Making a six-man rotation work

[Angelsjunky]

Assuming the Angels sign one pitcher, either Gausman or Stroman, and slot him behind Bundy, how would a six-man rotation look, with Ohtani pitching on Sundays? The problem with the six-man rotation is that it--if unadjusted--gives equal number of starts to all six pitchers, even if some are better than others. Meaning, the #6 starter (say, Barria) would get as many starts as the #1 (Bundy or Gausman/Stroman), unless adjustments were made. You want Ohtani to get fewer starts, but then you want to weight the other starts more heavily towards the better pitchers.

My proposed solution is to have a rotating off day, to have one of the starters skipped every so often - usually Barria as the #6, but occasionally one of the others to give extra rest. It may also be that the problem is naturally "solved" through injury, so that if one of the top 6 goes down, their spot can be skipped or filled in as necessary.

But assuming health, here's how the first month could look:

Week 1, Apr 1-3 (Thu-Sat): Bundy, SP, Heaney

Week 2, Apr 4-10 (off Wed): Ohtani, Canning, Barria, off, Bundy, SP, Heaney

Week 3, Apr 11-17 (off Thu): Ohtani, Canning, Barria, Bundy, off, SP, Heaney

Week 4, Apr 18-24: Ohtani, Canning, Barria, Bundy, SP, Heaney, Canning

Week 5, Apr 25-May 1 (off Thu): Ohtani, Bundy, SP, Heaney, off, Canning, Bundy

Total Starts: Bundy 6, SP 5, Heaney 5, Canning 5, Barria 3, Ohtani 4

And so forth. I'd rather see Ohtani's innings limited then him get fewer starts than one per week, although obviously his starts could be limited later on, especially if they were headed to the postseason and wanted him fresh.

Over the course of a full year, this would yield something like 32-33 starts for Bundy, 30-31 for SP, Heaney and Canning, 20-24 for Othani, and 18-20 for Barria. And again, injuries usually happen, so it could be that Barria would get more starts if one of the top four goes down and Sandoval or Suarez fills in. But that would be the basic template, and the point here is just to show how it isn't that hard to make it work - it just requires a bit of finessing. If I can figure it out, certainly Angels management can.

Edited October 1, 2020 by Angelsjunky

[Warfarin]

3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Assuming the Angels sign one pitcher, either Gausman or Stroman, and slot him behind Bundy, how would a six-man rotation look, with Ohtani pitching on Sundays? The problem with the six-man rotation is that it--if unadjusted--gives equal number of starts to all six pitchers, even if some are better than others. Meaning, the #6 starter (say, Barria) would get as many starts as the #1 (Bundy or Gausman/Stroman), unless adjustments were made. You want Ohtani to get fewer starts, but then you want to weight the other starts more heavily towards the better pitchers.

My proposed solution is to have a rotating off day, to have one of the starters skipped every so often - usually Barria as the #6, but occasionally one of the others to give extra rest. It may also be that the problem is naturally "solved" through injury, so that if one of the top 6 goes down, their spot can be skipped or filled in as necessary.

But assuming health, here's how the first month could look:

Week 1, Apr 1-3 (Thu-Sat): Bundy, SP, Heaney

Week 2, Apr 4-10 (off Wed): Ohtani, Canning, Barria, off, Bundy, SP, Heaney

Week 3, Apr 11-17 (off Thu): Ohtani, Canning, Barria, Bundy, off, SP, Heaney,

Week 4, Apr 18-24: Ohtani, Canning, Barria, Bundy, SP, Heaney, Canning

Week 5, Apr 25-May 1 (off Thu): Ohtani, Bundy, SP, Heaney, off, Canning, Bundy

Total Starts: Bundy 6, SP 5, Heaney 5, Canning 5, Barria 3, Ohtani 4

And so forth. I'd rather see Ohtani's innings limited then him get fewer starts than one per week, although obviously his starts could be limited later on, especially if they were headed to the postseason and wanted him fresh.

Over the course of a full year, this would yield something like 32-33 starts for Bundy, 30-31 for SP, Heaney and Canning, 20-24 for Othani, and 18-20 for Barria. And again, injuries usually happen, so it could be that Barria would get more starts if one of the top four goes down and Sandoval or Suarez fills in. But that would be the basic template, and the point here is just to show how it isn't that hard to make it work - it just requires a bit of finessing. If I can figure it out, certainly Angels management can.

My guess is Ohtani's start will be a bit delayed in terms of pitching.  If you look at how few innings he's thrown over the last 2 years, it's very unlikely they'll ask him to throw much beyond, say, 70-80 innings.

