Playing for Next Year and Beyond - Some Ideas

[totdprods]

13 minutes ago, floplag said:

Career 3.97... lets see where that ends up before we start calling him an ace. 

The Best Pitcher In Baseball* had a 3.22 ERA through his age 28 season and ~190 starts before signing for $325m and 9 years. 

Bauer is at 4.04 through his age 28 and ~190 starts. 

Other notable stats through that similar time frame:

• Cole vs. Bauer:
• H9: 7.8 vs. 8.1
• HR9: 0.9 vs. 1.1
• BB9: 2.4 vs. 3.5
• K9: 10.1 vs. 9.5

Cole is almost assuredly a step above Bauer and a better pitcher - but Bauer hasn’t been far behind him. I’m not expecting Bauer to suddenly become the next Gerrit Cole, but there’s plenty of reason to think he could be very good for a while and is taking another step in his development, much like Cole did around the same time in his career. 

[totdprods]

On 8/19/2020 at 1:35 AM, mymerlincat said:

Just because we turned one former Orioles pitcher around doesn't mean Gausman is all of a sudden going to be a TOR starter here.  I'd certainly we don't go that route.

It is kinda funny that Bundy got better, Arrieta got better, and Gausman got better (at least in Atlanta if I recall) after leaving Baltimore. 

But yeah, not particularly anymore excited over someone like Gausman than I would have been when we signed Teheran, Harvey, or Cahill. I’d expect and hope for #4-#5 production, with a good chance of being disappointed, while hoping they’d have an up year and put up #3ish stats.

[Lou]

On 8/18/2020 at 9:58 PM, ten ocho recon scout said:

but not the multi hit guy we're so used to.

Trout had multi-games in 25.4% of the games he played in 2019.

This year he's at 23.8%.

Not much of a difference. 

[Angelsjunky]

Gausman is better than those guys.

[floplag]

55 minutes ago, totdprods said:

The Best Pitcher In Baseball* had a 3.22 ERA through his age 28 season and ~190 starts before signing for $325m and 9 years. 

Bauer is at 4.04 through his age 28 and ~190 starts. 

Other notable stats through that similar time frame:

• Cole vs. Bauer:
• H9: 7.8 vs. 8.1
• HR9: 0.9 vs. 1.1
• BB9: 2.4 vs. 3.5
• K9: 10.1 vs. 9.5

Cole is almost assuredly a step above Bauer and a better pitcher - but Bauer hasn’t been far behind him. I’m not expecting Bauer to suddenly become the next Gerrit Cole, but there’s plenty of reason to think he could be very good for a while and is taking another step in his development, much like Cole did around the same time in his career. 

AS you say, a step below, thats the only point i was making not that he was bad or anything i would love to have the guy hes just not in that #1 rung class, but then few are. 

[Angel Oracle]

I could go for signing both Bauer and Gausman, if Arte is willing to go over the tax threshold once in 2021 (which shouldn't cost him anything of note).

They need talent, and they especially need a durable and solid starter like Bauer.   That he may only want one year deals makes it even better; no long-term commitment and as long as he's solid, continue to pay him well each season.     The long term contracts for FAs need to stop for several years.

 

This stat is truly sad.    From 2016-2019 cumulative, there have been only FIVE individual seasons where a Halos pitcher went over 138 innings.   How many other MLB teams saw that few?

That needs to stop NOW.    That's why it's imperative to bring in another durable starter to go with Bundy.   It's going to be at least 2022, if not 2023, before Canning, Sandoval, and Detmers can get to 150 innings.  Heaney has done it ONCE after 2015.

   

Edited August 20, 2020 by Angel Oracle

[AngelStew43]

If he files for free agency, we need Bauer.  And a couple more.  If Cleveland moves Clevenger and Plesac, we could use both of them as well.  

The starting pitching is not fun to watch.  They get mugged every single night. 

[angelsnationtalk]

20 hours ago, floplag said:

How do we know he has eyes on Realmuto?  I havent seen or read anything on that?  

I don't know. Just going off the assumption he wants to spend big money on another bat like he always does.

[totdprods]

I always wonder why anyone at this point wants to see Eppler active in free agency. To almost any degree, he’s been pretty awful there. 

He at least trades well. We haven’t really gotten burned by a trade. I don’t think he’s moved a single legitimate prospect since Newcomb virtually on Day One, and that worked our pretty well for us. 

