The Official 2020-2021 Hot Stove Offseason Thread

[Vlad27Trout27]

Two options, which would you slect. 

For Darvish.

Cubs eating about 20 mil

Angels: Darvish: 39 mil for 3 years

Cubs: Adams, Soriano and Stallings 

I kind of tried to make this trade off of the Verlander trade. Verlander trade had one top 100 prospects going back to the Tigers with a few wildcards. A few things to keep in mind, i might be wrong. But in that Trade, teh Tigers ate a really good amount of money, plus Verlander was coming off a 5 war season, and the year he was traded in put up a 4 war season with both teams. So similary, Darvish is coming from a cy young like season. Buts Darvish prevous twos eason, he was just ok and he's been imjured Prone.

For Snell;

Angels: Snell

Ray: Adell, Soraino, Stalling and Holmes

or Adell, Koch, Stalling  

[T.G.]

Let's go fishing Perry!!

[Warfarin]

Snell come with 3 years of control, but they aren't exactly cheap years, as he's due 39million over that time.  He's certainly underpaid, but he would assuredly NOT cost both Adell and Marsh for these reasons.  He's likely "worth" Adell + a lower tier prospect, or Marsh + upper tier prospect.

This is not meant to say Snell isn't a great pitcher, because he is, but rather it's just the reality of things.  Snell on a 3/39 (what he has remaining) holds value, but it's not the same value as if he were in his pre-arbitration years or came with 5 years of control.

I don't see Minasian trading for Snell and emptying the farm system.  He (and Tamin) come from systems that built up strong farm systems prior to making moves.  I only see Adell, etc being shipped in a deal for young talent, i.e., a "prospects for prospects" kind of trade.

[Vlad27Trout27]

Alright i actually red the stupid article. It seem like the Rays aren't really looking to trade Snell, unless a team out a certain offer ( Over payered) than they may consider it, 

 

so yeah..... 

[SoWhat]

20 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Marsh is a top 50 prospect.  I don’t think it will take a top 10 and another top 50 to get 3 years of Snell, but I could be wrong.

I could be wrong, also. If Snell wasn’t under control for 3 years and making peanuts then id probably agree with the packages some have listed, but that isn’t the case. I think Tampa will definitely be looking to extract more from a team for that reason plus more.

[Pancake Bear]

I think this is the "Snell is *available*" offseason. Not the "We're moving him for sure this offseason". Basically, unless they get a haul (Adell by himself probably won't be enough for Tampa, imo), I doubt they move him. I think they're hoping for an overpay and some team desperate enough for pitching.

[zenmaster]

Never, ever trade with the Rays. They know things.

[Erstad Grit]

1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

Snell come with 3 years of control, but they aren't exactly cheap years, as he's due 39million over that time.  He's certainly underpaid, but he would assuredly NOT cost both Adell and Marsh for these reasons.  He's likely "worth" Adell + a lower tier prospect, or Marsh + upper tier prospect.

This is not meant to say Snell isn't a great pitcher, because he is, but rather it's just the reality of things.  Snell on a 3/39 (what he has remaining) holds value, but it's not the same value as if he were in his pre-arbitration years or came with 5 years of control.

I don't see Minasian trading for Snell and emptying the farm system.  He (and Tamin) come from systems that built up strong farm systems prior to making moves.  I only see Adell, etc being shipped in a deal for young talent, i.e., a "prospects for prospects" kind of trade.

I disagree. 3/39 is cheap for a cy young type SP. I mean Smyly just got 11 million. 

A pitcher like Snell could fetch a nice return on his walk season at the deadline. Think about what we gave up for Greinke. 

I would trade Adell and some lower prospects for Snell. 

 

 

[Docwaukee]

First off, the Rays don't have to trade him so they're not gonna come out and say 'we're trading Snell'  

The Rays are savvy but they also have money issues.  They really only have two guys they can off load to help with that.  Snell and Kiermaier.  

I think they're gonna have a tough time trying to offload Kiermaier and the almost 2/26 he's owed for his age 32 and 33 yo seasons.  He's a defensive whiz, but I don't see another team paying that much for pure defense because the dude just can't hit anymore.  So they probably have been shopping him and realized they don't have any takers.  

