OC Register: Angels Q&A: How they got here and where they go next

[AngelsWin.com]

The trade deadline has passed and the playoffs are now all but mathematically out of reach – insert “Dumb and Dumber” meme – for the Angels, who are 12-24 with 24 games to go in the season.

We asked you on Twitter for the questions, and many of them were the same larger topics, about how the Angels got here and where they go now, and specifically about the immediate plans for General Manager Billy Eppler and shortstop Andrelton Simmons.

Considering the franchise’s relatively critical condition, we’re giving you more in-depth answers on the big questions, instead of short answers to a lot of little ones. We’ll start with the most fundamental question of them all.

Why do we (stink)?— @cnkp1002

Although etiquette forces me to replace the word this reader actually used, you know the crux of the question. We took an in-depth look last week at the circumstances that led the Angels here, but there is a three-point, shorter version.

First and most important, the Angels farm system deteriorated. Baseball America ranked the Angels’ system fourth in 2007, and by 2010 it was 26th. It perked up to the middle of the pack from 2011-13 — Mike Trout was included in ’11 and ’12 — but from 2014 to ’17 it ranked last three times and 27th once.

Second, Trout arrived. Obviously that is a blessing, but when Trout’s presence coincides perfectly with a deteriorated farm system, it puts the Angels in an awkward spot.

They still managed to win in 2014 and 2015, despite the poor farm system. By 2016 – when Eppler took over – the farm system still was awful, and Trout had ascended from very good to generational. That means you can’t rebuild the system by trading him or by trading everyone but him, because the latter would have intentionally wasted a couple years of his prime. It also would have given them no chance to re-sign him.

Third, in consecutive years the Angels had spent huge money on contracts for Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton, and by around 2016 it was clear neither of those had worked as they’d hoped. That likely created a reluctance from owner Arte Moreno to go really big in free agency unless the circumstances were just right, and they usually aren’t.

Add all that up: The Angels couldn’t strip down the big-league team to rebuild the farm system, had no farm system to trade from to improve the big-league team, and were reluctant to spent the type of money to rebuild it through free agency (which usually doesn’t work anyway).

So here they are.

The Angels have been trying to rebuild without tearing it down for the last 5 years or so. Look at what the White Sox have done in the same timeframe – they got rid of everyone, and now have the most exciting young team in baseball. Shouldn’t the Angels blow this thing up now? — @garyprohaska

If you want the Angels to “get rid of everyone,” that has to include Trout, and that’s a whole different discussion than it was two or three years ago.

Trout now has a no-trade clause and he’s owed another $360 million for the next 10 seasons. So you have to find a team that Trout wants to go to, and that team has to be able to afford him, and it has to be willing to give up enough talent for it to make sense for the Angels. Those are a lot of tight requirements.

If the Angels wanted to go that direction, the optimal time to do it would have been before the 2019 season, and even then there’s no guarantee they’d have been able to get back enough talent to make trading a Hall of Famer palatable.

What is your read on the GM position re-sign or go in a different direction?— @DennisHartnet10

Unless the Angels already extended Eppler and didn’t tell anyone (which happens), his contract expires at the end of the season. When someone has a contract, the question is whether he’s done poorly enough to be fired. But when a contract is finished, it’s whether he’s done well enough to be extended. Those are different standards.

It’s solely up to Moreno whether Eppler stays or goes, but when he was asked in spring training what needed to happen for Eppler to get an extension, Moreno said flatly the Angels needed to win, for everyone’s sake.

“As a group, we need to win,” Moreno said. “I probably should fire myself.”

Do you think the plan is to give (Andrelton) Simmons a (qualifying offer) or extension since they didn’t trade him?— @baseballchick

The Angels traded away Tommy La Stella and Jason Castro for modest returns, in part because they get nothing if those players leave as free agents. Simmons, obviously, was different, because they didn’t trade him. Simmons is making $15 million this year, and the qualifying offer figure is likely to be something just under $18 million.

Simmons is about to turn 31, so getting him back on a one-year deal at that price wouldn’t be the worst thing. Perhaps he’d be overpaid, but it would be for only one year. And if Simmons rejected it, the Angels would get a draft pick as compensation when he signed elsewhere. Attaching a draft pick to a free agent can also reduce other teams’ interest in him, which could make him cheaper if the Angels wanted to re-sign him later in the offseason.

So, yes, I do believe there’s a chance the Angels make him a qualifying offer. I don’t believe they would sign him to an extension, because no player this close to free agency is going to give up the chance to see what the open market has for him.

What starters are realistic for next season? — @MJM2378

The free-agent starting pitcher market is pretty thin this winter. Trevor Bauer is clearly the best, with Marcus Stroman, James Paxton, Jake Odorizzi and Robbie Ray among the next tier, and three of them have been hurt this year. There are also lots of guys like Jose Quintana, Chris Archer, Mike Minor and Rick Porcello who are sometimes pretty good and sometimes pretty bad.

