The Official 2020-2021 Hot Stove Offseason Thread

[BTH]

I just checked out Yu Darvish's deal and although he's 34, it's very reasonable. He's owed $59 million over the next 3 seasons. $22M in 2021, $19M in 2022, and $18M in 2023. If the Cubs are open to dealing him, the Angels need to be all over this. Build a package around Adell or Marsh.

[kevinb]

5 hours ago, Trendon said:

I just checked out Yu Darvish's deal and although he's 34, it's very reasonable. He's owed $59 million over the next 3 seasons. $22M in 2021, $19M in 2022, and $18M in 2023. If the Cubs are open to dealing him, the Angels need to be all over this. Build a package around Adell or Marsh.

Zero chance on the planet I’d trade anyone for a 34 year old pitcher. None what so ever. The likelihood he gets hurt is high. Why would the Angels trade Adell or Marsh who are young and haven’t even hit their prime yet and not even close. for a pitcher who’s on the decline of his career? Come on now. 

[Stradling]

2 hours ago, Kevinb said:

Zero chance on the planet I’d trade anyone for a 34 year old pitcher. None what so ever. The likelihood he gets hurt is high. Why would the Angels trade Adell or Marsh who are young and haven’t even hit their prime yet and not even close. for a pitcher who’s on the decline of his career? Come on now. 

I wouldn’t trade either of those guys for Darvish. But if we are to put a crazy high value on Bauer based on how good he was in 2020, then you should put a very high value on Darvish.  He was great this past year.  He’s also going to cost $8-10 million less than Bauer per year, which frees up more money to improve elsewhere. 

[Stradling]

 

[totdprods]

I keep seeing Bauer at like $27m AAV...

I’m not sure he gets that little...

Cole and Strasburg were in some ways on a other level and they blew that out of the water last year, I think we’ll see some team do something similarly with Bauer. 

I’m also just not convinced we’re the data/science driven team he’s seeking. Not sure if he would gel with Callaway. Not sure if someone more traditional and conservative like Arte would want someone like Bauer’s antics either. I just have a hard time seeing it fit.

I’ll take Darvish at 3/$59m.

[angelsnationtalk]

22 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I keep seeing Bauer at like $27m AAV...

I’m not sure he gets that little...

Cole and Strasburg were in some ways on a other level and they blew that out of the water last year, I think we’ll see some team do something similarly with Bauer. 

I’m also just not convinced we’re the data/science driven team he’s seeking. Not sure if he would gel with Callaway. Not sure if someone more traditional and conservative like Arte would want someone like Bauer’s antics either. I just have a hard time seeing it fit.

I’ll take Darvish at 3/$59m.

To me it's a yes and no. 
We don't know what type of data/science front office we will have yet. Minasian is young so i'm sure there will be more analytics then Eppler had, but also to your point, I doubt it's a full-blown computer house. 

I think a decision depends 100% on the contract Bauer wants and how much exposure Arte wants to allow him to vlog in the clubhouse. 
But he did say "payroll isn't going down" and he's acknowledged once again that we need pitching so maybe he pushes for it???

We made runs at all the big names the last few years (Cole, Stras, Corbin, etc...) Eventually we will land one.... Maybe it's this year. 

[tdawg87]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

 

Yes.

[eligrba]

12 hours ago, Trendon said:

I just checked out Yu Darvish's deal and although he's 34, it's very reasonable. He's owed $59 million over the next 3 seasons. $22M in 2021, $19M in 2022, and $18M in 2023. If the Cubs are open to dealing him, the Angels need to be all over this. Build a package around Adell or Marsh.

I don't understand why you would consider trading some high upside prospects for a 34 yr old pitcher not named Verlander.  No. No. No.  I would bet the Cubs are totally open to dealing that contract.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

I keep seeing Bauer at like $27m AAV...

I’m not sure he gets that little...

Cole and Strasburg were in some ways on a other level and they blew that out of the water last year, I think we’ll see some team do something similarly with Bauer. 

I’m also just not convinced we’re the data/science driven team he’s seeking. Not sure if he would gel with Callaway. Not sure if someone more traditional and conservative like Arte would want someone like Bauer’s antics either. I just have a hard time seeing it fit.

I’ll take Darvish at 3/$59m.