They'll probably want him to ramp up a bit later and provide him with some pauses/breaks in the season.  If he somehow pans out and becomes the ace we have so badly wanted, then we'll need him during the stretch run.

[Angelsjunky]

58 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

My guess is Ohtani's start will be a bit delayed in terms of pitching.  If you look at how few innings he's thrown over the last 2 years, it's very unlikely they'll ask him to throw much beyond, say, 70-80 innings.

They'll probably want him to ramp up a bit later and provide him with some pauses/breaks in the season.  If he somehow pans out and becomes the ace we have so badly wanted, then we'll need him during the stretch run.

True, true. A delated start, then pitching once a week, gradually building up strength and confidence. I could see five starts of 3 IP, five of 4 IP, five of 5 IP, and then any remainder of 5-6, with the hopes that he has some left in the tank for the postseason. That would be about 80 IP during the regular season, although I could see them going for 100 if everything looks fine.

[Second Base]

I don't mean to be too off topic, but if the Angels sign only one FA starter, and he isn't Trevor Bauer, I would consider this off-season a failure. I'd like to see them sign two, or sign one and trade for another.

[Angel Oracle]

30 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

True, true. A delated start, then pitching once a week, gradually building up strength and confidence. I could see five starts of 3 IP, five of 4 IP, five of 5 IP, and then any remainder of 5-6, with the hopes that he has some left in the tank for the postseason. That would be about 80 IP during the regular season, although I could see them going for 100 if everything looks fine.

Have Sandoval start off as his replacement after coming out?

[stormngt]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Assuming the Angels sign one pitcher, either Gausman or Stroman, and slot him behind Bundy, how would a six-man rotation look, with Ohtani pitching on Sundays? The problem with the six-man rotation is that it--if unadjusted--gives equal number of starts to all six pitchers, even if some are better than others. Meaning, the #6 starter (say, Barria) would get as many starts as the #1 (Bundy or Gausman/Stroman), unless adjustments were made. You want Ohtani to get fewer starts, but then you want to weight the other starts more heavily towards the better pitchers.

My proposed solution is to have a rotating off day, to have one of the starters skipped every so often - usually Barria as the #6, but occasionally one of the others to give extra rest. It may also be that the problem is naturally "solved" through injury, so that if one of the top 6 goes down, their spot can be skipped or filled in as necessary.

But assuming health, here's how the first month could look:

Week 1, Apr 1-3 (Thu-Sat): Bundy, SP, Heaney

Week 2, Apr 4-10 (off Wed): Ohtani, Canning, Barria, off, Bundy, SP, Heaney

Week 3, Apr 11-17 (off Thu): Ohtani, Canning, Barria, Bundy, off, SP, Heaney

Week 4, Apr 18-24: Ohtani, Canning, Barria, Bundy, SP, Heaney, Canning

Week 5, Apr 25-May 1 (off Thu): Ohtani, Bundy, SP, Heaney, off, Canning, Bundy

Total Starts: Bundy 6, SP 5, Heaney 5, Canning 5, Barria 3, Ohtani 4

And so forth. I'd rather see Ohtani's innings limited then him get fewer starts than one per week, although obviously his starts could be limited later on, especially if they were headed to the postseason and wanted him fresh.

Over the course of a full year, this would yield something like 32-33 starts for Bundy, 30-31 for SP, Heaney and Canning, 20-24 for Othani, and 18-20 for Barria. And again, injuries usually happen, so it could be that Barria would get more starts if one of the top four goes down and Sandoval or Suarez fills in. But that would be the basic template, and the point here is just to show how it isn't that hard to make it work - it just requires a bit of finessing. If I can figure it out, certainly Angels management can.

I like the logic of finding more starts for the better pitchers.  I would just point out if Barria continues to produce 3.6 ERA then I want him getting more starts than Canning or Heaney.

[Blarg]

If the six man rotation is to pander to Ohtani only pitching once a week then it needs to be scrapped. By this time he has to either adapt to pitching in a major league rotation to create consistency for the rest of staff or consider playing the field. 

His once every Sunday schedule did nothing to prevent injury, it did put the Angels in the uncomfortable position of the Salt Lake shuffle to accommodate him. It's time for him to put on an MLB uniform and shed his Japanese ways. Be a true member of the team and not just his team. This us not an unreasonable demand. 

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

If the six man rotation is to pander to Ohtani only pitching once a week then it needs to be scrapped. By this time he has to either adapt to pitching in a major league rotation to create consistency for the rest of staff or consider playing the field. 

His once every Sunday schedule did nothing to prevent injury, it did put the Angels in the uncomfortable position of the Salt Lake shuffle to accommodate him. It's time for him to put on an MLB uniform and shed his Japanese ways. Be a true member of the team and not just his team. This us not an unreasonable demand. 