Snell is the only other guy on that team making more than 5 mil per.  So now they are gonna shop him.  

Snell is a top of the rotation arm with three years of control at a reasonable price.  He hasn't gotten deep into games the last couple of years so it does make me wonder why they are babying him unless the Rays are really playing off of the whole 'third time through the order' thing.  

Personally, I think Snell for Jo Adell straight up or maybe with a sweetener is fair and if that could get it done, I would do it.  

The Rays would have to really really really put a high value on Adell though and think he's ready because they're still a team trying to make the playoffs.  That could be a tough sell.  

Also, if I were the Rays, I would want one of Detmers, Rodriguez or Kochanowicz.  I wouldn't do that trade if one of them had to be included.  I would consider Sandoval or Barria but I'm not sure that gets it done.  

How about Adell, Soriano or Yan, and two low level guys?  Like Aquino, Hernandez or Holmes and one of Soto, Deveaux, or Knowles?  

[ukyah]

2 hours ago, SoWhat said:

IMO, he will. Snell is a front line starter on an extremely club friendly deal. The market for top of the rotation arms is razor thin and the Angels will have to put together a package to compete with teams that have top farm systems like ATL and SEA. Marsh isn’t a blue chip prospect like Adell, we really gotta stop overrating our own prospects. 

 

 

is anybody really overrating marsh? is he not a blue chip prospect? he's 35 in the top 50 mlb prospects. maybe you have a stricter definition than myself, which is possible.

i agree with everything else you said about snell and this market. i wouldn't trade adell and marsh.

[Pancake Bear]

Sonny Gray may be available, apparently.

[angelsnationtalk]

33 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Sonny Gray may be available, apparently.

Reds are looking for infielders and relievers in return so this could be problematic for the Angels. 

[Taylor]

2 hours ago, T.G. said:

Let's go fishing Perry!!

Which is the best to hook a clean peanut?

[Taylor]

3 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Reds are looking for infields and relievers in return so this could be problematic for the Angels. 

I read that as the Reds are looking for infidels.

[Docwaukee]

25 minutes ago, Taylor said:

I read that as the Reds are looking for infidels.

of course you did.  

[Docwaukee]

28 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Reds are looking for infields and relievers in return so this could be problematic for the Angels. 

they can have Thaiss.  

[angelsnationtalk]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

they can have Thaiss.  

nah.... Give them Pujols instead....

[wopphil]

Snell’s peripherals have declined two consecutive years and he is injury prone. I’d love to have him on the team, but this isn’t the 2018 version. Don’t overpay. 

[angelsnationtalk]

Here's an interesting proposal. Of course values are different, but the Angels would get Snell, Gallo and Fairbanks for giving up Marsh and Adell. 

I'd look at it as a player swap between Adell/Gallo with Gallo being a proven power bat with an incredible arm in the outfield. (obviously player control is an issue).

This would only add around $17M for these three guys and they'd be under control for a few years. 

As Jeff Fletcher once said, it's pretty easy to replace outfield positions every year so this could play well for the Angels. 

[T.G.]

The 180 some of you have taken on Adell is funny.  No, actually it’s predictable and so AW like.

[Vlad27Trout27]

its mind blowing that people actually think Gallo is good and actually worth something.

 

 

Dudes has a career Average of 208..... .208. All that's worth Is a DFA.

[Richbert88]

I hear that this may be Snell driven due to the way they managed him, including quick pulls this last post season.

This certainly deserves it's own thread.

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, T.G. said:

The 180 some of you have taken on Adell is funny.  No, actually it’s predictable and so AW like.

I think a lot of people, myself included, have realized that Adell is a prospect.  For the last couple years I wrongly had it in my head that he was going to be this sure fire elite player which isn't fair really.  Like a Fernando Tatis Jr or a Ron Acuna jr.  or some other jr.  (had to throw that in).  

He might be at some point but his brief stint in the majors this year makes me think that point is further off in the distance that I originally realized.  

