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So Trout is the AL MVP, right?


Dtwncbad

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Trout's dWAR is ridiculous. 

Did he really go from a 0.2 to a -4.4 defensive player in his age 28 season? Of course not.

Adam Dunn had -5.2 dWAR one season. As of three years ago, the second worst was -3.9.  

I think a couple of his teammates have contributed to the number. As we saw earlier in tonight's game... and a few times with Adell. He's playing next to RF that haven't played a lot of RF, much less RF with Trout in CF

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11 minutes ago, Game 6 said:

I saw him at -1.1 dWAR on BR. Where is the -4.4 dWAR? 

Either way, I don't get it statistically. But I have watched every game and Mike Trout has not looked like Mike Trout defensively. Don't know what number that means but I do think it is a thing. And yeah, it has a lot to do with who he is playing with - Taylor Ward tonight is a good example.

In a full season it would be -4.4 WAR

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Imagine we're on game 120 - there's 40ish games left, and the time that MVPs really stand out. Whether we like it or not, I'm guessing that many voters still weight the season towards the end. As I said up-thread, my guess is that most weigh their vote in rough thirds: advanced metrics; traditional stats; and intangibles - which includes the stretch run/contention, star power, and defense.

For Trout to win the MVP, I think he'll have to be significantly ahead in advanced metrics (WAR, OPS+, wRC+), and at or near the top in some of the traditional stats (HR, RBI, Runs, etc). He's got some "intangibles cred" through his superstar power, but unless the Angels win 90% of their remaining games, he'll be behind in that category.

Now if somehow Trout powered the Angels to that 8th seed, I think he'd win the MVP handily. But I think that is rather unlikely.

Edited by Angelsjunky
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Choosing an MVP in all sports has always been a complicated decision. The definition of 'valuable' doesn't necessarily translate to best player. 

Valuable also means a player who is most valuable to his team. A player who elevates those around him while still putting up great personal numbers. 

In other sports the debate gets very nuanced But because baseball is so stats oriented it often does come down to numbers comparisons. 

At some point the fact that Trout has never led his team even into the lower end of championship contention may turn voters off. There also may be a fatigue stage where voters feel they've rewarded Trout so often that they want to focus on what other great players are doing.

Unless Trout has numbers so superior to the closest competitors I have a feeling that we will see a different winner. 

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4 hours ago, Game 6 said:

I don’t know the proper score so far, maybe  a -1.1 dWAR is correct. Maybe not. It certainly is correct based on their metrics.

I do know, based on what I’ve seen in watching all 40 games Trout has played CF, is that he is not playing well in the field. He is not playing defensively as well as he has in the past.

In a normal season 40 games is only into mid-May and by the end of September the poor play in Apil/May becomes nothing more than a footnote.

2020 is not normal. It is  Abby-Normal.

 

We know Adell isn’t fit to be a center fielder but is Marsh supposed to be?

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On 9/12/2020 at 7:47 AM, Jeff Fletcher said:

I haven’t looked yet. It’s too early. 

Last night I set up the spreadsheet, using pretty much the same ingredients I always use.

A lot can still change (since there is still a lot, percentage wise, of the season left) but as of right now Trout has a pretty good chance of getting my vote. 

So you don't think I'm a homer, I used this same system the last time I voted, in 2018, and voted for Betts over Trout. I also voted Cabrera over Trout 2013 (although the system was slightly different back then). I voted for Trout in 2014 and 2016.

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