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The Official 2020-2021 Hot Stove Offseason Thread


rafibomb

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Projected Depth Charts fWAR 2021

  • Bauer - 4.2
  • Paxton - 2.7
  • Tanaka - 2.7
  • Richards - 2.1
  • Porcello - 2.1
  • Archer - 2.1
  • Odorizzi - 2.0

 

SP fWAR rank 2018

  • Bauer - 5.7, 7th
  • Paxton - 3.7, 21st
  • Tanaka - 2.4, 45th
  • Richards - 1.0, 113th
  • Porcello - 2.4, 43rd
  • Archer - 2.5, 37th
  • Odorizzi - 2.5, 38th

 

SP fWAR rank 2019

  • Bauer - 3.3, 35th
  • Paxton - 3.5, 29th
  • Tanaka - 3.2, 39th
  • Richards - 0.0, 264th
  • Porcello - 1.8, 78th
  • Archer - 0.7, 144th
  • Odorizzi - 4.3, 20th

 

SP fWAR rank 2020

  • Bauer - 2.5, 4th
  • Paxton - 0.3, 120th
  • Tanaka - 0.8, 67th
  • Richards - 0.7, 75th
  • Porcello - 1.7, 24th
  • Archer - NA
  • Odorizzi - 0.0, 217th

 

SP fWAR rank 2018-2020

  • Bauer - 11.5, 7th
  • Paxton - 7.5, 29th
  • Tanaka - 6.5, 36th
  • Richards - 1.7, 141st
  • Porcello - 5.9, 40th
  • Archer - 3.2, 91st
  • Odorizzi - 6.8, 32nd

 

SP fWAR rank 2019-2020

  • Bauer - 5.8, 16th
  • Paxton - 3.8, 39th
  • Tanaka - 4.0, 37th
  • Richards - 0.7, 161st
  • Porcello - 3.5, 46th
  • Archer - 0.7, 162nd
  • Odorizzi - 4.2, 36th

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13 minutes ago, Second Base said:

The way I perceived that is, the Angels have spoken hard numbers with a number of none Bauer free agent starting pitchers. Lower expectations because it isn't going to be Trevor Bauer. But it very likely will be either Odorizzi, Tanaka or Richards. 

That would be incredibly unwise on their part. They'd have to replace four pitchers on their staff in a shallow market next offseason. 

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12 minutes ago, Jinzu said:

 

 

 

Projected Depth Charts fWAR 2021

  • Bauer - 4.2
  • Paxton - 2.7
  • Tanaka - 2.7
  • Richards - 2.1
  • Porcello - 2.1
  • Archer - 2.1
  • Odorizzi - 2.0

 

SP fWAR rank 2018

  • Bauer - 5.7, 7th
  • Paxton - 3.7, 21st
  • Tanaka - 2.4, 45th
  • Richards - 1.0, 113th
  • Porcello - 2.4, 43rd
  • Archer - 2.5, 37th
  • Odorizzi - 2.5, 38th

 

SP fWAR rank 2019

  • Bauer - 3.3, 35th
  • Paxton - 3.5, 29th
  • Tanaka - 3.2, 39th
  • Richards - 0.0, 264th
  • Porcello - 1.8, 78th
  • Archer - 0.7, 144th
  • Odorizzi - 4.3, 20th

 

SP fWAR rank 2020

  • Bauer - 2.5, 4th
  • Paxton - 0.3, 120th
  • Tanaka - 0.8, 67th
  • Richards - 0.7, 75th
  • Porcello - 1.7, 24th
  • Archer - NA
  • Odorizzi - 0.0, 217th

 

SP fWAR rank 2018-2020

  • Bauer - 11.5, 7th
  • Paxton - 7.5, 29th
  • Tanaka - 6.5, 36th
  • Richards - 1.7, 141st
  • Porcello - 5.9, 40th
  • Archer - 3.2, 91st
  • Odorizzi - 6.8, 32nd

 

SP fWAR rank 2019-2020

  • Bauer - 5.8, 16th
  • Paxton - 3.8, 39th
  • Tanaka - 4.0, 37th
  • Richards - 0.7, 161st
  • Porcello - 3.5, 46th
  • Archer - 0.7, 162nd
  • Odorizzi - 4.2, 36th

 

@Dochalo want to help with floor, ceiling and potential for injury analysis?

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14 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

That would be incredibly unwise on their part. They'd have to replace four pitchers on their staff in a shallow market next offseason. 

Looks like a decently deep pitching market, and doesn't hamstring the organization financially. It allows room for prospects to develop and take over when they're ready and allows the organization to invest money as it comes off the books instead off investing it in anticipation of it coming off the books. 

I'm not saying it's what I would do. I'm just saying that even if you're opposed to it, you should recognize the benefits of the plan. 

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One thing I like about the Angels is that we're never lumped in with this bullshit. I mean these beatwriters will imply that we're "in" on a player occasionally but it's always speculation and never crap like that.

They just do their thing and at the last minute we know they're actually in. Not saying that's what's happening here, but it's always like that regardless.

 

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3 minutes ago, rafibomb said:

I think we are reading too much into what a beat reporter is guessing. I am pretty sure she knows just as much as we do at this point.

People have been reading too much into every single thing that's happened this off-season.  I think being locked inside has people's imaginations running wild.   It's not just fans -- you got media types making connections based on quotes and snippets from years ago.   Today Bauer's vlog had him working out with the Angels strength guy, who he happens to be friends with.   I fully expect to people to read into that too.

When push comes to shove this offseason has been a huge ???? across the board.   Props to SD for having been active and actually giving both the fans and media something to talk about.

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32 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

She knows nothing. She's simply being realistic. Arte hasn't gone over the luxury tax except once barely and that was years ago. Is she correct? Who knows. There is no new information here. 

someone asked her that, is if it was speculation or knowledge, she responder it wasnt speculation but reporting... take that for whatever its worth. 

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6 minutes ago, floplag said:

someone asked her that, is if it was speculation or knowledge, she responder it wasnt speculation but reporting... take that for whatever its worth. 

The question was whether this was from Perry himself or her own thinking. So this is just a non-answer to the question. If this was reporting then I'm sure Fletcher and Fabian would have tweeted something as well.

Edited by rafibomb
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3 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

While we are focused on Bauer, consider 2016-2019 in terms of fWAR:

Bauer:  2.6, 2.8, 5.3, 3.3

Paxton:  3.6, 4.4, 3.7, 3.5.

If we don't sign Bauer, Paxton might certainly be worth some consideration.

Paxton is made of glass and gets hurt every year. Pass on him too unless it's a heavy incentive laden short-term deal(2 years with maybe a option on the 3rd year). Rather just sign Odorizzi or hold out hope they can trade for a SP.

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Paxton's velocity took a huge dive this past year. Could be an outlier, but his health is always in question.

Honestly I don't think he's even an option for Perry, but of course I could be wrong.

We really need stability. You can't predict health but when signing a guy with an injury history like Paxton, you kinda knew what you were getting if he misses 10-15 starts.

Edited by tdawg87
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3 minutes ago, bloodbrother said:

Paxton is made of glass and gets hurt every year. Pass on him too unless it's a heavy incentive laden short-term deal(2 years with maybe a option on the 3rd year). Rather just sign Odorizzi or hold out hope they can trade for a SP.

Bingo, and that's exactly what I think we'll see Minasian look for - a short-term, incentive-laden deal for a SP.  Kinda like what Quintana got - a one year, "prove it" type deal.

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