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Arbitration estimates from MLBTR


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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2021.html
 

Using these numbers, I’d say the Angels will  tender 9 of these guys, maybe 10. That will put their payroll (actual not Luxury Tax) at 118.888 plus between 20.7 and 34 for 13-14 guys not under club control. There are 20 guys looking at those spots under club control, most likely only 10-12 get them. That 10-12 will likely cost them 8 more. 
 

Total Payroll before Free Agency is 147.5 to 160 Million.

Budget is probably around 190-200 and that would mean 40-52 in actual salary. 
 

Luxury Tax figures is only slightly lower but you also have to add like 15 M in Benefits and 40-man salaries So for tax purposes it’s probably 160-172. Giving them between 38-50 million in tax room.

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7 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Based on these numbers, I would assume Robles is not tendered a contract.  I think the rest will be, though.  

It'll be interesting to see what numbers are used.  Even if we use the highest numbers, I'd assume we could add at least 30mil in payroll.  

Not sure all the rest will be tendered.  If they non-tender Robles (I can't see any reason why they WOULD offer him a contract), that's still 7 relievers on that list--plus Buttrey and Milner, etc who aren't yet eligible for arbitration.  Something's gotta give there.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Middleton get non-tendered and possibly 1-2 others.

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30 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Not sure all the rest will be tendered.  If they non-tender Robles (I can't see any reason why they WOULD offer him a contract), that's still 7 relievers on that list--plus Buttrey and Milner, etc who aren't yet eligible for arbitration.  Something's gotta give there.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Middleton get non-tendered and possibly 1-2 others.

A number of guys do have options.  I'm sure they'll utilize options so they can flex guys back and forth throughout the year.

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The pen in 2021 will likely feature a new name or two but also these 7 guys: Mayers, Pena, Buttrey, Bedrosian, Middleton, Noe Ramirez, and Milner or Quijada. Yan, CRod could figure in later in the year and of course you have the loser from Sandoval and Barria if they add only one starter. Andriese is a possible non tender but they also like him I think. So it all depends.

If they trade for a guy like Jon Gray, they would also likely move a name or two from this list in such a trade. 

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1 minute ago, Hubs said:

The pen in 2021 will likely feature a new name or two but also these 7 guys: Mayers, Pena, Buttrey, Bedrosian, Middleton, Noe Ramirez, and Milner or Quijada. Yan, CRod could figure in later in the year and of course you have the loser from Sandoval and Barria if they add only one starter. Andriese is a possible non tender but they also like him I think. So it all depends.

If they trade for a guy like Jon Gray, they would also likely move a name or two from this list in such a trade. 

Andriese was actually one of our more reliable relievers by season's end.  I felt he was #3 in Maddon's pecking order, after Mayers and Pena.  Considering Andriese will probably earn somewhere between 2-3 mil in arbitration, I'm guessing they'll keep him.

Agreed with the 7 relievers you mentioned.  Reyes, who we got from SD, could be an option, too.  Naughton, who we got from CIN, could be a lefty reliever if he isn't seen as a SP.

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Non-tendering Middleton at about $1m is mind-bogglingly crazy to me.

If we non-tender him, there will be about 10 (or 20 or 29) other teams calling his agent with offers probably at right near or more than $1m a year. I think many of those offers would even be multi-year.

An age 27 pitcher with that kind of power arm on his 2nd year after TJS is a bounceback candidate with a lot of upside.  There will be a lot of GMs all over that for only double the league minimum.

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And not to put to put too fine a point on it, but as I am watching Tampa Bay run out an endless parade of guys who throw 97-98-99 out of their bullpen here....

If we non-tender Middleton at $1m *and* keep Noe for the same price, I'm going to start the "Fire GM [fill in the blank]" thread myself.

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Middleton will not get non tendered. Anyone who makes 1.5 M or less is safe. The ones who make more are the ones you can see getting non tendered. Bedrosian, Andriese, Robles. The first two have a chance to stay, Robles is almost certainly gone. 
 

They need starting pitching And figure to add one or more in free agency and trades. and so some of Andriese appeal is that he can also start, but assuming they bring back all of their starters from last season where would he rank? 8th? 9th? 10th? 11th?

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The max they'll need to spend on arb is about 40m.  My guess is that the number will be closer to 30m after they non-tender robles and cut a bit into those max amounts provided by mlbtr. 

So they'll be at around 155m after you add in the non-arb elig guys.  

There should be plenty of coin for a solid starter.  And I think they'll trade for one more.  

