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The Official 2020-2021 Hot Stove Offseason Thread


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I think you meant to tag Arte Moreno. 

How I feel getting a post in before you

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27 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Rosenthal not mentioning the Angels being in on Bauer is not significant. If he'd said they were previously but aren't now, that would be. If he said Bauer is out of their price range, that would be notable. Absence of mentions simply means he has no info on them.

Maria Torres saying keep expectations low is not significant. If she was actually reporting that the Angels are definitively out, she would have said so. She didn't. No one else has. 

Bauer's relationships with the Angels strength and conditioning coach and with Callaway are not significant. If his beef with Callaway was a serious issue, that would have been clear previously.

None of that is to say that the Angels are absolutely pursuing Bauer. They may be. They may not be. Nobody has reported anything definitive about them. Virtually everything reported has been speculation. 

Bauer's social media profile and brand building could be significant. E.g. Arte may not like how Bauer handles himself off the field. 

Arte never having spent as much as he would if we do sign Bauer could be significant. It isn't prohibitive, but past history should always be considered. 

Tl;dr: We know virtually nothing. There have been basically no leaks. We know the Angels have a need on the field that Bauer fits. We know the Angels don't typically spend that much and that may take them out of the running. We know they may not like how he conducts himself off the field (or, heck, even on it). But we know nothing for sure. It's all speculation.

you could have just said, "fingers crossed"

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2 hours ago, Warfarin said:

While we are focused on Bauer, consider 2016-2019 in terms of fWAR:

Bauer:  2.6, 2.8, 5.3, 3.3

Paxton:  3.6, 4.4, 3.7, 3.5.

If we don't sign Bauer, Paxton might certainly be worth some consideration.

I dug deeper into Paxton's stats and data today and had the same thoughts. However, I'm significantly concerned about his velocity dip in 2020. 1. It's an indication he may not be fully healthy and 2. I think he needs that velocity in order to be as good as he has been in the past.

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Now that they've lowered the wall in RF, it's beneficial to bring in starters that can supress left handed power hitters. There's no guaranteed way of necessarily doing that, but getting a left handed starter like Quintana seems to be a logical fit. 

As for who they bring in, I'm not sure there's much out there in terms of left handedness. My guess is, since Quintana was a one year deal, and Minasian is openly pursuing pitchers that will require multi-year deals, Quintana is viewed more as the second starter. 

I'm honestly not sure who is even on the trade market anymore, with every starter being traded to the Padres, and the NL Central being a collection of mediocrity, causing the Reds to now hold onto Gray and Castillo in an attempt compete. 

The Red Sox are in active discussions with Richards, Odorizzi is seeking a three year deal, and Tanaka wants 15 million a year, which is probably the ceiling of the Angels spending capacity. 

All three have enough upside to really help. Odorizzi and Tanaka are the closest in capacity to highly successful seasons, and Richards has the best stuff. None are experiencing significant diminishment in stuff. Odorizzi's stuff has actually improved in the last couple years back to where he was when he first came up with Tampa Bay. 

Just a shot in dark, but my guess is it'll be Tanaka. He'll be closer to Japan, stepping into an organization with a strong Japanese presence, is coming off a solid performance in 2020 and has pitched on the big stage before. Two years, 25 million.

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23 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Now that they've lowered the wall in RF, it's beneficial to bring in starters that can supress left handed power hitters. There's no guaranteed way of necessarily doing that, but getting a left handed starter like Quintana seems to be a logical fit. 

As for who they bring in, I'm not sure there's much out there in terms of left handedness. My guess is, since Quintana was a one year deal, and Minasian is openly pursuing pitchers that will require multi-year deals, Quintana is viewed more as the second starter. 

I'm honestly not sure who is even on the trade market anymore, with every starter being traded to the Padres, and the NL Central being a collection of mediocrity, causing the Reds to now hold onto Gray and Castillo in an attempt compete. 

The Red Sox are in active discussions with Richards, Odorizzi is seeking a three year deal, and Tanaka wants 15 million a year, which is probably the ceiling of the Angels spending capacity. 

All three have enough upside to really help. Odorizzi and Tanaka are the closest in capacity to highly successful seasons, and Richards has the best stuff. None are experiencing significant diminishment in stuff. Odorizzi's stuff has actually improved in the last couple years back to where he was when he first came up with Tampa Bay. 

Just a shot in dark, but my guess is it'll be Tanaka. He'll be closer to Japan, stepping into an organization with a strong Japanese presence, is coming off a solid performance in 2020 and has pitched on the big stage before. Two years, 25 million.

Scenario.... Let's say Tanaka signs back with the Yankees and Odorizzi goes back to the Twins or elsewhere like the Mets. Let's also say Richards goes to Boston. 

Bauer is still a free agent and the Angels are still looking. Does it become more of panic for the Angels to get it done. 

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7 hours ago, Trendon said:

I dug deeper into Paxton's stats and data today and had the same thoughts. However, I'm significantly concerned about his velocity dip in 2020. 1. It's an indication he may not be fully healthy and 2. I think he needs that velocity in order to be as good as he has been in the past.

