Francisco Lindor would you trade for him?

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I think you've hit on why Billy ultimately got fired.  He wasn't very good at mitigating his downside risk.  Getting lesser production than you thought or would have liked is much different than having players who perform so poorly that they are of the worst in baseball and end up getting released.  

It's pretty easy to add up the money that Eppler just flushed down the toilet over his tenure as GM which I am sure was painfully obvious to Arte.  

Lincecum 2m  (-0.7 WAR)
Chavez 5m  (0.2)
Revere, 4m (0.0)
Pennington 2m (0.4)
Valbuena 6.5m (0.9)
Maybin 7.5m (1.2)
Espinosa 5.5m (-1.0)
Ackley 2.25m  (didn't realize they paid this dude that much money in 2017)
Cozart 12.7m (0.5)
Chris Young 2m (-0.5)
Valbuena 8m (-0.9)
Nolasco 8m (0.6)
Upton 18m (in 2019) (-0.2)
Cahill 9m (-0.8)
Bour 2.5m (-0.4)
Luis Garcia 1.7m (-0.6)
Cozart 12.7m (-0.9)
Harvey 11m (-0.3)
Allen 8.5m (-0.7)
Lucroy 3.4m (-0.3)
Wil Wilson 3.4m (signing bonus and wasted 1st round pick)
Upton 7.8m (prorated for 2020) (0.0)
Teheran 3.3m (-0.9)

The total is just shy of $150 mil.  Total for those players is -4.4 WAR.    It could have been a higher total spent had it not been for the prorated salaries of the shortened season. 

I guarantee some low level peon in the finance department set some form of this on Arte's desk at some point and then ran for the hills as a monte blanc pen with an Angels logo was flung toward him on the way out.  

Is some of this offset by a lot of the other good stuff he did or some of the tremendous bargains Eppler found?  Sure.  Some of it.  But this would have to be a fairly striking optic to the guy cutting the checks.  

Is this worse than how other GM's performed on teams with similar money spent over that time period?  I have no idea but I am sure he was aptly compared to his peers in this regard.  

Billy just wasn't very good at avoiding the truly awful and it cost him his job.  

pretty ugly... good research, Doc

[Blarg]

You put Cozart in there twice. 

 

[Docwaukee]

40 minutes ago, Blarg said:

You put Cozart in there twice. 

 

I put a bunch of guys in twice.  For each bad season they had.  

[AngelsLakersFan]

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I think you've hit on why Billy ultimately got fired.  He wasn't very good at mitigating his downside risk.  Getting lesser production than you thought or would have liked is much different than having players who perform so poorly that they are of the worst in baseball and end up getting released.  

It's pretty easy to add up the money that Eppler just flushed down the toilet over his tenure as GM which I am sure was painfully obvious to Arte.  

Lincecum 2m  (-0.7 WAR)
Chavez 5m  (0.2)
Revere, 4m (0.0)
Pennington 2m (0.4)
Valbuena 6.5m (0.9)
Maybin 7.5m (1.2)
Espinosa 5.5m (-1.0)
Ackley 2.25m  (didn't realize they paid this dude that much money in 2017)
Cozart 12.7m (0.5)
Chris Young 2m (-0.5)
Valbuena 8m (-0.9)
Nolasco 8m (0.6)
Upton 18m (in 2019) (-0.2)
Cahill 9m (-0.8)
Bour 2.5m (-0.4)
Luis Garcia 1.7m (-0.6)
Cozart 12.7m (-0.9)
Harvey 11m (-0.3)
Allen 8.5m (-0.7)
Lucroy 3.4m (-0.3)
Wil Wilson 3.4m (signing bonus and wasted 1st round pick)
Upton 7.8m (prorated for 2020) (0.0)
Teheran 3.3m (-0.9)

The total is just shy of $150 mil.  Total for those players is -4.4 WAR.    It could have been a higher total spent had it not been for the prorated salaries of the shortened season. 

