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Pecota projected standings, 87 W and a WC.


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Sounds about right.  

It'll be fun to see where the Astros end up with all of this heat on them.  I think they're still a 95+ win team,  but I could also see things cratering spectacularly. 

They lost Cole, their two best starters (while both awesome) are almost 37, McCullers is coming off TJ, and their lineup won't have the benefit of knowing what pitches they'll be seeing anymore. They're the pariah of the league and will be heckled relentlessly in every away game.  

I'm hoping it turns into the perfect shitstorm of awfulness for them.

 

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17 hours ago, floplag said:

Not picking on you here, cause i agree with you, but its funny how everyone always just assumes the As are there but no one ever talks about or really seems to know why, they just.. will, lol.

They get overlooked by people still enamored by triple slash stats, but the projections always hold a more favorable opinion of them.  

Pecota liking the Angels chances is a good thing... They had them as a sub .500 team prior to the season and were very low on both Harvey and Cahill last year.

Here's to hoping they stay healthier than in years past.

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  • 4 months later...

Resurrecting a pre-COVID thread....

 

PECOTA predicting the Angels getting the 2nd WC

Trout/Rendon back to back

The delayed start of the season allowing for Ohtani and (possibly) Canning to be healthy enough to get starts right from the get-go, 

Replacing Harvey/Cahill with workhorse performances out of Bundy/Teheran

Simba in a short season contract year.

The short season and expanded rosters somewhat plays to the Angels pitching staff despite not overflowing with top end starters, especially if Maddon and Calloway can optimize use of the depth of the staff to dampen the injury wildfires of the past.   Also, Eppler may not be in the hot seat, but that chair isn't cool and comfy either.  Looking forward to a deal to give the rotation a real 1/2 punch towards trade deadline.  

Go Angels, Eff COVID and the Dogs!

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2 hours ago, nate said:

60/162 = .37.  87*.37=32 wins.  Should be enough for the playoffs.

I don't think it would be, unless they work out a deal for expanded playoffs.

Someone is going to set a pace that is crazy, like 41 or 42 wins. Just due to the nature of a shortened season. It's like 113 win pace over the 162, but in a short season, it will happen.

Division winners will be in the 36-38 win range with Wild Cards being in the 33-35 range.  35-25 is only 10 games over, which is not a lot.

Here's the updated PECOTA from 3/26/20

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

They have the best team at 103, which would be updated to a 38 win Dodgers team, but I'd tack on a few more, maybe the end up at 41 or 42.

They have the worst team at 62, which would equate to the Orioles winning 23 games. I can see them finishing with less than 20.

In the AL, they have the Astros winning 98, or 36 games in the shortened season. I think they're going to struggle this year with no trash cans, and the A's and Angels will both be better than the Astros.

 

 

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