Blown Saves- A useless “stat”

[Stradling]

There is not a stat that exists that means less than blown saves.  

Fans rant and rave about blown saves yet at the same time blown saves tell us very little about what actually happened.  All we know is that we had a lead after 5 innings, then for at least the rest of a half inning we no longer had the lead.  

We have 12 blown saves this year.  

In those 12 games we are 5-6.  

Basically our wining percentage in games with a blown save is much higher than in games where we don’t have a blown save.  

[Dtwncbad]

The only stat more meaningless than blown saves is saves.

[Stradling]

Just now, Dtwncbad said:

The only stat more meaningless than blown saves is saves.

At least with saves and wins we know the outcome of the game. 

[Dtwncbad]

5 minutes ago, Stradling said:

At least with saves and wins we know the outcome of the game. 

You are right.  I almost had a good point.

We just witnessed a blown sage.

Edited September 8, 2020 by Dtwncbad

[failos]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

At least with saves and wins we know the outcome of the game. 

And at least with blown saves we know who blew the game.

[Stradling]

2 hours ago, failos said:

And at least with blown saves we know who blew the game.

No we don’t. 

[Jason]

I think it only matters in reference to a bullpen pitcher that has been given the designation of "closer". I think wins and losses is an overrated stat too as they do not accurately tell you how the pitcher performed.  Hell, the pitcher with the blown save can easily get the win  

[AngelsFaninGA]

It's a good indicator of which crappy reliever we direct our ire at, regardless of win or loss. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

7 hours ago, Stradling said:

Basically our wining percentage in games with a blown save is much higher than in games where we don’t have a blown save.  

That just means that we have been in a better position to win in games where we blew a lead than in games where we didn't. In other words we are more likely to blow a lead and win than we are to have a lead at all.

[m0nkey]

I don’t like it because it lumps in hold opportunities too from a guy who wouldn’t have “saved” the game. 
 

If Noe Ramirez blows a 2 run lead in the 6th, that counts as a blown save, but if he gets out of it, it’s only categorized as a hold. 

[Angel Oracle]

It’s probably best to gauge each reliever, instead of as a group.

Each reliever should be gauged based on a combination of ERA, inherited runners scoring %, saves %, Ks/BBs ratio, and WHIP.

Edited September 8, 2020 by Angel Oracle

[eligrba]

5 hours ago, failos said:

And at least with blown saves we know who blew the game.

Obviously Joe Maddon is leading the league in blown saves. Who is second?

[stormngt]

9 hours ago, Stradling said:

There is not a stat that exists that means less than blown saves.  

Fans rant and rave about blown saves yet at the same time blown saves tell us very little about what actually happened.  All we know is that we had a lead after 5 innings, then for at least the rest of a half inning we no longer had the lead.  

We have 12 blown saves this year.  

In those 12 games we are 5-6.  

Basically our wining percentage in games with a blown save is much higher than in games where we don’t have a blown save.  

If you have the lead after 6 innings you should win the game!  The blown save stat is meaningless regarding the 5 games we won.  However it's important regarding the 6 games we lost.  That should be 6 wins instead we have 6 losses.

Turn those 6 losses to wins and we are sitting ahead of both wildcard teams and in 2nd place in the West.  And 3 games ahead of the A's for first place.

Granted we cant expect to win every game while leading after 6 innings.  However a good bullpen should win over 85% of the games.  

85% of 11 save opportunities  (5 wins and 6 losses) is 9.3 wins.  

Add 3 more wins to the Angel's Nd we are a game and half our of the playoffs behind the Yankees or Astros.

[eaterfan]

8 minutes ago, stormngt said:

If you have the lead after 6 innings you should win the game!  The blown save stat is meaningless regarding the 5 games we won.  However it's important regarding the 6 games we lost.  That should be 6 wins instead we have 6 losses.

Turn those 6 losses to wins and we are sitting ahead of both wildcard teams and in 2nd place in the West.  And 3 games ahead of the A's for first place.

Granted we cant expect to win every game while leading after 6 innings.  However a good bullpen should win over 85% of the games.  

85% of 11 save opportunities  (5 wins and 6 losses) is 9.3 wins.  