I guarantee some low level peon in the finance department set some form of this on Arte's desk at some point and then ran for the hills as a monte blanc pen with an Angels logo was flung toward him on the way out.  

Is some of this offset by a lot of the other good stuff he did or some of the tremendous bargains Eppler found?  Sure.  Some of it.  But this would have to be a fairly striking optic to the guy cutting the checks.  

Is this worse than how other GM's performed on teams with similar money spent over that time period?  I have no idea but I am sure he was aptly compared to his peers in this regard.  

Billy just wasn't very good at avoiding the truly awful and it cost him his job.  

This is the result of the bargain bin philosophy, which I've been bitching about on here since the Stoneman era... It's also a result of the state of the farm system Eppler inherited. A team with a healthier system wouldn't bother with any of these guys (sans Upton). We have a better system now and can avoid these kinds of contracts, but we also have to avoid falling into the same trap of using the cheap homegrown option who might also suck. 

[tdawg87]

We need pitching, again.

"HEY GAIS WHAT ABOT FRANCISCO LINDOR CHOCOLATE"

I hate all of you so much.

Yes, we need a SS. No, we do not need Lindor. 

[Docwaukee]

On 10/14/2020 at 10:10 AM, AngelsLakersFan said:

This is the result of the bargain bin philosophy, which I've been bitching about on here since the Stoneman era... It's also a result of the state of the farm system Eppler inherited. A team with a healthier system wouldn't bother with any of these guys (sans Upton). We have a better system now and can avoid these kinds of contracts, but we also have to avoid falling into the same trap of using the cheap homegrown option who might also suck. 

If you're going to go bargain basement, you better have that guy in your farm system who's ready to step in if that bargain guy sucks.  Guys like Suarez, Barria, Sandoval and even Canning weren't totally ready to do that yet as replacements for Harvey, Cahill and Teheran.  I'm not sure Rengifo is ready to replace the bargain basement guy who'd take 2b or SS should they go that route.  

You've actually got more mediocre arms as replacements for a bargain basement experiment starter in 2021 than you do MIF.  At least I would make that argument.  If they went with a 2yr deal for a solid vet MIF after they got a starter as opposed to getting a 2nd starter, then I think I'd be ok with that.  Although I am pretty wary about Canning and Heaney staying healthy for 30 starts each.  

We're likely priced out of a guy like Profar because of our other needs.  He's a guy that can play multiple spots and at 28 could be reaching his peak.  

[Inside Pitch]

On 10/12/2020 at 2:54 PM, totdprods said:

The only way I can imagine something like this could have happened would be if Adell kicked some serious ass in his debut - enough to have shown he’s an elite talent that Cleveland just had to have

At which point his value becomes so great the Angels refuse to part with and the financial flexibility he would give them.

[totdprods]

41 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

At which point his value becomes so great the Angels refuse to part with and the financial flexibility he would give them.

Yup - pretty much. If the next GM somehow had another deal in place that was landing a basically a pitching equivalent of Adell, or a cheap, young ace, AND had addressed the rotation with another solid, ‘affordable’ add like Stroman, then I could maybe see them going for it in an Adell-Lindor deal. But it’s really hard to see.

If it was Dombrowski, who can be pretty bold, I could also see Lindor being an option with an intent of him being a one-year rental too. On paper, the Angels should be competitive and Lindor would make a Top 5 AL offense even better - one that could carry a staff with even minor pitching upgrades. 

They could QO Lindor and get a draft pick to recoup some of what they dealt - or if they win a WS, who knows, maybe they use some of that momentum and money to try and extension with Pujols coming off and Upton a year later. If things go really south, they could always flip Lindor midseason too. They wouldn’t get back nearly what they spent, but maybe they’d win a bit in quantity over quality. Maybe they lose a top 25 guy like Adell, but gain back two Top 75 or so guys. That might not be awful depending on the context of other deals, especially with how shaky Adell looked this year. 