On the trade market, the Angels could take a run a pitcher like Alex Cobb, Danny Duffy, Matthew Boyd or Yusei Kikuchi. Again, no sure things there.

Do you think there is a pitching development problem within the Angels system? — @_JacobCisneros

As you glean from the previous answer, the solution to the Angels’ pitching issues isn’t likely to come from someone they add in the winter. They are going to have to get more out of the pitchers they have developed, which they haven’t done well lately.

Since 2012, the only homegrown pitchers to have a season of 150 innings with an ERA under 4.00 have been Jered Weaver (3), Garrett Richards (2) and Matt Shoemaker (1).

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No one has done it since 2016, homegrown or otherwise.

Somewhere in the scouting-drafting-development chain there’s been a problem, or more likely a lot of little problems. Probably some bad luck with injuries too.

When the Angels are good again consistently, it won’t be because they signed Bauer or some free agent. It will be because they figured out how to get the most out of guys like Shohei Ohtani, Griffin Canning, Patrick Sandoval and Reid Detmers.

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[Angel Oracle]

Personally, Arte should exceed the tax threshold for 2021 only.   Then after 2021, $24 million (Pujols) gets freed from the tax threshold amount.   There’s no penalties, outside of a small percentage of the overage.

Then once 2022 is done, another $21 million (Upton) thankfully is freed up.

This time Arte, do it right.   Beef up the scouting and development (bring in Logan White), and no more big FA contracts!

We want long term success, not what has been there since 2010 (4 winning seasons only).

[Claude]

2 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Personally, Arte should exceed the tax threshold for 2021 only.   Then after 2021, $24 million (Pujols) gets freed from the tax threshold amount.   There’s no penalties, outside of a small percentage of the overage.

Then once 2022 is done, another $21 million (Upton) thankfully is freed up.

This time Arte, do it right.   Beef up the scouting and development (bring in Logan White), and no more big FA contracts!

We want long term success, not what has been there since 2010 (4 winning seasons only).

Arte is not going to do that to Pujols. With Upton, it is what it is. He’ll show up every now and then but mostly disappoint. Ohtani is a frickin mess that better fix himself. The team can’t afford to carry him just because he’s the famous two way guy from Japan. If Ohtani shows up next season and plays like he’s playing now they need to quit f’n around with him and scrap the whole thing and designate him for assignment. 

These three players really shit the bed this season. If they show up next season and continue playing like this then the question for next year’s postseason hunt is already answered no matter how we pitch. 
 

[Jeff Fletcher]

56 minutes ago, RendZone said:

. If Ohtani shows up next season and plays like he’s playing now they need to quit f’n around with him and scrap the whole thing and designate him for assignment. 

You seem to forget they still aren’t paying him very much. His upside is still waaaaaaaaaaaaay more than his salary. 

[Claude]

12 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

You seem to forget they still aren’t paying him very much. His upside is still waaaaaaaaaaaaay more than his salary. 

Jeff he needs to get it together. They jumped through a lot of hoops to get him here. They basically let him make his own schedule. He needs to stop thinking every pitch is going to hit him. 

[tdawg87]

Lol

[AngelsLakersFan]

14 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

You seem to forget they still aren’t paying him very much. His upside is still waaaaaaaaaaaaay more than his salary. 

Ignore RendZone, he's a fuckin' moron.

I think your analysis of the recent history of the organization is accurate, this season itself deserves a little more context though. This season has been played under strange circumstances not likely to be seen again, and as bad as the team has looked their record based on base runs would have them at .500. The fact that they have under performed their base runs by 17 runs (~2 wins), and their pythagorean record by an additional 38 runs (~4 wins) means they've pissed away 16% of the season losing games they should've won. We can pin that on bad luck but I generally find such huge disparities are the results of assorted mismanagements on the field and in the front office.

[Angelsjunky]

Jeff'

4 hours ago, AngelsWin.com said:

Do you think there is a pitching development problem within the Angels system? — @_JacobCisneros

As you glean from the previous answer, the solution to the Angels’ pitching issues isn’t likely to come from someone they add in the winter. They are going to have to get more out of the pitchers they have developed, which they haven’t done well lately.

...

When the Angels are good again consistently, it won’t be because they signed Bauer or some free agent. It will be because they figured out how to get the most out of guys like Shohei Ohtani, Griffin Canning, Patrick Sandoval and Reid Detmers.

This, in my mind, is the most crucial part of Jeff's excellent replies. The Angels' chance to fix the rotation from the outside resided in Gerrit Cole--and even he alone likely wouldn't have done it (although would have helped enormously). None of the free agents scream "the answer," although adding a couple would help (I would also add Gausman as an interesting option, Jeff).

But the scary--but, in a way, relieving--thing is that the changes that need to happen, need to happen from within. Ohtani still has enormous ability; Bundy and Heaney are solid; Canning and Sandoval should settle into being #3-4s; and Barria may be a decent #4-5. Of course the problem is that most of those guys A) haven't fulfilled their potential in a consistent way and B) are more the type of guys you want to see at the end of your rotation, or as depth pieces.

