Angels Off-season Prediction Thread

[Warfarin]

5 minutes ago, Second Base said:

- Darvish checks all the boxes, but I'm not convinced the Cubs move him, nor am I convinced the Angels could for him in the payroll.

- I think guys like Suarez and Sandoval will go the Sean Newcomb route, transitioning to relief and finding some success there. 

- Yes in every bullpen name you listed.

- Yes on Suzuki.

Yeah - one byproduct of trading/finding SP is we can in turn strengthen our pen by having Sandoval serve as a multi-inning LHRP.  He looked great in that role, and given that our pen doesn't currently have a bonafide lefty reliever, I think he could be a real weapon for us in that role.

[Dtwncbad]

5 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Based on Gausman and Stroman narrowing the market by accepting the QO, Smyly getting 11 million, and Ray getting 8 million....

PITCHING IS GOING TO BE EXPENSIVE. 

Again. 

Like it is every year. Eppler never wanted to pay a premium for it. That's why you have to draft, sign and develop a lot of it, and the quality must be high. Not just quantity like Dipoto and Eppler.

Eppler never wanted to pay a premium for pitching?  Yeah, that 8 year/$300m offer to Cole was embarrassingly cheap.

 

[totdprods]

28 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I like Darvish, scratch that, I LOVE Darvish, but contractual constraints make it unlikely in my mind.

I wonder if there’s a chance the Cubs pay a few mil of his 2021 salary in return for a prospect. Perhaps the deal I proposed above plus international slots or they chuck in one of our SS or other OF prospects or Yan.

I think there are just too many connections for it not to have a real shot. And I think the Cubs would move that contract just to avoid any chance of it going south. They’re about to go into a retooling of sorts. Now would be the time to sell him.

[Angelsjunky]

3 hours ago, wopphil said:

I am not nearly as excited about Wong as many of you. I just don’t see the upside. Nor the need. It would seem to make more sense to put Fletcher at second and pursue Semien or Gregorius for short (or even bring back Simmons).

I like the idea of Odorizzi but we need two more starters as well (and at least one with more upside). Darvish and Musgrove would be welcomed additions, but the trade cost would be huge IMO. 

It isn't about upside with Wong, but what he actually is: a solid, quality regular. From 2017-20, he's produced at a 3.7 WAR rate per 162 games. That's an above average regular.

[totdprods]

3 hours ago, wopphil said:

I am not nearly as excited about Wong as many of you. I just don’t see the upside. Nor the need. It would seem to make more sense to put Fletcher at second and pursue Semien or Gregorius for short (or even bring back Simmons).

I like the idea of Odorizzi but we need two more starters as well (and at least one with more upside). Darvish and Musgrove would be welcomed additions, but the trade cost would be huge IMO. 

With Wong, I think it’s more about the value and the fact we have multiple needs. Simmons and the SS market could drag out too, given that Lindor will be hanging over talks. Angels could strike quick and sign Kolten to a deal early on for something very reasonable...I have seen some as low as $6-7m AAV for a year or even.

And I’m sticking to my theory that Jeremy Reed has some skill in unlocking power for lefty hitters. Wong and La Stella had nearly identical slash lines through age 29, and we know what La Stella did when he got here. 

[Docwaukee]

I am hoping that Minasian surprises us because none of the names being mentioned so far are blowing up my skirt.  

[Second Base]

26 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I am hoping that Minasian surprises us because none of the names being mentioned so far are blowing up my skirt.  

[eligrba]

26 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I am hoping that Minasian surprises us because none of the names being mentioned so far are blowing up my skirt.  

I think the small moves are what will change the Angels the most.  Hopefully, Minasian can do a better job at pickin' em.

[Second Base]

27 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I am hoping that Minasian surprises us because none of the names being mentioned so far are blowing up my skirt.  

I think I was just shooting for a middle ground likelihood based on what I'm guessing of Minasian and payroll expectations. We end up getting a decent 2B, a couple solid #3/4 starters, a late inning reliever and maybe a phone year platoon partner in RF.