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Yup - pretty much. If the next GM somehow had another deal in place that was landing a basically a pitching equivalent of Adell, or a cheap, young ace, AND had addressed the rotation with another solid, ‘affordable’ add like Stroman, then I could maybe see them going for it in an Adell-Lindor deal. But it’s really hard to see.

If it was Dombrowski, who can be pretty bold, I could also see Lindor being an option with an intent of him being a one-year rental too. On paper, the Angels should be competitive and Lindor would make a Top 5 AL offense even better - one that could carry a staff with even minor pitching upgrades. 

They could QO Lindor and get a draft pick to recoup some of what they dealt - or if they win a WS, who knows, maybe they use some of that momentum and money to try and extension with Pujols coming off and Upton a year later. If things go really south, they could always flip Lindor midseason too. They wouldn’t get back nearly what they spent, but maybe they’d win a bit in quantity over quality. Maybe they lose a top 25 guy like Adell, but gain back two Top 75 or so guys. That might not be awful depending on the context of other deals, especially with how shaky Adell looked this year. 

I don't think they can QO lindor if he's traded or am I misinformed on that?  

You're unlikely to recoup the value of what you'd have to trade to get him for any of the alternate scenarios.  

Plus the money.  Even in arb, Lindor is so expensive it would essentially mean we'd have to trade more from the farm to get a pitcher.  The net result would be a decimation of the top of our farm system.  

A trade for Lindor not only sets the farm system back but restricts near future flexibility and if you sign him long term it then restricts payroll from getting what we need.  

It makes so little sense to me that I can't even imagine them doing it, and if they did, I feel like it's about as short-sighted as they could possibly get.  

[Lou]

5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I don't think they can QO lindor if he's traded or am I misinformed on that?  

You are correct.

[gotbeer]

22 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I don't think they can QO lindor if he's traded or am I misinformed on that?  

 

If he is traded before the season starts.  Yes you can QO him.  If he's traded midseason, then no you can't.

[Warfarin]

27 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

If he is traded before the season starts.  Yes you can QO him.  If he's traded midseason, then no you can't.

Yep, this is correct.  If we trade for him before the season starts, we can QO him.

That said, we 100% need pitching.  Lindor would be a luxury, but on a team with Trout, Rendon, etc - we don't need another star offensive player, we need some star pitching.

Go get Bauer.  Find a cheap 2B (should be plenty, Brad Miller would be my pick due to projected low cost and multi-positional versatility) who could either be a starter or a bench player in case Rengifo flops.  Fletcher can be the starting SS.

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, Warfarin said:

Yep, this is correct.  If we trade for him before the season starts, we can QO him.

That said, we 100% need pitching.  Lindor would be a luxury, but on a team with Trout, Rendon, etc - we don't need another star offensive player, we need some star pitching.

Go get Bauer.  Find a cheap 2B (should be plenty, Brad Miller would be my pick due to projected low cost and multi-positional versatility) who could either be a starter or a bench player in case Rengifo flops.  Fletcher can be the starting SS.

I see parallels in Bauer/Cole, and Betts/Lindor, in how this offseason could go. 

If the Angels fall short on Bauer or feel it’d be unwise putting all their eggs in that basket, turning to Lindor could be an alternative, like how they pivoted to Rendon following Cole - instead of going all in on next-best pitching tiers.

We 100% need pitching - I think any Angels fan would agree with that. But the pitching is also quietly better than we realize, and a few savvy moves could make as much of a difference as Bauer, especially with Lindor added to a Top 5 offense. We’re not as dire as we were this time last year for Cole. 

