The Official 2020-2021 Hot Stove Offseason Thread

[mmc]

Sugano absolutely needs to be a priority for us this offseason.  If him and Bauer both sign elsewhere, our search for starting pitching will once again look pretty bleak.

[Angels in 2030]

[Second Base]

1 minute ago, Fourts said:

It's 2021. Angels fans have been used to it for more than a decade now. Particularly when it comes to starting pitching.

[Pancake Bear]

3 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I think this winter, all of you (and me) are going to have to just accept that it’s really unlikely to get a lot of accurate reports on what the Angels are doing before they do it. 
 

They have a new front office so they aren’t leaking. 
 

Based on what Minasian has said, I believe they are involved with all of the pitchers you’d guess. So we just have to wait to see which ones they get. 

Nope, I get it. Appreciate the response. Just wanted to confirm. 

[Second Base]

Would you rather this be an organization chalk full of front office league (ahem/Dipoto/ahem) or one that never showed it's hand? 

Frustrating as it is, I'd prefer the latter. 

[mmc]

 

[BTH]

6 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I think this winter, all of you (and me) are going to have to just accept that it’s really unlikely to get a lot of accurate reports on what the Angels are doing before they do it. 
 

They have a new front office so they aren’t leaking. 
 

Based on what Minasian has said, I believe they are involved with all of the pitchers you’d guess. So we just have to wait to see which ones they get. 

I agree that it's unlikely the Angels themselves will leak anything, but typically agents will leak things.

If the Angels were in on Sugano, I'd assume that Sugano's agent would leak that information because it only helps Sugano if it's known that the Angels are involved.

The fact that the Angels haven't been linked to Sugano publicly makes me believe that they aren't in on Sugano because there'd be no reason for Sugano's camp not to leak that information when it could possibly help Sugano get more money.

[Stradling]

13 minutes ago, Trendon said:

I agree that it's unlikely the Angels themselves will leak anything, but typically agents will leak things.

If the Angels were in on Sugano, I'd assume that Sugano's agent would leak that information because it only helps Sugano if it's known that the Angels are involved.

The fact that the Angels haven't been linked to Sugano publicly makes me believe that they aren't in on Sugano because there'd be no reason for Sugano's camp not to leak that information when it could possibly help Sugano get more money.

It doesn’t help Sugano if the Angels take their offer off the table if it’s leaked. 

[BTH]

3 minutes ago, Stradling said:

It doesn’t help Sugano if the Angels take their offer off the table if it’s leaked. 

Perhaps they could give that stipulation to Sugano's camp, but why wouldn't other teams also give that stipulation? 3-5 teams have already been leaked to have had interest in Sugano.

[Second Base]

I think "leaks" can be true or untrue, and can come from a number of parties. I highly doubt any of these offers come with silence stipulations.

Anyway, if the leak is true, it can come from the team, the agent, another team, a friend of the player, a friend if the agent....

Teams can only control their end of things, and generally speaking, it isn't in an agents best interest to have leaks.

If a leak is untrue, it probably comes from Jon Heyman, the virtue signaling turd bucket of a human being. He either adds one and one together and fills in the gaps on his own, or Scott Boras calls him and tells him to report something, to try and manipulate fan bases and the market in general.

At any rate, the sense that I get from the Minasian reports that I've read so far is that he's a man that operates in a realm of respect. The people he works at with, he respects and vice versa. If a leak comes internally, that's a betrayal and disrespect. That person probably won't remain employed for long. Whereas in the Dipoto regime, there were a ton of ambitious executives and analysts he hired. It was about climbing the ladder, that's it. There was no particular loyalty to the Angels or anyone else judging by the number of people that were willing to talk to anyone they knew.

As far as Sugano goes, I'm just going to guess that those leaks are either untrue, or they're coming from the teams and not Sugano's camp.

[tdawg87]

I had a leak at work today. Had to go home to change.

