Angels Off-season Prediction Thread

[Second Base]

I wasn't sure if one of these existed yet. Get rid of it if it's a Craig, or if there are other plans. If not, feel free to make your Angels predictions here.

1. Angels sign Kolten Wong for 2 years, 14 million. 2021/5 million, 2022/9 million.

2. Angels sign Jake Odorizzi for 3 years,  39 million. 2021/9 million, 2022/15 million, 2023/15 million.

3. Angels sign Trevor May for 2 years, 14 million.

4. Angels sign Joc Peterson for one year, 6 million.

5. Angels trade Jordyn Adams, Luis Rengifo and Matt Thaiss to Pittsburgh for Joe Musgrove. 

Edited November 19, 2020 by Second Base
Title change.

[Second Base]

And my reasoning is pretty simplistic. I didn't want to overthink it.

1. Minasian said run prevention is key. There isn't a better defender at 2B than Wong. He gets on base, can run and adds another LHB to the lineup. 

2. The thing I noticed about Minasian is that he finds value in unexpected pitchers, and when it ends up working out, you look back and think to yourself, "Of course! Now I see it." Odorizzi has never been bad in his career. In fact he's been borderline ace level on several occasions. I believe he has that jump in him that brings him to a new level and Minasian will pay a reasonable price for it.

3. The only trend I could really identify in the bullpens in Minasians's tenures is that his teams tended to have one very good, high priced reliever, and a series of hard throwing homegrown arms in middle relief. I think May will be that acquisition. But an argument could be made for Hand or Rosenthal. 

4. When Minasian talked about being open to unexpected upgrades when a situation presented itself, like with Josh Donaldson in Atlanta, I see a little of that in Joc. I think he'll be undervalued as a platoon bat coming off a down year. In reality, he's going to be a middle of the order left handed bat that's looking at a one year deal so he can revisit FA next winter and get a better contract. It improves the Angels defense, gives them time to allow Adell to develop in AAA, offers depth at 1B and allows Ward to step into a platoon/utility role, which is an ideal opportunity to prove his development last year is real and sustainable.

5. I think it was either @totdprods or @Inside Pitch that said Minasian was brought in to make the trade that Eppler wouldn't. Trading Jordyn Adams is going to hurt. He's a future top 100 prospect and all star in my book, and Rengifo and Thaiss are future regulars that are short on opportunities in Anaheim. But Musgrove looks to me like the sort of mid rotation starter that brings quality and stability to a rotation, something the Angels definitely need.

Ohtani, Bundy, Musgrove, Odorizzi, Heaney and Canning could be a pretty solid collection of arms. 

Edited November 19, 2020 by Second Base

[angelsnationtalk]

8 minutes ago, Second Base said:

And my reasoning is pretty simplistic. I didn't want to overthink it.

1. Minasian said run prevention is key. Most of the time in comes in the form of pitching but sometimes, defense too. There isn't a better defender at 2B than Wong. He gets on base, can run and adds another LHB to the lineup. 

2. The thing I noticed about Minasian is that he finds value in unexpected pitchers, and when it ends up working out, you look back and think to yourself, "Of course! Now I see it." Odorizzi has never been bad in his career. In fact he's been borderline ace level on several occasions. And I believe he has that jump in him that brings him to a new level and Minasian will pay a reasonable price for it.

3. The only trend I could really identify I  the bullpens in Minasians's tenures is that his teams tended to have one very good high priced reliever, and a series of hard throwing homegrown arms in middle relief. I think May will be that acquisition. But as argument could be made for Hand or Rosenthal.

4. When Minasian talked about being open to unexpected upgrades when a situation presented itself, like with Josh Donaldson in Atlanta, I see a little of that in Joc. I think he'll be undervalued as a plain bat coming off a down year. In reality, he's going to be a middle of the order lefty handed bat that's looking at a one year deal so he can revisit FA next winter and get a better contract. It improves the Angels defense, gives them time to allow Adell to develop in AAA, offers depth at 1B and allows Ward to step into a platoon/utility role, which is an ideal opportunity to prove his development last year is real and sustainable.