[Second Base]

59 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I wonder if there’s a chance the Cubs pay a few mil of his 2021 salary in return for a prospect. Perhaps the deal I proposed above plus international slots or they chuck in one of our SS or other OF prospects or Yan.

I think there are just too many connections for it not to have a real shot. And I think the Cubs would move that contract just to avoid any chance of it going south. They’re about to go into a retooling of sorts. Now would be the time to sell him.

There are so many connections with Darvish it's crazy. Last I checked, Cubs said they won't be moving him though.

[Second Base]

A quick internet search brought up pretty much every fan base discussing what a Darvish trade would actually look like. Yankees fans seem to think Giancarlo Stanton for You Darvish would be a fair swap, but then again, Yankees fans are idiots, that's why they root for the Yankees.

[Angelsjunky]

As I see it, the Angels have five moderate-to-big holes (queue Beavis and Butthead):

Starting Pitcher

Starting Pitcher

Plus Reliever

2B/SS

RF

They don't have to fill all of them, but they need to fill some of them. Any lineup can handle a poor performer, or at least fill it with an adequate one. If the Angels go into 2021 with Ward starting in RF, it isn't the end of the world. But if they have Ward in RF, Barreto/Rengifo at 2B, and Stassi/Bemboom at C, that's a bit more dubious. 

Similarly with the staff. They don't absolute have to get two good starters, but they really should get at least one and probably a second guy who can at least step in if needed.

So my prediction is that they'll address all five of these holes to some degree. I don't know how, but they'll get at least one good starter, a second decent or better one, one or two relievers, an infielder, and an outfielder.

How they'll do this, I have no frickin idea. I'd love to see them surprise us all and get Bauer, Musgrove, Wong, McCann, May or Rosenthal...but what is that, +55-60M AAV?

Edited November 19, 2020 by Angelsjunky

[BTH]

4 hours ago, Second Base said:

- I think guys like Suarez and Sandoval will go the Sean Newcomb route, transitioning to relief and finding some success there. 

I'm very interested to see what the Angels do with Jose Suarez. He's in his last year of having options, which means he will need to be on the active roster or be DFA'd in 2022. He hasn't shown much of anything in the majors.

Now might be the time to pull the plug on him, whether that's trading him or moving him to the bullpen. However, if I'm noticing that he only has 1 year left of options, surely other teams do, and that likely lowers his value.

[Second Base]

17 minutes ago, Trendon said:

I'm very interested to see what the Angels do with Jose Suarez. He's in his last year of having options, which means he will need to be on the active roster or be DFA'd in 2022. He hasn't shown much of anything in the majors.

Now might be the time to pull the plug on him, whether that's trading him or moving him to the bullpen. However, if I'm noticing that he only has 1 year left of options, surely other teams do, and that likely lowers his value.

Well.... Shorter stature pitchers always have a harder time staying in the rotation. Suarez has always been a high strikeout pitcher, and before the velo drop last year he'd been steadily climbing into the mid 90's.

With the development of guys like Rodriguez and Detmers, the acquisition of Naughton, I think the logical conclusion would be Suarez moving to the bullpen.

The big question I'd have is if he can get righties out. Because lefty specialists seem to be getting phased out of the majors.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Trendon said:

I'm very interested to see what the Angels do with Jose Suarez. He's in his last year of having options, which means he will need to be on the active roster or be DFA'd in 2022.

Only if he spends.time on the MLB roster in 2021.

[BTH]

My prediction for what the Angels do:

Non-tender Middleton, Ramirez, and Robles.

MLB Deals: Tyler Flowers- 1/$4M, Enrique Hernandez- 2/$12M, JA Happ- 1/$6M, Shane Greene- 2/$12M.

MiLB Deals: Scott Schebler, Joe Biagini, and Adam Morgan.

Acquire Carlos Carrasco (12M) from CLE for Jordyn Adams, Luis Rengifo, and Jose Suarez.

Lineup: Fletcher SS, Trout CF, Rendon 3B, Ohtani DH, Upton LF, Walsh 1B, Hernandez 2B, Ward RF, Flowers C.

Bench: Stassi, Barreto, Schebler, Pujols.

SP: Carrasco, Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Happ.

