Pederson/Stripling deal is DEAD. MOVE ON.

[Chuck]

Dodgers might be betting on Ross Stripling’s improvement

It’s 2020 and the Dodgers have still just made one offseason acquisition. Maybe that’s all that’s coming this offseason even though there’s still plenty of time until Opening Day.

But with the loss of Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill, and also finishing second in the Gerrit Cole sweepstakes, it appears they might be getting ready to lean on some of their pitching depth from years past (Ross Stripling, Julio Urias) and a couple of prospects (Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May). So, let’s take a look at Mr. Stripling.

——

Stripling, 30, was an All-Star back in 2018 when he was one of the unsung heroes of that Dodger team in the first half. He finished the season with a career-high 122 innings and pitched to a 3.02 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 2.99 xFIP and a 22.7 K-BB%. Those are all really strong numbers for any non-ace pitcher. He pitched in just 90 2/3 innings last season, but was still solid: 3.47 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 3.58 xFIP, 19.7 K-BB%. He missed time due to a neck and bicep issue. He returned to the Dodgers late in the season and appears to be fully healthy for the 2020 season.

Looking at Stripling’s numbers, there are some interesting things to take note of.

Reverse Splits

Did you know Stripling pitches better against left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters? It’s true!

Split	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	wOBA	K-BB%	HR/9	LOB%
vs. LHH	190	2.51	3.34	3.27	.277	18.0	0.95	83.5
vs. RHH	197	4.48	3.85	3.70	.322	17.8	1.32	71.8

As you can see, he fares much better against lefties. It’s a little strange because he doesn’t seemingly have a true out-pitch, let alone a pitch that allows him to have better results against lefties. Coming up through the minors and early in his pro career, he was fastball-curveball-slider guy. His curveball was his best pitch and is still quite effective, but the change — no pun intended — came when he embraced his changeup.

Improved Changeup

In his rookie season (2016), Stripling threw just 157 changeups, good for a 9.96% usage rate. He threw it even less frequently in 2017 — 6.72 percent. It had always induced a fair number of whiffs, but he has upped the usage — and whiff rates — in the last two seasons.

Year	Usage%	Whiff%	wOBA
2016	9.96	14.01	.209
2017	6.72	14.47	.209
2018	10.98	17.75	.233
2019	14.68	18.40	.238

Sure, the wOBA has increased with more usage, but so have the whiffs. Still, a wOBA in the .230s against opposite-handed hitters is nothing to sneeze at. He now has more confidence in the pitch at the expense of his slider, which isn’t a bad thing.

Fewer Sliders

Stripling threw his slider 34.39 percent of the time in 2017. That number dipped to 26.17 percent during his All-Star campaign. Ever since ’17, when FanGraphs had it at 6.9 runs above average, it has been worth -0.5 runs above average over the last two seasons. Part of the problem is both-handed hitters are hitting it with more authority.

In his career, 14 of his 49 home runs allowed have come on the slider. Considering he has thrown his fastball (22 homers allowed) 951 more times in his career than his slider, that’s not a great endorsement of the pitch. Plus, it hasn’t really passed the eye test for me. It has more of a cutter shape rather than a traditional slider, and since the velocity separation between the fastball and slider isn’t terribly high, it’s easier for hitters to adjust to the slider than, say, the changeup, which has gotten better over the last couple seasons.

——

With the Dodgers potentially getting ready to lean more on Stripling, the fact that he has been consistently solid and has shown signs of improvement in specific areas could mean good things. Of course, the workload is going to be something to monitor, seeing as he has made 61.8 percent of his MLB appearances out of the bullpen. He has gotten to 100 or more innings just twice, so don’t expect him to be a 150-plus inning guy in 2020. That’s partly why some (me) are concerned about the Dodgers losing parts of their quality starting pitching depth. If injuries crop up or Stripling or the other young guys falter, that’s going to put a lot more pressure on Walker Buehler (no problem), a less-effective Clayton Kershaw and an enigmatic Kenta Maeda.

It wouldn’t surprise me if the Dodgers acquired some form of starting pitcher before the start of the season, only because of the quartet of Gonsolin, May, Stripling and Urias. But the fact that Stripling is a cerebral guy, who has embraced the data provided by the front office and has done everything he has been asked, leads me to believe he could be a quality starter for the Dodgers next season and for years to come. The fact that he handles lefties so well should behoove him going forward.

[m0nkey]

Craziest part of this is Bob Nightengale is first again. He’s had a pretty good offseason 

[DMVol]

3 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

The Angels aren't getting an ace this offseason.  Stripling would be their #2.