So for me, it reset my expectations of him from some 'can't miss' guy back to just a really really good prospect.  Which is what he's always been

There's a difference between doing a 180 on someone vs. tempering expectations from being untouchable.  So now he becomes the most valuable piece in this org to help the team get where they need to be whether that's eventually on the field with the halos or with someone else.  

An unwillingness to trade him and thinking we can get a controlled top of the rotation starter without his inclusion is way more AW like than being realistic about the fact that it will likely take him and others to get that front line pitcher.  

So in some ways, we're actually growing.  

[totdprods]

2 hours ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

its mind blowing that people actually think Gallo is good and actually worth something.

 

 

Dudes has a career Average of 208..... .208. All that's worth Is a DFA.

Measuring Joey Gallo’s value by looking only at his batting average is like measuring Shohei Ohtani’s value by the number of innings he has pitched. It tells way too small a story. 

1) Gallo is still really pretty young. He’ll only be 27 next year, same age as Fletcher. He was a very flawed player with a lot of holes when he first came up and his stats are weighted because of that.

2) He’s very good defensively, with pretty solid speed for a big guy, an amazing arm, and enough versatility to cover every outfield position and both infield corners.

3) Yes, he strikes out a lot, yes, his batting average is usually pretty bad. His walk rate is almost double the league average and slots in around that of Rendon and Trout. That doesn’t erase his flaws, but it softens their effect. And his power is legitimate. 

I don’t even think one could expect him to hit .250 on a regular basis - remember the league average is around .240 of late - but between his versatility, defense, walk rate, and power, he’s still probably a fairly safe bet for 3 WAR and a .220/.330/.530/.860 type guy for the next few seasons. If he was 30, I’d be much less optimistic. But by all accounts there was speculation he was so flawed he’d never make it in the majors and he’s worked his tail off to become a pretty valuable guy. At his age, I think he’d be a fantastic complimentary piece to look at acquiring. 

[Docwaukee]

BTW, Tampa Bay is really fricking smart.  

There's probably a good reasons why they've treated Blake Snell with kid gloves the last couple of years.  One of which has already partially shown itself in the form of him not being able to stay completely healthy. 

Here's the market they see.  

A fairly weak free agent class where even the best pitcher available is likely to cost around 25-30 mil per season in the midst of revenues being crushed by COVID.  And after him, there is a severe drop in the talent pool.  

On top of that, the playoff pool has expanded meaning that any team who thinks they could have a .500 or better record is now a potential post season team.  Which also means that those additional 8 teams are now out of the trade away pool and have become part of the trade for pool.  And in the 'trade away' pool you've got who?  2 years of Joe Musgrove?  1 year of Lance Lynn?  Nate Eovaldi?  Who else?  

So the Rays, who probably need the money, can float the idea of an 'ace' being available even though he really isn't and hope for a king's ransom.  Someone is going to overvalue Blake Snell.  Or maybe not.  Maybe he's that good but Tampa has been pretty damn good at knowing when to move on from a guy and when to keep him.  

They might even already know who and what they want for him.  Maybe they really like Adell.  Maybe it's some other team's top prospect so they float his name out there to garner additional suitors to create a bidding war or to see if it will land them the guy they want plus plus.  

It also could be that the small market teams are looking to off load some cash obligation but there really couldn't be a better time to make a potentially top flight pitcher available.  

Making Sonny Gray available is pretty savvy as well.  I could see that being more financial for the Reds though as they've actually got almost 130m on the books for 2020.  

We've talked about taking advantage of a depressed market with financial resources, but there are other ways to take advantage of a market.  

Other names that we might hear on the block.  Carlos Carrasco for sure although I think CLE is gonna have to give him away if they don't want to afford him.  Wouldn't surprise me if JD is somehow able to off load Kikuchi.  Darvish and maybe even Kyle Hendricks depending on how much wrath the cubs are willing to endure.  There's a few others in that 10-12 mil per range.  

Spending could be an obvious way to take advantage of the market but so could off loading the back of a still productive pitcher who's on the wrong side of 30.