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The Official 2020-2021 Hot Stove Offseason Thread


rafibomb

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28 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Mets win if being able to be a serious contender is the deciding factor.

Maybe, but that seems to assume a roughly equal pair of offers. We haven't the faintest idea where discussions are with any team. And in Bauer's case, it apparently doesn't come down exclusively to money, but also to other factor - not just winning, but also issues related to his brand building (Cohen seems like he'd be more modern in that sense than Arte, fwiw) and openness to him pitching more often (difficult to say on that). 

Simple fact is, Bauer is a unique case, and if he is to be believed, money will only be part of the decision for him - although an important part. What I take away from what he's said, is he could conceivably leave a little money on the table for a better situation. Again, we don't have enough information to know what that means as far as who is in and who is likely to sign him.

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39 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Mets win if being able to be a serious contender is the deciding factor.

If this is true, I think he would have already signed.  If he is interested in being “The Guy” than the Angels have the edge. Bauer is probably not pitching the most important games for the Mets, but most definitely will be for the Angels.

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2 hours ago, Trendon said:

I saw this tweet the other day. I haven't had the time to dig in and see if it's actually true, but if it is that might be a sign of the approach Minasian's going to take with the Angels since he worked for Anthopolous.

 

 

That's also an indication of how having a deep system means you don't have to move your top guys.   

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4 hours ago, Trendon said:

I saw this tweet the other day. I haven't had the time to dig in and see if it's actually true, but if it is that might be a sign of the approach Minasian's going to take with the Angels since he worked for Anthopolous.

 

 

I actually hope he takes this approach for the most part.  With the caveat that pulling the trigger on the last guy to put you over the top is sometimes necessary.  

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per mlbtraderumors, The Mets bid about 6/120 for Springer.  Being outbid by $30m is more than I expected but I guess that's what a team like Toronto has to do in order to secure a high end free agent.  

and as much as we've heard that the Mets are willing to spend, they clearly aren't prepared to do anything stupid.  

I think the AAV for Bauer is going to be around 27m as I don't get the sense that the Mets would overbid on him.    

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I usually get a different scenario in my head every night for the Angels and here's where I'm at tonight:

The Angels aren't in a position to trade prospects like Marsh/Adell/Adams.... yet. 
If this was done then they'd be right back where they started with no true top talent in the farm. 

While the Angels continue to "try" and contend they've been spending more money to offset their lack of prospects over the years which is fine, but they have to be selective/careful with how much they spend and for how long. 

In Arte's case, there's not much of a problem with being afraid to pay big bucks (weather it's good or bad). The issue comes to this... Arte knows he needs to spend more until his top prospects can come up and replace those aging contracts (Pujols, Upton), but he's failed time and time again to put the money towards the rotation. 

Mike Trout isn't getting younger. The dude will turn 30 this year and has yet to win a playoff game. If I were Arte then he's got to fork out more money for one more year. You can't keep "trying" to be competitive and lying to yourself when you know you're not. Arte has said he'd pay the tax if it was for the right player and this is the last year where payroll is tight. 

It's not my money, obviously, but from a roster/prospect standpoint, he needs to spend this offseason and save his prospects. 

There's talent developing in the farm. One more year of extra spending and then payroll will start to go the opposite way while our farm gets better and better. 

Sorry Arte, I don't see any other choice. 

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I mean, Bauer hasn't talked to other teams fans nearly as much as he has Angels fans. Maybe that actually means something. But the way I see it, there are two choices.

1. Sign Bauer and increase payroll to around 205 million in 2021, and then dip back under the CBT threshold in subsequent years, until they are back down at 180, maybe by 2025. It requires a one time investment in payroll beyond a comfortable capacity in order to win now, and allow the prospects to develop so you can sustainable win in the future. Similar to what the Dodgers did when Friedman took over. 

2. Don't sign Bauer, keep payroll within the limits and wait until money comes off the books from Pujols and Upton before reinvesting it in pitchers. There's still a chance the Angels are a playoff team in 2021 and 2022, they'd just need things to go their way in terms of Ohtani, Bundy, Canning, etc...

-----

You're justified in either action you take. Sure, I think Bauer is the best course of action. Money can be spent and earned. Elite prospects on the other hand, are much more valuable. Keep them around and prosper. But if Minasian plays it safe and doesn't spend money he doesn't have, then he's being fiscally responsible. 

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51 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I usually get a different scenario in my head every night for the Angels and here's where I'm at tonight:

The Angels aren't in a position to trade prospects like Marsh/Adell/Adams.... yet. 
If this was done then they'd be right back where they started with no true top talent in the farm. 

While the Angels continue to "try" and contend they've been spending more money to offset their lack of prospects over the years which is fine, but they have to be selective/careful with how much they spend and for how long. 

In Arte's case, there's not much of a problem with being afraid to pay big bucks (weather it's good or bad). The issue comes to this... Arte knows he needs to spend more until his top prospects can come up and replace those aging contracts (Pujols, Upton), but he's failed time and time again to put the money towards the rotation. 

