Inside Edge: Why are we so bad? Addressing the Elephant in the Room.

[Lifetime]

Mudville, the 30-40 estimate is based off of league average defense. We have allowed about 40 more runs than a league average defense would've allowed with the same pitching performance. It has NOTHING to do with unearned runs or fantasy leagues. DRS is a comparative stat on fielder range, quality of throws, balls that drop in the outfield or get through the infield that should not in the average defense. It is complete separate from unearned runs, which is why I discuss them in different sections of the article.

LT, I understand you can't fully separate out pitching & defense but sabermetricians are getting better at it each year. Also, I'm not just relying on DRS for the 40 run figure, Baseball Reference has it at 40 as well. Additionally, however many runs it is, they are comparatively the second worst defense in the majors. That is unbelievably bad. Yes, there are "a poop load" of hits but how many of those are due to bad defense as opposed to the pitchers?

About Trout, DRS has him worse in CF than in LF. As I've watched Trout I've witnessed him taking multiple bad routes, sometimes his speed helps him recover and make the play and sometimes it doesn't. I'm sure he has had a hard time in left and can chalk his troubles there to learning left field but why is he struggling in center?

No doubt the storm is perfect but the regulars not on the DL are not picking up the slack on defense. You have to admit also that the starters and relievers pitched much better in May. The stats i used tried to filter out quality of competition for them too, so it probably isn't a complete mirage. With an improved pitching staff and average offense why are we doing this bad? And that's the point of this piece, our biggest problem is that we rank 29th in the league on D.

Comparatively, not many of that poop load are due to poor defense. 

 

Again, it's not all about the DL. The point is, it's a factor that plays into the poor defense. As is the pitching. Yes, the starters and pen has pitched much better in May.

 

I know Trout doesn't always take good routes in either field, but as you said, more times than not, he is able to make up for that with his speed. His speed also allows him to get to some balls that the average OF would not. His defense has not been a big factor in all of this, nor has Kendrick's.

 

I am aware of what the stats you are using are trying to filter out, I don't think they do a very good job. No one is arguing that the defense hasn't been subpar or that that hasn't played a part in the team's struggles to this point. I don't think it is the outweighing factor however - or the elephant in the room as you put it. I get the point of the piece, I'm simply offering more food for thought. I don't think it's our biggest problem. I think it's more a symptom than a cause.

 

Poor pitching puts more pressure on defenses and offenses to make up the slack. Not a big deal when it happens on occasion throughout the season. But when it is happening night in and night out, defenses press, offenses press. They over play, they make mistakes. Then on top of that there's the DL. It's all in the mix here, it's all intertwined. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

The Angels are 8th out of 15 teams in the AL (one run ahead of Toronto). Since the NL doesn't use the DH, you can't bring the NL teams into the discussion. For the first approx. 60 games, the offense has been average to slight below average, but it's been a lot worse than expected.

sure, NL teams don't have the dh. But a lot of the heavy hitting NL teams play in better hitters parks thsn we do.

[Blarg]

DRS is sounding a lot like BABIP, an excuse for bad pitching but instead of a hitter getting lucky or a pitcher unlucky let us just say the defense was bad.

[GregAlso]

LT, yes they are intertwined I agree. It is impossible to fully piece them all out. I think relying on multiple defensive metrics you can get a better understanding of quality of the defense. How much of the pitchers pressing is related to 38+ errors? We both know errors are a subjective stat and that there are some 'errors' that cost an easy DP that are not called errors because one out was recorded. Those can lead to one or more runs. The pressure of that on a staff is also hard to measure.

The point is whether its 40 runs or 20 runs below average we should not be 29th overall. Our defensive struggles have been thought to be an afterthought and one of many problems. My hypothesis is it is a bigger problem than anyone is considering? How much do misplays in the field or beating up on oneself for missing a play you should've made affect you at the plate? Sure, it isn't suppose to but these are still human beings with real emotions and disappointments. I respect what you're saying but I really feel the defense is putting more stress on the pitching with multiple misplays and runs allowed. I also think the defense could be effecting the offense a little too. The Angels also believed it to be a big issue as well considering they brought Vizquel up to help.

I called it the elephant in the sense it was being largely ignored. Most articles were saying 'its the pitching' or 'it's the 3/4 hitters,' but nobody was talking about just how bad the defense was. So, in the sabermetric blog, I used numbers to try to quantify how bad they really were and how much they are affecting the overall results.

[Lifetime]

It's not being ignored though. It's just not being emphasized because it isn't the biggest issue. Looming much larger in the poor start is the poor pitching and the ripple effect that has on defenses and offenses alike. Add to that the poor showing from our middle of the order and we've got problems. Again, my issue with your premise is the over emphasis, or as I perceived it, on the defense as the culprit for the struggles.