[rafibomb]

 

 

[Second Base]

Ok so this isn't necessarily insider information so I'm fine with giving it. I have a contact with an AL East team. I won't disclose his job, but this is his teams point of view...

- The bidding on Sugano hasn't been a bidding war, where there's fast turnaround and a sense of urgency or one upmanship. They have an asking price and have held firm on this. 

- This team believes Sugano is going to be a relatively nondescript mid rotation starter. Not someone that pushes a team over the competitive edge as much as someone that provides useful depth. 

- The asking price is reasonable for teams that are negotiating. They expect he will get 9-10 million a year across four years. 

- They don't know all the teams that are talking to Sugano, but they are operating with the belief that the Angels are one of the teams, as well as Giants. This doesn't change any teams plan, just an educated guess. 

- There was some concern regarding his work ethic and personality earlier in his career, butt those have since been squashed. They don't expect him to be anyone's best friend, but he won't make waves either. He isn't as private as Ohtani, but also isn't as involved with teammates in the clubhouse as Ohtani is. 

I don't know if this report gives you guys anything new. 

[T.G.]

Sugano...

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danschlossberg/2021/01/04/tomoyuki-sugano-star-pitcher-in-japan-to-decide-future-this-week/?sh=4aa71deb7706

 

[BTH]

6 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Ok so this isn't necessarily insider information so I'm fine with giving it. I have a contact with an AL East team. I won't disclose his job, but this is his teams point of view...

- They don't know all the teams that are talking to Sugano, but they are operating with the belief that the Angels are one of the teams, as well as Giants. This doesn't change any teams plan, just an educated guess. 

It makes sense that the contact (and that contact's MLB team) believes that the Angels are in on Sugano, as everyone knows that the Angels need pitching.

The question of whether the Angels are actually talking to Sugano remains. If you have no info to say the Angels are or aren't talking with him, you'd assume they are because of their desperate need for pitching.

[T.G.]

[Pancake Bear]

14 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Ok so this isn't necessarily insider information so I'm fine with giving it. I have a contact with an AL East team. I won't disclose his job, but this is his teams point of view...

- The bidding on Sugano hasn't been a bidding war, where there's fast turnaround and a sense of urgency or one upmanship. They have an asking price and have held firm on this. 

- This team believes Sugano is going to be a relatively nondescript mid rotation starter. Not someone that pushes a team over the competitive edge as much as someone that provides useful depth. 

- The asking price is reasonable for teams that are negotiating. They expect he will get 9-10 million a year across four years. 

- They don't know all the teams that are talking to Sugano, but they are operating with the belief that the Angels are one of the teams, as well as Giants. This doesn't change any teams plan, just an educated guess. 

- There was some concern regarding his work ethic and personality earlier in his career, butt those have since been squashed. They don't expect him to be anyone's best friend, but he won't make waves either. He isn't as private as Ohtani, but also isn't as involved with teammates in the clubhouse as Ohtani is. 

I don't know if this report gives you guys anything new. 

Price seems reasonable (though I assume that would push Angels out on Bauer, which could be good or bad, depending on how one looks at it). Would've been a surprise if the Angels weren't in at all, though I remain skeptical he signs with us. 

Word I saw was he's expected to make a decision tomorrow, leaving the last day or two to hammer out the contract. 

Hopefully that pushes the market forward.

[Erstad Grit]

31 minutes ago, rafibomb said:

 

 

So Jays sign Springer.  Mets sign bauer.  We then get stuck overpaying for leftovers

[Second Base]

4 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

So Jays sign Springer.  Mets sign bauer.  We then get stuck overpaying for leftovers

I mean, that's what I'm expecting. I don't want to sound like a downer, but recent history can't help but leave an Angels fan feeling a little jaded when it comes to the Angels and starting pitching. 

I expect it will be Odorizzi and Musgrove. 

