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The Official 2020-2021 Hot Stove Offseason Thread


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I think you meant to tag Arte Moreno. 

How I feel getting a post in before you

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ATX Halo
2:27
With all the 1 year deals on the Halos roster, are they just waiting till next year to be aggressive in free agency?
 
Steve Adams
2:28
I'm sure there's some of that at play, but modern GMs are just increasingly favoring shorter-term deals. And new Halos GM Perry Minasian worked alongside a GM who had strong preferences for such arrangements, Alex Anthopoulos, at multiple stops.
 
What is the luxury tax?
 
Steve Adams
3:00
It's a slap on the wrist for exceeding an arbitrary payroll threshold ($210MM worth of collective average annual salary on a roster in 2021).

First-time offenders pay 20% in overages for the first $20MM by which they exceed, plus another 12% for the next $20MM and a 42.5% for anything thereafter.

Second-time offenders pay 30 percent for that first tier. Third-timers pay 50 percent.

Exceeding by more than $40MM knocks your top pick back 10 spots in the draft.
 
3:01
All things considered, it's an extremely light penalty that owners like to use as leverage in talks with agents. That they've managed to sell so many fans on the notion that it's an actual deterrent is nuts to me. The Dodgers are going to pay like $7MM in overages after signing Bauer. For a team with pockets that deep ... big deal.
 
Halos homer
3:17
why would the Angels trade for Alex Cobb instead of just signing a guy like R.Porcello?  Im kinda confused by the trade.
 
Steve Adams
3:18
I emailed Tim Dierkes, Connor Byrne and Jeff Todd from MLBTR right after that trade asking basically the same thing. I don't understand it from any vantage point.
 
We all agreed, by the way. It seems bizarre. Obviously the Angels see something.
 
Chris
3:22
Any truth to the osuna to the angels rumors?
 
Steve Adams
3:23
From Jeff Fletcher (Orange County Register):

Jeff Fletcher
@JeffFletcherOCR
Replying to @JamesMelau9
Checked this out last night.

The response I got:  “No chance.”
 
3:24
I would trust Fletcher on that matter much more than the actual source of the rumor
 
Angels
3:24
Play keep or trade Adell or Marsh?
 
Steve Adams
3:25
Keep 'em both. Give them some run in AAA. Call one or both up and reduce Fowler's role midseason.
 
Rangers29
3:28
Tbh, Minisian has kind of disappointed me. I expected some good things to come right after the Iglesias and...Iglesias moves, but nothing really did. What are your thoughts on his off-season, and do you think we should think of him the same way we do prospects: They aren't busts just because they hit poorly in 20 MLB games.
 
Steve Adams
3:29
I wouldn't judge any first-year GM right now when so many are being limited by ownership. I'd imagine that once Pujols is off the books next year, he'll have some more latitude.
 
So he doesn't think the luxury tax is a big deal, him and his colleagues don't understand the Cobb trade, thinks the Angels should keep both OF and also thinks Arte is limiting what contracts Minasian can give out.
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26 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:
ATX Halo
2:27
With all the 1 year deals on the Halos roster, are they just waiting till next year to be aggressive in free agency?
 
Steve Adams
2:28
I'm sure there's some of that at play, but modern GMs are just increasingly favoring shorter-term deals. And new Halos GM Perry Minasian worked alongside a GM who had strong preferences for such arrangements, Alex Anthopoulos, at multiple stops.
 
What is the luxury tax?
 
Steve Adams
3:00
It's a slap on the wrist for exceeding an arbitrary payroll threshold ($210MM worth of collective average annual salary on a roster in 2021).

First-time offenders pay 20% in overages for the first $20MM by which they exceed, plus another 12% for the next $20MM and a 42.5% for anything thereafter.

Second-time offenders pay 30 percent for that first tier. Third-timers pay 50 percent.

Exceeding by more than $40MM knocks your top pick back 10 spots in the draft.
 
3:01
All things considered, it's an extremely light penalty that owners like to use as leverage in talks with agents. That they've managed to sell so many fans on the notion that it's an actual deterrent is nuts to me. The Dodgers are going to pay like $7MM in overages after signing Bauer. For a team with pockets that deep ... big deal.
 
Halos homer
3:17
why would the Angels trade for Alex Cobb instead of just signing a guy like R.Porcello?  Im kinda confused by the trade.
 
