While we wait....

[Wisconsin27 54]

While we anxiously wait to see if the Betts deal will go through, I can't help but wonder if we are ultimately going to be disappointed when the final details of our end of the trade comes to fruition.  Right now, we are led to believe we will acquire a 30+ home run guy, a young and proven starter, and a top 10 prospect in our organization.  And the primary piece in return, Rengifo, is a relatively unproven middle infielder. 

I understand the salary component of it.  But here is why I am preparing myself to be disappointed despite the tweets that claim we won't need to give up our top prospects.  The Dodger's GM isn't an idiot.  His job is to find the best available deal or deals he can.  In all of MLB, are we to think the best he can do for that return (salary, Rengifo, and a mid-level prospect from an average minor league system's club) is what has been proposed?

If this actually goes down, I have to think either Eppler took him to the woodshed or the Rengifo is being dramatically under-rated in the minds of most fans.  

In all honesty, if I hadn't been aware of the Joc/Pages component of all of this, I think I would have been elated to learn that Rengifo/mid-level/salary for Stripling would have been a win on it's own.  

I just can't fathom the idea that our prospect isn't going to be one that's going to lead to disappoint here, even understanding that you (typically?) have to give something to receive.

I am optimistic to a fault at time, but I just can't wrap my head around it.

 

 

[Pancake Bear 2,211]

Different organizations value a given player differently. The key is finding someone who values what you have more than you do and in turn possesses something you value in return. Apparently Friedman and co. value Rengifo as much or more than we do  

Reality is, though, no one knows how any of these players will turn out in regards to value. 

[Randy Gradishar 1,364]

Dodgers have never been the best team in baseball, while having by far the most resources. Meanwhile the Rays keep crushing it. So maybe that GM is an idiot.

[angelsnationtalk 843]

I think you're missing a key part here. Initial report was that it's a 3 for 3 swap. We'd give up Rengifo and 2 other prospects but now with the medicals on hold with the mega trade we might end up dealing a top 5 guy. 

Keep in mind the salary relief for Pederson is a big factor for the Dodgers as well which is why we probably don't need to give up as much. 

[Pancake Bear 2,211]

3 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

We'd give up Rengifo and 2 other prospects but now with the medicals on hold with the mega trade we might end up dealing a top 5 guy. 

Where was that reported? I haven’t seen that. And why would the hold on the other trade change our deal? All I’ve heard is the Angels deal is done pending the completion of the first. 

[totdprods 8,477]

1 hour ago, Wisconsin27 said:

Right now, we are led to believe we will acquire a 30+ home run guy, a young and proven starter, and a top 10 prospect in our organization.

Pederson has hit 30 HR once - as many as Calhoun has had and as many as most of the league seemingly did last season. 

Stripling is maybe a proven starter if you use the Angels ‘19 staff as a comparison. His max GS is 21 and IP is 122. Neither came last year.

Pages hit a ton of HR in an extreme hitter-friendly field like Jackson. Maybe it’s legit but more than likely pretty inflated. He’d be a Top 10 for us, but that’s not saying much when our Top 10 drops off significant after the Top 5.

There’s a LOT to like about these guys, but they have plenty of question mark too. And I still think the other prospect - or two - is gonna be someone who stings at first but ultimately was worth gambling with. Soriano, Knowles, Yan, Deveaux...

Edited February 7, 2020 by totdprods

[Drink More Yakult 113]

You should probably get really upset about it before all the details are out.

[angelsnationtalk 843]

5 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Where was that reported? I haven’t seen that. And why would the hold on the other trade change our deal? All I’ve heard is the Angels deal is done pending the completion of the first. 

https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1225096445998460929

 

[Lou 43,490]

8 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1225096445998460929

 

So where's the mention of us trading a top 5 prospect?

And Nightengale says we're getting JOE Pederson.

[angelsnationtalk 843]

1 minute ago, Lou said:

So where's the mention of us trading a top 5 prospect?

And Nightengale says we're getting JOE Pederson.

