2019 Free Agent Pitchers Review

[IheartLA 392]

Let's review how the top 2019 FA pitchers have turned out in the 1st year of their contracts. Rankings are based on MLBtraderumors. 

1. Cole - $324M/9yrs

2. Strasburg - $245M/7yrs

3. Wheeler - $118M/5yrs

4. Bumgarner - $85M/5yrs

5. Ryu - $80M/4yrs

6. Odorizzi - $17.8M/1yr

7. Keuchel - $55.5M/3yrs

Cole, Wheeler, Ryu, Keuchel have been really good, all with ERAs under 3. Ryu is 2nd in WAR according to baseball reference only behind Bieber and 3rd overall only behind Betts/Bieber. Keuchel has an ERA below 2 and has been amazing. Cole has been lights out with a 1.00ERA since they switched catchers.

Strasburg, Bumgarner have been hurt and Odorizzi was only for 1 year.

Point being is that good pitching is good pitching. The Blue Jays, Yankees, White Sox are ecstatic they spent all that money on those guys. When good quality pitching is out there on the FA market we need to be aggressive. I'm thinking we need to go all out for Trevor Bauer. We can't miss out like we did last offseason. No more Cahills, Harveys, Teherans, or other stopgam gambles. 

 

[Angelsjunky 10,715]

I think they'll be somewhat serious about Bauer, but the problem is that he's the only true #1-2 on the market. All the other guys are #3s or worse. That means the bidding will be fierce and he won't come cheap - probably either 1/$45M or 7-8/$35M AAV. I don't see the Angels paying anyone $45M for a one-year deal, and I don't see them wanting to take on another mega-contract until at least Pujols is gone, if not Upton as well. But we shall see.

[Angel Oracle 14,032]

Gausman, to me anyway, could be another Bundy, needing a good pitching coach to thrive.   He’s been durable, and is still only 30 in 2021.

3 years/$30 million?

Edited September 29, 2020 by Angel Oracle

[IheartLA 392]

Bauer and Tanaka are the only two I want. 

[Junkballer 725]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think they'll be somewhat serious about Bauer, but the problem is that he's the only true #1-2 on the market. All the other guys are #3s or worse. That means the bidding will be fierce and he won't come cheap - probably either 1/$45M or 7-8/$35M AAV. I don't see the Angels paying anyone $45M for a one-year deal, and I don't see them wanting to take on another mega-contract until at least Pujols is gone, if not Upton as well. But we shall see.

This ^^.  And his rumblings about a one year contract are the sort that comes from  a guy that shoots from the hip and shoots again when the wind changes direction, which I think is the case here.

[Warfarin 2,622]

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

Gausman, to me anyway, could be another Bundy, needing a good pitching coach to thrive.   He’s been durable, and is still only 30 in 2021.

3 years/$30 million?

3/30 is reasonable for Gausman and I'd for sure support that.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds 3,799]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think they'll be somewhat serious about Bauer, but the problem is that he's the only true #1-2 on the market. All the other guys are #3s or worse. That means the bidding will be fierce and he won't come cheap - probably either 1/$45M or 7-8/$35M AAV. I don't see the Angels paying anyone $45M for a one-year deal, and I don't see them wanting to take on another mega-contract until at least Pujols is gone, if not Upton as well. But we shall see.

Pujols is here for only 1 more year, so if Arte wants to change the incredibly negative press he has received recently he'll just have to suck up Pujols' contract and do whatever it takes to sign Bauer even if he goes over for 1 year. If he was really concerned about money, why give Eppler an extension just to fire him a few months later?

[Dochalo 25,990]

11 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Pujols is here for only 1 more year, so if Arte wants to change the incredibly negative press he has received recently he'll just have to suck up Pujols' contract and do whatever it takes to sign Bauer even if he goes over for 1 year. If he was really concerned about money, why give Eppler an extension just to fire him a few months later?

because that's a lot less money.  

[Second Base 9,036]

3 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think they'll be somewhat serious about Bauer, but the problem is that he's the only true #1-2 on the market. All the other guys are #3s or worse. That means the bidding will be fierce and he won't come cheap - probably either 1/$45M or 7-8/$35M AAV. I don't see the Angels paying anyone $45M for a one-year deal, and I don't see them wanting to take on another mega-contract until at least Pujols is gone, if not Upton as well. But we shall see.