Steve Adams
3:18
I emailed Tim Dierkes, Connor Byrne and Jeff Todd from MLBTR right after that trade asking basically the same thing. I don't understand it from any vantage point.
 
We all agreed, by the way. It seems bizarre. Obviously the Angels see something.
 
Chris
3:22
Any truth to the osuna to the angels rumors?
 
Steve Adams
3:23
From Jeff Fletcher (Orange County Register):

Jeff Fletcher
@JeffFletcherOCR
Replying to @JamesMelau9
Checked this out last night.

The response I got:  “No chance.”
 
3:24
I would trust Fletcher on that matter much more than the actual source of the rumor
 
Angels
3:24
Play keep or trade Adell or Marsh?
 
Steve Adams
3:25
Keep 'em both. Give them some run in AAA. Call one or both up and reduce Fowler's role midseason.
 
Rangers29
3:28
Tbh, Minisian has kind of disappointed me. I expected some good things to come right after the Iglesias and...Iglesias moves, but nothing really did. What are your thoughts on his off-season, and do you think we should think of him the same way we do prospects: They aren't busts just because they hit poorly in 20 MLB games.
 
Steve Adams
3:29
I wouldn't judge any first-year GM right now when so many are being limited by ownership. I'd imagine that once Pujols is off the books next year, he'll have some more latitude.
 
So he doesn't think the luxury tax is a big deal, him and his colleagues don't understand the Cobb trade, thinks the Angels should keep both OF and also thinks Arte is limiting what contracts Minasian can give out.

I mean, is MLBTR really known for their insightful analysis? Don't they mainly just trade in centralizing news and rumors from legit sources on trades/signings? Not sure why we should care what anyone there thinks - is there some reason anyone's opinion on their should carry much more weight than anybody on here?

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3 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

I mean, is MLBTR really known for their insightful analysis? Don't they mainly just trade in centralizing news and rumors from legit sources on trades/signings? Not sure why we should care what anyone there thinks - is there some reason anyone's opinion on their should carry much more weight than anybody on here?

They did predict Bauer to the Dodgers and were off by 1yr and $2M AAV on final contract. 

Those damn predictions....

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53 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

They did predict Bauer to the Dodgers and were off by 1yr and $2M AAV on final contract. 

Those damn predictions....

Considering the third year (essentially an option year) is a contract ploy to lower the AAV, nah, their guess is only close in a superficial sense. 

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With about 1 week left before most teams report to camp, there's still quite a few quality free agents available on the market.

With the majority of teams effectively fairly close to done, it means that any teams who are still willing to spend can probably get some decent value.

Minasian has done a good job of filling holes fairly well without breaking the bank.  I wonder if he'll take one more shot, at a SP or RP, with what he has left, as FAs look to find a team to play for.  There's still Paxton, Odorizzi, Hamels, Walker, Porcello, Rosenthal, etc..

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2 hours ago, Warfarin said:

With about 1 week left before most teams report to camp, there's still quite a few quality free agents available on the market.

With the majority of teams effectively fairly close to done, it means that any teams who are still willing to spend can probably get some decent value.

Minasian has done a good job of filling holes fairly well without breaking the bank.  I wonder if he'll take one more shot, at a SP or RP, with what he has left, as FAs look to find a team to play for.  There's still Paxton, Odorizzi, Hamels, Walker, Porcello, Rosenthal, etc..

I'd nut if we got Paxton or Rosenthal. Or both. Fuck it.

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6 hours ago, Warfarin said:

With about 1 week left before most teams report to camp, there's still quite a few quality free agents available on the market.

With the majority of teams effectively fairly close to done, it means that any teams who are still willing to spend can probably get some decent value.

Minasian has done a good job of filling holes fairly well without breaking the bank.  I wonder if he'll take one more shot, at a SP or RP, with what he has left, as FAs look to find a team to play for.  There's still Paxton, Odorizzi, Hamels, Walker, Porcello, Rosenthal, etc..

Batters that have signed late have typically struggled to secure the contracts they're looking for, but pitchers that have signed late don't appear to suffer the same financial fate. I'm guessing with hitters, teams are wary of a lack of rhythm at the plate which is definitely a big factor. Whereas pitchers, I'd say are more viewed like a fresh arm with experience. 

So it wouldn't surprise me to see some of these guys coming off injury like Hamels and Paxton wait until May or June to sign. The rest, particularly Odorizzi and Rosenthal, I expect will sign this week. I wouldn't expect any starters, but they might have an outside shot at a reliever. 

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