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Blown Saves- A useless “stat”


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3 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Let me try to explain it and do not over think it!

According to fan graphs the average team wins 86% of their games.  

They Angel's have had 18 save opportunities.  They have won only 11.  That is a winning percentage of 61.1%  

Had the Angel's won 86% instead of 61% they would have won 15.48 games is not 11.  That is 4.38 game difference.

The analysis was to compare the Angels record if we had a league average bullpen.

Holds is not part of the analysis.  It takes into accounts both holds and save situations in which we either win or lose.

The opposing bullpens are already taken into consideration because I was using the league average. There is no need to compare their bullpens.  Constant was the league average.

Ok, now do the Astros and the other teams ahead of us.  If you aren’t going to count holds then what is the point?   Hold is the exact opposite of a blown save.  

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1 minute ago, Stradling said:

Also you can get a blown save in the 6th.

That I did not know.   I thought a save situation was when leading after 6 innings.  I guess I have to look at how many of our recorded save opportunities were before the 7th inning.

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3 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Ok, now do the Astros and the other teams ahead of us.  If you aren’t going to count holds then what is the point?   Hold is the exact opposite of a blown save.  

I expect the teams ahead of us to play to the league average.  Since they are the better teams you could assess they should be better than league average.

However if you are so intent to prove my analysis off than by all means breakdown every teams wins in save opportunities.  You tell me if their winning percentage is above or below the league average of 86%.

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16 hours ago, Stradling said:

There is not a stat that exists that means less than blown saves.  

Fans rant and rave about blown saves yet at the same time blown saves tell us very little about what actually happened.  All we know is that we had a lead after 5 innings, then for at least the rest of a half inning we no longer had the lead.  

We have 12 blown saves this year.  

In those 12 games we are 5-6.  

Basically our wining percentage in games with a blown save is much higher than in games where we don’t have a blown save.  

the blown save is very stupid.  I don't think I've paid attention to it for years.  The 'hold' isn't a sanctioned stat by mlb even though people keep track of it now.  

I prefer to use WPA as indicator of what actually happened.  Or how they performed with leverage included.  We have the second worst WPA in baseball (Astros are worse).  There are also a couple stats called SD and MD or shutdown and meltdown.  They are individual performances that lead to a WPA of greater than or equal to 0.06 or less than or equal to -0.06.  

Again, this is a stat that can't be used to predict future performance.  It only tells us what actually happened.  The Angels lead the league in MD (meltdowns) and we are one of two teams with more meltdowns than shutdowns.  

Our pen WAR is actually 11th in baseball because our FIP is much lower than the era but it's context neutral.  Bad defense and innings are a contributor to that though.  Reliever WAR is pretty worthless in my opinion.  Another thing that can contribute to a mismatch of what actually happened vs. what should have happened (in my humble opinion) is mismanagement.  Using the wrong guys in the wrong spots.  

 

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4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Another thing that can contribute to a mismatch of what actually happened vs. what should have happened (in my humble opinion) is mismanagement.  Using the wrong guys in the wrong spots.  

But, we have a Genius!?!  .... A statistical guru in tune with the modern ways...  I know this is true because I read it here.

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1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

the blown save is very stupid.  I don't think I've paid attention to it for years.  The 'hold' isn't a sanctioned stat by mlb even though people keep track of it now.  

I prefer to use WPA as indicator of what actually happened.  Or how they performed with leverage included.  We have the second worst WPA in baseball (Astros are worse).  There are also a couple stats called SD and MD or shutdown and meltdown.  They are individual performances that lead to a WPA of greater than or equal to 0.06 or less than or equal to -0.06.  

Again, this is a stat that can't be used to predict future performance.  It only tells us what actually happened.  The Angels lead the league in MD (meltdowns) and we are one of two teams with more meltdowns than shutdowns.  

Our pen WAR is actually 11th in baseball because our FIP is much lower than the era but it's context neutral.  Bad defense and innings are a contributor to that though.  Reliever WAR is pretty worthless in my opinion.  Another thing that can contribute to a mismatch of what actually happened vs. what should have happened (in my humble opinion) is mismanagement.  Using the wrong guys in the wrong spots.  

 

I do not think any stat predicts the future.  It only explains the past.

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12 hours ago, stormngt said:

I do not think any stat predicts the future.  It only explains the past.

nothing predicts the future.  Some stats are better at giving you an indication of what is more likely to happen and how that can help you win.  

and a lot of stats don't explain the past.  at all.  many tell you what should have happened.  not what actually did.  

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1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

nothing predicts the future.  Some stats are better at giving you an indication of what is more likely to happen and how that can help you win.  

and a lot of stats don't explain the past.  at all.  many tell you what should have happened.  not what actually did.  

No argument 

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