The Official 2020 MLB Amateur Draft Thread (June 10th & 11th)

[Chuck]

Ranking the top two HS arms in the draft between Mick Abel and Jared Kelley.

Fastball: Kelley and Abel have reached similar peak velocities, both getting up to the 99 mph range at various times, but Kelley gets the edge here because his fastball velocity is more consistently in the upper 90s. The Texan also has exceptional feel to spot his fastball where he wants. EDGE: Kelley.

Breaking Ball: Abel gets the nod here, because his low-80s slider was voted the best overall breaking pitch in the high school class by scouting directors on our preseason best tools list. Abel’s slider is consistently sharp with good depth and tilt, while the development of Kelley’s breaking ball is one of his bigger questions he faces. EDGE: Abel

Changeup: Both Kelley and Abel have changeups that stack up among the best in the class, though Kelley’s takes a very slight edge here. The pitch sits in the low 80s with excellent diving life, and he throws the pitch with impressive arm speed and has advanced feel to consistently locate the offering at the bottom of the zone. EDGE: Kelley

Control: Both Kelley and Abel are regarded as two of the better strike-throwers in the class, but scouting directors voted that Abel had better command, and for that he gets the edge here. Consistently landing his entire arsenal is the another area of separation in this category. EDGE: Abel

X Factor: Current physicality is perhaps the biggest difference between Kelley and Abel. The former is close to physically maxed out at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds and already possesses a pro-ready frame. Scouts believe Kelley has the durability to handle a five-day workload. Abel is much lankier at 6-foot-5, 180 pounds, with more room for added strength gains in the future. While he added weight over the offseason, his frame suggests more room for future physical development. This could benefit either pitcher depending on team preference. Some clubs want physical prep players, while others might prefer to dream on what Abel could look like in several years. EDGE: Draw.

Scout's take on Abel: “I’m enamored with this one. I love him. I think he’s got a chance to be really good. He has now stuff, up to 96-97 (mph), breaking balls, projection, delivery . . . Front-of-the-rotation ceiling.”

Scout's take on Kelley: “He is a man amongst boys . . . At the Area Codes he was just toying with guys . . . The last guy who I saw who could pitch fastball/changeup like that was Chris Paddack, and you saw how quick he got to the big leagues—and Kelley has better stuff than Paddack in high school.”

[Angels in 2030]

If we pick Detmers, then 3-4 hours from now i'm going to start beating the drum that he's the steal of this years draft and will be a star.  Of course, i have absolutely no basis/knowledge whatsoever to back that up; and honestly i'm going with that same thought no matter whoever we choose lol (unless we go Catcher).

[SoWhat]

According to Keith Law the hot name that’s been attached to the Angels all morning is Detmers. Ugh, I really hope they go with high ceiling arm like Abel or Kelley 

[Chuck]

2 minutes ago, SoWhat said:

According to Keith Law the hot name that’s been attached to the Angels all morning is Detmers. Ugh, I really hope they go with high ceiling arm like Abel or Kelley 

I wouldn't say ugh! Detmers is pretty damn good.

Here's a comparison between Detmers and Crochet. 

Fastball: This is likely the biggest gap between the two, with Crochet having double-plus fastball potential with a heater that explodes out of his hand and gets up 100 mph at its best. That is high-end fastball velocity from a lefthander that is seldom seen. Former South Florida lefty Shane McClanahan, now in the Rays’ system, also hit 100 mph prior to the 2018 draft. Detmers has much fringier fastball velocity and typically sits in the low 90s. EDGE: Crochet

Breaking Balls: Consistency with a breaking ball gives Detmers the edge here. His easy plus curveball has big depth and shape, and while Crochet’s slider has plus potential as well, he gets to those 60-grade pitches less frequently than Detmers. The big break and low-70s velocity on Detmers’ curve give him a unique look. EDGE: Detmers

Changeup: Scouts have said both Detmers and Crochet have changeups that show above-average potential, so this category is a push. EDGE: Draw

Control: While Crochet wins by a wide margin in the fastball category, Detmers is the clear favorite here and stacks up well against every other pitcher in the nation. He has a long track record of throwing strikes and walked fewer than 2.5 batters per nine innings in 2019 and 2020. Double-plus control isn’t a stretch for Detmers. EDGE: Detmers

X Factor: Another key difference between the two southpaws is rotation track record. Detmers has 25 starts and impressive performance in the Atlantic Coast Conference on his résumé, in addition to a strong summer with USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team in 2019. He also earns plaudits for his competitive makeup. Meanwhile, Crochet has just 13 college starts and most of those came as a freshman and sophomore, when he made more relief appearances than starts overall. EDGE: Detmers

Scout's take on Detmers: “He’s going to pitch as long as he wants to . . . Huge courage, huge compete tool, very unaffected by any environment. Strike-thrower, makes big pitches, not scared . . . I don’t even look at his stuff—they don’t hit him."