I was the one saying we could end up dealing a top 5 guy. Just a possible thought if maybe things change.

[Pancake Bear 2,211]

1 minute ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I was the one saying we could end up dealing a top 5 guy. Just a possible thought if maybe things change.

The deal hasn't changed. Boob has been getting details wrong all along. Various reports can’t agree whether we’re giving up one or two prospects or even getting one back. It’s just reporters being sloppy about reporting on prospects.

[Lou 43,490]

14 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I was the one saying we could end up dealing a top 5 guy. Just a possible thought if maybe things change.

Ok, but PB asked where that was being reported and you replied with the Twitter link.

All good 

[Duren, Duren 396]

I think there is too much momentum for all the teams in this trade for it to just fall apart. By the time the deals are agreed on, a lot of intensive work went on within each organization. Scouts, coaches, analytic experts, finance people and the GM and his inner circle. Possibly ownership reps as well. 

When the minutiae of all the moving parts were finally agreed to it must have felt like closure for all four teams.A big relief to get it done.

 Decisions were made, comfort levels with the exchanges was reached. Plans for integrating the new additions during spring training were under way. 

Doubtful any of them want to go back to the drawing board.

But if one of the original dominos falls, we could see some repercussions. One loose thread could lead to the unraveling of the nice, neat  package. 

Still, I think all the GMs will want to keep the key players in place. It's easier to tinker with prospects than established veterans.  

I still wonder why Renfigo seems to be the key return from the Angels. Not a position of need for the Dodgers. Not an elite prospect. Some tantalizing potential if everything works out perfectly for him.

You would have to think that Friedman would try to squeeze out a hidden gem from deeper in the Angels system. Not even the obvious top guys, but someone who their scouts are willing to gamble on. The Dodgers always pride themselves on scouting and development. I bet they would love to poach someone under The radar. 

If everything does fall apart there probably will be some deals just between two teams. Dodgers and Angels may put together something else with fewer players.

 

[Wisconsin27 54]

20 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Pederson has hit 30 HR once - as many as Calhoun has had and as many as most of the league seemingly did last season. 

Stripling is maybe a proven starter if you use the Angels ‘19 staff as a comparison. His max GS is 21 and IP is 122. Neither came last year.

Pages hit a ton of HR in an extreme hitter-friendly field like Jackson. Maybe it’s legit but more than likely pretty inflated. He’d be a Top 10 for us, but that’s not saying much when our Top 10 drops off significant after the Top 5.

There’s a LOT to like about these guys, but they have plenty of question mark too. And I still think the other prospect - or two - is gonna be someone who stings at first but ultimately was worth gambling with. Soriano, Knowles, Yan, Deveaux...

Totprods,

I respect the hell out of you and your insight.  Love reading your stuff here daily.

But I disagree with your premise.

Okay, Joc hit 30 homers once.  He also has hit over 25 in three years and is 27 years old.  Spin it as you will.

Stripling comes to us as no worse than a 3rd starter.  His remaining potential, despite being 30, suggests he could be a strong benefit to our current club as constructed.  Feel free to disagree.

Your comment about Pages is entirely accurate.  His high leg kick scares the hell out of me.  But your statement related to the "significant" drop off after #5 was truly my point.  

How are we to believe the BEST deal the Dodgers GM can muster with these (his) three is a deal centered around Rengifro, some cap relief that may teams can offer, and a prospect from a middle-of-the-road farm that rates below their top 5 despite the large drop off?

I really hope you are correct and we aren't disappointed.

 

 

 

[Wisconsin27 54]

27 minutes ago, Drink More Yakult said:

You should probably get really upset about it before all the details are out.

I'm not at all upset.  I am simply trying to suggest that this might not work out quite like we have been led to believe.  I hope I am wrong and Eppler kicks ass.

If/when it doesn't, I look forward to posters like yourself that will be quick to bitch and complain about how much we gave up after all the details are out, shocked that we got screwed and pissed at Eppler for giving up way too much.