A SP is priority #1.  Then after that you've got some room to look around and see what works best for who's out there and your budget.  Another starter?  A top end pen arm?  A starting MIFer?  All three of the latter are pretty close to equal priority in my view.  Handing the job to Rengifo at 2b seems like as much of a setup for failure as does handing Sandoval a rotation spot.  I might even put pen toward the bottom because I expect Buttrey and probably one other guy to rebound next year.  Like a Middleton or even a guy like Barnes to step up.  You can find a really good pen arm in the 4-5mil range and it's probably almost as likely they perform as well as someone in the 8-10m range.  Elite relievers are the only ones less volatile and they'll cost 15m.  Not sure the team will do that.  

The key is that you have to avoid being in a spot to roll out at guy like teheran again to make 15% of your starts and rock an era above 10.  If you can somehow avoid the tremendously awful performances that Billy couldn't, the team will improve even if you aren't bringing in all stars.  

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Robles, Bedrosian, and Middleton all seem like they’d hold a bit of trade value too. 

Bedrosian is steady enough and cheap enough virtually any team could be a fit. Robles could be an intriguing buy-low for a small-market or cellar-dweller team with an opportunity for him to recoup trade value as a closer. Middleton? Have a weird feeling his social stances and Twitter presence could have made him regrettably expendable behind the scenes. I don’t think Arte is that petty or involved - just a hunch. I guess Ramirez could quietly have some value too. 

Middleton as one of the pieces in a deal with Pittsburgh for Musgrove or Colorado with Gray as @Hubs alluded to makes sense, especially if the Angels were to try and pry back a reliever from one of those teams as well.

 

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3 hours ago, totdprods said:

Robles, Bedrosian, and Middleton all seem like they’d hold a bit of trade value too. 

Bedrosian is steady enough and cheap enough virtually any team could be a fit. Robles could be an intriguing buy-low for a small-market or cellar-dweller team with an opportunity for him to recoup trade value as a closer. Middleton? Have a weird feeling his social stances and Twitter presence could have made him regrettably expendable behind the scenes. I don’t think Arte is that petty or involved - just a hunch. I guess Ramirez could quietly have some value too. 

Middleton as one of the pieces in a deal with Pittsburgh for Musgrove or Colorado with Gray as @Hubs alluded to makes sense, especially if the Angels were to try and pry back a reliever from one of those teams as well.

 

After Robles' season, he holds no trade value, IMO.  Teams know the Angels will not tender him and will just wait for him to hit the open market and offer a very modest contract.  

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9 hours ago, Dochalo said:

The max they'll need to spend on arb is about 40m.  My guess is that the number will be closer to 30m after they non-tender robles and cut a bit into those max amounts provided by mlbtr. 

So they'll be at around 155m after you add in the non-arb elig guys.  

There should be plenty of coin for a solid starter.  And I think they'll trade for one more.  

A SP is priority #1.  Then after that you've got some room to look around and see what works best for who's out there and your budget.  Another starter?  A top end pen arm?  A starting MIFer?  All three of the latter are pretty close to equal priority in my view.  Handing the job to Rengifo at 2b seems like as much of a setup for failure as does handing Sandoval a rotation spot.  I might even put pen toward the bottom because I expect Buttrey and probably one other guy to rebound next year.  Like a Middleton or even a guy like Barnes to step up.  You can find a really good pen arm in the 4-5mil range and it's probably almost as likely they perform as well as someone in the 8-10m range.  Elite relievers are the only ones less volatile and they'll cost 15m.  Not sure the team will do that.  

The key is that you have to avoid being in a spot to roll out at guy like teheran again to make 15% of your starts and rock an era above 10.  If you can somehow avoid the tremendously awful performances that Billy couldn't, the team will improve even if you aren't bringing in all stars.  

I'd go all in on Bauer.  For the middle infield, I'd take a look at Brad Miller, who should be available at a very modest cost and has positional versatility.  If Rengifo isn't good, Miller can play 2B.

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25 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

After Robles' season, he holds no trade value, IMO.  Teams know the Angels will not tender him and will just wait for him to hit the open market and offer a very modest contract.  

Where they then have to compete with 28 other teams who could theoretically have interest.

He was so good in 2019, and relatively decent before, that I think the Angels could pluck a 4A catcher or a defense-first MIF, (maybe someone like Taylor Walls from Tampa who could be squeezed in a R5 crunch) something that would help their general depth, that I could see something happening.
 

I also think Robles’ issues could very well have been mental or a personality clash with Callaway too. Purely speculating. 

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It's too early to give up on Middleton, Let him have an healthy, non tj related offseason and see what he brings. He shown flashes to dominate. 

Still don't understand the Hate on Bedrock and Noe, these two guys have been consist and easily worth the price.

Buttery i think might have to rework his windup, he falls of too much

We'll also be getting Anderson back, but no clue on how he'll do. We also have that one guy we traded for from the padres.