Mike Trout isn't getting younger. The dude will turn 30 this year and has yet to win a playoff game. If I were Arte then he's got to fork out more money for one more year. You can't keep "trying" to be competitive and lying to yourself when you know you're not. Arte has said he'd pay the tax if it was for the right player and this is the last year where payroll is tight. 

It's not my money, obviously, but from a roster/prospect standpoint, he needs to spend this offseason and save his prospects. 

There's talent developing in the farm. One more year of extra spending and then payroll will start to go the opposite way while our farm gets better and better. 

Sorry Arte, I don't see any other choice. 

I think several of us have been saying this for a long time.  Yet now more than ever it rings true.  

There isn't a more obvious time to add payroll as a means of covering the team's shortcomings.   People talk about how they haven't developed pitching or really had any for awhile, but that not exactly true.  

after a 98 win season in 2014 where 6 guys (Weaver, Wilson, Richards, Shoe, Santiago and Skaggs) made 153 starts and posted a collective fip of 3.68, they entered 2015 with all those same players until Skaggs needed TJ yet Heaney stepped in and once again, their top 6 guys made 153 starts again.  Plus they got a look at Tropeano, who did well in 7 starts and they had just drafted a highly regarded college pitcher with their 1st pick in the draft in Newcomb.    

Upon entering 2016, they were sans Newcomb due to the Simmons trade but they once again started the season with Weaver, Richards, Shoe, Heaney, Santiago, Tropeano, and expected Skaggs back early to mid year.  Then the shit really hit the fan and there was no backup whatsoever.  Not from the farm or in terms of payroll space.  

Richards would pitch another 138.2 innings over the next three seasons for the halos.  To me, this was by far the biggest blow to the team for 16, 17, and 18.  

Heaney would pitch 27.2 innings the next two years.  

Shoe would pitch 108.2 innings in 17 and 18.  

Tropeano threw 158 innings over the next four years and wasn't the same after TJ (or maybe he just wasn't that good to begin with)

Skaggs threw 339.2 innings over the next four years before he passed. 

Weaver turned into a pumpkin.  

and it all came crumbling down.  Each year thinking that at least a couple of these guys would recover and contribute but it didn't really happen.  There was no money.  There was no one to trade.  

My point is that there was always hope that the existing guys would get past their injury and do what they were supposed to.  Whereas now, there is probably that one guy to lay our hopes on in that regard and who knows where he ends up.  

But the other key component was that there were a lot more holes back then.  Guys like Espinosa at 2b, Ben Revere in LF, a declining Albert at DH.  Escobar at 3b, Giavotella, and Ortega, and Carlos Perez, and Cron.  

Yet now, when I look up and down, I don't see nearly the holes that were there before and where I do have mild concern it's because the player is young and actually has potential to be more than we've seen.  (with perhaps the exception of LF).  Yet we've also got guys in the minors that might actually be able to take their spot if things go bad.  Everywhere except one spot.  

Plus, we're not looking up at a team that could fall out of bed and win 100 games anymore. 

We've got guys in place with more coming.  In retrospect, as much as I wanted them to spend their way through the pain, it didn't make sense.  The team wasn't good enough to justify that.  

Now it is.  Pull the trigger and spend the money.  

 

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and I thought I would also mention that one of the reasons Billy might have gotten fired isn't that he failed on all the one year deals or that he failed to secure pitching, but that 23m dedicated to Upton in 2021 and the additional 28m allocated to him in 2022.  Damn that would be a nice chunk of change to spend on someone else.  

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1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

and I thought I would also mention that one of the reasons Billy might have gotten fired isn't that he failed on all the one year deals or that he failed to secure pitching, but that 23m dedicated to Upton in 2021 and the additional 28m allocated to him in 2022.  Damn that would be a nice chunk of change to spend on someone else.  

I still think a healthy Upton can contribute. His last 100 PA .289/.379/.602.

Can't count on it though

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2 hours ago, beatlesrule said:

It’s “believed” that the Mets and Angels have the best chance to land Bauer, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Meanwhile, despite the interest the Dodgers have shown in Bauer, it “still feels like a long shot to most industry sources” that he will end up with them, Feinsand writes.

Yeah, I sorta feel like the Dodgers are being used as a "looming threat" to try to improve offers.

The Dodgers are right at the luxury tax limit and still have to re-sign Turner and are rumored to be looking for more bullpen support.

Even without additional bullpen support, Turner + Bauer likely catapults them more than 40mil over the luxury tax limit.  I just don't see them approaching those levels.  

My gut feeling is it is between the Giants and Angels.  The Mets could be a possibility still I suppose, but with DeGrom, Syndergaard, Carrasco, Stroman .. I am not sure they will go after another expensive pitcher.

It would make sense to use the Dodgers as a looming threat if the two teams pursuing Bauer are the Giants and Angels, as the Dodgers are essentially considered rivals to both teams (although I really don't see how they are our rivals at all, but I digress..).

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