[Drink More Yakult 113]

33 minutes ago, Wisconsin27 said:

I'm not at all upset.  I am simply trying to suggest that this might not work out quite like we have been led to believe.  I hope I am wrong and Eppler kicks ass.

If/when it doesn't, I look forward to posters like yourself that will be quick to bitch and complain about how much we gave up after all the details are out, shocked that we got screwed and pissed at Eppler for giving up way too much.

Giving up Adams is a fair deal. As long as we don’t give up Adell or Marsh, we come out on top.

[Dochalo 25,602]

trades are hard.  

they not only take a match of needs and players as well as a similar thought process in terms of player values, but it also takes timing.  Off loading 9m in salary would have been much easier 3 months ago and not a week before pitchers and catchers report.  

my guess is that this didn't form out of nowhere.  that Eppler had discussions with Friedman about acquiring Stripling centered around Rengifo and others but Eppler probably thought the price was too high.  Then the Betts trade happens and there is already some ground work so Andy calls Billy and tells him there's a way to get Stripling without giving up Sandoval or Marsh on top of it.  

The dogs probably value Rengifo more that some here realize.  The probably also realize that even though Joc is a nice player, he's essentially a very pricey platoon player and not many teams can take on 9m for a guy that can't play everyday.  

I agree that the prospect the halos give up in return is likely going to sting a little and that's where things even out a bit because it does seem that on the surface this deal is in our favor.  

Actually, one of my biggest concerns with how this is being drawn out is that someone else swoops in and offers the dogs a better deal for Pederson, Stripling and Pages.  I am not sure if there is some sort of code among GMs that once they agree to a deal they typically stick with it even if another team tries to swoop in.  

Or maybe it's just that the dogs really like Luis and the prospect they're getting.  One has to assume that the dogs did their due diligence on this by shopping that package to other teams so I favor that they just like the deal the Halos have to offer.   Don't discount the value of Rengifo even if he becomes an average everyday player with 6 years of control.  That's a lot of cost certainty and something that Friedman has shown to put a premium on in the past.  

I'll wait till the deal goes through though before I get too excited.   

  

[Lou 43,490]

21 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

The dogs probably value Rengifo more that some here realize

Well said 

[SoWhat 871]

I hope it isn’t CRod, Kochanowicz or Soriano 

[Lou 43,490]

I hope we get really good players and send them really crappy ones

[Glen 9,381]

1 hour ago, Lou said:

So where's the mention of us trading a top 5 prospect?

And Nightengale says we're getting JOE Pederson.

That's how little the Dodgers value Rengifo. They're giving us Joe instead of Joc.

[Lou 43,490]

2 minutes ago, Glen said:

That's how little the Dodgers value Rengifo. They're giving us Joe instead of Joc.

We should send then Joc Adell 

[Angel Oracle 13,466]

35 minutes ago, Lou said:

We should send then Joc Adell 

We should throw in Randy Marsh too.

[ukyah 3,310]

this thread sucks. i'm going back to the real one.

[Warfarin 2,130]

6 hours ago, Dochalo said:

 

The dogs probably value Rengifo more that some here realize.  The probably also realize that even though Joc is a nice player, he's essentially a very pricey platoon player and not many teams can take on 9m for a guy that can't play everyday.  

  

I think this is exactly it.  The Dodgers prioritize strong plate discipline and covet middle infielders with positional flexibility.  Per Fangraphs' scouting report of him last year..

"So judicious is Rengifo’s eye for the plate that if he were cloned 15 times and each clone forced to be an umpire, there might be a lot less talk of electronic strike zones. He identifies balls and strikes early in flight, and often relaxes before balls have even entered the catcher’s mitt."

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-31-prospects-los-angeles-angels/

The Dodgers will be obtaining a switch-hitting, speedy middle infielder who will be entering his age 23 season with 6 years of control left.  I think Rengifo, if he gets regular playing time, can be a 3 WAR player moving forward.  That's pretty valuable, and I'm guessing the Dodgers figure they can probably tweak his swing to help him generate a bit more pop, too.

I think we "win" the trade, but I do think the Dodgers are getting back a valuable guy, too.