like the division is wide open for the taking.  

There isn't a team that clearly sits on top of the others.  The A's and Astros could certainly make some moves and be better than they are right now but the Angels are in a similar boat.  Those three teams are all at a similar starting point in my estimation and this off season will determine the winner.  

The Angels might be the only team of those three to actually spend a little to improve.  But they all have issues to deal with.  

Whoever finds their way to 93-95 wins will take it.  But to get there some good things would have to happen for any one of them.  

A's - rotation is very young outside of Bassit who has to be smoke and mirrors (right?).  I could see them trying to improve at 2b or SS but we know they won't be bringing Semian back.  Luzardo has to be a beast which he's capable of but it might be too early.  The pen has thinned out considerably with no Hendricks

Astros - I know we all hate them but they're still a very solid team.  Lineup if very good still if Alvarez gets healthy.  Unless of course they continue to feel the impact of not being able to cheat.  I think they'll definitely add to their OF.  The big question is their rotation.  Can Valdez do what he did over a whole season?  Is Greinke too old?  Will McCullers stay healthy?  After that it's pretty thin so they'll likely add a rotation arm.  Pen is meh.  

Angels - Lineup is good but needs someone solid at 2b or SS and possibly RF.  Rotation has some arms but none are likely high impact and needs depth.  Pen needs some help.  

The difference makers will be who gets that arm for about 4-10 mil that does better than expected.  A's an Angels are both likely in need of a MIFer.  Who come out on top there.  Astros probably get a good deal on an OF.  Who can add those couple of guys to what are now all mediocre pens.  

This division is going to be won or lost by the moves made this off season for any of those three teams.  Something that hasn't happened in awhile.  Going into the last three or even four off seasons, the Angels were clearly behind other teams with a lot of ground to make up.  It's the best opportunity they'll have in awhile to take control of the division.  Maybe even for 2-3 years.    

Great post as always.

Man.... I was looking at the Rangers and it's a trip they are where they are.  Their entire roster of offensive players not named Gallo project to combine for a 0.2 fWAR.  

Rangers

---

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Joey Gallo	651	.210	.329	.477	.336	0.3	2.4	4.6	2.2
Nick Solak	560	.263	.333	.421	.322	-6.4	0.6	-2.6	0.7
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	609	.258	.318	.368	.296	-20.6	-0.3	1.9	0.5
Elvis Andrus	539	.256	.306	.388	.296	-18.3	1.0	-3.9	0.3
Willie Calhoun	560	.257	.319	.451	.323	-5.9	-0.3	-1.4	0.3
Leody Taveras	567	.244	.310	.376	.295	-20.0	1.0	-1.5	0.2
Anderson Tejeda	210	.237	.289	.400	.292	-8.0	0.2	-0.1	0.1
Samuel Huff	232	.239	.288	.427	.299	-7.3	0.2	-4.1	0.1
Rougned Odor	525	.214	.283	.424	.297	-17.6	1.2	-3.6	0.0
Jose Trevino	499	.241	.281	.368	.277	-25.5	-0.8	1.8	0.0
Sherten Apostel	49	.219	.285	.369	.280	-2.3	0.0	-0.3	-0.1
Ronald Guzman	483	.232	.312	.408	.307	-12.1	-0.3	2.6	-0.1
Scott Heineman	140	.241	.305	.373	.292	-5.3	0.0	-0.1	-0.2
Adolis Garcia	63	.212	.254	.382	.268	-3.7	0.0	-0.2	-0.2
Eli White	168	.226	.292	.339	.275	-8.9	0.1	-0.3	-0.4
Danny Santana	385	.226	.280	.403	.287	-16.1	0.8	0.1	-1.0
Total	6240	.240	.306	.406	.303	-177.8	5.9	-7.1	2.4

That's early 90s Angels level offense ...   

[tdawg87]

We still doing the extended playoffs thing? Either way, this team has been circling the drain for 5 straight years. The AL West is no longer controlled by Houston so it's up for grabs.