5. I think it was either @totdprods or @Inside Pitch that said Minasian was brought in to make the trade that Eppler wouldn't. Trading Jordyn Adams is going to hurt. He's a future all star in my book. And Rengifo and Thaiss are future regulars that are short on opportunities in Anaheim. But Musgrove looks to me like the sort of mid rotation starter that brings quality and stability to a rotation, something the Angels definitely need.

Ohtani, Bundy, Musgrove, Odorizzi, Heaney and Canning could be a pretty solid collection of arms. 

I'd go with Wong, Tanaka or Odorizzi and Rosenthal. 

I think when you say "trade the talent that Eppler wouldn't" would apply to one of Adell or Marsh. If we can agree that Upton isn't going anywhere for two more years then this has to be a serious option. If this is the case, then Adell or Marsh would have to bring in someone better than Musgrove. This is where Darvish might come into play. I wouldn't be opposed for a package deal even if it included Adell and others for a Contreras/Darvish package.

[jsnpritchett]

Didn't we have this conversation about Joc last winter? He's not good defensively by any metrics--and the experiment with him at 1B was a disaster.

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, jsnpritchett said:

Didn't we have this conversation about Joc last winter? He's not good defensively by any metrics--and the experiment with him at 1B was a disaster.

it's customary for new members of AW to introduce themselves.  Welcome aboard.  

[totdprods]

2 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

Also, yes, there's already a thread like this from two weeks ago--and you posted a lengthy explanation of your plans, which were different from what you posted tonight. The only similarity is you have the Angels trading for Musgrove in both, but for two completely different packages of players:

 

Different thread. My thread is about what moves you would make. Not what you think the Angels will do. 

[totdprods]

Dang, @Second Base I had almost the exact same names...Wong, Odorizzi, and Joc.

I think we’ll also sign one of Melancon or Shane Greene. I think at least one of Joe Biagini, Aaron Sanchez, or Mike Foltynewicz ends up here on a minor league deal. 

Going to guess Kurt Suzuki on a one-year.

I think Thaiss is becoming a bit of an odd man out, Wong displaces Rengifo’s playing time, and one of Adams, Marsh, Adell are expendable, especially with Deveaux and Knowles still around too. Suarez is becoming a bit buried as well, especially with Detmers now in the mix. Between those four groups/players, the Angels should be able to make a pretty competitive offer with 2-3 of them for a pitcher...

I’ll actually say Thaiss, Rengifo, Suarez, and Adams for Yu Darvish and Brad Wieck.

Rotation: Darvish, Bundy, Heaney, Odorizzi, Canning, Ohtani

Bullpen: Melancon/Greene, Buttrey, Mayers, Wieck, Sandoval, Pena, Barria, Yan/C. Rodriguez 

Lineup: Fletcher SS, Walsh 1B, Trout CF, Rendon 3B, Upton LF, Ohtani/Pujols DH, Joc RF, Stassi/Suzuki C, Wong 2B

Regarding Darvish, the Rangers had been scouting him heavily for years upon years prior to signing him in the 2011 offseason. Who was a scout with Rangers from ‘03-‘09? Minasian. Who scouted Ohtani? Minasian. The Toronto Blue Jays were also heavily into Darvish, I believe perhaps even the runner-up in his bidding. Who was with Toronto at the time? Minasian. Tie all that with Maddon and Darvish being together in Chicago and Arte and the Angels own pursuit of Darvish, and it leads me to think he’ll be the big arm we acquire.

Edited November 19, 2020 by totdprods

[Stradling]

I just can’t see us adding the payroll to acquire all those guys. Darvish, Oddorizzi, Wong, Joc,  Melancon, Suzuki?  That’s gotta be $50-60 million added to the payroll.  
 

 

[totdprods]

9 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I just can’t see us adding the payroll to acquire all those guys. Darvish, Oddorizzi, Wong, Joc,  Melancon, Suzuki?  That’s gotta be $50-60 million added to the payroll.  

I wouldn’t necessarily say that I think we’ll sign all of them, just those are the guys I think they’d get to address those needs. Very possible that if they do get Darvish and Odorizzi they skimp out on Joc and Suzuki, or skip Odorizzi and count on the kids/ST invites for other arms.

Really tricky gauging values this winter so far. Joc, Odorizzi, and Wong could sign for $12+ AAV as easily as they could $7m. Melancon and Suzuki could cost $6-9m, or $3-5m. 

