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2020 Fearless Predictions


Angelsjunky

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Its that time of year. Sorta. The rules: Make some predictions that you could see coming to pass, but are less likely than average. In other words, it isn't "fearless" if it is probable; no "Trout produces 8+ WAR" or "Pujols has a sub .800 OPS." The idea is to make less-than-likely predictions that you  think could sneak up on us and surprise. Try for five, but any number is good.

I'll start:

1. Brandon Marsh has more major league PA than Jo Adell. Again, not probable, but there's a distinct path by which this could happen. Some consider Marsh a more polished hitter due to his superior plate discipline and contact. Adell could struggle to make contact and whiff a lot, and maybe Marsh--who also happens to be a better defender--adjusts more quickly.

2. Patrick Sandoval has a better ERA than Griffin Canning. Again, I don't think this will happen but I can see how it might. Canning has more u20pside, but Sandoval seems to have advance pitchability.

3. Jose Suarez surprises and earns a place on the pitching staff by  mid-season. Ignore his 2019  numbers - he's got better stuff than Barria or Sandoval and will figure it out. Maybe he starts, or maybe he's a swingman or some hybrid, but the prediciton is that he's a fixture on the staff in some way  by the All-Star Break.

4. This is Andrelton Simmons' Last Year as an Angel. In this scenario, the aging is real and Rengifo takes a step forward and stakes his claim as the shortstop of the future.

5. Albert Pujols is not the leader in 1B starts. This is only fearless  because of Pujols' "Proven Veteran" cred, but I think there's a good chance that one of the other guys--Matt Thaiss, Jared Walsh, or Taylor Ward (in that order of probability)--hits well enough to earn the lion's share of starts at 1B.

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1.) Angels will win the AL West. I'm going all in on this. I seriously hope everywhere the Astros go, trashcans follow and they are heckled incessantly all throughout the season.

2.) 3 Starting pitchers will have ERA's below 4.00. I'm saying Ohtani, Teheran, and Canning.

3.) David Fletcher will be an AL All Star. Along with Trout, Rendon, and Ohtani.

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It's crazy the pessimism on fearless predictions. Like why predict something bad? I seriously wonder why you all are fans if you can't be optimists.

That being said:

1) Ohtani finishes 3rd among the starters in ERA, behind Bundy and Canning. But only because Canning manages a 2.95 and Bundy a 3.25. Ohtani and his 3.37 is third. Teheran finishes fourth at 3.81, and Heaney ends up at a solid 3.994. Sandoval and Pena pitch a lot, (22 games combined) though, and keep all the starters from having ERA's under 4 as they will finish around 4.5.

The rotation allows 393 ER from it's starters in 977 innings pitched for a 3.62 ERA.

2) At least Two Relievers pitch 70 innings, two pitch more than 60, and two more pitch 50. Two guys as swingmen also get 35 innings out of the pen. They allow 215 earned runs in 490 innings pitched. The bullpen ERA is just south of 4.

This leads the team to allow 609 ER, and 637 total runs.

3) Team scores 889 runs. Leads the league in run differential.

4) Trout hits 50 HR and 50 2B. His OPS is the highest in the league at 1.201.

5) Rendon also finished with a 1.000 OPS, Upton finishes north of .900, while Adell, Simmons, Pujols, Castro, and either Walsh or Thaiss finish north of .800. Fletcher finishes just shy of .800 at .790 as does Goodwin.

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3 hours ago, Hubs said:

It's crazy the pessimism on fearless predictions. Like why predict something bad? I seriously wonder why you all are fans if you can't be optimists.

That being said:

1) Ohtani finishes 3rd among the starters in ERA, behind Bundy and Canning. But only because Canning manages a 2.95 and Bundy a 3.25. Ohtani and his 3.37 is third. Teheran finishes fourth at 3.81, and Heaney ends up at a solid 3.994. Sandoval and Pena pitch a lot, (22 games combined) though, and keep all the starters from having ERA's under 4 as they will finish around 4.5.

The rotation allows 393 ER from it's starters in 977 innings pitched for a 3.62 ERA.

2) At least Two Relievers pitch 70 innings, two pitch more than 60, and two more pitch 50. Two guys as swingmen also get 35 innings out of the pen. They allow 215 earned runs in 490 innings pitched. The bullpen ERA is just south of 4.

This leads the team to allow 609 ER, and 637 total runs.