RP: Greene, Mayers, Peña, Buttrey, Andriese, Biagini, Morgan, Barria

[angelsnationtalk]

11 hours ago, Second Base said:

I like Darvish, scratch that, I LOVE Darvish, but contractual constraints make it unlikely in my mind.

Yup. He'd have to waive NTC but the Angels could likely as Cubs to retain portion of contract. Not much, but a little. 

[Second Base]

Just now, angelsnationtalk said:

Yup. He'd have to waive NTC but the Angels could likely as Cubs to retain portion of contract. Not much, but a little. 

After 2020 he only has a partial NTC, only 1/3 of the teams. The Angels may or may not be on it.

[angelsnationtalk]

9 hours ago, Second Base said:

A quick internet search brought up pretty much every fan base discussing what a Darvish trade would actually look like. Yankees fans seem to think Giancarlo Stanton for You Darvish would be a fair swap, but then again, Yankees fans are idiots, that's why they root for the Yankees.

Cubs likely want to add top prospects and shed payroll. If that's the case then a package involving one of Adell/Marsh + others would allow then to do just that. 

Cubs would be smart to stay wayyyy clean of Stanton. Plus Yanks need him for playoff push

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Trendon said:

My prediction for what the Angels do:

Non-tender Middleton, Ramirez, and Robles.

MLB Deals: Tyler Flowers- 1/$4M, Enrique Hernandez- 2/$12M, JA Happ- 1/$6M, Shane Greene- 2/$12M.

MiLB Deals: Scott Schebler, Joe Biagini, and Adam Morgan.

Acquire Carlos Carrasco (12M) from CLE for Jordyn Adams, Luis Rengifo, and Jose Suarez.

Lineup: Fletcher SS, Trout CF, Rendon 3B, Ohtani DH, Upton LF, Walsh 1B, Hernandez 2B, Ward RF, Flowers C.

Bench: Stassi, Barreto, Schebler, Pujols.

SP: Carrasco, Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Happ.

RP: Greene, Mayers, Peña, Buttrey, Andriese, Biagini, Morgan, Barria

[Second Base]

3 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Cubs likely want to add top prospects and shed payroll. If that's the case then a package involving one of Adell/Marsh + others would allow then to do just that. 

Cubs would be smart to stay wayyyy clean of Stanton. Plus Yanks need him for playoff push

I think if the Cubs traded Darvish, they'd have to commit to a full blown rebuild, which would entail either trading or extending Javy Baez, Kris Bryant, Wilson Contreras, and Anthony Rizzo.

I just find that altogether unlikely at this point. 

They wouldn't just trade Darvish and hold onto everyone else.

They just made the playoffs, they've got a new GM stepping in to make the decisions. I think it's much more likely they give it one more shot at winning another World Series before rebuilding. Maybe that's happens mid-season, or maybe not at all.

I put the chances at a Darvish trade at 10%.

[angelsnationtalk]

11 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I think if the Cubs traded Darvish, they'd have to commit to a full blown rebuild, which would entail either trading or extending Javy Baez, Kris Bryant, Wilson Contreras, and Anthony Rizzo.

I just find that altogether unlikely at this point. 

They wouldn't just trade Darvish and hold onto everyone else.

They just made the playoffs, they've got a new GM stepping in to make the decisions. I think it's much more likely they give it one more shot at winning another World Series before rebuilding. Maybe that's happens mid-season, or maybe not at all.

I put the chances at a Darvish trade at 10%.

It depends if the article Rosenthal wrote has a backbone to it. If it's a serious topic for ownership this offseason to shed payroll then it could become a real possibility. 

If the 10% chance grows then there's no doubt the Angels will check in on asking price. 

[Second Base]

17 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

It depends if the article Rosenthal wrote has a backbone to it. If it's a serious topic for ownership this offseason to shed payroll then it could become a real possibility. 

If the 10% chance grows then there's no doubt the Angels will check in on asking price. 

They'll check in on the asking price regardless. GM's talk, and as @totdprods already indicated, there's a lot of connection here. 

I think you have to ask yourself, if Chicago hired you for millions of dollars and after years of hard work, you're now the one man in charge of making the roster decisions, it might be your one and only shot at this, would you enter a full scale rebuild? 