It's fucking time. I don't even care about the "getting Trout to the playoffs" narrative anymore. Just get to the playoffs. I'm so tired of losing. 

I will give Minasian a fair chance and I hope he can pull off some magic this offseason. I think we're gonna need it. 

Though some financial room would be pretty nice. Arte pls.

[Docwaukee]

3 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Great post as always.

Man.... I was looking at the Rangers and it's a trip they are where they are.  Their entire roster of offensive players not named Gallo project to combine for a 0.2 fWAR.  

Rangers

---

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Joey Gallo	651	.210	.329	.477	.336	0.3	2.4	4.6	2.2
Nick Solak	560	.263	.333	.421	.322	-6.4	0.6	-2.6	0.7
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	609	.258	.318	.368	.296	-20.6	-0.3	1.9	0.5
Elvis Andrus	539	.256	.306	.388	.296	-18.3	1.0	-3.9	0.3
Willie Calhoun	560	.257	.319	.451	.323	-5.9	-0.3	-1.4	0.3
Leody Taveras	567	.244	.310	.376	.295	-20.0	1.0	-1.5	0.2
Anderson Tejeda	210	.237	.289	.400	.292	-8.0	0.2	-0.1	0.1
Samuel Huff	232	.239	.288	.427	.299	-7.3	0.2	-4.1	0.1
Rougned Odor	525	.214	.283	.424	.297	-17.6	1.2	-3.6	0.0
Jose Trevino	499	.241	.281	.368	.277	-25.5	-0.8	1.8	0.0
Sherten Apostel	49	.219	.285	.369	.280	-2.3	0.0	-0.3	-0.1
Ronald Guzman	483	.232	.312	.408	.307	-12.1	-0.3	2.6	-0.1
Scott Heineman	140	.241	.305	.373	.292	-5.3	0.0	-0.1	-0.2
Adolis Garcia	63	.212	.254	.382	.268	-3.7	0.0	-0.2	-0.2
Eli White	168	.226	.292	.339	.275	-8.9	0.1	-0.3	-0.4
Danny Santana	385	.226	.280	.403	.287	-16.1	0.8	0.1	-1.0
Total	6240	.240	.306	.406	.303	-177.8	5.9	-7.1	2.4

That's early 90s Angels level offense ...   

Ha!  They need the G-man to help them out.  

If they trade Lance Lynn (which they should) then their starting staff will be pretty bad as well.  It's not a good time to try and get value for guys like Andrus or Odor as in this market they'd would just be salary dump so I expect those guys to stay where they would hope to recoup something from them next year when they both only have 1yr left.  

[Taylor]

I've come to dislike every other team in the AL West for different reasons. I wonder if any of their fans see the Angels as potentially dangerous, or if they've written us off. Either way, it'd be fun to be in the playoff hunt again. Heck, I'd take an April where they don't completely suck out of the gate.

[Docwaukee]

The other thing perhaps worth mentioning is that the Mariners could go berserk and take on some serious payroll.  They're in a position to take serious advantage of what could be a depressed market.  

It wouldn't surprise me if they took on Arenado and went hard after Bauer.  

[Taylor]

How/why do the Mariners have extra money to spend?

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, Taylor said:

I've come to dislike every other team in the AL West for different reasons. I wonder if any of their fans see the Angels as potentially dangerous, or if they've written us off. Either way, it'd be fun to be in the playoff hunt again. Heck, I'd take an April where they don't completely suck out of the gate.

I don't think there's any team that's truly dangerous in the AL West right now and everyone knows it.  There just isn't an elite team.  At least that's the case going into the off season.  That could certainly change but we'll see.  

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, Taylor said:

How/why do the Mariners have extra money to spend?

I wouldn't call it extra.  They have a payroll of about 55 mil and some solid young players.  In my opinion, they are a couple years away at best but you never know if Jerry does what Jerry does and starts making a shit ton of moves.  I'm not saying that could make them a contender, but Jerry might think so.  

