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2020 Fearless Predictions


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Its that time of year. Sorta. The rules: Make some predictions that you could see coming to pass, but are less likely than average. In other words, it isn't "fearless" if it is probable; no "Trout pro

Max Stassi will bat .320

I see you assholes have already started the Upton hate because you're fucking dumb asshole bitches. You guys want a platoon in LF again? That worked out well.  What's sad is if he puts up an

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1 hour ago, Hubs said:

850 is low. That's less than 5 1/3 IP average. Of the 11 teams between 880 and 941, the vast majority were likely AL teams.

Also in regards to being last, that is absolutely because of the opener. I have the primary pitcher and the starters at 779.1 with a 4.78 IP per start (or primary). That is a lot closer to what we got. I checked that stat right after the season, and I'm counting someone twice (I have 163 games started including the primary pitchers), that's why I didn't post it, but I cant find the error...but it's close..

That means that if they don't use the opener, they'd just be asking for say 80 more innings? They signed two guys who have regularly pitched 80-90 innings better than our best starter in terms of innings. I expect all of the 7 guys I expect to start games to get more than 95.1 IP (which is the most from any starter last season). Some will get vastly more (Heaney, Bundy, Teheran), some will get half again (Canning, Sandoval) and some will get slightly more (Ohtani). Pena I think also tops that number because he got nearly that last year in his 7 starts and 14 primary appearances.

I expect Ohtani to get at least 18 starts, Bundy, Teheran, Canning, and Heaney to get at least 27, and Pena and Sandoval to get at least 11 each. That leaves around 14, which should go to the top 3 and Ohtani, but some may go to Barria as well.

 

Thanks for providing the data I’d been looking for. I agree that we’ll be able to get more starts from our better pitchers this season but you still only have 162 games to amass those innings. We have a plethora of guys who will be able to contribute quality innings.

There were 5 AL teams in the top 15 and 9 AL teams in the bottom 10. Bundy and Teheran averaged 5 1/3 IP per start last season so I’m not sure who we’re getting 7 inning starts from to boost the average.

i think we have good pitching depth and we should be able to get a lot of starts from the top 8 guys we have but to boost the IP, starters have to go deeper in games, it’s not necessarily a bad thing but we don’t have guys that are going to throw 7 innings each start.

Last season, we had issues getting starts out of the guys we had because there were constant injuries. This year, I think, we’ll have the starts covered but the biggest area to improve from the rotation will be having them pitch deeper into games.

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1 hour ago, Hubs said:

850 is low. That's less than 5 1/3 IP average. Of the 11 teams between 880 and 941, the vast majority were likely AL teams.

Also in regards to being last, that is absolutely because of the opener. I have the primary pitcher and the starters at 779.1 with a 4.78 IP per start (or primary). That is a lot closer to what we got. I checked that stat right after the season, and I'm counting someone twice (I have 163 games started including the primary pitchers), that's why I didn't post it, but I cant find the error...but it's close..

That means that if they don't use the opener, they'd just be asking for say 80 more innings? They signed two guys who have regularly pitched 80-90 innings better than our best starter in terms of innings. I expect all of the 7 guys I expect to start games to get more than 95.1 IP (which is the most from any starter last season). Some will get vastly more (Heaney, Bundy, Teheran), some will get half again (Canning, Sandoval) and some will get slightly more (Ohtani). Pena I think also tops that number because he got nearly that last year in his 7 starts and 14 primary appearances.

I expect Ohtani to get at least 18 starts, Bundy, Teheran, Canning, and Heaney to get at least 27, and Pena and Sandoval to get at least 11 each. That leaves around 14, which should go to the top 3 and Ohtani, but some may go to Barria as well.

 

total innings for a starter is a consequence of the number of innings per start.   you can't just add up total innings.  I agree that the primary pitcher for the halos pitched about 770 innings last year.  I think 850 ip which would be an increase of half an inning per start is a very reasonable expectation and unlikely to be any more than that. 

giving up only 700 runs would put our pitching staff in the top 5.  750 runs would put us middle of the pack.  

I think our offense could be electric and score close to 900 so I think 890 is still a good optimistic number.  Even if we give up 750 runs that's still a differential of 140 and would put the team close to 95 wins.  Again, pretty darn optimistic but doable.  