Part of the purpose of having him pitch once a week was to ensure he gets to DH 3-4 times a week, because his bat is that good. 

Only now, for some reason he forgot how to hit. 

[eligrba4ever]

You can't make the 6 pitcher rotation work, except on a spot basis. Fitting it for one guy ruins the rhythm of 5 others. And it's tough enough to find 5 starters, never mind 6 quality ones at all times. The Angels are the prime example of this.

 

[Angel]

4 hours ago, Blarg said:

If the six man rotation is to pander to Ohtani only pitching once a week then it needs to be scrapped. By this time he has to either adapt to pitching in a major league rotation to create consistency for the rest of staff or consider playing the field. 

His once every Sunday schedule did nothing to prevent injury, it did put the Angels in the uncomfortable position of the Salt Lake shuffle to accommodate him. It's time for him to put on an MLB uniform and shed his Japanese ways. Be a true member of the team and not just his team. This us not an unreasonable demand. 

So the two way dream is dead to you?  The most exciting project in baseball (IMO) should be scrapped???? Why?

C'mon... live a little, not many teams will get an opportunity to do this, ever.  WS rings come and go but players like Ohtani never come.

[Blarg]

He still be a two way player pitching in a five man rotation. 

[Slegnaac]

5 hours ago, Blarg said:

If the six man rotation is to pander to Ohtani only pitching once a week then it needs to be scrapped. By this time he has to either adapt to pitching in a major league rotation to create consistency for the rest of staff or consider playing the field. 

His once every Sunday schedule did nothing to prevent injury, it did put the Angels in the uncomfortable position of the Salt Lake shuffle to accommodate him. It's time for him to put on an MLB uniform and shed his Japanese ways. Be a true member of the team and not just his team. This us not an unreasonable demand. 

Change Demand to Expectation and I agree 100%

[Angelsjunky]

7 hours ago, Second Base said:

I don't mean to be too off topic, but if the Angels sign only one FA starter, and he isn't Trevor Bauer, I would consider this off-season a failure. I'd like to see them sign two, or sign one and trade for another.

I'm going to disagree with you. Let's say they sign Stroman or Gausman AND trade for Musgrove, and then sign McCann and someone like Clippard. Wouldn't that be a pretty good offseason, and only one FA starter?

Even a more realistic scenario like taking out Musgrove and McCann and replacing them with a fringy #4 like Richards and an Avila or Castro...the team is better with Stroman/Gausman, Clippard, Richards, and Avila/Castro.

Edited October 2, 2020 by Angelsjunky

[Angels 1961]

7 hours ago, Second Base said:

I don't mean to be too off topic, but if the Angels sign only one FA starter, and he isn't Trevor Bauer, I would consider this off-season a failure. I'd like to see them sign two, or sign one and trade for another.

Any mention of 6 man rotation Bauer is not coming. Stroman has to be on short list of pitchers u want

[Angelsjunky]

37 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

Any mention of 6 man rotation Bauer is not coming. Stroman has to be on short list of pitchers u want

Bauer wouldn't start every sixth game. See the first post - he'd be in the Bundy slot.

[kevinb]

The problem I see in a 6 man rotation is that you are paying guys like they are pitching in a 5 man rotation. Players wont want to be paid less for pitching less. Players want to be paid more. So you are essentially paying players more for less. Doesn't make sense. Ohtani needs to either figure out how to pitch in a 5 man rotation and stay healthy or move him to the bullpen where he can bat daily and pitch when they need him to, or we can just scrap either the pitching or the hitting all together. He is a unique talent, but we can't bend our team every which way just to maybe make it work. 

[Angels 1961]

4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Bauer wouldn't start every sixth game. See the first post - he'd be in the Bundy slot.

Bauer wants to pitch every 4th day.

[Second Base]

6 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I'm going to disagree with you. Let's say they sign Stroman or Gausman AND trade for Musgrove, and then sign McCann and someone like Clippard. Wouldn't that be a pretty good offseason, and only one FA starter?

Even a more realistic scenario like taking out Musgrove and McCann and replacing them with a fringy #4 like Richards and an Avila or Castro...the team is better with Stroman/Gausman, Clippard, Richards, and Avila/Castro.

I thinks you misunderstood me, or perhaps I didn't communicate clearly. I think the Angels need to bring in more than one starting pitcher, regardless of the avenue. 

I'd be thrilled with Musgrove and Stroman.

[Inside Pitch]

2 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I thinks you misunderstood me, or perhaps I didn't communicate clearly. I think the Angels need to bring in more than one starting pitcher, regardless of the avenue. 