Turning back to the Betts deal as a comp, I could see a third team also being involved in a trade given again the Angels need for pitching. Maybe Joe Musgrove replaces Kenta Maeda and we or Cleveland wind up with him, and a young pitcher like Civale, Plesac, or even McKenzie goes to Pittsburgh or Anaheim or Pittsburgh’s affordable Trevor Williams goes to Cleveland or Anaheim. I could even see Heaney or Bundy (almost assuredly because the Angels have something set with a FA like Stroman or Gausman or some real upside/volume pitching returning) going to Cleveland since they’re still relatively ‘win-now’ and affordable for them, with the Angels taking on a more controlled arm back. Maybe the Indians take a flier on Josh Bell, Bryan Reynolds, Adam Frazier, or Kevin Newman. All of those guys make sense for Cleveland. A host of ‘expendable’ Angels prospects make sense for Pittsburgh - i.e. Thaiss, Adams, Sandoval, Barria, Deveaux, Knowles, Paris, Vera, Blakely. The Marlins also have a stash of young pitching to work with, as does Kansas City and Detroit, though I doubt Cleveland deals within division.

It would call for a blockbuster on par with or greater than the Betts deal, but that’s sort of Dombrowski’s knack, and Arte has a flair for approving the dramatic too. 

It’s not what I’d do. But I think there’s a bigger chance (still small) of the Angels being in on Lindor than most here would anticipate.

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

I see parallels in Bauer/Cole, and Betts/Lindor, in how this offseason could go. 

If the Angels fall short on Bauer or feel it’d be unwise putting all their eggs in that basket, turning to Lindor could be an alternative, like how they pivoted to Rendon following Cole - instead of going all in on next-best pitching tiers.

We 100% need pitching - I think any Angels fan would agree with that. But the pitching is also quietly better than we realize, and a few savvy moves could make as much of a difference as Bauer, especially with Lindor added to a Top 5 offense. We’re not as dire as we were this time last year for Cole. 

Turning back to the Betts deal as a comp, I could see a third team also being involved in a trade given again the Angels need for pitching. Maybe Joe Musgrove replaces Kenta Maeda and we or Cleveland wind up with him, and a young pitcher like Civale, Plesac, or even McKenzie goes to Pittsburgh or Anaheim or Pittsburgh’s affordable Trevor Williams goes to Cleveland or Anaheim. I could even see Heaney or Bundy (almost assuredly because the Angels have something set with a FA like Stroman or Gausman or some real upside/volume pitching returning) going to Cleveland since they’re still relatively ‘win-now’ and affordable for them, with the Angels taking on a more controlled arm back. Maybe the Indians take a flier on Josh Bell, Bryan Reynolds, Adam Frazier, or Kevin Newman. All of those guys make sense for Cleveland. A host of ‘expendable’ Angels prospects make sense for Pittsburgh - i.e. Thaiss, Adams, Sandoval, Barria, Deveaux, Knowles, Paris, Vera, Blakely. The Marlins also have a stash of young pitching to work with, as does Kansas City and Detroit, though I doubt Cleveland deals within division.

It would call for a blockbuster on par with or greater than the Betts deal, but that’s sort of Dombrowski’s knack, and Arte has a flair for approving the dramatic too. 

It’s not what I’d do. But I think there’s a bigger chance (still small) of the Angels being in on Lindor than most here would anticipate.

I think it'll ultimately depend on who we hire as President/GM.

If it's Dombrowski, the odds of swinging a Lindor-type deal go up significantly.

If it is someone from the TB/LAD/OAK regime, then likely not.

My preference would still to be to trade Adell to either DET for one of Manning/Mize (unlikely, since DET isn't near contention) or to CLE for one of their pitchers (much more likely, since CLE is contending and has a desperate need for a young OF).

My motivation isn't to trade Adell because of how he played, but rather, because OF is by far the deepest part of our team when considering both MLB talent and MILB prospects.  Adell is a top 10 prospect who struggled, but he should still fetch a good, young, cheap SP that we so desperately need.  Imagine flipping Adell for someone like Pleasac AND signing Bauer.  We'd have Bauer, Bundy, Pleasac, Heaney, Canning, and Barria as our top 6 rotation pieces.  We could even option Canning to start the year if all of them were healthy.  AND, on top of that, we'd have the Ohtani wild card.  If Ohtani can actually recapture "ace" form, could you imagine having a playoff rotation of Bauer, Ohtani, Bundy, Pleasac?  Our greatest weakness would, essentially overnight, become a huge strength.