Scout's take on Crochet: “His fastball is absolutely electric . . . Big, tall lefty with some angle on it. It was 95-96 (mph) every pitch with some action on it . . . His fastball is absolutely explosive."

[Lou]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

I mean, no college pitcher from 2019 made his debut last year, none from 2018. From 2017 it's just Kyle Wright from the Braves.

So it's likely a minimum of 2 seasons before the guy we pick at #10 debuts. Likely Not until 2023. He's not going to help immediately. From 2016 AJ Puk, Cal Quantrill, Justin Dunn, Eric Lauer have debuted. None have been in more than a few games except Lauer and first round sandwich pick Dakota Hudson. (Anthony Kay from the Sandwich round also debuted).

Going back to 2015, the best college arm to debut is a Legit MLB ace, Walker Buehler, taken 24th. He made his debut in the 2018 season, so roughly 2.5-3 years after he was drafted. Aaron Nola and Kyle Freeland are legit MLB starters from the 1st round in 2014, as is Jon Gray from the 2013 draft.

Going into later rounds, the quickest I've seen a college arm debut would be the Angels own Griffin Canning, who debuted in 2019 after being drafted in the 2nd round in 2017.

Are Lacey, Hancock, Meyer, Dietmers, going to move as quick as Canning? And don't the Angels have good quality starters lower in their organization now?

 

Best post of the thread. 

[BTH]

The dream would be Meyer falling to 10, but that's not happening. I'd go with either Detmers or Hassell. Even though they have a lot of outfielders, it seems like they do tend to develop outfielders well. I have a suspicion that they take Ed Howard, which I would not be thrilled with at all.

[Vlad27Trout27]

1 hour ago, Fourts said:

For specific player, i'd take the HS arm Abel (assuming Meyer off the board).  He looks the part and a potential special player.  Otherwise any other P really -- i don't care if it's a safe pick or high upside.  Just No to a catcher at #10.  High upside HS SS or OF is usually good, but we have enough of those and especially so between 17-20 yrs old.   

Exactly. Meyer's and Hancock are my top choice at 10, after that i would not mind us rolling the dice and taking a chance on either Kelley or Abel, preferably Abel. Look there still are a good amount of college pitcher around the 3rd round, that have the mid of the rotation upside.  

Preferably, i would like us to take Abel. I have trust in our development system, Eppler might not be the best at free agents signing, but he knows how to develop (Sandoval, Canning, Robles...etc). Than look for a college pitcher in the 3rd round. 2 guys that i've kept an eye on are; 

jared Shuster: 6'3 lefty with a plus change, 90-94 Fb, quality slider, has shown improved command. 

Sam Weathery: another big lefty that needs to improve his command. 

There are still a few other guys that we could get in the 3rd round that can be solid starters.

 

37 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

The guys on MLB Network the other day were drooling over Detmers. They said don't sell him short because of his 91-92, 94 MPH fastball because his command is nearly an 80 grade and his other three offerings are plus pitches. 

I've heard/read Mixed report about Detmers. The one player that i keep on Comparing Detmers is to Heaney. Similar velo, solid pitching arsenal, both relies on deception, but Detmers will probably be more healthier (knock on wood).I  Definitely would want a pitcher of this type, but not as the 10th pick, maybe the lates 1st or 2nd round.   He just does bring the same excitement as a few other guys. 

[jsnpritchett]

40 minutes ago, Lou said:

Best post of the thread. 

Generally agree--though Buehler debuted in Sept 2017, not 2018, so just a little over 2 years after he was drafted.  The overall point still stands, though.

[SoWhat]

59 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

I wouldn't say ugh! Detmers is pretty damn good.

Here's a comparison between Detmers and Crochet. 