3) Team scores 889 runs. Leads the league in run differential.

4) Trout hits 50 HR and 50 2B. His OPS is the highest in the league at 1.201.

5) Rendon also finished with a 1.000 OPS, Upton finishes north of .900, while Adell, Simmons, Pujols, Castro, and either Walsh or Thaiss finish north of .800. Fletcher finishes just shy of .800 at .790 as does Goodwin.

in the last three years, there has been only a single instance of a starting rotation throwing more than 977 innings.  

a 280 run different would translate into about 110 wins.  

AW's response if your predictions happen:  "we need bullpen help" 

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9 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

in the last three years, there has been only a single instance of a starting rotation throwing more than 977 innings.  

a 280 run different would translate into about 110 wins.  

AW's response if your predictions happen:  "we need bullpen help" 

To be fair it's the top 7 starters, not just the rotation, and I even now think I include Jaime Barria as the 8th guy in there too. And even if you drop the era down to say 3.75 from the starters, because Jaime Barria gets 7 starts and 37 innings, say, it's still around 623 ER, and 651 total runs, which makes the differential at 238, but that's still around 105 wins.

My original numbers is 107 win season, cuz the differential was actually 252, not 280. (ER vs. R).

And I guess 977 was a bit optimistic, I'll revise that to 937, out of the 8 guys I think will start this season. I don't see the Angels pulling their starter as often in the 6th with Maddon and Callaway. That will bring the ER down to 390 say, from 407 from the starters (incl. Barria), but keeping the 215 over the now close to 525 IP, means that the team only would give up 605 ER, and have a BP ERA at 3.69 and a starting ERA at 3.75. That would likely lead the league. 

I originally didn't include UnEarned Runs from the Pen, so add those 20 or so runs too.

Still, I'd expect 650 or so total runs. And maybe a few more scored. So a 250 Run differential.

 

 

 

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Only two teams had more IP from their starters last season, the Nationals and Mets. Here’s the top 5:

1. Mets 941.1

2. Nationals 938.2

3. Indians 930.1

4. Astros 907.1

5. Dodgers 893.2

6-11 were between 880 and 890. The Angels were dead last 20 innings behind the Rays at 680. It should probably be amended based on how often we used an opener last season (I’ve wanted to go back and see how many innings that would add to our “starters” but haven’t been bored enough to check). Getting up to 880 would be huge to help take pressure off the bullpen. The Giants were 16 at 849 IP so I think getting to 850 would be a good realistic goal.

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49 minutes ago, Drink More Yakult said:

Only two teams had more IP from their starters last season, the Nationals and Mets. Here’s the top 5:

1. Mets 941.1

2. Nationals 938.2

3. Indians 930.1

4. Astros 907.1

5. Dodgers 893.2

6-11 were between 880 and 890. The Angels were dead last 20 innings behind the Rays at 680. It should probably be amended based on how often we used an opener last season (I’ve wanted to go back and see how many innings that would add to our “starters” but haven’t been bored enough to check). Getting up to 880 would be huge to help take pressure off the bullpen. The Giants were 16 at 849 IP so I think getting to 850 would be a good realistic goal.

850 is low. That's less than 5 1/3 IP average. Of the 11 teams between 880 and 941, the vast majority were likely AL teams.

Also in regards to being last, that is absolutely because of the opener. I have the primary pitcher and the starters at 779.1 with a 4.78 IP per start (or primary). That is a lot closer to what we got. I checked that stat right after the season, and I'm counting someone twice (I have 163 games started including the primary pitchers), that's why I didn't post it, but I cant find the error...but it's close..

That means that if they don't use the opener, they'd just be asking for say 80 more innings? They signed two guys who have regularly pitched 80-90 innings better than our best starter in terms of innings. I expect all of the 7 guys I expect to start games to get more than 95.1 IP (which is the most from any starter last season). Some will get vastly more (Heaney, Bundy, Teheran), some will get half again (Canning, Sandoval) and some will get slightly more (Ohtani). Pena I think also tops that number because he got nearly that last year in his 7 starts and 14 primary appearances.

I expect Ohtani to get at least 18 starts, Bundy, Teheran, Canning, and Heaney to get at least 27, and Pena and Sandoval to get at least 11 each. That leaves around 14, which should go to the top 3 and Ohtani, but some may go to Barria as well.

 

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