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The Official 2020-2021 Hot Stove Offseason Thread


rafibomb

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1 hour ago, rafibomb said:

 

Trade for SP Musgrove (Arb 2 ~$4m) 

Sign SP Kluber (2 Year, $20m. 2023, $12m option, $2m buyout)

Sign OF Pederson (1 Year, $10m. 2022, $12m option, $1m buyout)

Sign RP Yates (1 Year, $6m)

Sign C Flowers (1 Year, $4m)

Of course signing Kluber is dependent on how he looks during his workout next week.

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11 hours ago, Jinzu said:

Trade for SP Musgrove (Arb 2 ~$4m) 

Sign SP Kluber (2 Year, $20m. 2023, $12m option, $2m buyout)

Sign OF Pederson (1 Year, $10m. 2022, $12m option, $1m buyout)

Sign RP Yates (1 Year, $6m)

Sign C Flowers (1 Year, $4m)

Of course signing Kluber is dependent on how he looks during his workout next week.

Good base, but i'd shoot much higher (not my money) by replacing Kluber with Bauer.  And i don't think Joc gets that much -- regardless, i'd replace with a lower priced guy ($5M range).

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https://sny.tv/articles/what-s-next-for-the-mets-after-trading-for-francisco-lindor-and-carlos-carrasco-

As you know, the Mets have been negotiating with Springer for much of the offseason. According to league sources, the centerfielder is seeking approximately $175 million. The Mets, per sources, had been willing to offer a five-year deal for somewhat less than $150 million.

The Toronto Blue Jays, meanwhile, recently made an opening offer to Springer in the $115 million range, per sources briefed on those talks (Springer’s agent, Casey Close, did not respond to a request for comment).

With Lindor on board, the Mets are less likely to sign Springer. Here’s why: The team will not exceed the $210 million luxury tax threshold this offseason. We’re not sure where the notion came from that money is no object for Steve Cohen’s Mets; it certainly didn’t come from Cohen, Sandy Alderson or Jared Porter. And it is far from the truth.

Cohen has already spent prolifically this offseason, to the tune of about $50 million between Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, James McCann and Trevor May.

That brings the team’s 2021 payroll to a bit under $190 million, leaving just over $20 million of space before hitting the luxury tax. Also, and this is key, the Mets would prefer to begin the season $5-$10 million under the tax level, so they can add players during the season. That’s the industry standard and it’s particularly relevant when Springer’s asking price bumps up against that number.

According to sources (and basic math), signing Springer would now likely require shedding payroll in a different trade, or backloading his contract. If Springer is willing to be patient and flexible, he might yet be a Met. But the picture changed dramatically today.

As for Bauer? Executives around the league believe that he is hoping to break Gerrit Cole’s record of $36 million in average annual value. Please don’t tell Bauer I wrote that, as I’m not interested in a Twitter war. But it’s obviously very hard to see how the Mets find that amount of payroll now.

Per sources, the Mets are also now out on starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi, because Carrasco essentially takes the role that Odorizzi would have served.

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7 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Would the difference in Musgrove’s and Gray’s salaries come into play for Arte?

I think so depending on what else is done this off-season. Roughly $9 million difference in 2021. 

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24 minutes ago, Second Base said:

So Musgrove and Odorizzi it is!

This is my #1 option.  Would still have some money to spend on a RP and/or RF.

I'd love to get Bauer, but i ultimately think the cost/years will be too much.  If he is willing to take 4-5 years $30-35M annually, then i'd be in.  I don't think he's worth over $30M but quite honestly we're simply desperate.  

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1 hour ago, rafibomb said:
As for Bauer? Executives around the league believe that he is hoping to break Gerrit Cole’s record of $36 million in average annual value.

I call BS. No way Bauer thinks he is worth anything close to Cole. Cole is a proven better pitcher. Even if Bauer is that delusional, he won't get that kind of money.

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2 hours ago, rafibomb said:

As for Bauer? Executives around the league believe that he is hoping to break Gerrit Cole’s record of $36 million in average annual value. Please don’t tell Bauer I wrote that, as I’m not interested in a Twitter war. But it’s obviously very hard to see how the Mets find that amount of payroll now.