I think it’s time for Billy to do what he does well - trade. It’s time orchestrate a big trade or two, finally loosening the grip on some prospects that will make a difference on our return, and land good, controlled, young, cheap talent. It’s going to cost us a couple painful names, but we have a good core and significant pitching depth at this point to sustain it. Note I didn’t say good pitching depth - just depth. We can afford to part with one or even two of Marsh/Adell/Adams/Goodwin or one of Canning/Sandoval/Suarez/Barria, and guys like Rengifo, Thaiss, Jones, Jackson are relatively expendable and can contribute some value in a deal.

The lack of a minor league season is also hiding the fact that we *do* have a pretty significant wave of arms on the horizon. Yan, Detmers, Stallings, Seminaris, Soriano, Hernandez, Rodriguez, Criswell, Ortega, Brady, Wantz, Warren, Chatham, Pina, Molina, Duensing, Tyler, Peek, etc...lots of arms drafted the last few years and most of them would have in A+/AA right now, some pushing AAA and MLB depth. They may not be huge impact but a couple of these guys should become decent relievers or 4/5 types to replace someone like Barria or the current production of Suarez.

[Angel Oracle]

That’s why it’s imperative to have a lengthened Fall League and a whole 2021 season.

[floplag]

4 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I don't know. Just going off the assumption he wants to spend big money on another bat like he always does.

I think hes tried to get more than bats and adjusted to what he could get.
By all accounts we never really had a shot at Cole for example, so he improved where he could and shifted to Rendon.
Fill holes how you can, eventually you fill them all, lol 

[TroutCron]

On 8/19/2020 at 10:46 AM, floplag said:

i think the idea of a true #1 ace type guy might be unrealistic, how many 30M contracts can one team actually support?
I would go the other way, good not great type guys.  With our lineup we dont really need guys with sub 2 ERA.
I would look at guys like Bauer, Stroman type guys

The lineup looked dynamic on paper but when you have Upton at under .100 and Ohtani under .200 the length of the lineup has been shortened considerably. There are really only four guys who are hitting. 
This team has had the same problems for too many years, the inability to develop their own pitching. I think it is time for a complete front office overhaul. The Angels need the proper Baseball people to make organizational decisions. It starts with Carpino and hiring new blood for GM, Scouting and development and Minor League Director.  

 

 

 

[floplag]

20 hours ago, TroutCron said:

The lineup looked dynamic on paper but when you have Upton at under .100 and Ohtani under .200 the length of the lineup has been shortened considerably. There are really only four guys who are hitting. 
This team has had the same problems for too many years, the inability to develop their own pitching. I think it is time for a complete front office overhaul. The Angels need the proper Baseball people to make organizational decisions. It starts with Carpino and hiring new blood for GM, Scouting and development and Minor League Director.  

 

 

 

Its easy to blame the front office, but im not sure its accurate.
#1 drafting mid round every year isnt going to bring any obvious choice or sure bets.  We havent gotten lucky in that regard, but then again few have if were talking about elite level ace type pitchers.   How the Dodgers pulled both Bueller and May from late rounds or later in the first is a truly staggering achievement. 
What we likely should have done was trade Trout two years ago and tank like everyone else, but i actually respect the front office for not doing either of those things.   Unfortunately it hasnt translated for us.  At the end of the day the players have to produce, and ours for the most part havent. 

[TroutCron]

The Angels need to be a bigger force in Latin America. The same teams seem to dominate the market, the Yankees, Rays, Jays, Nats and Dodgers. The Angels need to come up with their Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna, Wander Franco and Luis Robert. Sign some young pitchers from the Dominican, Venezuela, and others, who show significant upside. Unfortunately, Arte doesn’t seem to want to spend the money on scouting these areas. 
Again, I say gut the front office and the Scouting and Player Development departments and hire a new GM from one of the successful organizations. Right now this team is probably 2-3 years from competing. 

[Angel Oracle]

28 minutes ago, TroutCron said:

The Angels need to be a bigger force in Latin America. The same teams seem to dominate the market, the Yankees, Rays, Jays, Nats and Dodgers. The Angels need to come up with their Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna, Wander Franco and Luis Robert. Sign some young pitchers from the Dominican, Venezuela, and others, who show significant upside. Unfortunately, Arte doesn’t seem to want to spend the money on scouting these areas. 
Again, I say gut the front office and the Scouting and Player Development departments and hire a new GM from one of the successful organizations. Right now this team is probably 2-3 years from competing. 

They have improved there, but there's still work to be done, especially in the pitching area.     Scouting probably does need some change, and it wouldn't hurt to look at someone for GM like a Logan White, who is one of the best at scouting in MLB and could do for this franchise what Stoneman did for it (plus not be afraid to make the occasional strategic trade).