The Cards are good but aging, the Brewers look like they've reached the end of their short competitive window unless they get significant help from the farm, Cincy is losing Bauer, Pittsburgh is entering a rebuild. This division is extremely winnable and with expanded playoffs, you're more than likely going to make the playoffs.

Quintana and Lester are off the roster so money is freed up if you're worried about finances. Heyward's deal is also nearing its end, so you're saving money there. You had an expensive manager and president combo, both of which are gone now, so there's more money free. 

If I'm their new GM, I don't trade any of my stars. I go for another title. You know if you enter a rebuild, you're only stocking the cabinet for your successor. You won't be given the chance to see this through without contractual guarantees, which no competitive owner would ever give.

Chicago is the favorite to win that division and a long playoff run could be exactly what the team needs to retain some of its star power.

Darvish seems extremely unlikely to be dealt.

Edited November 20, 2020 by Second Base

[Docwaukee]

10 minutes ago, Second Base said:

They'll check in on the asking price regardless. GM's talk, and as @totdprods already indicated, there's a lot of connection here. 

I think you have to ask yourself, if Chicago hired you for millions of dollars and after years of hard work, you're now the one man in charge of making the roster decisions, it might be your one and only shot at this, would you enter a full scale rebuild? 

The Cards are good but aging, the Brewers look like they've reached the end of their short competitive window unless they get significant help from the farm, Cincy is losing Bauer, Pittsburgh is entering a rebuild. This division is extremely winnable and with expanded playoffs, you're more than likely going to make the playoffs.

Quintana and Lester are off the roster so money is freed up if you're worried about finances. Heyward's deal is also nearing its end, so you're saving money there. You had an expensive manager and president combo, both of which are gone now, so there's more money free. 

If I'm their new GM, I don't trade any of my stars. I go for another title. You know if you enter a rebuild, you're only stocking the cabinet for your successor. You won't be given the chance to see this through without contractual guarantees, which no competitive owner would ever give.

Chicago is the favorite to win that division and a long playoff run could be exactly what the team needs to retain some of its star power.

Darvish seems extremely unlikely to be dealt.

Ricketts is at the top of the 'owners crying poverty' list.  Their payroll currently sits at about 155m.   Heyward still has three years left btw with substantial liability still.  3/65 in fact.    

The Cubs actually remind me a lot of where the halos are at right now.  Except that their farm isn't nearly as good.  It's not the worst ever, but still a solid tier below that Angels.  

I agree that they aren't going to go into a full rebuild but I do think they'll make some cuts.  Yet I think it's unlikely that one of those will be Darvish unless they get a kings ransom in return.  

In fact, I don't think they'll off load pitching at all.   They need every bit of Darvish and Hendricks to stay competitive and it would stun be if someone took on Kimbrel even if they gave him away or included another good player along with him.  

Their rotation is already paper thin.  Their top two are very good but after that there's very little.  Alzolay looked good for a brief 2020 cup but likely ends up in the pen or maybe a mid rotation guy at best.  He's kinda their Sandoval.  Angels actually have better depth.  

They'll try to move guys on the position player side of things.  Bryant didn't do them any favors by being a slug this year.  But I think he's candidate #1 to move.  They've got Bote who's a decent replacement.  Next on the list will be Contreras who they should have traded a year ago.  A guy who I personally think is overrated.  Caratini is a decent alternate option.  

Hoerner can take 2b but they have Happ to slot in there if need be.  Kinda like the Angels situation at 2b.  Rengifo could take over but it's a bit dicey.  If the Cubs find an alternate for CF then Happ goes to 2b.  Like if the Halos found an alternate for SS, Fletcher slots over.  

If they can move Bryant and Contreras for a couple of rotation arms they'll still be very good and that's what I see them doing.  Or they'll just move them to off load the money and spend a few mil to fill out the rotation.  

[BTH]

21 hours ago, Trendon said:

My prediction for what the Angels do:

MLB Deals: Tyler Flowers- 1/$4M, Enrique Hernandez- 2/$12M, JA Happ- 1/$6M, Shane Greene- 2/$12M.