Ohtani pitching in 2021

[Junkballer]

2 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Question is, how many pitchers have pitched just 80 innings over 4 years, and were then able to eventually get to even 120 innings?

The number is probably pretty low, but still, he has a repaired elbow and knee.  Getting shut down in 2020 was not directly related to his reconstructed elbow as far as we know.  IMO he was clearly learning how to pitch again, failing, and with the forearm strain and shortened season that they thought they needed every win to advance to the playoffs, they werent willing to let him work things out during the season because they had another option.  Its my belief that had the Angels not have the option for him to DH, they would have let him work things out in Long Beach and brought him back during the season. 

[rafibomb]

With a full spring training and actual rehab under his belt, I believe Ohtani will have his best year on the mound. However, we shouldn't pencil him in the rotation when putting our offseason plans in action. 

[Docwaukee]

the rotation is still potentially very fragile even beyond Ohtani.  I definitely worry about Canning and Heaney as well.  I just don't see a top of the rotation arm being available at a price I'd consider.  Get me a couple of guys who can combine for 350 innings and an era of around 4.3 or so.  

[arch stanton]

Yeah for the next season or two the mantra for the starters should be "just don't suck". Without the throwaway games pitched by Ohtani and Teheran there's a solid chance it's the angels who lose to the Rays in the ALCS

[Jason]

6 hours ago, Second Base said:

The Angels need pitching, and if we're being specific, could really use an ace. We have a kid here, that's fully capable of being the best damn pitcher in baseball. I think too many people have forgotten just how good Shohei Ohtani is on the mound. 

Put him out there once a week. Let him play baseball. Don't be jaded by the past. It's a new season, he's rested and entering his prime. 

If he gets hurt, then you put him on the DL and do your best to move on. But what you don't do is limit him. The baseball world deserves better than that. 

Because if Shohei is healthy, then he's going to be a force to be reckoned with, the likes of which modern baseball has never seen before, or may ever see again.

 

You mean when he gets hurt put him in the DL? Several people have commented here that it would be prudent for the team not make him part of your rotation plan for 2021. I think that is the right way to approach their plans for him.

[tdawg87]

3 hours ago, Dochalo said:

the rotation is still potentially very fragile even beyond Ohtani.  I definitely worry about Canning and Heaney as well.  I just don't see a top of the rotation arm being available at a price I'd consider.  Get me a couple of guys who can combine for 350 innings and an era of around 4.3 or so.  

I know your knowledge about baseball far surpasses mine, but I'm not sure I agree.

I think what you described is Jaime Barria and Patrick Sandoval, minus about 50 innings. I'd hope we aim a bit higher than that. 

Bauer would be nice but I don't see that happening. Stroman would probably be the better option, but we just don't know what the market will be like yet. 

I've criticized people for seemingly wanting to trade Adell, but I'm not opposed to it so long as we're packaging him for a good starter with at least 3 years of control. I don't have anyone specific in mind (again we have no idea what the market will be) but we need 2 starters regardless and I don't see us getting both through FA, no matter who the GM is.

As for Heaney and Canning, I agree that their health is definitely a concern, not to mention Ohtani. And that's exactly why we need 2 starters. 

I really hope we can get Stroman at least, but we can't put all our eggs into one basket like we did with Cole. Gotta have a backup plan and it can't be a hitter. We have some solid trade pieces so perhaps it's time to pull the trigger on something big. With Covid I think farm systems have changed drastically. Every prospect essentially missed a year and who knows what's going to happen in 2021. Not saying we should empty the farm, but I don't think hoarding prospects is the way to go right now.

We'll see what the new GM does.

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

I know your knowledge about baseball far surpasses mine, but I'm not sure I agree.

I think what you described is Jaime Barria and Patrick Sandoval, minus about 50 innings. I'd hope we aim a bit higher than that. 

Bauer would be nice but I don't see that happening. Stroman would probably be the better option, but we just don't know what the market will be like yet. 