I'm ok with that....not sure if he's #2 or 3 or 4 but Teheran, Bundy and Stripling give us (potentially) innings and consistency we haven't had in awhile....Cole would have been nice but there just aren't many aces out there to be had....go for depth in the starting staff and build a really good everyday lineup....that isn't a bad plan.....cross fingers...

[Turd Ferguson]

1 minute ago, m0nkey said:

Craziest part of this is Bob Nightengale is first again. He’s had a pretty good offseason 

The craziest part is that Merlin wasn't first.

[angelsnationtalk]

I heard they're giving up Rengifo and two other prospects which leads me to believe it isn't any top prospects. Might be someone like Knowles/Deveaux and someone else. 

[UndertheHalo]

Money and control is a part of this guys.  Stripling and Joc are both way more expensive then Rengifo and both has way less control.  We aren’t trading a top 5 prospect in this deal.  

[Chuck]

Apparently Stripling had an arm injury that he was battling in the first half that eventually sent him to the IL. Upon his return he looked much better in the second half of last season.

[VariousCrap]

With a six man rotation, The Angels would only need what, 130-150 innings from Stripling?  Very doable with the bullpen they have.

[Tank]

6 hours ago, Lou said:

Why would the dodgers trade for Rengifo? 

because Utley retired?

[tdawg87]

I like Stripling. But I need to see what we gave up here.

[Capital_Dave]

I’m mystified by all of you who are calling Stripling a #3/#4 pitcher.  Have you looked at this guy’s stuff?  His stats?  His peripherals?  All he’s been missing is a rotation spot in a crowded Dodgers roster.  I think he’ll be a stud for us this year.  Plus, three more years of club control.  Great get.

[T.G.]

1 minute ago, tdawg87 said:

I like Stripping.

Of course you do.

[tdawg87]

1 minute ago, True Grich said:

Of course you do.

Meh. Low effort.

5/10

[Lou]

4 minutes ago, Tank said:

because Utley retired?

But they still have Lopes 

[Erstad Grit]

Stripling is faaaaaaaar better than the other names out there like boyd, happ, etc.

He'd easily be our 2/3. 

[Docwaukee]

Just now, Capital_Dave said:

I’m mystified by all of you who are calling Stripling a #3/#4 pitcher.  Have you looked at this guy’s stuff?  His stats?  His peripherals?  All he’s been missing is a rotation spot in a crowded Dodgers roster.  I think he’ll be a stud for us this year.  Great get.

I hope that's the case.  The guy has pitched 100.0, 74.1, 122.0, and 90.2 innings in each of the last four years.  The dogs are known for limiting exposure of certain pitchers to lineups after a second time through and they clearly did this with Stripling.  

He's a nice pitcher.  Hopefully he can be something like a Jake Odorizzi type for us.  That would be very nice.  

The only caveat is what we're giving up.  If it's anyone from our top 5 then I'm gonna be less excited.  

[mmc]

This move also gives us the option to trade one of our starters, like Heaney, in a deal for a TOR starter

[Angelsfan1984]

2 minutes ago, Lou said:

But they still have Lopes 

Now is that pronounced Low-ps or Low-pes

[tdawg87]

We've got 11 starting pitchers. Eppler is engaging Operation: Clean Peanut for this rotation.

[hangin n wangin]

Stripling is pretty damn solid, so I am happy we will be getting him. He's just really damn solid, regardless of role. The question is, what will we be giving up..

[angelinkc]

The gap between us and Houston is narrowing by the day!

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, gotbeer said:

Stripling is cheap.  $2.1 million for 2020.  And still 2 years of service time remaining.  Again, another reason why it doesn't make sense, if it's a salary dump.  

Three years service time remaining, only has a little over 3 years so far, per Baseball Reference.

[hangin n wangin]

Ohtani, Stripling, Teheran, Bundy, Heaney, Sandoval, Canning, Andreise.

That's a lot of solid pitching. Not high upside pitching (other than Ohtani) but it's a staff that should be able to keep us in games and it's enough depth to withstand some injuries or rest periods for the young guys.

[Angel Oracle]

38 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Adams I'm guessing. 

I started thinking this last night.     With Pages only being one level lower than Adams, it makes sense. 

[Angelsfan1984]

Just now, RBM said:

The Dodgers/Friedman are smart. I think the two prospects they get Jose Soriano and Hector Yan.

 

I can see Yan, but they actually need to fill a major league SP spot. Losing Ryu, Maeda and Stripling is a big blow and only getting back Price. I almost think someone like Barria is going or a Sandoval along with someone like Yan.