Yeah, I should say with the caveat that the FO feels he is healthy enough to contribute and pitch a good amount this season.  Obviously I am not qualified to make that kind of judgment, but rather I was suggesting if they felt he was, then considering he will probably end up signing a 1-year "prove-it" type deal, it would seem that he might be a pretty decent gamble, given he had a very good track record of performance when he pitches.

I do get @Inside Pitch's response to my suggestion and I agree - we need healthy pitchers, guys who we can count on to make a good amount of starts.

If we had a bit more minor league depth, I'd be even more inclined to pursue someone like Paxton.  The rationale is, if we had, say, Bundy, Paxton, Heaney, Quintana, Canning, Barria, Ohtani .. that's 7 starters, and yeah, likely at least one of them will be hurt throughout the year, given their track records, which means that it wouldn't be too hard to juggle them and accommodate those SPs.  But the problem lies in the fact that what if multiple are hurt at once?  You can reasonably rely on Bundy and Quintana to make most of their starts, given their track records, but everyone else is a bit of a question mark - Heaney gets hurt quite a bit, Paxton obviously does, Canning has that concerning elbow issue, and we all know about Ohtani.  Barria I believe has been relatively healthy, but he's probably more of a SP5 type than anything else.  If we had some promising minor leaguers in AAA ready to step in, we could absorb that risk better, but we just simply aren't in that position currently.

So, I do get the aversion to Paxton, and I agree we likely just need to find someone who can come in and make most of their starts and be somewhere between average to above average.  Not exciting, but given that we should field a top offense and have a fairly strong defense behind it, perhaps that is all we really need - to avoid the Dillon Peters of the world.

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4 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Yeah, I should say with the caveat that the FO feels he is healthy enough to contribute and pitch a good amount this season.  Obviously I am not qualified to make that kind of judgment, but rather I was suggesting if they felt he was, then considering he will probably end up signing a 1-year "prove-it" type deal, it would seem that he might be a pretty decent gamble, given he had a very good track record of performance when he pitches.

I do get @Inside Pitch's response to my suggestion and I agree - we need healthy pitchers, guys who we can count on to make a good amount of starts.

If we had a bit more minor league depth, I'd be even more inclined to pursue someone like Paxton.  The rationale is, if we had, say, Bundy, Paxton, Heaney, Quintana, Canning, Barria, Ohtani .. that's 7 starters, and yeah, likely at least one of them will be hurt throughout the year, given their track records, which means that it wouldn't be too hard to juggle them and accommodate those SPs.  But the problem lies in the fact that what if multiple are hurt at once?  You can reasonably rely on Bundy and Quintana to make most of their starts, given their track records, but everyone else is a bit of a question mark - Heaney gets hurt quite a bit, Paxton obviously does, Canning has that concerning elbow issue, and we all know about Ohtani.  Barria I believe has been relatively healthy, but he's probably more of a SP5 type than anything else.  If we had some promising minor leaguers in AAA ready to step in, we could absorb that risk better, but we just simply aren't in that position currently.

So, I do get the aversion to Paxton, and I agree we likely just need to find someone who can come in and make most of their starts and be somewhere between average to above average.  Not exciting, but given that we should field a top offense and have a fairly strong defense behind it, perhaps that is all we really need - to avoid the Dillon Peters of the world.

In my opinion, we actually have solid minor league depth.

We have Sandoval and Suarez. Sandoval looked horrible this past year but I think he's a possible #4 guy. Suarez can possibly be a swing man, maybe better. Both guys have options for 2021 so they can start in AAA if need be.

Detmers is not far away. He'll be a depth piece as soon as this year, and probably in the rotation in 2022. If Chris Rodriguez is healthy he's going to move just as quickly. 

Dillon Peters is like, 10th on the depth chart. And that's without adding another starter, which I believe we will. I think Detmers would get innings over him, should it come to that.

I guess the one "problem" is Barria. If we add another pitcher he gets pushed to 6th starter, and he has no options. It's a good problem to have, but I think Barria deserves a look for a rotation spot. He's earned that much.

Could be a solid trade piece for a reliever though...

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8 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

In my opinion, we actually have solid minor league depth.

We have Sandoval and Suarez. Sandoval looked horrible this past year but I think he's a possible #4 guy. Suarez can possibly be a swing man, maybe better. Both guys have options for 2021 so they can start in AAA if need be.

Detmers is not far away. He'll be a depth piece as soon as this year, and probably in the rotation in 2022. If Chris Rodriguez is healthy he's going to move just as quickly. 

Dillon Peters is like, 10th on the depth chart. And that's without adding another starter, which I believe we will. I think Detmers would get innings over him, should it come to that.

I guess the one "problem" is Barria. If we add another pitcher he gets pushed to 6th starter, and he has no options. It's a good problem to have, but I think Barria deserves a look for a rotation spot. He's earned that much.

Could be a solid trade piece for a reliever though...

Those are fair points, and I agree about Detmers and CRod, although I don't see either as SP options for 2021.  I think Minasian will want them to take their time and develop them properly, as opposed to rushing them through the minors.  I know Detmers was considered the most advanced SP prospect in this year's draft, and he likely won't need too much time, but I think the earliest he'd be an option would be at the very end of 2021.