I've criticized people for seemingly wanting to trade Adell, but I'm not opposed to it so long as we're packaging him for a good starter with at least 3 years of control. I don't have anyone specific in mind (again we have no idea what the market will be) but we need 2 starters regardless and I don't see us getting both through FA, no matter who the GM is.

As for Heaney and Canning, I agree that their health is definitely a concern, not to mention Ohtani. And that's exactly why we need 2 starters. 

I really hope we can get Stroman at least, but we can't put all our eggs into one basket like we did with Cole. Gotta have a backup plan and it can't be a hitter. We have some solid trade pieces so perhaps it's time to pull the trigger on something big. With Covid I think farm systems have changed drastically. Every prospect essentially missed a year and who knows what's going to happen in 2021. Not saying we should empty the farm, but I don't think hoarding prospects is the way to go right now.

We'll see what the new GM does.

Right.  My reasoning for trading Adell isn't so much that he didn't look ready last year, but rather, that he is, by far, our best "prospect," and that position happens to by far be our deepest on the club.  It makes sense, to me, to trade from an area of significant surplus (OF) to fix an area of significant weakness (SP).

With Marsh and Adams, we have two top 100 prospects who will, hopefully, join Trout in the OF.  Marsh seems like he could be ready next year, while Adams is probably about 2 years or so away, which is okay because we still have Upton on the team in the interim.

This FA market also projects to have some pretty cheap, decent OF options, so we can even pick up someone like a Joc Pederson on a 1 year commitment to cover the OF, along with Trout, Upton, and Ward.  I don't know exactly who Adell could get in a return, but as long as the SP is young and has many years of control remaining (4 or more ideally), it seems worthwhile to me.

People say Adell has lost value because he's not a prospect, but no MLB team cares about that.  What they care most about is years of control, and Adell still has 6 years of control remaining.  I have mentioned Pleasac as a target because the Indians are known for having an incredible SP surplus, but also for having an awful OF pipeline.  It seems we match up well with them, and I would like to think our new GM could try to work out some kind of deal with them, so that each team can benefit and help each other's weaknesses.

[tdawg87]

13 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Right.  My reasoning for trading Adell isn't so much that he didn't look ready last year, but rather, that he is, by far, our best "prospect," and that position happens to by far be our deepest on the club.  It makes sense, to me, to trade from an area of significant surplus (OF) to fix an area of significant weakness (SP).

With Marsh and Adams, we have two top 100 prospects who will, hopefully, join Trout in the OF.  Marsh seems like he could be ready next year, while Adams is probably about 2 years or so away, which is okay because we still have Upton on the team in the interim.

This FA market also projects to have some pretty cheap, decent OF options, so we can even pick up someone like a Joc Pederson on a 1 year commitment to cover the OF, along with Trout, Upton, and Ward.  I don't know exactly who Adell could get in a return, but as long as the SP is young and has many years of control remaining (4 or more ideally), it seems worthwhile to me.

People say Adell has lost value because he's not a prospect, but no MLB team cares about that.  What they care most about is years of control, and Adell still has 6 years of control remaining.  I have mentioned Pleasac as a target because the Indians are known for having an incredible SP surplus, but also for having an awful OF pipeline.  It seems we match up well with them, and I would like to think our new GM could try to work out some kind of deal with them, so that each team can benefit and help each other's weaknesses.

I mean Plesac would be incredible, but talented pitchers with 6 years of control are more valuable than position players, I think. The only thing Adell has over Plesac is his age.

That would be incredible, but I don't think Cleveland is going to trade him. If they do, and they'd discuss a trade with the Angels, I think you can say goodbye to Adell AND Marsh, and then Fletcher as well. Plus more. Kochanowicz etc...

Carrasco is probably a better fit, but I'm not a fan of his age.

 

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

I know your knowledge about baseball far surpasses mine, but I'm not sure I agree.

I think what you described is Jaime Barria and Patrick Sandoval, minus about 50 innings. I'd hope we aim a bit higher than that. 

Bauer would be nice but I don't see that happening. Stroman would probably be the better option, but we just don't know what the market will be like yet. 