I think Eppler's successor will use the necessary prospects to acquire top end pitching via trade. 

Edited September 29, 2020 by Second Base

[Ace-Of-Diamonds 3,799]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

because that's a lot less money.  

Arte has to decide if he OK being the butt of the jokes after missing another playoff while having the best player in the world.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds 3,799]

2 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I think Eppler's successor will use the necessary prospects to acquire top end pitching via trade. 

That works for me.

[VariousCrap 2,353]

If Arte wants to win, he is going to have to spend on pitching.  There is no way around that.

Bauer is a must.  This team needs a front of the rotation pitcher.  Another signing of a mid rotation guy would be smart too.

2-3 bullpen arms are must as well.

[VariousCrap 2,353]

Just now, Second Base said:

I think Eppler's successor will use the necessary prospects to acquire top end pitching via trade. 

Who is a top end pitcher that would be available via trade?

 

[VariousCrap 2,353]

Just now, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Arte has to decide if he OK being the butt of the jokes after missing another playoff while having the best player in the world.

It is not just the butt of jokes; it is his place in baseball history. 

Does Arte want to go down in baseball history as the owner who wasted the talent of one of the best players to ever play the game?

[Dochalo 25,990]

21 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Arte has to decide if he OK being the butt of the jokes after missing another playoff while having the best player in the world.

yeah but one thing has nothing to do with the other.  

[Condor1984 5]

50 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

Who is a top end pitcher that would be available via trade?

 

Reexamining Boyd would be something. He looks like another Bundy to me. I have read that Detroit is down on him.

 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds 3,799]

54 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

yeah but one thing has nothing to do with the other.  

Maybe, but it's not gonna stop the criticism from the MLB press. It's been indefensible, he has not made the playoffs 6 straight years, while the teams getting worse every year, do to horrid pitching. 

Edited September 29, 2020 by Ace-Of-Diamonds

[Second Base 9,036]

1 hour ago, VariousCrap said:

Who is a top end pitcher that would be available via trade?

 

I think that question, could probably use it's own thread. Let's just say I wouldn't be opposed to adding payroll and trading prospects for the right target.

[Erstad Grit 2,439]

Stroman and odorizzi would be really nice number 2 type pitchers if we cant land an ace

[VariousCrap 2,353]

31 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Stroman and odorizzi would be really nice number 2 type pitchers if we cant land an ace

 

Those two are huge question marks.  The Angels already have their own huge question mark with Ohtani.  I'm not sure it would be wise to bring on another questions mark.

Of the two, I'd go with Stroman, but that has to be in addition to getting a top of the rotation pitcher.

 

 

[Angelsjunky 10,715]

3 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Gausman, to me anyway, could be another Bundy, needing a good pitching coach to thrive.   He’s been durable, and is still only 30 in 2021.

3 years/$30 million?

He won't go for that cheap, but I also like him and think he's the type of guy Eppler would have gone after.

2 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Pujols is here for only 1 more year, so if Arte wants to change the incredibly negative press he has received recently he'll just have to suck up Pujols' contract and do whatever it takes to sign Bauer even if he goes over for 1 year. If he was really concerned about money, why give Eppler an extension just to fire him a few months later?

As we saw with Cole, "Do whatever it takes" has its limits, and plus players already have their minds made up and just want to leverage other teams to raise the price. Who knows with Bauer. 

As for Eppler, you'd have to ask Arte, but my guess is that Arte doesn't like the results and fired him out of frustration. Or maybe Eppler said, "hang in there - we're about a year away," and Arte said, "you've been saying that for three or four years - I want to win now." Which leads me to...

2 hours ago, Second Base said:

I think Eppler's successor will use the necessary prospects to acquire top end pitching via trade. 

Yeah, I suspect--and fear--this. My guess is that someone like Dombrowski will interview with Arte and impress him with the 2018 WS and a confident rap about trading to win now. And then he'll do it, or try to do it, and we'll be left with an emptied farm system and over-priced aging free agents. 

