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Could a new Angels GM think about trading Shohei Ohtani?


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To answer the thread question, anyone named Trout is on the table. We won't have an idea until the new GM is hired.

My guess would be no. He's coming off a terrible season so we'd be selling low. Also he isn't making much so it's not like we're losing anything by keeping him. The upside alone is worth it.

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There's an argument to be made that Ohtani is the last Angel you trade. Why? Because his value is unclear. Trout and Rendon are known quantities, while Shohei still has the talent to turn into one of the best--and most unique--superstars in the game, or he could turn into a pretty good DH. I feel less bullish on him than I did two years ago, but the talent is still there.

I suppose if the Angels were offered Wander Franco or MacKenzie Gore it would be hard to say no, but the Rays and Padres are unlikely to do that. More likely a prospect package would max out at about a 55-60 FV prospect with a couple of 40-45s thrown in, and Ohtani is a 70+ talent. You just don't trade guys like that, at least not until you have to (impending free agency) and/or you're sure of what you have.

As far as Shohei's future is concerned, I see four possible scenarios, in decreasing order of preference:

1) Best-case scenario. He turns into a #1 starter and elite bat; think 150-175 IP of 2.50 ERA and 350-400 PA of a 150+ wRC+. We've seen flashes of both (in 2018), just not consistently. This is a 6-8 WAR superstar.

2) He turns into a #2-3 and very good bat, say 3.00-3.50 ERA and 120-130 wRC+, which together makes him a star if healthy. This would be a bit disappointing given the upside, but still a very good player. 4-6 WAR.

3) Elite DH/1B/OF only. Option 1, but bat only. 3-6 WAR, depending upon position and defense.

4) Good DH/1B/OF only. Option 2, but bat only. 2-4 WAR, depending upon position and defense.

Which do I think will happen? No idea. At this point, I think there's roughly even chances of any of the above happening. Meaning, there's a 50-50 chance he makes it as a pitcher, and a 50-50 chance he turns into an elite bat. Or something like that.

 

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30 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

There's an argument to be made that Ohtani is the last Angel you trade. Why? Because his value is unclear. Trout and Rendon are known quantities, while Shohei still has the talent to turn into one of the best--and most unique--superstars in the game, or he could turn into a pretty good DH. I feel less bullish on him than I did two years ago, but the talent is still there.

I suppose if the Angels were offered Wander Franco or MacKenzie Gore it would be hard to say no, but the Rays and Padres are unlikely to do that. More likely a prospect package would max out at about a 55-60 FV prospect with a couple of 40-45s thrown in, and Ohtani is a 70+ talent. You just don't trade guys like that, at least not until you have to (impending free agency) and/or you're sure of what you have.

As far as Shohei's future is concerned, I see four possible scenarios, in decreasing order of preference:

1) Best-case scenario. He turns into a #1 starter and elite bat; think 150-175 IP of 2.50 ERA and 350-400 PA of a 150+ wRC+. We've seen flashes of both (in 2018), just not consistently. This is a 6-8 WAR superstar.

2) He turns into a #2-3 and very good bat, say 3.00-3.50 ERA and 120-130 wRC+, which together makes him a star if healthy. This would be a bit disappointing given the upside, but still a very good player. 4-6 WAR.

3) Elite DH/1B/OF only. Option 1, but bat only. 3-6 WAR, depending upon position and defense.

4) Good DH/1B/OF only. Option 2, but bat only. 2-4 WAR, depending upon position and defense.

Which do I think will happen? No idea. At this point, I think there's roughly even chances of any of the above happening. Meaning, there's a 50-50 chance he makes it as a pitcher, and a 50-50 chance he turns into an elite bat. Or something like that.

 

I think another option might be he takes to being a pitcher only. 

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38 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I think another option might be he takes to being a pitcher only. 

I just don't see the reasoning behind that. There are few injuries that would allow him to pitch but not hit, and he has proven that he can maintain the wear and tear of hitting. I suppose if they felt like they wanted to give him more rest between starts, but even then he'd probably be used as a frequent pinch-hitter.

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3 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I just don't see the reasoning behind that. There are few injuries that would allow him to pitch but not hit, and he has proven that he can maintain the wear and tear of hitting. I suppose if they felt like they wanted to give him more rest between starts, but even then he'd probably be used as a frequent pinch-hitter.

The scenario I picture is if his hitting doesn't rebound, but his arm gets healthy. It's one of several possibilities for sure.

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