The fact that Odorizzi, Wong, Joc, Suzuki and Melancon could all be 1-2 year deals also make it a little more feasible too.

Edited November 19, 2020 by totdprods

[Stradling]

With a new GM lots of things could change quickly.  We could see something that hurts like us signing both Wong and Semien and trading Fletcher to get an arm.  I know Maddon loves Fletcher but I think the bargains will be on offense not on arms.  

[Warfarin]

11 hours ago, Second Base said:

I wasn't sure if one of these existed yet. Get rid of it if it's a Craig, or if there are other plans. If not, feel free to make your Angels predictions here.

1. Angels sign Kolten Wong for 2 years, 14 million. 2021/5 million, 2022/9 million.

2. Angels sign Jake Odorizzi for 3 years,  39 million. 2021/9 million, 2022/15 million, 2023/15 million.

3. Angels sign Trevor May for 2 years, 14 million.

4. Angels sign Joc Peterson for one year, 6 million.

5. Angels trade Jordyn Adams, Luis Rengifo and Matt Thaiss to Pittsburgh for Joe Musgrove. 

I think this would be a really solid offseason, although based on Odorizzi's numbers and health, I think he may get less in this market.  I also do think we will acquire a catcher, whether via trade or on the FA market.  May just be a backup catcher, but given Minasian's strong emphasis on it at his press conference, I have to imagine we'll see something like that.

I'm a fan of Joc Pederson.  I know others aren't, but I think he is a perfect complement to what we have currently.  He has typically delivered really strong offensive numbers, but he just has to be platooned, which is okay because we have Ward.

The above fits within budget, and gives us a lineup of:  SS Fletcher, 1B Walsh, CF Trout, 3B Rendon, RF Pederson, LF Upton, DH Ohtani, C Stassi, 2B Wong.

Rotation:  Bundy, Musgrove, Heaney, Odorrizi, Canning (or Barria), Ohtani*.

I'm a fan of this plan.  Our OF defense is probably still a bit weak, but our rotation is much improved and that offense is really solid, especially if Ohtani can re-discover his previous form.  It also works well in that Ohtani will get several days per week off, which enables us to mix and match others off the bench and rotate others through.

[Revad]

Well see but Ray and Smiley are off the board for a reason.

[Stradling]

9 minutes ago, Revad said:

Well see but Ray and Smiley are off the board for a reason.

$8 million and $11 million.  It’s funny, if you asked me which player got which amount I would have been wrong.

[Revad]

1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

I think this would be a really solid offseason, although based on Odorizzi's numbers and health, I think he may get less in this market.  I also do think we will acquire a catcher, whether via trade or on the FA market.  May just be a backup catcher, but given Minasian's strong emphasis on it at his press conference, I have to imagine we'll see something like that.

I'm a fan of Joc Pederson.  I know others aren't, but I think he is a perfect complement to what we have currently.  He has typically delivered really strong offensive numbers, but he just has to be platooned, which is okay because we have Ward.

The above fits within budget, and gives us a lineup of:  SS Fletcher, 1B Walsh, CF Trout, 3B Rendon, RF Pederson, LF Upton, DH Ohtani, C Stassi, 2B Wong.

Rotation:  Bundy, Musgrove, Heaney, Odorrizi, Canning (or Barria), Ohtani*.

I'm a fan of this plan.  Our OF defense is probably still a bit weak, but our rotation is much improved and that offense is really solid, especially if Ohtani can re-discover his previous form.  It also works well in that Ohtani will get several days per week off, which enables us to mix and match others off the bench and rotate others through.

 

3 minutes ago, Stradling said:

$8 million and $11 million.  It’s funny, if you asked me which player got which amount I would have been wrong.

Smiley is a risk but likely be better tan Bundy.

[wopphil]

I am not nearly as excited about Wong as many of you. I just don’t see the upside. Nor the need. It would seem to make more sense to put Fletcher at second and pursue Semien or Gregorius for short (or even bring back Simmons).

I like the idea of Odorizzi but we need two more starters as well (and at least one with more upside). Darvish and Musgrove would be welcomed additions, but the trade cost would be huge IMO. 

[halonatic13]

9 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I'd go with Wong, Tanaka or Odorizzi and Rosenthal. 