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my fearless 5:  

1.  Heaney is an all-star

2.  Matt Thaiss has a breakout season.  .840 ops with solid 1b defense.  

3.  Matt Andriese will be a key component to the pitching staff with near 100ip and a sub 3 era.  

4.  Brian Goodwin will struggle early on and lose at bats to Fletcher.  

5.  Just before the season starts, Albert will announce that this will be his final year.  

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15 hours ago, Dochalo said:

total innings for a starter is a consequence of the number of innings per start.   you can't just add up total innings.  I agree that the primary pitcher for the halos pitched about 770 innings last year.  I think 850 ip which would be an increase of half an inning per start is a very reasonable expectation and unlikely to be any more than that. 

giving up only 700 runs would put our pitching staff in the top 5.  750 runs would put us middle of the pack.  

I think our offense could be electric and score close to 900 so I think 890 is still a good optimistic number.  Even if we give up 750 runs that's still a differential of 140 and would put the team close to 95 wins.  Again, pretty darn optimistic but doable.  

I agree with the first statement. 770 innings is 4.75 innings per start (or primary). That means more guys are pulled in the 5th inning than the 6th. Ausmus had a quick hook, and with the disastrous pitching coach that was Doug White, I understand.

That's extremely low. 977 (my original fearless projection) is 6.1 which may be a little high.

Yet Callaway's staffs in Cleveland in averaged 949.1 IP per season. And in NY, averaged just shy of 928.

They also faced hitters a third (and fourth) time way more than the Angels did in 2019. Which leads to more innings.

Callaway is the teams biggest pitching acquisition.

 

 

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He averaged 5.87 innings in 808 games started with his staffs in Cleveland and 5.73 in his two years in New York.

Averaging 5.87 x 162 = 951 IP. Averaging 5.73 would be 928.1.

If this team can even give him 900 IP out of the starters, and say 4.00 ERA in those starts, (and with our excellent defense across the diamond, I do not expect very many unearned runs...) They'd be at 400 ER and say 417 R in their starts. The same basic pen as last year, at their optimum performance, because last year was injuries and overwork, would likely come in around the same as the starters so say 4.00 ERA in 558 IP.  248 ER and say 257 R total, equals 674 runs. That would be nearly 200 runs less than last season, and would carry the team into the playoffs.

 

 

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On 2/19/2020 at 8:28 PM, RendZone said:

Fangraphs comparing Justin Upton to Mark Whiten is fairly accurate. 

@Taylor?

Zips, and it's a single season projection.   You know the top three similarity scores for Justin Upton through age 31?   This is for actual production

  1. Reggie Jackson (909.9) *
  2. Dale Murphy (904.2)
  3. Carl Yastrzemski (904.2) *

Two of those guys are HOFers...  The other a two time MVP.

 

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1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

Zips, and it's a single season projection.   You know the top three similarity scores for Justin Upton through age 31?   This is for actual production

  1. Reggie Jackson (909.9) *
  2. Dale Murphy (904.2)
  3. Carl Yastrzemski (904.2) *

Two of those guys are HOFers...  The other a two time MVP.

 

Well projections are all BS anyway. The only thing that counts is what actually happens on the field. In reality what Justin Turner said is true. Championships define careers. It’s time for many of the players on this team to start defining their careers. Projections are all a fallacy. What they do in real time is all that matters. 

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10 minutes ago, RendZone said:

Well projections are all BS anyway. The only thing that counts is what actually happens on the field. In reality what Justin Turner said is true. Championships define careers. It’s time for many of the players on this team to start defining their careers. Projections are all a fallacy. What they do in real time is all that matters. 

Projections are educated guesses based on historical trends for similar players -- a guy who put up a mediocre season at age 31 coming off injuries is going to see his comps tank a bit -- it's the nature of the process. 

Understanding how those projections are tabulated and understanding that most systems don't really differentiate between a drop off due to injury .vs a loss of skill makes a projection like his easier to swallow.    That's no to say he will be totally fine.  There were things in his game last year that bear watching and may be indications of coming decline but, the same can be said of Mike Trout.... so, it is what it is... and yeah... ultimately it will come down to what they actually produce on the field...   What we do know is that for his career through age 31 Justin Upton's personal body of work "on the field" most resembles that of Reggie Jackson's.   

As far as Championships defining careers goes...   Ted Williams never won a ring, Buddy Biancalana and Benji Gil did.   Nobody outside of Chris Russo types would argue he was less of a player because he failed to win a ring.

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15 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

What we do know is that for his career through age 31 Justin Upton's personal body of work "on the field" most resembles that of Reggie Jackson's.   

Reggie Jackson was part of five championship teams. Jeter has five rings. They were both terrific postseason performers. The body of work comparisons stop at the regular season. Jackson played in 77 postseason games, Jeter 158 and Upton has played in 15. 

Both Jeter and Jackson have had much more impactful baseball careers than Upton. 