I think Sandoval will be a solid SP option in terms of depth.  I hope Suarez will be too, but he was truly awful last year in the few appearances he had, so it is a bit hard for me to count on him to deliver at the moment.  Still, if we did sign Paxton, and our SP depth is Bundy, Paxton, Heaney, Quintana, Canning, Barria, Ohtani, Sandoval, Suarez .. then I agree that's not too bad, as that's 9 SPs.  The key part though is the hope that Barria can mainly pitch like he did last year, that Sandoval can live up to his potential, and that Suarez's 2020 was just a fluke (which is certainly entirely possible).

We'll see.  Signing Quintana and Paxton would mix durability with upside, I suppose, without committing 100mil + to future budgets.

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10 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Those are fair points, and I agree about Detmers and CRod, although I don't see either as SP options for 2021.  I think Minasian will want them to take their time and develop them properly, as opposed to rushing them through the minors.  I know Detmers was considered the most advanced SP prospect in this year's draft, and he likely won't need too much time, but I think the earliest he'd be an option would be at the very end of 2021.

I think Sandoval will be a solid SP option in terms of depth.  I hope Suarez will be too, but he was truly awful last year in the few appearances he had, so it is a bit hard for me to count on him to deliver at the moment.  Still, if we did sign Paxton, and our SP depth is Bundy, Paxton, Heaney, Quintana, Canning, Barria, Ohtani, Sandoval, Suarez .. then I agree that's not too bad, as that's 9 SPs.  The key part though is the hope that Barria can mainly pitch like he did last year, that Sandoval can live up to his potential, and that Suarez's 2020 was just a fluke (which is certainly entirely possible).

We'll see.  Signing Quintana and Paxton would mix durability with upside, I suppose, without committing 100mil + to future budgets.

All good points, as usual.

To me, I just think we need durability over upside. I mean I want Bauer, or Gray, or Marquez or whomever. But if we can't get that, taking a flyer seems like a bad idea, in my opinion. I mean we're technically taking a flyer on Quintana, but he's much more of a sure thing to give us 32 starts.

Odorizzi has been very consistent with innings, but his peripherals scare the shit out of me. Like Teheran scary. His FIP has been terrible since 2016. His velocity seems fine but ugh, I don't want to commit 3 years to him.

Bauer is really the only remaining FA starting pitcher that gives both upside and durability. Although I haven't checked up on many of the other guys.

I think we're gonna make a trade. Probably for someone we haven't considered. If the Reds are indeed trying to compete then Gray is off the board.

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55 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

All good points, as usual.

To me, I just think we need durability over upside. I mean I want Bauer, or Gray, or Marquez or whomever. But if we can't get that, taking a flyer seems like a bad idea, in my opinion. I mean we're technically taking a flyer on Quintana, but he's much more of a sure thing to give us 32 starts.

Odorizzi has been very consistent with innings, but his peripherals scare the shit out of me. Like Teheran scary. His FIP has been terrible since 2016. His velocity seems fine but ugh, I don't want to commit 3 years to him.

Bauer is really the only remaining FA starting pitcher that gives both upside and durability. Although I haven't checked up on many of the other guys.

I think we're gonna make a trade. Probably for someone we haven't considered. If the Reds are indeed trying to compete then Gray is off the board.

Right, I agree.  Odorizzi seems like he'd be fine, but I agree on the peripherals concern.  Personally, if I had to pick between a 3 year deal for Odorizzi, or a 1 year "prove it" type deal for Paxton, I'd roll with the latter.  Sure, there is significant risk, but if he doesn't pan out, then he's gone after a year.

I know a lot of people liken it to what Eppler did and are concerned about that, but to that I'll say we have to put faith in our new GM to find the right players to gamble on.  A number of players do pan out on one year deals (such as Ozuna with ATL last year), because they do have extra incentive to perform as good as possible so that they can get a bigger contract as they re-enter free agency the year thereafter.  Paxton's track record is certainly a lot more promising than Harvey's, Cahill's, and Teheran's, for example.

That said, I am merely floating Paxton as a suggestion of a high-upside option.  If we signed him, I would trust that Minasian did his due diligence and felt he can maintain fairly good health (and velocity) for much of the year.  Perhaps Minasian has already done his due diligence and feels Paxton's health is not worth the risk and has already passed on him.  Realistically, given his track record, we could probably hope/expect 130 IP or so, give or take.  I know most people want a 200 IP SP, but coming off a 60-game season, I think there will be very few pitchers who throw more than 150 IP in general - thus, the more arms we have, the better.

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I think Minasian stands to benefit by being patient. There is a lot of talent still out there, and seemingly very few teams willing to spend. There will be some huge bargains eventually. It wouldn’t be the end of the world to spread the money out and take advantage of those bargains. 

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11 hours ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

shut up! You ain't making sense (too the guy that talking about an 11era)

Quintana

170 innings, 12-9, 4.21 era 3.97 fip, around 2.6-3 war. bet on it.

 

Not shut up and talk about something worth talking! 

 

 

 

 

Well said?

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