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Holy Hell, Trevor Bauer!


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4 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Most I would offer is 4 years/$120 million with a 5th year option.

Take it or leave it.

Minasian needs to act soon, with ST closing in.

 Club option, right?  

4/120 kinda makes me want to puke - so, guess that's probably the right number 🙂

It's an overpay, except our alternatives are too costly - for all the progress in the farm, it's not exactly overflowing with talent ...

 

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This is really, really gay. It's January 11th you fuckin attention whore. Sign with somebody.

🧸🥞👀

Nicely done @John Taylor  

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21 minutes ago, DCAngelsFan said:

 Club option, right?  

4/120 kinda makes me want to puke - so, guess that's probably the right number 🙂

It's an overpay, except our alternatives are too costly - for all the progress in the farm, it's not exactly overflowing with talent ...

 


Right, club option

A friend who keeps up with MLB in total mentioned that 4 years/$128 million with a team option that includes $8 million buyout was as far as they would go.

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1 minute ago, Angel Oracle said:


Right, club option

A friend who keeps up with MLB in total mentioned that 4 years/$128 million with a team option that includes $8 million buyout was as far as they would go.

That sounds about right - he might get more - but I feel like he'd have to get it somewhere else.  And not knowing the club finances in the out years, it *still* might be too much for us to bear.

 

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3 hours ago, Second Base said:

Probably the most detailed summary of Jones' struggle in the upper minors that I've seen. 

The launch angle revolution appears to be losing stream thankfully. Some guys it helps, some it doesn't. It hurt Jones and Ward, helped Thaiss and Walsh.

It's worth trying, but not worth changing everything you've adopted throughout a lifetime of baseball.

I never liked the launch angle approach that removed 2/3rds of the field from play making it a game of over the line. I'd rather watch Rod Carew at bats then any more of the swing out of your shoes only to hit into the shift style baseball. 

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3 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

Do we have any indication on how accurate this has been in the past? Like, has this evaluation proven pretty accurate on what players contracts turn out to be?

Even if people are saying Hendriks was overpaid.  Their number and what he got was pretty close.  

This is actually the first time I've seen this number, so got me.  But in the past, pro media sites like this have been pretty close.  From looking at their numbers, they compare it to players with similar stats, age, etc.  So you know that's what teams are looking at also.  They aren't just going to throw a number out there because the player/agent wants it.  Which is why he's probably not signed yet.

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Maybe the Angels can work with Bauer to write up a deal that works for both. 

He gets a record-breaking salary for a couple seasons, and it's backloaded significantly to allow other acquisitions this year.

Using the 4/$128 as a template..

  • 21: $18m (allowing Angels to spend a bit still for C, SP, maybe RF/RP)
  • 22: $26m (essentially replacing Pujols' obligation)
  • 23: $42m (pulled this number out of thin air, basically $42,000,69 because Bauer is a weirdo)
  • 24: $42m (same)

He breaks a record for highest ever salary, Angels get flexibility this year. 
I'm not savvy enough on how opt-outs or signing bonuses could factor in towards either party beneficially, but perhaps there's room there as well.

Edited by totdprods
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The impression I get (and this is just my own hypothesis) is that Trevor Bauer continues to be a "work in progress" and that he is motivated to be the best possible pitcher he can be.  I imagine that's the case for most guys, but he continues to try new and what might be unconventional methods to maximize his own potential.  I'm thinking that 2020 saw the fruits of his labor. 

I remember reading about how Barry Zito was always reinventing himself, changing his delivery, etc.  I think Bauer is kind of like that - in that he's trying to do everything he can to be a great pitcher and is never quite satisfied with how he's pitching.  He's constantly researching and challenging the status quo of how to do things. 

All of that goes to say that I believe the best of Trevor Bauer may be yet to come and any team that signs him will benefit greatly.  It's just a gut feeling.  It's all I've got.

I like his confidence.  I like the drive he has to improve.  I like his swagger.  AND the dude has proven he can flat out pitch.  Any team would be lucky to have him, IMO.

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Can someone explain why a guy who has pitched like a top 5 pitcher the last two seasons he wasn't injured (ankle and back issues most of 2019) would take money that would be comparable to what Zack Wheeler got last year? 

Anything less than 5/150 and you're either kidding yourselves or banking too heavily on a down market (possible, but doubtful). 