Fastball: This is likely the biggest gap between the two, with Crochet having double-plus fastball potential with a heater that explodes out of his hand and gets up 100 mph at its best. That is high-end fastball velocity from a lefthander that is seldom seen. Former South Florida lefty Shane McClanahan, now in the Rays’ system, also hit 100 mph prior to the 2018 draft. Detmers has much fringier fastball velocity and typically sits in the low 90s. EDGE: Crochet

Breaking Balls: Consistency with a breaking ball gives Detmers the edge here. His easy plus curveball has big depth and shape, and while Crochet’s slider has plus potential as well, he gets to those 60-grade pitches less frequently than Detmers. The big break and low-70s velocity on Detmers’ curve give him a unique look. EDGE: Detmers

Changeup: Scouts have said both Detmers and Crochet have changeups that show above-average potential, so this category is a push. EDGE: Draw

Control: While Crochet wins by a wide margin in the fastball category, Detmers is the clear favorite here and stacks up well against every other pitcher in the nation. He has a long track record of throwing strikes and walked fewer than 2.5 batters per nine innings in 2019 and 2020. Double-plus control isn’t a stretch for Detmers. EDGE: Detmers

X Factor: Another key difference between the two southpaws is rotation track record. Detmers has 25 starts and impressive performance in the Atlantic Coast Conference on his résumé, in addition to a strong summer with USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team in 2019. He also earns plaudits for his competitive makeup. Meanwhile, Crochet has just 13 college starts and most of those came as a freshman and sophomore, when he made more relief appearances than starts overall. EDGE: Detmers

Scout's take on Detmers: “He’s going to pitch as long as he wants to . . . Huge courage, huge compete tool, very unaffected by any environment. Strike-thrower, makes big pitches, not scared . . . I don’t even look at his stuff—they don’t hit him."

Scout's take on Crochet: “His fastball is absolutely electric . . . Big, tall lefty with some angle on it. It was 95-96 (mph) every pitch with some action on it . . . His fastball is absolutely explosive."

I’d have no problem taking Detmer if he was a later selection. With the 10th pick, I’d rather see them draft a high ceiling player instead of a middle of the rotation arm. 

[Inside Pitch]

22 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

I  Definitely would want a pitcher of this type, but not as the 10th pick, maybe the lates 1st or 2nd round.   He just does bring the same excitement as a few other guys. 

Know what the average career WAR for the 10th pick overall is?  5.2.  Obviously we would like to strike gold like the Giants did with Lincecum or Madbum (10th overall picks), but even a legit number three would be a huge get for most teams.

I've already gone on record as wanting an upside guy but, if Detmers is the lock to be a mid rotation guy that people are making him out to be I wouldn't really lose sleep over it.  Given they don't have a 2nd rounder and there are only 5 rounds total, that sure thing may never be more valuable..

 

[greginpsca]

Mickey Calloway  stresses throwing strikes. Detmers throws strikes. If Mickey has any influence in this, i would say he would want Detmers. And the org needs strike throwers, not nibblers.

[mmc]

 

[Lou]

Holy crap, the Tigers only won 47 games last year. 

TigersWin must be a madhouse.

[m0nkey]

This thread is always one of my favorites during the year, because we all act like we knew these people's names a couple of weeks ago.

[mmc]

Why was he announced as a 3B?

[Lou]

1 minute ago, m0nkey said:

This thread is always one of my favorites during the year, because we all act like we knew these people's names a couple of weeks ago.

I know Mitchell 

[Lou]

2 minutes ago, mymerlincat said:

Why was he announced as a 3B?

He didn't want to be compared to the vastly superior C.J. Cron

[T.G.]

3 minutes ago, m0nkey said:

This thread is always one of my favorites during the year, because we all act like we knew these people's names a couple of weeks ago.

Let alone seen them play...

[mmc]

Kjerstad at 2?  WTF

[jsnpritchett]

Kjerstad is the 2nd pick.  LOL at the draft projections.

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, mymerlincat said:

Kjerstad at 2?  WTF

They also have 30 and 39 I think, they can go under-slot here to spend bigger there.

[Stradling]

Wow, so they went with the bat that projects, I guess.  

[SoWhat]

Bruh. Orioles............

[Vlad27Trout27]

holy!! this changes the draft.

[Chuck]

1 minute ago, totdprods said:

They also have 30 and 39 I think, they can go under-slot here to spend bigger there.

Kjerstad has a great track record and big time power. You're right, in a pitcher heavy draft it was smart of them to get a good bat here as they can get some arms later.