I'd be thrilled with Musgrove and Stroman.

I agree.  Even if they only "need" 1 they should sign two and expect the inevitable injury or poor performance.  Hell.... do the tandem starter thing and save the pen one day per week.

[Inside Pitch]

All bs aside... I'm waiting for a team to do the tandem starter thing if they lack the arms to really optimize their bullpen.  If you have 8 guys that can start and you're throwing four of them in some sort of tandem, you're keeping guys from that third time through the order and maybe you have guys letting it rip more for those shorter outings.  You could more easily manage a 5 or 6 man rotation and if you're keeping them paired, you can alternate who goes 5 innings vs who goes 4 innings to spread those wins around and allow everyone to stack their stats and get their money.

[Second Base]

24 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I agree.  Even if they only "need" 1 they should sign two and expect the inevitable injury or poor performance.  Hell.... do the tandem starter thing and save the pen one day per week.

Yeah, as much pitching as possible. For S and G's, let's say we pencil in Ohtani, Bundy, Heaney, Canning, and Barria as other starting five. Well with Ohtani, that automatically becomes six so now you've thrown Pat Sandoval in there. 

Half the starting rotation at that point is comprised of Canning, Barria and Sandoval. No team with playoff aspirations heads into the season with a collection of borderline rookie back end starters. The only one with any degree of hype coming in was Canning. 

Now let's play nightmare scenario, horrible as it is. Ohtani gets hurt, which has been the constant so far. Then you're looking at Packy Naughton. Maybe Bundy isn't as good. Maybe Barria and Sandoval can't figure it out, then you're digging into Reid Detmers and Jose Suarez. 

Best case scenario is that Ohtani is healthy and an ace, Bundy's breakout is legit, Canning reaches his ceiling as a mid rotation starter, and Barria and Sandoval settle in, while Heaney does his thing. Even at that point, you're still looking at a very average rotation. They wouldn't carry this team, that would be on the offense.

And let's shoot for reality here. Ohtani is healthier, and pretty good, but in order to remain pretty good, he'll need to miss a couple of starts here and there. Bundy's breakout is real. Heaney is average, lots of IP and K's, mixed in with mistakes. And Canning is hot or cold. Barria is the same and so is Sandoval. Young pitchers are like that. Detmers breaks into the rotation towards the middle or end of the year which is a nice boost and we get our first limited looks at Packy Naughton and Chris Rodriguez. All in all, not bad at all, but at the end of the day, it's still a rotation lacking consistency outside of the top three. 

Let's say they get Stroman and Musgrove. We know what to expect there. A couple of be steady mid rotation starters. There's some breakout potential in both, but don't count our eggs the before they hatch. Suddenly, this team doesn't need Canning, Barria or Sandoval to be good. In fact the team would really only need one. The others can fill in as needed but unless they break out, we can store them in AAA. And Detmers has no pressure on him to deliver. If he needs more developmental time, fine and if he doesn't, then this is an extremely dangerous club. 

If you head into a playoff series and the four starters they roll out are a healthy and developed Ohtani (meaning triple digit velocity, ace), Bundy (finally made good on the hype), Stroman and Musgrove, both of which have shown they can dominate on any given night, and if be anyone runs into trouble, they can throw Heaney be at the problem. 

That's the sort of rotation that can carry a team far. And all it costs is 15-20 million a couple of good prospects.

Edited October 2, 2020 by Second Base

[Stradling]

12 hours ago, Kevinb said:

The problem I see in a 6 man rotation is that you are paying guys like they are pitching in a 5 man rotation. Players wont want to be paid less for pitching less. Players want to be paid more. So you are essentially paying players more for less. Doesn't make sense. Ohtani needs to either figure out how to pitch in a 5 man rotation and stay healthy or move him to the bullpen where he can bat daily and pitch when they need him to, or we can just scrap either the pitching or the hitting all together. He is a unique talent, but we can't bend our team every which way just to maybe make it work. 

Read the OP

[Jeff Fletcher]

The Angels have never ever used or planned to use a rotation in which 6 starters started in order every time through. 
 

Think about it: Ohtani actually pitches every 7 days, so in weeks there are no off days, that means you’d actually need 7. 
 

it really isn’t that complex. You have 4 starters who pitch every 5th day. You have one starter who pitches every 7th day. About 2 times a month that creates a need for a 6th, so you use pitchers who can be optioned for those spot starts. 
 

If you want some of the main 4 to get 5 days rest a little more often (which isn’t that unusual), you can use that 6th guy a little more often. 

[Justin]

19 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Think about it:

That's asking a lot, Jeff.