MLB is about making the postseason and winning. Mike Trout consistently mentions that. Ted Williams was one of the greatest hitters in MLB history but is also a guy that’s remembered for his lack of postseasons and his zero rings. 

The World Series is the most magical, exciting baseball ever played because it’s on the big stage. It’s career defining. It’s time to start defining and that begins tomorrow in Tempe. 

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8 hours ago, RendZone said:

Reggie Jackson was part of five championship teams. Jeter has five rings. They were both terrific postseason performers. The body of work comparisons stop at the regular season. Jackson played in 77 postseason games, Jeter 158 and Upton has played in 15. 

I know you think you are making this fantastic point but you aren't -- you're missing the obvious because you're  wanting to push your insipid narratives.   

Those guys won rings -- why???  because, they played on great teams...    The list of scrubs that won rings is long and undistinguished.   Mike Trout is a better player than either Jeter or Reggie Jackson and he's played in 3 postseason games  -- all of them losses, "Mad Clod."

8 hours ago, RendZone said:

Both Jeter and Jackson have had much more impactful baseball careers than Upton. 

Who said otherwise? 

Doesn't change the fact that through age 31 Upton's most similar player is Reggie Jackson.  I know this pains you as much as you have tried to talk shit about Upton since day one -- but it's a hard fact you'll just have to accept.  It doesn't actually mean he's as good as Reggie but it does tell you a little something about how much better he's been than you've been willing to admit.

8 hours ago, RendZone said:

MLB is about making the postseason and winning. Mike Trout consistently mentions that. Ted Williams was one of the greatest hitters in MLB history but is also a guy that’s remembered for his lack of postseasons and his zero rings. 

Rhetoric...   Mike Trout often uses figures of speech.

Mike Trout wants to win..  every player wants to win -- do you think that his failing to have won a ring makes Trout feel like he's accomplished nothing or he's a lesser player?  As far as Williams goes, the dude is remembered as possibly the greatest hitter of all time.  first last and always..    

8 hours ago, RendZone said:

The World Series is the most magical, exciting baseball ever played because it’s on the big stage. It’s career defining. 

Congrats on your new narrative -- looking forward to seeing you repeat it anytime an Angel does something noteworthy and you feel the need to devalue it by talking about the lack of a ring.  

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1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

I know you think you are making this fantastic point but you aren't -- you're missing the obvious because you're  wanting to push your insipid narratives.   

Those guys won rings -- why???  because, they played on great teams...    The list of scrubs that won rings is long and undistinguished.   Mike Trout is a better player than either Jeter or Reggie Jackson and he's played in 3 postseason games  -- all of them losses, "Mad Clod."

Who said otherwise? 

Doesn't change the fact that through age 31 Upton's most similar player is Reggie Jackson.  I know this pains you as much as you have tried to talk shit about Upton since day one -- but it's a hard fact you'll just have to accept.  It doesn't actually mean he's as good as Reggie but it does tell you a little something about how much better he's been than you've been willing to admit.

Rhetoric...   Mike Trout often uses figures of speech.

Mike Trout wants to win..  every player wants to win -- do you think that his failing to have won a ring makes Trout feel like he's accomplished nothing or he's a lesser player?  As far as Williams goes, the dude is remembered as possibly the greatest hitter of all time.  first last and always..    

Congrats on your new narrative -- looking forward to seeing you repeat it anytime an Angel does something noteworthy and you feel the need to devalue it by talking about the lack of a ring.  

I know many have preached to just ignore him but imagine how many IP directed massacres we would miss if he held to that?  

it's like asking prime Mike Tyson not to step in the ring with a lesser opponent.  F that.  I'm payin' $49.95 for that shit and I'm inviting my friends over to watch even though I know it'll last all of 30 seconds.  

did you try the crab dip?  I used jumbo lump.  

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10 hours ago, RendZone said:

Reggie Jackson was part of five championship teams. Jeter has five rings. They were both terrific postseason performers. The body of work comparisons stop at the regular season. Jackson played in 77 postseason games, Jeter 158 and Upton has played in 15. 

Both Jeter and Jackson have had much more impactful baseball careers than Upton. 

MLB is about making the postseason and winning. Mike Trout consistently mentions that. Ted Williams was one of the greatest hitters in MLB history but is also a guy that’s remembered for his lack of postseasons and his zero rings. 

The World Series is the most magical, exciting baseball ever played because it’s on the big stage. It’s career defining. It’s time to start defining and that begins tomorrow in Tempe. 

I think Ted Williams is remembered more as a great hitter and patriot. A perspective considering playing in a World Series as the only way to validate a player's career is misguided. Players play MLB because they can. Everything else is bullshit fan talk.

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