Add 3 more wins to the Angel's Nd we are a game and half our of the playoffs behind the Yankees or Astros.

Is this true? And even if true, you are not counting the games where we have a lead after 6 and don't blow a save. We didn't have 11 save opportunities, we've probably had many more than that.

[stormngt]

2 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

Is this true?

Look up the best users and their save and blown save percentages. 

Then look up their winning percentage after leading after 6.

Edited September 9, 2020 by stormngt

[stormngt]

7 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

Is this true? And even if true, you are not counting the games where we have a lead after 6 and don't blow a save. We didn't have 11 save opportunities, we've probably had many more than that.

Fair point that is a flaw in my methodology.  I need to add up saves plus blow saves.  Thenook at how many games we should gave won.

We have 7 saves this year and 11 blown saves.  That is 18 save opportunities.   86% of 18 is 15.4 games.  

Fan graphs said the average teams wins 86.5% of their games after leading after 6 innings.  

We lost 6 games in blown saves.  Therefore we should have between almost three more wins with just an average bullpen.  

Add three wins to this team and we are a game and half behind the yankees.  A half a game behind the Astros (one of our blown save losses is against the Astros) and ahead of Seattle.

 

[Claude]

All that really matters is the standings. We could have 20 saves this season and still miss the playoffs. 

[Stradling]

43 minutes ago, stormngt said:

If you have the lead after 6 innings you should win the game!  The blown save stat is meaningless regarding the 5 games we won.  However it's important regarding the 6 games we lost.  That should be 6 wins instead we have 6 losses.

Turn those 6 losses to wins and we are sitting ahead of both wildcard teams and in 2nd place in the West.  And 3 games ahead of the A's for first place.

Granted we cant expect to win every game while leading after 6 innings.  However a good bullpen should win over 85% of the games.  

85% of 11 save opportunities  (5 wins and 6 losses) is 9.3 wins.  

Add 3 more wins to the Angel's Nd we are a game and half our of the playoffs behind the Yankees or Astros.

Ok then if we win every blown save then so does every other team.  Once you do that we aren’t leading the wild card anymore. 

[stormngt]

35 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Ok then if we win every blown save then so does every other team.  Once you do that we aren’t leading the wild card anymore. 

No!  Your not paying attention.  I said the average team (per fan games) wins 86% of their games when leading after 7 innings.

If the Angel's won 86% of their games when leading after 7 innings we would have won 3 more games.  Putting us in great position for the playoffs.

[Stradling]

Just now, stormngt said:

No!  Your not paying attention.  I said the average team (per fan games) wins 86% of their games when leading after 7 innings.

If the Angel's won 86% of their games when leading after 7 innings we would have won 3 more games.  Putting us in great position for the playoffs.

Ok, so now go look at the teams we are chasing and give them 86% of their blown saves back as wins.  And once again, as has been pointed out we are only counting blown saves which we have won nearly half of them.  We aren’t counting our actual holds.  

[Lou]

We needed to win more games.

[eligrba]

1 hour ago, stormngt said:

Look up the best users and their save and blown save percentages. 

Then look up their winning percentage after leading after 6.

Way too much work. Someone just me the answer so I can disagree.

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, eligrba said:

Way too much work. Someone just me the answer so I can disagree.

Also you can get a blown save in the 6th.

[stormngt]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

Ok, so now go look at the teams we are chasing and give them 86% of their blown saves back as wins.  And once again, as has been pointed out we are only counting blown saves which we have won nearly half of them.  We aren’t counting our actual 

Let me try to explain it and do not over think it!

According to fan graphs the average team wins 86% of their games.  

They Angel's have had 18 save opportunities.  They have won only 11.  That is a winning percentage of 61.1%  

Had the Angel's won 86% instead of 61% they would have won 15.48 games is not 11.  That is 4.38 game difference.

The analysis was to compare the Angels record if we had a league average bullpen.

Holds is not part of the analysis.  It takes into accounts both holds and save situations in which we either win or lose.

The opposing bullpens are already taken into consideration because I was using the league average. There is no need to compare their bullpens.  Constant was the league average.

[eligrba]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

Also you can get a blown save in the 6th.

What about getting blown to save the 6th?