Robles, try to resign for less than his Arb

Sign Britton to solidify the back end. Our biggest issue was not have a closer. Britton might not be that élite closer he once was, but he still a solid arm. 

IF it comes down to it, Move Sandoval down to the Bullpen. 

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45 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

It's too early to give up on Middleton, Let him have an healthy, non tj related offseason and see what he brings. He shown flashes to dominate. 

Still don't understand the Hate on Bedrock and Noe, these two guys have been consist and easily worth the price.

Buttery i think might have to rework his windup, he falls of too much

We'll also be getting Anderson back, but no clue on how he'll do. We also have that one guy we traded for from the padres.

Robles, try to resign for less than his Arb

Sign Britton to solidify the back end. Our biggest issue was not have a closer. Britton might not be that élite closer he once was, but he still a solid arm. 

IF it comes down to it, Move Sandoval down to the Bullpen. 

My desire to sign someone like Bauer, and in turn flip Adell for a young, good cost-controlled SP like Plesac (or one of the DET young arms), is that it'll also help the pen, as we can use Sandoval as a multi-inning, LH relief weapon.  He looked fantastic in that role, and if we had Bauer, Bundy, Pleasac, Heaney, Canning, Barria, Ohtani, etc .. we wouldn't need Sandoval to start.  So the moves to help our rotation help our pen, too.

Fleshing out the thought a bit:

1.  Sign Bauer (7/210?)

2.  Trade Adell to CLE for Pleasac + a relief prospect?

3.  Sign Brad Miller as a 2B insurance policy (or multi-positional utility man if Rengifo pans out).

4.  Give Ohtani some training in RF, just as a fallback, in case we need backup OF coverage.

Lineup:  SS Fletcher, 1B Walsh, CF Trout, 3B Rendon, DH Ohtani, LF Upton, 2B Miller, RF Ward, C Stassi

Rotation:  Bauer, Bundy, Pleasac, Heaney, Barria, Ohtani.  Canning can start off in AAA, since he has options.  Or, knowing how SP health is, someone will be hurt and we won't have any issues.

Bullpen:  Mayers, Pena, Andriese, Buttrey, Bedrosian, Ramirez, Middleton, Sandoval, etc..

Then, sometime in 2021, Marsh can take over RF, Ward becomes a solid utility player who covers RF/LF/3B/1B, and our lineup has even more LH/RH balance.

And I believe this would all fit under the cap, too.

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50 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

My desire to sign someone like Bauer, and in turn flip Adell for a young, good cost-controlled SP like Plesac (or one of the DET young arms), is that it'll also help the pen, as we can use Sandoval as a multi-inning, LH relief weapon.  He looked fantastic in that role, and if we had Bauer, Bundy, Pleasac, Heaney, Canning, Barria, Ohtani, etc .. we wouldn't need Sandoval to start.  So the moves to help our rotation help our pen, too.

Fleshing out the thought a bit:

1.  Sign Bauer (7/210?)

2.  Trade Adell to CLE for Pleasac + a relief prospect?

3.  Sign Brad Miller as a 2B insurance policy (or multi-positional utility man if Rengifo pans out).

4.  Give Ohtani some training in RF, just as a fallback, in case we need backup OF coverage.

Lineup:  SS Fletcher, 1B Walsh, CF Trout, 3B Rendon, DH Ohtani, LF Upton, 2B Miller, RF Ward, C Stassi

Rotation:  Bauer, Bundy, Pleasac, Heaney, Barria, Ohtani.  Canning can start off in AAA, since he has options.  Or, knowing how SP health is, someone will be hurt and we won't have any issues.

Bullpen:  Mayers, Pena, Andriese, Buttrey, Bedrosian, Ramirez, Middleton, Sandoval, etc..

Then, sometime in 2021, Marsh can take over RF, Ward becomes a solid utility player who covers RF/LF/3B/1B, and our lineup has even more LH/RH balance.

And I believe this would all fit under the cap, too.

I agree with the sign Bauer. That's likely the number it will take too, even if the contract will likely have opt outs and tons of performance incentives, which I think makes it better for Bauer, as he's said he likes the motiviation.

I don't agree with anything else.

Adell is not done, he had a rough start, let's not give up on him yet. His defense needs work. His patience at the plate needs work. He's only 21. Next year is his age 22 season, and if he spends the vast majority at AAA, that's ok. Plesac is a 25 year old starter, he won't be traded, and I don't think Adell would be enough to get him right now.

Brad Miller is not a good defender. I think they'll miss Simmons defense, if they get a poor defender at 2nd or SS to replace him. Rengifo is ok, and Barreto is ok, but neither are proven.