It is the next wave that could yield higher upside: Detmers should be at least another Canning, and hopefully adjust more quickly to the majors, and Chris Rodriguez, Jose Soriano, Hector Yan, and Jack Kochanowicz all have good upside, with Stiward Aquino, Garret Stallings, Oliver Ortega, Robinson Pina, Aaron Hernandez, etc being possibly useful pitchers eventually. Some of these guys have to actually fulfill their potential. But it might take two or three years.

Which is why I'm currently thinking Eppler is gone. If he's honest with Arte, he'll say something like "We have some pitching talent, and the lineup should be good for years to come, but the pitching probably be championship caliber until 2023-24." I don't think that will sit well with Arte, and if he brings in a new GM, we might see a massive shake-up.

Edited September 1, 2020 by Angelsjunky

[Brandon]

DFA’ing Ohtani with the small payroll and what he can produce is straight up moronic.

The shit some of you come up with here.

[eligrba]

2 hours ago, RendZone said:

If Ohtani shows up next season and plays like he’s playing now they need to quit f’n around with him and scrap the whole thing and designate him for assignment. 

You are Q.....aren’t you.

[Claude]

3 minutes ago, eligrba said:

You are Q.....aren’t you.

Look I’m a fan of Ohtani but if he can’t pitch or stay in the box next season he won’t be very fun to watch. 

[eligrba]

3 minutes ago, RendZone said:

Look I’m a fan of Ohtani but if he can’t pitch or stay in the box next season he won’t be very fun to watch. 

Like I’ve said, I think his arm injury is affecting his swing.

[Claude]

6 minutes ago, eligrba said:

Like I’ve said, I think his arm injury is affecting his swing.

I’m hoping you’re right. He’s a huge part of the what they’re trying to do. He was supposed to be our Ace pitcher and another .900 ops guy in the lineup. Man I hope he figures it out.

[eligrba]

10 minutes ago, RendZone said:

I’m hoping you’re right. He’s a huge part of the what they’re trying to do. He was supposed to be our Ace pitcher and another .900 ops guy in the lineup. Man I hope he figures it out.

Compare his right hand when he swings while staying in the box to when he is bailing out of the box. It might be nothing and I am probably imaging things; his hand–eye coordination is amazing, but his inability to stay in the box is not because he is scared. It probably hurts when he stays in the box and swings. 

[Claude]

7 minutes ago, eligrba said:

Compare his right hand when he swings while staying in the box to when he is bailing out of the box. It might be nothing and I am probably imaging things; his hand–eye coordination is amazing, but his inability to stay in the box is not because he is scared. It probably hurts when he stays in the box and swings. 

Interesting observation. He definitely looks uncomfortable. I watched some video of his at bats in Japan and he wasn’t backing out of the box against righties or lefties. It’s something that’s he developed here. They need to fix it or it will compromise his MLB future. 

[ukyah]

4 hours ago, RendZone said:

Jeff he needs to get it together. They jumped through a lot of hoops to get him here. They basically let him make his own schedule. He needs to stop thinking every pitch is going to hit him. 

this is what tweaks people. we all know ohtani needs to get it together, but you didn't say that. you said the angels need to release him if he doesn't and that's absurd.

[ukyah]

3 hours ago, Brandon said:

DFA’ing Ohtani with the small payroll and what he can produce is straight up moronic.

The shit some of you come up with here.

no. that's a one man show.

[Claude]

21 minutes ago, ukyah said:

this is what tweaks people. we all know ohtani needs to get it together, but you didn't say that. you said the angels need to release him if he doesn't and that's absurd.

So you’re saying that if it turns out that he can’t pitch because of discomfort and if he can’t fix the yips at the plate he’s still worth keeping? He will be a negative war player at that point if that happens. I hope he can rebound but there’s no way in hell I would keep him around if he doesn’t. It’s counterproductive. I think people are still starry eyed about his rookie season which was great but that guy might not ever return. They have to be prepared for that. 

Edited September 2, 2020 by RendZone

[ukyah]

2 hours ago, RendZone said:

So you’re saying that if it turns out that he can’t pitch because of discomfort and if he can’t fix the yips at the plate he’s still worth keeping? He will be a negative war player at that point if that happens. I hope he can rebound but there’s no way in hell I would keep him around if he doesn’t. It’s counterproductive. I think people are still starry eyed about his rookie season which was great but that guy might not ever return. They have to be prepared for that. 

yeah, let's get rid of the 26 year old 2018 rookie of the year who's making 650,000 because he's sucking while he's still coming back from being hurt. nevermind the fact he did things in his brief career that nobody had ever done. he obviously will be a negative WAR player from now on, and it's time for the angels to get serious about acquiring players who don't suck.

what a joke.