 

 

1 hour ago, beatlesrule said:

I call BS. No way Bauer thinks he is worth anything close to Cole. Cole is a proven better pitcher. Even if Bauer is that delusional, he won't get that kind of money.

I think Bauer is trying to capitalize on 2020 and 2018, hoping someone buys the upside. Narrow field of available arms gives him a shot at it. I could definitely see him wanting to stick it to Cole by beating his aav. While no one doubts Cole better, I think what you might be missing is that the reason he would even ask that much is 3-4 less years. Cole got that much over 9 years. No way Bauer gets more than 6 at that aav.

Having said that, I think - assuming it's true, and with multiple reports there is a good chance it is - I don't think the Angels can afford that, but I also don't think anyone else is likely to pay that. 

I predicted a month ago that he'd get somewhere like 5-6 years at roughly a 30m aav (150-180m total). I'm feeling increasingly bullish on that rough estimate. It might take a while for him to loosen his demands, and the Angels may well have moved on by then, but they're probably best positioned to sign him if they're patient. 

If he lowers to something like 4 years at a high aav, I could see the Dodgers potentially jumping in. That's the kind of deal Friedman likes, and while I'm unsure ownership has the stomach to add 36-40 on to what they're already spending after just winning the WS, that's more the kind of deal I could see them biting on. The Angels probably are out unless he gives in on aav as opposed to years. 

Either way, we probably should get another arm in the bank just to be safe, even if the front office decides to go all in on Bauer. But if they do go for Bauer, they probably would have to either trade for Musgrove or get a really inexpensive (think a 6 or worse) arm on the market. 

A Musgrove trade probably looks something like either Marsh or Adams plus a pitching prospect. If it's Marsh, you might see a lower value one - more of a lottery pick. Adams likely needs a CRod, Koch, or Detmers to make it go. Possibly they might go with Adams and another position player of higher value like Paris or thereabouts. With prospects, it really depends a lot how much each team values each guy. 

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38 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

 

I think Bauer is trying to capitalize on 2020 and 2018, hoping someone buys the upside. Narrow field of available arms gives him a shot at it. I could definitely see him wanting to stick it to Cole by beating his aav. While no one doubts Cole better, I think what you might be missing is that the reason he would even ask that much is 3-4 less years. Cole got that much over 9 years. No way Bauer gets more than 6 at that aav.

Having said that, I think - assuming it's true, and with multiple reports there is a good chance it is - I don't think the Angels can afford that, but I also don't think anyone else is likely to pay that. 

I predicted a month ago that he'd get somewhere like 5-6 years at roughly a 30m aav (150-180m total). I'm feeling increasingly bullish on that rough estimate. It might take a while for him to loosen his demands, and the Angels may well have moved on by then, but they're probably best positioned to sign him if they're patient. 

If he lowers to something like 4 years at a high aav, I could see the Dodgers potentially jumping in. That's the kind of deal Friedman likes, and while I'm unsure ownership has the stomach to add 36-40 on to what they're already spending after just winning the WS, that's more the kind of deal I could see them biting on. The Angels probably are out unless he gives in on aav as opposed to years. 

Either way, we probably should get another arm in the bank just to be safe, even if the front office decides to go all in on Bauer. But if they do go for Bauer, they probably would have to either trade for Musgrove or get a really inexpensive (think a 6 or worse) arm on the market. 

A Musgrove trade probably looks something like either Marsh or Adams plus a pitching prospect. If it's Marsh, you might see a lower value one - more of a lottery pick. Adams likely needs a CRod, Koch, or Detmers to make it go. Possibly they might go with Adams and another position player of higher value like Paris or thereabouts. With prospects, it really depends a lot how much each team values each guy. 

The BTV simulator has Gray and Musgrove rated similarly despite Gray’s better numbers he’s older and due more guaranteed money. So the ask will be about the same. Adam’s or Marsh and Sandoval or Barria will be the base plus different prospects from the bottom of the top 10 or useful quantity over quality. 

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