If I'm going to trade from the Adell /Marsh/ Adams trio, I'd like to get someone who's gonna help for multiple years, but the guy I might try to get is Trevor Story. He's due a big raise to 17.5M dollars, from a prorated 8, and then is a free agent, so the Rockies uncertain if they'll be a contender or not, may look to rebuild. I saw a piece saying the Angels should take Blackmon and Gray for Upton and Marsh, because Blackmon is owed more money in the long run, but that doesn't make that much sense.

And if I can get Story (even if it's just for 21), and Jon Gray in a deal for one of the trio plus some prospects, I do it.

Yes that adds a lot of Salary, but honestly in the free agent market, I don't know who else I'd like besides Stroman or Bundy.

I'd imagine a starter would go back to the Rockies, maybe a starter and a bullpen arm, and a boat load of prospects.

Story at SS and Fletcher at 2nd, would be very nice.

I can't see them adding Story and Gray and another top arm, like Bauer, but maybe they stretch the budget, and you have all of Pujols' money coming off next year in addition to the money from Bundy and Heaney, so you have a one year payroll surge.

If I can get these two, I do it. And I try to sign a starter and cobble together a pen, and go for it.

Bundy, Gray, Heaney, Canning, Barria, Ohtani, Richards (as a FA) is an okay to good staff. I like Bauer better but only one team is signing him.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I agree with the sign Bauer. That's likely the number it will take too, even if the contract will likely have opt outs and tons of performance incentives, which I think makes it better for Bauer, as he's said he likes the motiviation.

I don't agree with anything else.

Adell is not done, he had a rough start, let's not give up on him yet. His defense needs work. His patience at the plate needs work. He's only 21. Next year is his age 22 season, and if he spends the vast majority at AAA, that's ok. Plesac is a 25 year old starter, he won't be traded, and I don't think Adell would be enough to get him right now.

Brad Miller is not a good defender. I think they'll miss Simmons defense, if they get a poor defender at 2nd or SS to replace him. Rengifo is ok, and Barreto is ok, but neither are proven.

If I'm going to trade from the Adell /Marsh/ Adams trio, I'd like to get someone who's gonna help for multiple years, but the guy I might try to get is Trevor Story. He's due a big raise to 17.5M dollars, from a prorated 8, and then is a free agent, so the Rockies uncertain if they'll be a contender or not, may look to rebuild. I saw a piece saying the Angels should take Blackmon and Gray for Upton and Marsh, because Blackmon is owed more money in the long run, but that doesn't make that much sense.

And if I can get Story (even if it's just for 21), and Jon Gray in a deal for one of the trio plus some prospects, I do it.

Yes that adds a lot of Salary, but honestly in the free agent market, I don't know who else I'd like besides Stroman or Bundy.

I'd imagine a starter would go back to the Rockies, maybe a starter and a bullpen arm, and a boat load of prospects.

Story at SS and Fletcher at 2nd, would be very nice.

I can't see them adding Story and Gray and another top arm, like Bauer, but maybe they stretch the budget, and you have all of Pujols' money coming off next year in addition to the money from Bundy and Heaney, so you have a one year payroll surge.

If I can get these two, I do it. And I try to sign a starter and cobble together a pen, and go for it.

Bundy, Gray, Heaney, Canning, Barria, Ohtani, Richards (as a FA) is an okay to good staff. I like Bauer better but only one team is signing him.

 

 

I've mentioned this elsewhere, but my idea of trading Adell isn't because I think he'll bomb or not be good.  Quite the contrary, I think he'll be a really good player.  But that said, my idea is to trade from the area of greatest organizational strength (OFers) to ameliorate its greatest weakness (SP).  Adell is a top 10 prospect (or was before he graduated) and carries a lot of trade value.  So, in that regard, I'd trade him for a very good young SP who has many years of control.  In the short term, we have Trout, Upton, Ward to start in the 2021 OF.  In the near future, the OF could very well be Trout, Marsh, and Adams.

As for Brad Miller - I would sign him mainly as a safety net.  He's a pretty decent LHH who can play multiple positions.  My hope is still that Rengifo would pan out, but if he struggles, at least we'd have someone who can fill the gap and give him a bit of time to develop.

It doesn't have to be Miller - there should be a number of other cheap 2B options who could be signed and plugged in.  I just listed Miller because he provides lineup balance as a LHH and has a good eye at the plate, while also being able to cover multiple positions (granted, not a great defender, but competent enough).

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On 10/16/2020 at 8:43 AM, Inside Pitch said:

I think this winter will see the largest amount of non-tendered players ever.  Owners are going to glut the market with players to try to drive salaries down while at the same time claiming "losses" as their motivation.  

We could glut the market with released pitchers because of losses for sure 

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