I think when you say "trade the talent that Eppler wouldn't" would apply to one of Adell or Marsh. If we can agree that Upton isn't going anywhere for two more years then this has to be a serious option. If this is the case, then Adell or Marsh would have to bring in someone better than Musgrove. This is where Darvish might come into play. I wouldn't be opposed for a package deal even if it included Adell and others for a Contreras/Darvish package.

Wait...What???  Adell to get Contreras/Darvish?  Why we can give out lower tier prospects and get the both of them.

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

With a new GM lots of things could change quickly.  We could see something that hurts like us signing both Wong and Semien and trading Fletcher to get an arm.  I know Maddon loves Fletcher but I think the bargains will be on offense not on arms.  

Heavily agree with this. There could be a lot of quality out there this winter and it could really add length to the MLB team’s depth and lineup.

It’s another reason why I think Adell could wind up dealt. He can take care of a pitching need almost by himself, and it would keep almost the rest of the farm in tact for Minasian to work with. And there are plenty of outfielders available in free agency to stopgap until Marsh or Adams come up. 

[DMVol]

 

3 hours ago, wopphil said:

I am not nearly as excited about Wong as many of you. I just don’t see the upside. Nor the need. It would seem to make more sense to put Fletcher at second and pursue Semien or Gregorius for short (or even bring back Simmons).

I like the idea of Odorizzi but we need two more starters as well (and at least one with more upside). Darvish and Musgrove would be welcomed additions, but the trade cost would be huge IMO. 

Not sure what the infatuation with Wong is either....if it's about defense, just keep Fletcher at 2b (where he is better) and re-sign Simmons....I can't imagine that Simmons will be more expensive than Wong and Wong isn't that much better offensively than Simmons to justify moving Fletcher to SS full time ....Whether Simmons burned bridges in opting out late is another question....don't  know the answer to that...

[wopphil]

21 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Heavily agree with this. There could be a lot of quality out there this winter and it could really add length to the MLB team’s depth and lineup.

It’s another reason why I think Adell could wind up dealt. He can take care of a pitching need almost by himself, and it would keep almost the rest of the farm in tact for Minasian to work with. And there are plenty of outfielders available in free agency to stopgap until Marsh or Adams come up. 

Who do you think is a realistic pitching target if we are willing to part with Adell? Presumably it must be someone with at least three, if not four, years of club control (and not a guy earning $25 mil a year). And on a team that either has no chance of competing or tons of pitching to spare. I just don’t see any fits. Maybe the Padres would move prospects, but nobody established. 

[Warfarin]

31 minutes ago, wopphil said:

Who do you think is a realistic pitching target if we are willing to part with Adell? Presumably it must be someone with at least three, if not four, years of club control (and not a guy earning $25 mil a year). And on a team that either has no chance of competing or tons of pitching to spare. I just don’t see any fits. Maybe the Padres would move prospects, but nobody established. 

Cleveland would probably be the place to look.  They seemingly produce stud pitchers yearly and have a significant SP surplus.  Just as importantly, they lack any significant OF prospects and it's known to be an area of weakness for them for many years.

I would have to imagine that the most ideal fit involves Adell going to Cleveland for one of their young, cost-controlled SPs (Pleasac, Civale, etc).  Some deal focused around an Adell for Pleasac swap would help us tremendously, IMO.

Trading Adell would hurt a lot, but we have Trout locked up for many years, Marsh on the cusp of contributing, and Upton around for 2 more years.  Ward looked serviceable in the OF.  And as mentioned, we can always find a stop-gap corner OF for very cheap as needed.  On a longer horizon, Adams projects well in CF, which one day could lead to Trout shifting to LF, yielding a Trout, Adams, and Marsh OF.

I have been on the trade Adell bandwagon for awhile.  Again, not because I don't think he'll pan out - on the contrary, I think he will be a very good MLB player for many years, but rather, because it just makes sense to trade from an area of organizational surplus to help an area of organizational weakness.

[Dtwncbad]

I see comments about Minasian possibly being willing to trade prospects that Eppler was not.

Maybe.  But for all we know Eppler would be willing to trade the same exact players this offseason now that the Angles are not last in minor league prospects.

[Second Base]

12 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I'd go with Wong, Tanaka or Odorizzi and Rosenthal. 