It doesn't have to be either/or, of course. They've got a ton of depth in OF prospects and a few other pieces to trade, but the problem is that most of them didn't build up the trade value they would have if we had a minor league season. Only Adell and Marsh have the prospect cred to be a centerpiece in a big trade, or some combination of Detmers, Adams, Rodriguez and Jackson. Are we really willing to see a package of Marsh, Rodriguez, and Jackson for an aging Kershaw, Scherzer, Greinke or Archer (to name a few 21-22 free agents that might be available in trade this offseason)? I can see making small to medium trades, and hoping to generate another Bundy, or even trade one of Adell or Marsh for a major league ready pitching prospect. But not the big package, or not yet. A year in the minors could solidify or turn Adell, Marsh, Detmers, Rodriguez, Jackson, Adams, Vera, Paris, Kochanowicz and one or two others into legit 50+ FV prospects.

I'd rather see them keep building the farm and sign the two best starters they can, bolster the bullpen, and go with an above average pitching staff combined with their stellar lineup. The West should be winnable next year without winning 95 games, and it wouldn't take a huge amount of spending or trades to get the team to 90+ wins.

[Jeff Fletcher 7,432]

5 hours ago, IheartLA said:

1. Cole - $324M/9yrs

2. Strasburg - $245M/7yrs

3. Wheeler - $118M/5yrs

Angels tried to get each of these guys. Each turned them down.

So the question then is, as you go down the list, at what point does the risk outweigh the reward? The Angels apparently believed it was after this list.

[Jeff Fletcher 7,432]

2 hours ago, VariousCrap said:

Who is a top end pitcher that would be available via trade?

 

Yeah, this the question I have for all the "We should trade anything to get an ace" people.

Like who?

[Second Base 9,036]

41 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

He won't go for that cheap, but I also like him and think he's the type of guy Eppler would have gone after.

As we saw with Cole, "Do whatever it takes" has its limits, and plus players already have their minds made up and just want to leverage other teams to raise the price. Who knows with Bauer. 

As for Eppler, you'd have to ask Arte, but my guess is that Arte doesn't like the results and fired him out of frustration. Or maybe Eppler said, "hang in there - we're about a year away," and Arte said, "you've been saying that for three or four years - I want to win now." Which leads me to...

Yeah, I suspect--and fear--this. My guess is that someone like Dombrowski will interview with Arte and impress him with the 2018 WS and a confident rap about trading to win now. And then he'll do it, or try to do it, and we'll be left with an emptied farm system and over-priced aging free agents. 

It doesn't have to be either/or, of course. They've got a ton of depth in OF prospects and a few other pieces to trade, but the problem is that most of them didn't build up the trade value they would have if we had a minor league season. Only Adell and Marsh have the prospect cred to be a centerpiece in a big trade, or some combination of Detmers, Adams, Rodriguez and Jackson. Are we really willing to see a package of Marsh, Rodriguez, and Jackson for an aging Kershaw, Scherzer, Greinke or Archer (to name a few 21-22 free agents that might be available in trade this offseason)? I can see making small to medium trades, and hoping to generate another Bundy, or even trade one of Adell or Marsh for a major league ready pitching prospect. But not the big package, or not yet. A year in the minors could solidify or turn Adell, Marsh, Detmers, Rodriguez, Jackson, Adams, Vera, Paris, Kochanowicz and one or two others into legit 50+ FV prospects.

I'd rather see them keep building the farm and sign the two best starters they can, bolster the bullpen, and go with an above average pitching staff combined with their stellar lineup. The West should be winnable next year without winning 95 games, and it wouldn't take a huge amount of spending or trades to get the team to 90+ wins.

I think it's doubtful the Angels will be able to attract any FA SP they need. Like last year, they don't really need just any pitcher, they need a legitimate top of the rotation starter, and probably another mid rotation starter after that. Sounds familiar, right? 

If the Angels payroll is likely 173 million already, they simply don't have the money to be able to afford much. Maybe 20 million. Bauer is probably going to cost 1/40. 

Maybe they can get Stroman, but let's face it, Stroman doesn't put them in playoffs. He helps, but at that point, the real acquisition would be Ohtani, but are we really willing to put the fate of 2021 in Ohtani being healthy? 

It seems like there are three avenues to take toward winning.

1. Everyone returns to health and performs the way they're capable of. And the young you develop into who they're capable of being.

2. Arte increases payroll and the Angels spend their way into contention.

3. The next GM makes some rather bold, yet painful trades.

Edited September 29, 2020 by Second Base

[AngelsLakersFan 9,443]

20 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Angels tried to get each of these guys. Each turned them down.

So the question then is, as you go down the list, at what point does the risk outweigh the reward? The Angels apparently believed it was after this list.

And that is ultimately why Eppler was fired.