Then the question becomes, "Are they enough?" And the answer to that question really has nothing to do with either of them. For example, if Ohtani is healthy and is an ace, and Bundy maintains the breakout, and Canning makes another developmental step forward into a #3 starter, then yes, they are absolutely enough. But if Ohtani is hurt, Bundy doesn't repeat, Heaney is HR prone and Canning never gets any better, then the answer is probably no. 

I want to see the Angels land pitchers good enough to where the answer is the "good enough" question no longer falls on existing options but in the proven elite free agent they acquire. But that probably isn't in the cards, so just like 2020, the answer to this pitching question, still falls on Bundy-Ohtani-Heaney-Canning more than the free agents. 

The only other alternative is an unforeseen jump from a farm option. Jaime Barria is a legit #3 starter, or Chris Rodriguez or Reid Detmers are ready sooner than expected and are everything we hoped for. 

I think realistically speaking, if it is Odorizzi and Musgrove, I think it would be enough. I think Ohtani will be good for 15-20 starts with ace-like production. Bundy still be good again, though not quite at 2020's level. Heaney will give them innings, Canning is going to make a HUGE jump as a #3, Musgrove will make a small developmental jump under Callaway and Odorizzi would be what he's been for most of his career, which is a solid #3 starter. And Barria, if not traded, spends time in the pen and take over later in the year when they rest Ohtani and is everything we think, which is a surprisingly decent 4th or 5th starter. 

I want Sugano and Bauer (well, really I wanted Sugano and Darvish), but I admit, I don't think it HAS to be them.

[jsnpritchett]

Please explain why anyone would expect Ohtani to be good for 15-20 starts with "ace-like" production.  I don't even think you can call his 11-start season of 2018 "ace-like" production, and he has shown zero ability to stay healthy in his 3 years in MLB.   If anyone that works for the Angels is actually planning on that level of production from Ohtani in 2021, they should be fired immediately.  Wishing/hoping/praying for it?  Sure, go right ahead.  But I'll believe it when I see it.

[Stradling]

56 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Please explain why anyone would expect Ohtani to be good for 15-20 starts with "ace-like" production.  I don't even think you can call his 11-start season of 2018 "ace-like" production, and he has shown zero ability to stay healthy in his 3 years in MLB.   If anyone that works for the Angels is actually planning on that level of production from Ohtani in 2021, they should be fired immediately.  Wishing/hoping/praying for it?  Sure, go right ahead.  But I'll believe it when I see it.

He was pretty damn close to an Ace in his rookie season.  

[jsnpritchett]

2 minutes ago, Stradling said:

He was pretty damn close to an Ace in his rookie season.  

That was 11 starts 3 years ago.  And really it was a handful of very good starts after a few mediocre/good starts.

Again, I sure hope he's that good!  But if you're in any way COUNTING on that while putting together a pitching staff for next season, that's just silly.

[angelsnationtalk]

2 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

Price seems reasonable (though I assume that would push Angels out on Bauer, which could be good or bad, depending on how one looks at it). Would've been a surprise if the Angels weren't in at all, though I remain skeptical he signs with us. 

Word I saw was he's expected to make a decision tomorrow, leaving the last day or two to hammer out the contract. 

Hopefully that pushes the market forward.

Might be true. Still hopeful on this next thought. 

If it's true that the price might be around $10M/yr for Sugano then Bauer could be affordable on a backloaded deal with Arte opening $ up a bit more. 

That thought will save prospect capital for possibly the deadline when we could use that extra piece to get whatever needs we may need.

I wonder if that'd be a selling point to allow Arte think about spending maybe around $40M more rather than $30M. 

[eligrba]

6 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

That was 11 starts 3 years ago.  And really it was a handful of very good starts after a few mediocre/good starts.

Again, I sure hope he's that good!  But if you're in any way COUNTING on that while putting together a pitching staff for next season, that's just silly.

[beatlesrule]

https://halohangout.com/2021/01/04/la-angels-david-fletcher-perfect-trade-winter/amp/

This guy thinks the angels should trade Fletcher and calls him average at everything. Then also states that he has a good WAR.