Holy Hell, Trevor Bauer!

[Hubs]

I love the attitude and I got roasted earlier this year while questioning whether or not the Angels had enough attitude.

The contract he's going to command will not be a 1 year deal. He said that a few years back about his arbitration deals, we don't know with Free Agency what kind of deal he's commanding.

No way a pitcher turns down 200M. He's in line for a contract that pays him somewhere between what Max Scherzer got and what Strasburg got.

And even if he says he wants an opt-out, or two opt-outs, he's still worth it. Prepare for 32M per over 7.

He won't go to the Padres as I'm not sure he and Clevinger are still close. The Trash talk was just fun and games but it may have gotten nasty.

Dodgers have a full rotationa and an expensive one with David Price back, along with Buehler and Urias getting to Arbitration and of course Kershaw.

 

[Angelsjunky]

4 hours ago, RendZone said:

No one is going to give him $40M per. 

 

1 hour ago, stormngt said:

40 million a year?

Yeah, for three years, his age 30-32 seasons. They don't have to risk his mid-30s, so should be getting the three best seasons of the hypothetical 7-year deal he could get if he wanted it.

Last year Strasburg got 7/$245, or $35 AAV - and that's for age 31-37. Strasburg has a better track record, but has also never been as good as Bauer this year. I'd say their market value is roughly similar. Cole got 9/$324, or $36M a year, but had a better resume than either pitcher and was younger - but that is mainly represented in the contract length. I have no doubt that Bauer can get 7 years if he wants it.

Now Strasburg was over-paid, even by today's standards. He's a very good pitcher, but not quite in the elite. From 2017-19 he was 6th in fWAR with 14.0 and 12th in ERA at 3.15, so probably a top 10 pitcher but not top 5. Similar to Bauer.

So if Bauer could get $30-35M on a 5-8 year contract, I don't see why he couldn't get $36-40M on a 1-4 year contract. There are probably quite a few GMs that would go for 1/$45M, 2/$85M, 3/$120M or 4/$150M.

[kevinb]

There is as close to 0% as you can possibly get that this guy isn't going to sign the biggest deal he possibly could. He is not signing a year year deal or a 3 year deal. Why would he throw away over a hundred million dollars. No one is signing him as a free agent at 33 or 34 to a 30 milion dollar contract. Get all the money and all the years you can now. This is your payday kid you've earned it. 

[Claude]

5 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

 

Yeah, for three years, his age 30-32 seasons. They don't have to risk his mid-30s, so should be getting the three best seasons of the hypothetical 7-year deal he could get if he wanted it.

Last year Strasburg got 7/$245, or $35 AAV - and that's for age 31-37. Strasburg has a better track record, but has also never been as good as Bauer this year. I'd say their market value is roughly similar. Cole got 9/$324, or $36M a year, but had a better resume than either pitcher and was younger - but that is mainly represented in the contract length. I have no doubt that Bauer can get 7 years if he wants it.

Now Strasburg was over-paid, even by today's standards. He's a very good pitcher, but not quite in the elite. From 2017-19 he was 6th in fWAR with 14.0 and 12th in ERA at 3.15, so probably a top 10 pitcher but not top 5. Similar to Bauer.

So if Bauer could get $30-35M on a 5-8 year contract, I don't see why he couldn't get $36-40M on a 1-4 year contract. There are probably quite a few GMs that would go for 1/$45M, 2/$85M, 3/$120M or 4/$150M.

If the owners didn’t have to go through a pandemic year prior maybe someone would consider it but with a new CBA pending and the lost revenue coupled with his questionable personality he has a lot going against him.

Edited September 24, 2020 by RendZone

[gotbeer]

19 hours ago, Blarg said:

I'm going to make a not so bold prediction that Trevor Bauer is not signing with the Angels but from now until he does sign with another team, the Angels will be the frontrunners to sign him, only to have him chose the other team in the end.

Fixed.

[yk9001]

3 hours ago, RendZone said:

If the owners didn’t have to go through a pandemic year prior maybe someone would consider it but with a new CBA pending and the lost revenue coupled with his questionable personality he has a lot going against him.

Please. 

These teams are literally printing presses for money. 

 

https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/SB-Blogs/Breaking-News/2020/09/MLB-Turner.aspx?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTmpVeE16ZzFZV1poWVdVdyIsInQiOiJYa3lWWDE4d29OcTlsQ0NZc1U1MlB0TW96c3FETHgrQkpxdENYMlFndkk5cVZDRFdGVU50NlFNYXRtNU1xRmk4WWZORDdFaEN5aEIzdk1SNHRoa2RDQT09In0%3D

[Claude]

42 minutes ago, yk9001 said:

Please. 

These teams are literally printing presses for money. 

 

https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/SB-Blogs/Breaking-News/2020/09/MLB-Turner.aspx?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTmpVeE16ZzFZV1poWVdVdyIsInQiOiJYa3lWWDE4d29OcTlsQ0NZc1U1MlB0TW96c3FETHgrQkpxdENYMlFndkk5cVZDRFdGVU50NlFNYXRtNU1xRmk4WWZORDdFaEN5aEIzdk1SNHRoa2RDQT09In0%3D

Then why does Arte or any team for that matter give a hoot about the threshold. Money should never be an issue. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 9/24/2020 at 4:56 AM, Warfarin said:

Sign him for 6/175, or something along those lines, and backload the deal so that it ramps up after Pujols and Upton's contracts expire

He is going want more per year than Cole. Why? Because in his mind, Fuck Cole.