Bauer himself has said he went about things differently because of the 60 game season.  Physically he's not in Cole's league.  Career wise, he's not either.  With Bauer I think teams will be looking at his career and not just a 75 inning sample.  

For me he's more Patrick Corbin than Cole or Strasburg and I think that's where he ends up dollar wise.

[totdprods]

59 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Bauer himself has said he went about things differently because of the 60 game season.  Physically he's not in Cole's league.  Career wise, he's not either.  With Bauer I think teams will be looking at his career and not just a 75 inning sample.  

For me he's more Patrick Corbin than Cole or Strasburg and I think that's where he ends up dollar wise.

Yeah, I agree with that assessment totally, but he’s still the best (only?) arm available this year in FA and there will be no shortage of suitors. Maybe the virus and even lack of other arms depresses his value to a ~$27m AAV range, which I think is fair, but I still think he pulls something pretty eye-popping. 

[kevinb]

6 hours ago, Stradling said:

I wouldn’t trade either of those guys for Darvish. But if we are to put a crazy high value on Bauer based on how good he was in 2020, then you should put a very high value on Darvish.  He was great this past year.  He’s also going to cost $8-10 million less than Bauer per year, which frees up more money to improve elsewhere. 

I don’t put a crazy high value on Darvish for one simple thing he’s older and signed to more years. I wouldn’t trade young guys for an old pitcher. I value Bauer because of how good he is and his age. That being said I wouldn’t offer him any amount of money over his 35th year. 

[Docwaukee]

46 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

I don’t put a crazy high value on Darvish for one simple thing he’s older and signed to more years. I wouldn’t trade young guys for an old pitcher. I value Bauer because of how good he is and his age. That being said I wouldn’t offer him any amount of money over his 35th year. 

If you won't consider a guy like Darvish where you take money on for an older guy then it's gonna be next to impossible to add a potential front of the rotation arm.  No amount of prospects is going to pry away a young front of the rotation starter who isn't owed a lot of money.  

I agree with you btw that there is tremendous risk with Darvish and his age relative to what he's owed.  I wouldn't trade any of our top prospects for him either.  But the reality is that if that's the Angels stance, then they likely aren't going to acquire a guy who can pitch at the top of the rotation.  

But I may be one of the few who is ok with that.  I personally feel like we can get away with having a solid rotation as opposed to what we saw with teams like the Nats or Astros a couple years ago.  I don't think people realize how rare it is to be able to put something like that together.  Almost historically good.  

My main premise is that the Angels need to avoid the Teheran's, the Harvey's and Cahills, and Allens and Giavotellas and Rafael Ortegas and Danny Espinosas or Ben Revere/Maybin combos or Valbuenas (RIP), or Cozarts or Chris Young types or getting -2 WAR from a position or that pitcher with an ERA of 9 that makes half a season worth of starts or pitches half a seasons worth of innings out of the pen.  

You're never going to completely get away from that so having it at a spot or two is understood.  Just not at like 5 or 6 spots.  

[Stradling]

And if you aren’t paying Bauer any money after his 35th birthday, you probably aren’t signing him.  He’s getting 6-7 years. 

[Chuck]

Remember two years ago when we were talking about trading for deGrom and people were saying he was too old and too much of a health risk?

Well he's won a CY Young Award since then and has been a stud.

Darvish since the middle of 2019 through the shortened season in 2020 he's been every bit as good as Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer and Jacob deGrom. 

If you can get Darvish for a good prospect package, you do it IMO. This team needs a frontline guy badly! 

[Docwaukee]

15 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Remember two years ago when we were talking about trading for deGrom and people were saying he was too old and too much of a health risk?

Well he's won a CY Young Award since then and has been a stud.

Darvish since the middle of 2019 through the shortened season in 2020 he's been every bit as good as Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer and Jacob deGrom. 

If you can get Darvish for a good prospect package, you do it IMO. This team needs a frontline guy badly! 

two years ago, Degrom was 30 years old and only had 2 years of control left at the time.  Darvish is entering his age 34 season and has a contract for age 34-36.  It's apples and oranges.  

[Chuck]

2 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

two years ago, Degrom was 30 years old and only had 2 years of control left at the time.  Darvish is entering his age 34 season and has a contract for age 34-36.  It's apples and oranges.  

But both pitchers are producing the same results. One would have cost our entire farm, Darvish not so much. 