TL;DR - flip our most valuable chip from our greatest area of depth (OF) for a player who ameliorates our greatest weakness (SP).

[AngelsLakersFan]

14 hours ago, Dochalo said:

If you're going to go bargain basement, you better have that guy in your farm system who's ready to step in if that bargain guy sucks.  Guys like Suarez, Barria, Sandoval and even Canning weren't totally ready to do that yet as replacements for Harvey, Cahill and Teheran.  I'm not sure Rengifo is ready to replace the bargain basement guy who'd take 2b or SS should they go that route.  

You've actually got more mediocre arms as replacements for a bargain basement experiment starter in 2021 than you do MIF.  At least I would make that argument.  If they went with a 2yr deal for a solid vet MIF after they got a starter as opposed to getting a 2nd starter, then I think I'd be ok with that.  Although I am pretty wary about Canning and Heaney staying healthy for 30 starts each.  

We're likely priced out of a guy like Profar because of our other needs.  He's a guy that can play multiple spots and at 28 could be reaching his peak.  

This is why I think we'll trade for one of the shortstops with 1 year left on their contract (like Lindor but probably not Lindor). It allows us to limit costs, while providing the most depth and giving us an extra year to reevaluate our situation. I think we are more likely to take risks with the rotation because of what you said about the mediocre depth, and because it was defense that failed us as much as anything this season.

I pitched trying to trade with Miami for Starling Marte and Miguel Rojas because they are both on one year contracts and are both good bets to provide at least average production. There will be chances for Rengifo and Adell but it seems like way too high of a risk to count on them as starters next year. 

[totdprods]

Hard to not think of possible scenarios the more I think about this. I will say too, there’s a lot of overlap between the needs and trade pieces between Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Anaheim.

Some good reading: 

• https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/10/offseason-outlook-cleveland-indians-11.html
• https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/10/offseason-outlook-pittsburgh-pirates-11.html

The Indians are in a win-now mode on a tight budget. They need MLB-ready help right now, controlled talent, prospects, and need help virtually across the outfield and infield. Their pitching depth is tremendous.

The Angels need win-now talent and can afford a splash - to a degree. They have some outfield and infield prospects to deal from (not much) as well as some fringe pitching depth, perhaps a young reliever. 

The Pirates are in rough shape across the board. Some of their younger ‘vet’ position players had poor years and relatively low ceilings. They are on a budget. They don’t have anyone that can command truly elite prospect returns. Their best strategy is to essentially focus on flipping talent. Get pieces that could turn into big deadline returns by offering playing time and a low pressure environment.

A three-way deal could make sense. Separate deals between both teams make sense. This isn’t exactly a specific proposal - just a few components that I think balance out...