[AngelsLakersFan]

The defense has been bad, a lot of this has had to do with Trumbo playing first over Albert, Shuck and Harris getting significant time with Aybar and Bourjos hurt, Callaspo's inexplicable shityness, and Chris Iannetta. 

 

That said I think the numbers overstate the issue. The pitching has been sooooo bad that the stats think everyone sucks. The stats are going to look at where balls are hit, whether they are line drives, ground balls, fly balls and what not and expecting everything else to average out. Ultimately the stats aren't quantifying just how hard some of these balls are coming off the bat, and just how tough some of these plays have been. I don't think it's a coincidence that our horrible pitching has coincided with inexplicably bad defense.

[GregAlso]

I don't think that the bad pitching is primarily to blame. I can't remember how many times an easy DP was miffed by our MIF and runs scored. I've seen games lost by just the unearned runs. I've watched balls getting through the IF that should not have. I've seen misplays at the wall by the OF. I don't blame any of that on the pitching. Those extra outs fielders give away really tax pitchers, at least forcing them to make a number of extra pitches. LT, others may not be paying attention to this problem because most just look where everyone else is looking. That is why I looked into how much the defense was actually costing the team.

The numbers may be fooled but in a sabermetric blog all I can do is analyze those numbers. If you disagree with the statistics themsleves then I don't know what to say. I buy into the premise these numbers are based on. I know they're not perfect but they can't all be completely wrong. It seems the argument is with the statistics and not anything else. I didn't create the stats. I only analyze them and help people understand them. I am not writing this from a scouting point of view, so, I can't argue that with ya there. I'll just have to agree to disagree.

PS some of the stats do look at batted ball type and some are created by scouts watching each and every play.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

One thing about the runs equation: This is entirely subjective, and I haven't done any research on it, but it seems that this team has a disturbing tendency to have mismatches in pitching and offensive production. When we score a lot of runs, the pitching sucks. When the pitching is nails, we don't score. The timing of the runs is as telling as anything, IMO.

[Lifetime]

 I don't think that the bad pitching is primarily to blame. Ithat  can't remember how many times an easy DP was miffed by our MIF and runs scored. I've seen games lost by just the unearned runs. I've watched balls getting through the IF that should not have. I've seen misplays at the wall by the OF. I don't blame any of that on the pitching. Those extra outs fielders give away really tax pitchers, at least forcing them to make a number of extra pitches. LT, others may not be paying attention to this problem because most just look where everyone else is looking. That is why I looked into how much the defense was actually costing.

The numbers may be fooled but in a sabermetric blog all I can do is analyze those numbers. If you disagree with the statistics themsleves then I don't know what to say. I buy into the premise these numbers are based on. I know they're not perfect but they can't all be completely wrong. It seems the argument is with the statistics and not anything else. I didn't create the stats. I only analyze them and help people understand them. I am not writing this from a scouting point of view, so, I can't argue that with ya there. I'll just have to agree to disagree.

PS some of the stats do look at batted ball type and some are created by scouts watching each and every play.

The disagreement is that I think the metrics overstate the runs lost to poor defense. Since that is the basis for your argument, then I also disagree with your conclusion. I get your goal here Greg, but I think it's overstated for the reasons I've outlined. 

[GregAlso]

The disagreement is that I think the metrics overstate the runs lost to poor defense. Since that is the basis for your argument, then I also disagree with your conclusion. I get your goal here Greg, but I think it's overstated for the reasons I've outlined.

Even if the number, 40+ runs, is overstated the comparative analysis isn't. By both defensive metrics we are second to last in defense in the league. That is incredibly terrible, no matter how many runs it is. You'd have to agree to going from nearly last in defense to top third is pretty significant.

[Docwaukee]

Being on pace to lose 12 more games than we would have if our defense was average seems a bit much. Last year we were + 60 so 1/3 of the way thru we are talking about a six game swing on defense alone? So if we had similar defense to last year and all else eas equal we'd be 32-28? That seems like too much allocated to defense. Maybe 2-3 games.

I agree the defense has been bad, but even if it were stellar I'd think we'd stil be below .500. Minimal production from weaver

, josh and Albert have had a larger effect.

[Mudville]

The defense did not blow this game.

[Lifetime]

Even if the number, 40+ runs, is overstated the comparative analysis isn't. By both defensive metrics we are second to last in defense in the league. That is incredibly terrible, no matter how many runs it is. You'd have to agree to going from nearly last in defense to top third is pretty significant.