I've criticized people for seemingly wanting to trade Adell, but I'm not opposed to it so long as we're packaging him for a good starter with at least 3 years of control. I don't have anyone specific in mind (again we have no idea what the market will be) but we need 2 starters regardless and I don't see us getting both through FA, no matter who the GM is.

As for Heaney and Canning, I agree that their health is definitely a concern, not to mention Ohtani. And that's exactly why we need 2 starters. 

I really hope we can get Stroman at least, but we can't put all our eggs into one basket like we did with Cole. Gotta have a backup plan and it can't be a hitter. We have some solid trade pieces so perhaps it's time to pull the trigger on something big. With Covid I think farm systems have changed drastically. Every prospect essentially missed a year and who knows what's going to happen in 2021. Not saying we should empty the farm, but I don't think hoarding prospects is the way to go right now.

We'll see what the new GM does.

Based on what you wrote, I'm not sure you don't agree.  

In my head I really already had Barria at least throwing 150 innings on top of the two I mentioned.  Maybe Sandoval can do the same but I am a little less confident that he's ready to do so just yet but either way I think we'll need at least one of them to do so even if we add two starters.  We might need the other to do that as well to make up for the innings both Heaney and/or Canning won't throw over the course of a full season.   I just don't see them maintaining the pace they were on during the shortened year.  Essentially, I think between Canning, Heaney, Barria and Sandoval, you've got about 2 and a half rotation spots worth of innings.  Bundy gives you 3 and a half.  Adding two starters give you an extra half a persons worth of depth.  

I think Stroman could be one of the guys I'm talking about.  And maybe trading a guy like Adell gets you the second.  I would expect that if you trade Adell though, you've got some upside of that guy being more than a #3 eventually but maybe not in 2021.  

I don't WANT to trade Adell either but I think most of us around here viewed him as completely untouchable like he could be the second coming of Trout.  His struggles have made everyone (around here anyway) realize that he's clearly not even though people around baseball likely already knew that.  So now he's become 'touchable' if you will even though he's the same guy he's always been.  

We don't (and never really did) have the immediate OF depth that many think or thought we did.  But there is organizational depth in the OF which bodes well for a trade.  Even though I don't have a problem with trading from that, my biggest concern is that we'll be required to trade from an area where we don't have org depth in order to get the player we need.  So while Adell is still a better prospect and has more value than guys like Detmers, Rodriguez and Kochanowicz, the latter three actually have more value to the org and in my mind can't be traded.  

I also think that the price of poker for a controllable young starter with upside goes up even further with the weak FA class and if teams don't want to spend as well as if they expand the playoff and teams want to hold on to their talent.  So that's why even if they would consider trading Adell, you aren't as likely to have as many options available in trade and you'll have more suitors involved in wanting those guys.  We have the prospect capital in terms of that headliner but now it's the secondary guys that would need to be included that worry me.  Where that one guy and a few parts might have gotten us what we need in the past, I don't think that's the case anymore and one deal could really thin us out.  

We need another Bundy type of deal but god forbid if they get it wrong.  

[Angels 1961]

15 hours ago, Lazorko Saves said:

Pfft, I'm way ahead of y'all.  I'm already over Jared Walsh and Reid Detmers.

I'm ahead of you I'm over our new GM

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

I mean Plesac would be incredible, but talented pitchers with 6 years of control are more valuable than position players, I think. The only thing Adell has over Plesac is his age.

That would be incredible, but I don't think Cleveland is going to trade him. If they do, and they'd discuss a trade with the Angels, I think you can say goodbye to Adell AND Marsh, and then Fletcher as well. Plus more. Kochanowicz etc...

Carrasco is probably a better fit, but I'm not a fan of his age.

 

Good points.  FWIW, Pleasac has 5 years of control remaining (as opposed to 6), but that likely doesn't change the calculus too much in that regard.

[Docwaukee]

the other thing about Adell that this year proved is that he's not ready.  Again, I think that was most likely to be well known but it also means that he's unlikely to be a target for teams that are intent on making the playoffs in 2021.   And since there are more teams that will make the playoffs if they keep the same format, it limits the options for the halos as to who they could partner with in a trade.  Any team that would take Adell for a major league pitcher is essentially declaring to the fans that they don't intend on making the playoffs in 2021.  