Edited September 25, 2020 by Ace-Of-Diamonds

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 9/24/2020 at 5:53 AM, jordan said:

Also, I’m really curious if Bauer sticks with his 1yr deal plan when teams start offering him 6/$150,000,000. 

Do Better, signed Bauer's agent.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 9/24/2020 at 12:00 PM, tdawg87 said:

If he wins the Cy Young award he could very much end up with 3/120. The amount per year will be more significant if he takes a shorter deal.

Regardless, Arte needs to be all over him if he's only wanting 3-4 years. 

Especially after the negative press he has been seeing lately...

[Warfarin]

15 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

He is going want more pee year than Cole. Why? Because in his mind, Fuck Cole.

He can want it, but he will not get it.  He isn't as dominant, and with the pandemic wrecking havoc on financials, he has no shot.

[m0nkey]

So did he turn a corner and is he going to be permanently good for a while or is this a random 11 game sample?

[Vlad27Trout27]

The only knock on Bauer, and the amin reason i don't feel like he's worth 25-30 mil and more. is the fact, how even his ERA, Fip and xFip are.

Era: 1.73

FIP: 2.87

xFip: 3.25

These are actually really good numbers, But the difference between each is concern. This tells me he's been lucky thru the season, he could easily have an era close to his xfip. Which would still be a solid 2, but not an ace. 

Basically if your going to offer him over 30 mil, its going be over priced and a risk. While 20-25 mil will be where teams might get fair amount of value for the price. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

9 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

The only knock on Bauer, and the amin reason i don't feel like he's worth 25-30 mil and more. is the fact, how even his ERA, Fip and xFip are.

Era: 1.73

FIP: 2.87

xFip: 3.25

These are actually really good numbers, But the difference between each is concern. This tells me he's been lucky thru the season, he could easily have an era close to his xfip. Which would still be a solid 2, but not an ace. 

Basically if your going to offer him over 30 mil, its going be over priced and a risk. While 20-25 mil will be where teams might get fair amount of value for the price. 

You can try and low ball him, but someone is going to offer him much more. He's the best of the 2021 class, and everyone is going to want quality pitching. You can offer him $25M/yr, but his agent already said no to that sort of offer. Who ever lands Trevor will be over paying him by definition. Just as the Yankees overpaid for Cole. If 1 team is willing to pay more than any other team is willing to spend, that is the very definition of overpaying....

[Angel]

So we'll have the most salary tied up in two players in baseball history and one of the most expensive and lopsided payrolls ever.  I mean, if you still can't win a WS after that what good are these huge contracts hampering the rest of the team?  I feel like a big contract is the anti-thesis to what this club needs right now.  Everything, every gain we've seen has been grown here, few pitchers let alone players come here and succeed.  Last thing Arte needs to do is be re-enabled (assuming he changed his mind this season).  This is our chance to show him you can't buy a ring, you really can't... He can finally learn that teams are grown from the inside out not the outside in.  This is about principle and saving our future.  Don't be like the Dodgers, be like the Rays.

[Vlad27Trout27]

5 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

You can try and low ball him, but someone is going to offer him much more. He's the best of the 2021 class, and everyone is going to want quality pitching. You can offer him $25M/yr, but his agent already said no to that sort of offer. Who ever lands Trevor will be over paying him by definition. Just as the Yankees overpaid for Cole. If 1 team is willing to pay more than any other team is willing to spend, that is the very definition of overpaying....

That's but I'm saying, if he's going cost over 25 mil, I'm perfectly fine having another team overpaying for him. I still think we can find solid value, by not spending 25+ on one guy.

[TooCool]

If he actually comes here, let's face it. He's going to suck and get injured asap.

[jordan]

8 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Do Better, signed Bauer's agent.

You do have a point. 

[jordan]

1 minute ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

just repeated what his agent when a tweet to her suggesting 3yr. $85M

Oh gotcha. After a few drinks I thought you said “do better, sign Bauer’s agent.”  She would be nice to watch. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

2 hours ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

That's but I'm saying, if he's going cost over 25 mil, I'm perfectly fine having another team overpaying for him. I still think we can find solid value, by not spending 25+ on one guy.

we just disagree.

[Stradling]

 

[floplag]

25 minutes ago, Stradling said:

 

Jump on this one kids ... i dont know why but i think he actually wants to be here, hes not the type that wants to be another kog in the yankee machine, i think he would rather stick it to them. 
Probably wishful thinking but, yeah. 
The real question is can we even really afford him... we would have to decimate the tax to do everything we need to do but it should balance after Albert drops off so. 

[eligrba]

Honestly, I think he becomes a Yankee. He's trolling to increase his Yankee contract.

[Junkballer]

He's been posting tweets directed towards potential suitors, even Baltimore.  And he's left the door open for Cincy.  He seems to want to be adored by fans in several of them.

[ScottT]

1 hour ago, Junkballer said:

He's been posting tweets directed towards potential suitors, even Baltimore.  And he's left the door open for Cincy.  He seems to want to be adored by fans in several of them.

He is the biggest attention whore in baseball