Jobs and Economic Impact

[wopphil]

Sorry if this has been addressed in other threads, but I felt it warranted its own thread.
 

What are you guys seeing/experiencing with respect to matters of jobs and economics at the moment? I realize many are focused on the stock market, but I think that is of minor concern at the moment. Massive job loss is coming, and coming soon, and I think It will impact every industry and every person.
 

Some of my clients have, in a matter of just days, gone from asking advice on providing sick leave and dealing with sick employees, to asking about layoffs. And we are just days into this thing. 

[Jason]

No doubt it's going to be terrible. The service industry is going to get hit the hardest

[Adam]

Gonna blow

[Adam]

@wopphil get back to that twat that is suing me please

[the dude abides]

Will be considerably worse than 2008-2009.  Likely the worst we'll see in our lives.

[T.G.]

The layers run deep for sure.  It's hard to grasp the magnitude of it all.

[Adam]

A month ago Trump was a lock for reelection. Not so much atm

[Taylor]

I feel very, very privileged to work in a "white collar" communications job, so I'll continue to be able to work and receive a paycheck.

I'm extremely lucky, but I recognize that millions of others won't be.

[Adam]

This is either going to be amazingly good financially for me/our company or devastating. I don't see a lot in the middle

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

Less than a year ago 58% of people surveyed had less than $1,000 in savings for an emergency while almost half of those had $0.  Even if all of those people got new jobs, raises, cut expenses or whatever the reality is over the last 10 months they wouldn't save up months worth of living expenses and we can bet most didn't add to their savings.  There's nothing like this situation in any of our lifetimes to even use as a measuring stick.  The virus itself is one unknown and from that we get the unknown of how long this plays out and when we start to get back to some kind of normalcy.  My wife and I have jobs that aren't going anywhere and I realize how lucky we are because too many people can't say that in this situation.  Restaurants, bars, cruises, airlines, retailers and so on which employ a lot of people are going to get hammered.    

[katrinab]

i am lucky enough to work for city government so if i have to stay home from work, i will still get paid. i feel for the people who could lose their jobs. this is why we have to support local and small businesses 

[AngelsLongBall]

Manufacturing and distribution company with just under 50 employees in the construction sector.  I can't really have people outside of some of the corporate duties work from home and also expect to maintain normal receivables and payables.  I'm definitely concerned what the next 15-30 days holds.  We don't have deep enough pockets to pay sustained sick leave, not to mention any economic hangover that comes with it

[Adam]

Newsome is going to lock down california by tomorrow at midnight. that isn't going to be good

[Taylor]

4 minutes ago, Catwhoshatinthehat said:

Less than a year ago 58% of people surveyed had less than $1,000 in savings for an emergency while almost half of those had $0.  Even if all of those people got new jobs, raises, cut expenses or whatever the reality is over the last 10 months they wouldn't save up months worth of living expenses and we can bet most didn't add to their savings.  There's nothing like this situation in any of our lifetimes to even use as a measuring stick.  The virus itself is one unknown and from that we get the unknown of how long this plays out and when we start to get back to some kind of normalcy.  My wife and I have jobs that aren't going anywhere and I realize how lucky we are because too many people can't say that in this situation.  Restaurants, bars, cruises, airlines, retailers and so on which employ a lot of people are going to get hammered.    

Credit card companies are going to start increasing limits and offering reduced interest rates. People who have no choice will fall for it and incurring thousands of more dollars of debt.

[Don]

I think this will get pretty bad in the short term, but I’m hopeful for a long term recovery. I’m interested to see how this might reshape the roll of government in relation to your average wage earner. Right now, everything is fine for me; but I’d imagine the ripple effects of a major economic downturn would hit my industry/company eventually.

[Jason]

1 hour ago, the dude abides said:

Will be considerably worse than 2008-2009.  Likely the worst we'll see in our lives.

Without a doubt. This is an historical, unprecedented, event so it is reasonable to assume it will be bad

[Tank]

I think I'll be okay. we're on spring break for this week and next but are going to set up online learning during this time so we can continue doing school. I'll be okay as long as parents continue to pay tuition.

feeling sorry for those in service industries who are going to feel the brunt of all of this.

[mtangelsfan]

2 hours ago, Adam said:

Gonna blow

Your business should boom dude

[gotbeer]

Well chicken little of the panic is going to win. 

It's going to be a cascading effect.  Pretty much the service industry is going to be screwed.  Owners and workers.  Rent is still going to be due even if evictions are halted.  You can't afford one months rent, well, it isn't going to help if you get a few months more rent piled on, even if they can't evict right now.  And that doesn't include the CC bills, and payday loans you took out to get through this long layoff from work.  You will be in a hole you an't get out of.  Same with businesses.  Rent is still due, and you have zero income coming in.  For the restaurants, they will have to deal with spoilage of their goods, and having to restock.  I hear of some estimates that 25% of restaurants and businesses will not reopen if this is prolonged.  That's a lot of unemployed people.  

For those that are in government jobs, you are just biding your time.  You may get paid now.  But there is no tax revenue coming in.  If this continues for months, that means no one is working so no income tax, everyone is on lockdown and nothing is open so no sales tax, no one is earning any income so people won't be able to pay property taxes.  This is going to be severe deficits on local and state budgets, and will probably mean severe cuts once all the dust settles.  Oh, and did I forget to mention that most pensions, especially the California government pensions are tied to the stock market?  

The good news is, if panic doesn't win out, which it will so the above will come true, this should be over by the weekend.  Those two drug companies I linked in the COVID thread don't have a cure.  But they have a drug that was made for Ebola is treating the respiratory issues that are killing people.  The respiratory issues go away in a few days after using the drug.  Again, not a cure, but if you can lessen the death part of this panic, it'll go back to this is just like the flu.  Most all People can get back to work, economy can start back up, and we can live our lives again.

But it won't, so I'll be in my fort.

[Crampknees]

This is already nothing I have seen and is only going to get worse.  There is one person who needs to be let go immediately.  Watch him today saying how he called it a pandemic before anyone else.  How long can people allow themselves to be grifted while people lose their livelihood or lives.  It is time he be quarantined for good. 

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/business/economy-coronavirus-1-million-jobs-kevin-hassett/index.html

[St1ck]

10 minutes ago, Catwhoshatinthehat said:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/business/economy-coronavirus-1-million-jobs-kevin-hassett/index.html

Holy crap

[wopphil]

It’s gonna be far more than a million. I spent the better part of my day counseling clients on terminations/layoffs. This is going to be devastating to the country if it lasts more than a month or so. 

[Angelsjunky]

It is going to be bad. The government is going to have to institute some kind of UBI, at least for a couple months, just to feed people. Possible rent freeze and other stuff.

I just talked to a person at Whole Foods -  they're hanging in there, but essentially in constant danger of infection. Good thing Jeff Bezos wants them to share their PTO to protect his $3k+ per second earnings. What a humanitarian.

[Taylor]

The people who have billions of dollars should pay the salaries of those who won't be making any money.