I think when you say "trade the talent that Eppler wouldn't" would apply to one of Adell or Marsh. If we can agree that Upton isn't going anywhere for two more years then this has to be a serious option. If this is the case, then Adell or Marsh would have to bring in someone better than Musgrove. This is where Darvish might come into play. I wouldn't be opposed for a package deal even if it included Adell and others for a Contreras/Darvish package.

I like Darvish, scratch that, I LOVE Darvish, but contractual constraints make it unlikely in my mind.

[Second Base]

4 hours ago, totdprods said:

Dang, @Second Base I had almost the exact same names...Wong, Odorizzi, and Joc.

I think we’ll also sign one of Melancon or Shane Greene. I think at least one of Joe Biagini, Aaron Sanchez, or Mike Foltynewicz ends up here on a minor league deal. 

Going to guess Kurt Suzuki on a one-year.

I think Thaiss is becoming a bit of an odd man out, Wong displaces Rengifo’s playing time, and one of Adams, Marsh, Adell are expendable, especially with Deveaux and Knowles still around too. Suarez is becoming a bit buried as well, especially with Detmers now in the mix. Between those four groups/players, the Angels should be able to make a pretty competitive offer with 2-3 of them for a pitcher...

I’ll actually say Thaiss, Rengifo, Suarez, and Adams for Yu Darvish and Brad Wieck.

Rotation: Darvish, Bundy, Heaney, Odorizzi, Canning, Ohtani

Bullpen: Melancon/Greene, Buttrey, Mayers, Wieck, Sandoval, Pena, Barria, Yan/C. Rodriguez 

Lineup: Fletcher SS, Walsh 1B, Trout CF, Rendon 3B, Upton LF, Ohtani/Pujols DH, Joc RF, Stassi/Suzuki C, Wong 2B

Regarding Darvish, the Rangers had been scouting him heavily for years upon years prior to signing him in the 2011 offseason. Who was a scout with Rangers from ‘03-‘09? Minasian. Who scouted Ohtani? Minasian. The Toronto Blue Jays were also heavily into Darvish, I believe perhaps even the runner-up in his bidding. Who was with Toronto at the time? Minasian. Tie all that with Maddon and Darvish being together in Chicago and Arte and the Angels own pursuit of Darvish, and it leads me to think he’ll be the big arm we acquire.

- Darvish checks all the boxes, but I'm not convinced the Cubs move him, nor am I convinced the Angels could for him in the payroll.

- I think guys like Suarez and Sandoval will go the Sean Newcomb route, transitioning to relief and finding some success there. 

- Yes in every bullpen name you listed.

- Yes on Suzuki.

[Second Base]

4 hours ago, Warfarin said:

I think this would be a really solid offseason, although based on Odorizzi's numbers and health, I think he may get less in this market.  I also do think we will acquire a catcher, whether via trade or on the FA market.  May just be a backup catcher, but given Minasian's strong emphasis on it at his press conference, I have to imagine we'll see something like that.

I'm a fan of Joc Pederson.  I know others aren't, but I think he is a perfect complement to what we have currently.  He has typically delivered really strong offensive numbers, but he just has to be platooned, which is okay because we have Ward.

The above fits within budget, and gives us a lineup of:  SS Fletcher, 1B Walsh, CF Trout, 3B Rendon, RF Pederson, LF Upton, DH Ohtani, C Stassi, 2B Wong.

Rotation:  Bundy, Musgrove, Heaney, Odorrizi, Canning (or Barria), Ohtani*.

I'm a fan of this plan.  Our OF defense is probably still a bit weak, but our rotation is much improved and that offense is really solid, especially if Ohtani can re-discover his previous form.  It also works well in that Ohtani will get several days per week off, which enables us to mix and match others off the bench and rotate others through.

I agree on Joc. Imagine how that left handed power will play with the short walk in RF. It worked wonders for La Stella.

[Second Base]

Based on Gausman and Stroman narrowing the market by accepting the QO, Smyly getting 11 million, and Ray getting 8 million....

PITCHING IS GOING TO BE EXPENSIVE. 

Again. 

Like it is every year. Eppler never wanted to pay a premium for it. That's why you have to draft, sign and develop a lot of it, and the quality must be high. Not just quantity like Dipoto and Eppler.

Edited November 19, 2020 by Second Base