[Bronson]

1 hour ago, Taylor said:

I've come to dislike every other team in the AL West for different reasons. I wonder if any of their fans see the Angels as potentially dangerous, or if they've written us off. Either way, it'd be fun to be in the playoff hunt again. Heck, I'd take an April where they don't completely suck out of the gate.

I like to poke  around other team forums. Funny enough, I’ve seen that it’s mainly the Astros forum that writes us off and pokes fun at our team. The other 3 seem a lot more cautious of us. Especially the A’s fans. Mariners fans seem pretty respectful of us also. 
 

So yeah, in short Astros fans are pricks... but did you expect anything less? 

[Docwaukee]

35 minutes ago, Bronson said:

I like to poke  around other team forums. Funny enough, I’ve seen that it’s mainly the Astros forum that writes us off and pokes fun at our team. The other 3 seem a lot more cautious of us. Especially the A’s fans. Mariners fans seem pretty respectful of us also. 
 

So yeah, in short Astros fans are pricks... but did you expect anything less? 

In years past, I can see why they would (write us off).  101, 103, and 107 win seasons will do that to a fan base.  They've still got some pieces for 2020 but I think losing Springer is going to hurt them big time.  After this year it's mass exodus.  Greinke, Verlander and McCullers gone.  Correa gone.  A few others.  

A remaining core of Bregman, Alvarez, Kyle Tucker is still pretty damn good.  It would be great (for the halos) and probably bad for baseball if Altuve doesn't recover but I hope he doesn't.  

Valdez, maybe Urquidy and Whitley could end up being a pretty good rotation.  

But they're gonna have a lot of holes to fill in order to stay truly competitive and their farm system is pretty bad.  

It's time for the halos to take the reigns on this division.  2021 and the two years to follow are going to be the best chance they have to do so.  Better than any opportunity they've had over the last 10 years.  

Frankly, they had a chance to start that in 2020.  The division was very winnable.  At the time they were putting the team together, COVID wasn't a thing and even though the A's had a good record, they were over their heads from a metrics standpoint.  

I am beginning to think that's what Arte (and other people in the org) saw and why Billy got fired.  A significant missed opportunity.  

but as many have mentioned and @Inside Pitch mentioned in Dear Arte...

this is truly it.   Mike Trout is 29.  Rendon is 31.  It has to start now.  

A couple months ago I thought they might wait another year for the young guys to develop, but they can't.  No more gaps at multiple positions.  No more holes in the rotation.  No more piecemealing things or 'ham and egging'.  

There's gonna be opportunities without trading the farm but it will require committing to spend out of what I perceive as Arte's comfort zone for the next 3 years.  If he doesn't, then it's his own fault.  

[Inside Pitch]

5 hours ago, Dochalo said:

In years past, I can see why they would (write us off).  101, 103, and 107 win seasons will do that to a fan base.  They've still got some pieces for 2020 but I think losing Springer is going to hurt them big time.  After this year it's mass exodus.  Greinke, Verlander and McCullers gone.  Correa gone.  A few others.  

A remaining core of Bregman, Alvarez, Kyle Tucker is still pretty damn good.  It would be great (for the halos) and probably bad for baseball if Altuve doesn't recover but I hope he doesn't.  

Valdez, maybe Urquidy and Whitley could end up being a pretty good rotation.  

But they're gonna have a lot of holes to fill in order to stay truly competitive and their farm system is pretty bad.  

It's time for the halos to take the reigns on this division.  2021 and the two years to follow are going to be the best chance they have to do so.  Better than any opportunity they've had over the last 10 years.  

Frankly, they had a chance to start that in 2020.  The division was very winnable.  At the time they were putting the team together, COVID wasn't a thing and even though the A's had a good record, they were over their heads from a metrics standpoint.  