• Angels trade one of Dylan Bundy is Andrew Heaney and Jo Adell for Francisco Lindor and one of Plesac, McKenzie, or Civale. Perhaps a Rengifo/Jones/Adams type balances it out. Think of it more as Adell for a young elite pitching prospect, and rental Bundy (or a lefty Heaney which they are thin on) for rental Lindor, filled out with an intriguing prospect or two, and Adell’s excess value making up the difference. Angels get impact wins by way of Lindor and lessen his financial impact by including Heaney/Bundy, exchanging their ‘proven’ pitching for a riskier young pitcher with more control. The Indians maintain their win-now momentum by adding a strong arm to an already elite rotation, get Jo Adell, and a prospect or two at an area of need (MIF or OF)
• Angels acquire Joe Musgrove/Jameson Taillon, and perhaps a reliever, for Matt Thaiss, one of Buttrey/Middleton, one of Suarez/Barria/Sandoval, perhaps Deveaux/Knowles/Jackson/Vera/Ramirez/Blakely/Paris. Pittsburgh relievers Burdi, Crick, Santana, Feliz, and Rodriguez all seem plausible.
• The Pirates acquire one or two spare Cleveland outfielders - any one of Zimmer, Naquin, DeShields, Mercado, Santana, Luplow - guys who could step into a Pittsburgh outfield for a chance to rebound with a change of scenery. Cleveland sheds some of these players who could eat up their precious salary in arbitration. Potentially, the Indians or Pirates could also look at deals swapping pitchers. Plesac, Civale, Taillon, Richards, Keller, Musgrove all make sense being discussed in a deal as well. 
• The Indians acquire any combo of cheap, controllable Pirates players who could be of use to them long-term: Kevin Newman (27, MIF, .800 OPS in ‘19), Adam Frazier (29, 2B/OF, career 100 OPS+), Josh Bell (28, 1B, .936 OPS, 37 HR in ‘19), Bryan Reynolds (26, OF, career .820 OPS), Colin Moran (28, 1B/3B, .753 OPS with Pittsburgh), or even Gregory Polanco (29, RF, career .729 OPS). 

Let’s say that perhaps one or both of Stroman/Gausman get offered QO’s. There’s a decent chance this happens, and a decent chance either accepts. Even if not, it could drive up their asking price, delay their timeline of signing, and the Angels could have fewer routes to address their pitching in this situation. Bauer will have big competition. The Angels could forego gaining impact pitching and aim for Lindor. Hard to see other impact pitching available for trade right now. Lindor might be next best thing. 

What the Angels lack in MLB-ready offense for Cleveland can be made up by Pittsburgh’s hitters. Cleveland’s slightly older/more expensive/riskier OF depth that has mixed results could balance out with Pittsburgh’s slightly younger/slightly cheaper/still risky IF depth. Change of scenery for both team’s spare parts ahead of non-tender payroll clean-up. Should the Angels want something more proven in their rotation, they can swap their young pitching for something more stable like Musgrove. Should the Indians not want to eat into their pitching depth too heavily in a deal with a potential rival in the Angels, they can offset it some with Pittsburgh pitching. 

All of the above is certainly beyond the pale, but enough parts of it make sense for it to have some feasibility. The Angels could throw their available money at Lindor, vet FA RPs, bench depth, and lean on acquired pitching via trade, at least two, and maybe with a cheap guy like Smyly or Porcello also signed.

[Angel Oracle]

Assuming Upton continues his resurgence, and Ohtani rebounds enough, they already have enough offense.

They need pitching!  And defense!

But Lindor is too expensive.

[totdprods]

5 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Assuming Upton continues his resurgence, and Ohtani rebounds enough, they already have enough offense.

They need pitching!  And defense!

But Lindor is too expensive.

They need pitching but that doesn’t mean there is enough good pitching available to fill it. 

Lindor is damn good defensively too.

And pitching is also acquired in or around the Lindor deal.

[Hubs]

Knowing what Lindor would cost, I'd rather have Trevor Story and maybe Jon Gray. That fits better with this team, and while it would cost a lot, it would be more years of control, and a better return.

[totdprods]

2 hours ago, Hubs said:

Knowing what Lindor would cost, I'd rather have Trevor Story and maybe Jon Gray. That fits better with this team, and while it would cost a lot, it would be more years of control, and a better return.

Eek...Gray wrapped the year with a balky shoulder and 3 MPH off his fastball, and while Story has one more year of control over Lindor, he also has a .760 OPS away from his Coors OPS of .994...

Think I’ll pass...little too risky on those two, even if they’d cost less and have more control. 

Also not sure Colorado is as motivated to move the likes of those two as a team like Cleveland will be with Lindor and possibly a pitcher.

Edited October 22, 2020 by totdprods