Totally worth the risk in exchange for prospects IMO. 

[Inside Pitch]

28 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Remember two years ago when we were talking about trading for deGrom and people were saying he was too old and too much of a health risk?

Well he's won a CY Young Award since then and has been a stud.

Darvish since the middle of 2019 through the shortened season in 2020 he's been every bit as good as Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer and Jacob deGrom. 

If you can get Darvish for a good prospect package, you do it IMO. This team needs a frontline guy badly! 

You're combining the Syndergaard and deGrom convos..   

  Syndergaard was the injury risk, I think the vast majority of people saw deGrom as a good get but an expensive one.

[Chuck]

4 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

You're combining the Syndergaard and deGrom convos..   

  Syndergaard was the injury risk, I think the vast majority of people saw deGrom as a good get but an expensive one.

It must have been in another thread then. I remember some were against deGrom because of his injuries/age as well. 

That said, I'd really like the Angels to look at trading for Darvish/Contreras in exchange for prospects/players. 

[Dtwncbad]

Darvish seems like the wrong guy to me.  Why?  I don’t know.  Just a guy feel that this would be buying too high on a 34 year old that I don’t think is in the category of pitchers I believe will dominate into their late 30s.

[Inside Pitch]

20 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

It must have been in another thread then. I remember some were against deGrom because of his injuries/age as well. 

That said, I'd really like the Angels to look at trading for Darvish/Contreras in exchange for prospects/players. 

Maybe, I just remember your thread was pretty civil and level headed.   

[Chuck]

32 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Darvish seems like the wrong guy to me.  Why?  I don’t know.  Just a guy feel that this would be buying too high on a 34 year old that I don’t think is in the category of pitchers I believe will dominate into their late 30s.

I mean he's not ideal because of his age and past injury concerns, but he has been healthy now for two straight years and as I mentioned before he's been just as dominate as aces Bauer, deGrom, Cole over that span. 

Here's the thing. Cole is taken, deGrom is not going anywhere and Bauer is going to cost a truckload of guaranteed money over  6-10 year contract that is far greater than what Darvish is currently making. 

So the way I see it there's three scenarios that make us better this offseason.

1. Sign Trevor Bauer. 

2. Trade prospects for Darvish.

3. Sign two secondary pieces (Tanaka, Odorizzi, Kluber, Paxton, Walker, Minor etc.) who are on par with Bundy and hope Ohtani reemerges as an ace. 

Scenario one rotation: Bauer, Ohtani, Bundy, Heaney, Canning

Scenario two rotation: Darvish, Ohtani, Bundy, Heaney, Canning

Scenario three rotation: Ohtani, Bundy, Walker, Musgrove, Heaney, Canning (six man rotation)

 

[totdprods]

I'm fully onboard with the idea of trading for Darvish. At this point, the Angels are simply going to have to roll the dice on someone if they want to be competitive in the next couple of years, when Trout and Rendon are at their peak, Ohtani is with the team, and perhaps even with Pujols and Upton on the team - you know Arte would like to see his big investments get a shot at the playoffs just as much as we do Trout, even if those players aren't close to the same level. 

Bauer, obviously, is preferred since he won't cost any prospects. After him, the frontline starting pitcher crowd thins out really, really fast. There just aren't many 'aces' available now, nor are there any obvious ones set to be dealt midseason, and next winter isn't very promising for top arms in free agency either. 

So, with all that said...there isn't much out there readily available who could give you #1 stuff after Bauer besides Darvish. I don't know if Arte or the Angels want to wait another year or two to see who else could hit the market. 

[GrittyVeterans]

I like Hendricks’ track record and consistency a lot more than Darvish’s. Darvish is a frustrating pitcher and a bit of an enigma at times
 

But realistically the Angels need both if they aren’t getting Bauer. This team needs a #1 and a #2. I feel comfortable with Bundy-Heaney-Canning as the 3-4-5. If you are still counting on Ohtani I just feel sorry for you at this point

 

the only way I’m building a package around Adell/Marsh is if I’m getting both

[Pancake Bear]

12 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

3. Sign two secondary pieces (Musgrove and Walker?)

Musgrove would be a trade. Probably not cheap either.

[Chuck]

Just now, Pancake Bear said:

Musgrove would be a trade. Probably not cheap either.

Ah, never mind then. I thought he was a FA. My bad.