[BTH]

7 hours ago, Warfarin said:

People say Adell has lost value because he's not a prospect, but no MLB team cares about that.  What they care most about is years of control, and Adell still has 6 years of control remaining.

Jo Adell's value has dropped, and there's a simple reason why:

While Adell still has the same potential, this past season shows that he still needs to develop more before he starts performing well. He has 6 years of control, but he may not be a solid contributor until he has 4 or 5 years of control left, because we saw that he still needs to develop. That severely hurts his value, because teams weigh what production they are getting during team control, and not just the number of years of control.

Simply put, Jo Adell with 6 years of good production has more value than Jo Adell with 4-5 years of good production and 1-2 years of development.

[ukyah]

16 hours ago, Lazorko Saves said:

Completely agree with this.  I just don't get why we'd try to shut down his pitching career.

If Canning has elbow trouble again next year, do we release/non-tender him?  Of course not.  But some of ya'll want to "release" or "non-tender" Ohtani the pitcher already at age 25?  Ohtani is like having two cost controlled players for the price of one, and going hitter-only with him is just like placing one of those players on irrevocable waivers.

[ukyah]

13 hours ago, Dochalo said:

the rotation is still potentially very fragile even beyond Ohtani.  I definitely worry about Canning and Heaney as well.  I just don't see a top of the rotation arm being available at a price I'd consider.  Get me a couple of guys who can combine for 350 innings and an era of around 4.3 or so.  

i understand this, but the angels have been doing this for several years now and they haven't figured out how to actually do it, yet.

[Warfarin]

34 minutes ago, Trendon said:

Jo Adell's value has dropped, and there's a simple reason why:

While Adell still has the same potential, this past season shows that he still needs to develop more before he starts performing well. He has 6 years of control, but he may not be a solid contributor until he has 4 or 5 years of control left, because we saw that he still needs to develop. That severely hurts his value, because teams weigh what production they are getting during team control, and not just the number of years of control.

Simply put, Jo Adell with 6 years of good production has more value than Jo Adell with 4-5 years of good production and 1-2 years of development.

Sure, this is definitely a fair take.

If the Indians (or whomever) did acquire him, they could likely stash him in AAA and have him fine tune his approach before he's called up.  The tools are all very loud and present, but I do agree that his stunningly poor performance has hurt his value, to a degree.

[Junkballer]

 

Shouldnt be a surprise to anyone but the Angels are clearly preparing to evaluate Ohtani in spring 2021.  Whether the new GM will be counting  on innings from him is anybodys guess but hopefully he will  proceed by setting up his rotation by viewing Ohtanis contributions as a bonus that will allow him to be flexible in the trade market at some point before the trade deadline.

[Angel Oracle]

If this doesn’t work as a starter in 2021, it’s time to look at making him a late innings guy used when they have a lead.   That way, he can DH through say the 6th inning, and then warm up as late inning relievers usually do.

They would lose the DH after he enters the game, but it’s late in the game anyway.

[kevinb]

If Ohtani can stay healthy he can continue to pitch, but if there are set backs and he can't get through the season. If I were the Angels I would have the discussion with him about playing a position and just focusing on hitting. The Angels need people they can rely on and being available every day is important. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

Is Ohtani back in Japan or did he stick around here to work on his throwing? It sure would nice to get him back to where he was on his first start at  Angel Stadium...

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 11/7/2020 at 12:41 AM, rafibomb said:

With a full spring training and actual rehab under his belt, I believe Ohtani will have his best year on the mound. However, we shouldn't pencil him in the rotation when putting our offseason plans in action. 

The jury is still out on how normal spring training will be, let alone a 162 game season. Just getting a 60 game season completed during this pandemic was extremely difficult. I truly hope this vaccine is effective as it promises to be or we're going to have another hectic year. A bubble for 7 months is unrealistic...