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1 hour ago, Pancake Bear said:

Can someone explain why a guy who has pitched like a top 5 pitcher the last two seasons he wasn't injured (ankle and back issues most of 2019) would take money that would be comparable to what Zack Wheeler got last year? 

Anything less than 5/150 and you're either kidding yourselves or banking too heavily on a down market (possible, but doubtful). 

The 4 years/$128 million with buyout of team option idea puts him somewhere around $10-15 million short of the $150 million but for only 4 years.

If exercising the option, it’s 5 years/$160 million.

Edited by Angel Oracle
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23 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

The 4 years/$128 million with buyout of team option idea puts him somewhere around $10-15 million short of the $150 million but for only 4 years.

If exercising the option, it’s 5 years/$160 million.

Per Fletcher, iirc, players don't really care about team options. It's mostly a benefit to the team. What I'm saying is Bauer almost certainly laughs off anything less than 150 guaranteed. I feel like 200 is a strong possibility. And why not?

Compare his last 90 starts going into free agency to Cole and Stras - this is *including* an awful 2019 when basically the whole season was meh because of injuries. He still compares really favorably over that time to two guys who got 7 and 9 years at 30+m aav. 

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I feel like we're putting too much emphasis on 2019, but if it was due to injury, he's probably a lot closer to 2018 and, to some degree, 2020. If that's the case, he's probably worth *at least* 32-35 for 6 (192-210m total). 

Maybe the Angels can't afford that, but if so we need to stop crying about not being able to get an ace. 

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At this point, i don't give 2 shits how much money Bauer gets. I know he will sign with some other team, because he does not fit into the Angels budget. And no, Arte is not going to be busting his budget. Not with the current unknown baseball economics. And with the money needed for the stadium improvements in the near future.  Ain't happening McGee!  They need to get 2 affordable starting pitchers  that can keep the team in the game for 5-6 innings consistently. Then add affordable , catcher, & rp:  and if there is still room in the budget, get a 4th of'er who can play all 3 of spots. And try to keep some money for a possible trade deadline deal. Because we have little payroll flexibility [ again ] we can't have Champagne with a Ripple budget. Hell, i am  not sure we even have the money left to even fill the holes i just addressed.

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26 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

At this point, i don't give 2 shits how much money Bauer gets. I know he will sign with some other team, because he does not fit into the Angels budget. And no, Arte is not going to be busting his budget. Not with the current unknown baseball economics. And with the money needed for the stadium improvements in the near future.  Ain't happening McGee!  They need to get 2 affordable starting pitchers  that can keep the team in the game for 5-6 innings consistently. Then add affordable , catcher, & rp:  and if there is still room in the budget, get a 4th of'er who can play all 3 of spots. And try to keep some money for a possible trade deadline deal. Because we have little payroll flexibility [ again ] we can't have Champagne with a Ripple budget. Hell, i am  not sure we even have the money left to even fill the holes i just addressed.

Disagree strongly.

They don't *need* two starting pitchers. They could use two - so could most teams - but it isn't a need.

They don't *need* a catcher.

They definitely don't need a fourth outfielder. That's a luxury.

What they *need* is a legit TOR pitcher. They haven't had that in years. They won't be successful until that changes. That's something worth overspending for. We were willing to overspend for one last season, nothing should have changed this year.

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I get the sense that AAV is very important to Bauer and he has never to my knowledge said anything about term of contract (other than the one-year stuff).  It would be interesting to see how he would respond to a 3year/40m-ish AAV offer backloaded like 30m/40m/50m.  With anyone else in his position it would be a ridiculous thought, as he would be leaving a lot of money on the table if injury or performance dropoff precluded a subsequent large contract at age 32, however, he obviously is a different kind of guy.  From his one-year contract musings, his choice of agent, a tunnel vision kind of self assurance, he may think differently about term than conventional wisdom would hold.  A high AAV contract satisfies the perceived need to one-up Gerrit Cole in one form being that theres no way he can one-up him in a single contract.  The idea sound a lot more like something the Dodgers would do than the Angels, but it does take a lot of risk off the board albeit at a high price.    Its probably completely unrealistic not only on his side but it would peg the Angels as the CBT threshold for 3 years, but he just strikes me as someone who might do the seemingly unwise thing if it resonates with his own perspective and it intrigues me whether it is something he would consider by the Angels or another team.

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