Well again, no one is disputing the defense has been sub par. The contention really lies in the root cause and other factors and their influence on those numbers and the losses. 

[Jay]

Today I learned that Rbaser is a meaningless stat.

Nice perspective but the defense is only one of several problems with this team.

[GregAlso]

Well again, no one is disputing the defense has been sub par. The contention really lies in the root cause and other factors and their influence on those numbers and the losses.

I would say it has been extraordinarily bad defense, near worst in the league bad. I'm curious, what number of runs do you believe the Angels defense has allowed over an average defense? How about a top 10 defense?

I naturally believe in a number near the DRS #, but if pressed I'd say minimally 20 runs over average. I'd also say they cost us 25-30 over top 10 defense.

[GregAlso]

Being on pace to lose 12 more games than we would have if our defense was average seems a bit much. Last year we were + 60 so 1/3 of the way thru we are talking about a six game swing on defense alone? So if we had similar defense to last year and all else eas equal we'd be 32-28? That seems like too much allocated to defense. Maybe 2-3 games.

I agree the defense has been bad, but even if it were stellar I'd think we'd stil be below .500. Minimal production from weaver

, josh and Albert have had a larger effect.

Actually we are only talking about a 6 games swing, not 12. We were 26-33 at the time of the article. If 6 losses become 6 wins then our record is 32-27. You said you don't think the defense alone would get us .500. You also said 2-3 games were reasonable. 3 wins is 29-30 and 4 wins is 30-29, so I don't think it is that far fetched an idea.

[edcoffin]

From a neutral - wait, make that generalized - perspective, one thing rather stands out.  Losing winnable games.  Over the long run, a team that loses when it is positioned to win needs to look at a mix:  (a) walks and errors that put opponents on base, ( poor decisions - OF'ers throwing to the wrong base, missing cutoff men, not turning a DP when you could but no error since you registered an out but not two etc, and © situational hitting - moving runners into scoring position, bringing in runners with two outs, failing to score with RISP and less than two outs.  The stats, including defensive metrics, provide not only historical information but are a fair source of predictability.  The downside is that predictability does not in fact assure you of what will happen.  It's like the batting order doesn't matter mantra - and can, and does, based on the predilection of a batter to hit ground balls, sustain a LD rate, or strike out a lot.  (True it's random given you can't be sure when preceeding batters will get on base).  But the a-b-c triple lens will tell you more that DRS or other functional effectiveness calculations.  Just MHO.

[Angel Oracle]

Trout only played LF for 4 weeks so far, and thus LF is minimized so far.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Being on pace to lose 12 more games than we would have if our defense was average seems a bit much. Last year we were + 60 so 1/3 of the way thru we are talking about a six game swing on defense alone? So if we had similar defense to last year and all else eas equal we'd be 32-28? That seems like too much allocated to defense. Maybe 2-3 games.

I agree the defense has been bad, but even if it were stellar I'd think we'd stil be below .500. Minimal production from weaver

, josh and Albert have had a larger effect.

 

This was essentially the point I was trying to make in my previous post. The defense has been bad but the lineup is not THAT different from last season's, and there is an absolutely huuuuge difference between performance ratings.

[Mudville]

When being stampeded by a herd of elephants, does it really matter which one has the biggest foot?

[AngelsLakersFan]

When being stampeded by a herd of elephants, does it really matter which one has the biggest foot?

 

Someone should pass this along to Jose Mota!

[Mark68]

Nice write-up. I knew the defense up til now wasn't very good, but didn't realize it was that bad. The errors are really annoying, because a lot of them seem mental.

Hell, there's physical errors, which is what the stat usually shows, and there are mental errors, which don't (usually) show up in the stat line (except for sabermetric ones). There have been plenty of both.

 

How often do we see opponents getting extra outs and knowing--just KNOWING--that it will cost additional runs?

[GregAlso]

For those who want to know more about how these defensive metrics are calculated and why Trout is doing so bad so far then I suggest you read this: http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=sweetspot&id=36800&src=desktop

[Mark68]

I don't think you can discount the impact the DL has had on the defense in evaluating this in perspective. And, I think the poor pitching early on zaps some of the defensive sharpness as well.

No, you certainly can't discount the impact that the DL has, but a lot of teams have had a lot of players on the DL and it doesn't seem to have affected their performance (the Yankees, Rangers, and A's for example...although that is a testament to these teams' depth).

 

I think poor pitching and defense go hand in hand. One effects the other. The pitching wouldn't be so bad if the defense was better, but the defense probably wouldn't be so bad if the pitching was better.