I am beginning to think that's what Arte (and other people in the org) saw and why Billy got fired.  A significant missed opportunity.  

but as many have mentioned and @Inside Pitch mentioned in Dear Arte...

this is truly it.   Mike Trout is 29.  Rendon is 31.  It has to start now.  

A couple months ago I thought they might wait another year for the young guys to develop, but they can't.  No more gaps at multiple positions.  No more holes in the rotation.  No more piecemealing things or 'ham and egging'.  

There's gonna be opportunities without trading the farm but it will require committing to spend out of what I perceive as Arte's comfort zone for the next 3 years.  If he doesn't, then it's his own fault.  

Again spot on.

The sticking point this off-season is the same one we had last year, nobody will have a greater impact than Arte.  He ultimately decides how much gets done.

Can he see the forest for the trees?

[Inside Pitch]

7 hours ago, Taylor said:

How/why do the Mariners have extra money to spend?

They sold off everyone that cost money save for Seager.

[Taylor]

8 hours ago, Bronson said:

So yeah, in short Astros fans are pricks... but did you expect anything less? 

Nope.

[Docwaukee]

11 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I wouldn't call it extra.  They have a payroll of about 55 mil and some solid young players.  In my opinion, they are a couple years away at best but you never know if Jerry does what Jerry does and starts making a shit ton of moves.  I'm not saying that could make them a contender, but Jerry might think so.  

I was just going through their roster and it's really not very impressive right now.  Lewis could get better but he's also a guy who gets figured out and ends up being super streaky at best.  I didn't realize Evan White and Shed Long were that bad this year.  Small sample but hmm.  Crawford is a good defender.  Could see Kelenic next year.  Rodriguez is a stud and could also be in the majors within a year.  

Dunn, Sheffield, and Marco Gonzales are solid as a core for their rotation.   Gilbert in the wings.  Hancock could move pretty quick.  As could Kirby.  So they could have a pretty good rotation within about 2-3 years.  They've got a bunch of arms in their top 10-15 that could also end up as rotation pieces or in their pen.  

They don't have any IF prospects who are going to help any time soon.  So going and getting a guy like Arenado might actually make some sense for them.  Or they could actually make a play for Realmuto even though they have Cal Raleigh in the minors as a decent C prospect.  

[Inside Pitch]

On 11/21/2020 at 1:40 PM, Dochalo said:

I was just going through their roster and it's really not very impressive right now.  Lewis could get better but he's also a guy who gets figured out and ends up being super streaky at best.  I didn't realize Evan White and Shed Long were that bad this year.  Small sample but hmm.  Crawford is a good defender.  Could see Kelenic next year.  Rodriguez is a stud and could also be in the majors within a year.  

Dunn, Sheffield, and Marco Gonzales are solid as a core for their rotation.   Gilbert in the wings.  Hancock could move pretty quick.  As could Kirby.  So they could have a pretty good rotation within about 2-3 years.  They've got a bunch of arms in their top 10-15 that could also end up as rotation pieces or in their pen.  

They don't have any IF prospects who are going to help any time soon.  So going and getting a guy like Arenado might actually make some sense for them.  Or they could actually make a play for Realmuto even though they have Cal Raleigh in the minors as a decent C prospect.  

Their strength is going to be all the SP arms they have been collecting.  Kirby, Gilbert, Brash.

Rodriguez/Kelenic need to live up to their potential otherwise they have to go outside of the org to add bats.   I like Lewis because he's overcome things to get where he is but some of the hype around him may be a little premature, he's got regression written all over him.  After that scorching hot start he put up a .154/.264/.308 - .572 the second half (final 30 games).  Kelenic/Rodriguez/Lewis will be fun for M's fans to watch should Lewis rebound and Kelenic learn how to hit anything that bends.

Also, Ty France was an awfully good get for them.  Dude can play multiple positions so if Long continues to scuffle they have a replacement ready, if he turns it around they have a pretty versatile player.